Ukraine War Watch Thread

[caltrek]

Boosting Ukraine’s Maneuver Capabilities Focus Of $3B U.S. Aid Package
by Howard Altman
January 6, 2023

Introduction:

(The Drive) Last month, Valery Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Army, told The Economist what was needed to restore Ukraine’s territory to its borders before Russia’s full-on invasion. Friday, the Pentagon took another partial step toward fulfilling those wishes with a new $3 billion aid package headlined by 50 M2A2-ODS Bradley Fighting Vehicles.

“I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources," Zaluzhny said back in December. "I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs [Infantry Fighting Vehicles], 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd.”

(See linked article below for Twitter feeds)

All told, the $2.85 billion Presidential Drawdown package includes no tanks, but among the Bradleys and Sea Sparrow missiles, more than 300 other vehicles are being donated, including 18 M109A6 Paladin 155mm self-propelled howitzers - another first for Ukraine. An additional 36 105mm towed howitzers are also on the list.

The Paladins "will provide greater protection and maneuverability than the towed howitzers previously provided," Laura Cooper, deputy assistant defense secretary for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia, told reporters including from The War Zone, during a Friday afternoon press briefing. The U.S. has previously provided 178 towed howitzers to Ukraine. The package also includes spare parts for the Bradleys, she said.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... d-package

[ibm9000]

Sorry...

Is he saying that with 300 tanks he is going to win the war? They have destroyed "thousands" of tanks but with 300 (more) tanks they are going to retake Crimea, really?


"...a right to prolong an unwinnable war to postpone defeat or, at the very worst, to lose only gracefully, covertly, slowly, at the cost of an uncounted number of lives, a toll on which they and the policy set no real limit."

No, but it could be applied, right? It's from the Pentagon Papers, a government following a policy.

[ibm9000]

Guys

Guy_s?, like plural?, really?

[caltrek]

Russia’s War in Ukraine Threatens Students Daily and Forces Teachers to Improvise
by Kristina Hook
January 9, 2023

Introduction:

(The Conversation) Svitlana Popova’s students didn’t realize she was leading their online math class while outside the charred remains of her home in Ukraine until they saw a news video about it on social media.

Her students were in their own difficult circumstances, too – seeking refuge away from their homes, some in other countries.

Popova is a mathematics teacher in the town of Borodyanka, in the Kyiv region of Ukraine. Her school was seized as a headquarters by Russian military forces and heavily damaged before their retreat. After her classroom transitioned to online instruction, Russian tanks fired on her house and burned it down. Yet this dedicated teacher continued to lead virtual lessons from a small umbrella-covered table in the yard.

Ordinary Ukrainians have been hailed for their heroism since Russia’s full-scale invasion. “There are no small matters in a great war,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy affirmed in an emotional New Year’s address. “Each of us is a fighter,” Zelenskyy stated. “Each of us is the basis of defense.”

Listing the tools of war – ship’s helms, steering wheels, weapons, scalpels – Zelenskyy ended with an unexpected inclusion: the teacher’s pointer. This passing remark highlights an often hidden front in Ukraine’s defensive struggle – the fight by countless teachers and parents to keep more than 8 million children educated, even as their worlds have been thrown into upheaval.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/russias-wa ... se-196773

[andmar74]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... war-russia

Let's go!

UK considers supplying handful of Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine

[weatheriscool]

Putin replaces commander of Russia's war in Ukraine after just 3 months
Source: NBC News

Russian President Vladimir Putin has replaced the commander leading his forces in Ukraine just three months after he handed him the job.

Gen. Valery Gerasimov will take over from Sergei Surovikin, the country’s defense ministry said on Telegram Wednesday, a change that comes as Kyiv warns Moscow is planning a major new offensive after months of battlefield setbacks.

Surovikin became the first person to be handed sole charge of the campaign in October, and his tenure has been marked by the aerial bombardment of Ukraine's civilian infrastructure as well as Russia's retreat from the crucial southern city of Kherson.

The ministry said he would now serve as one of Gerasimov's three deputies, along with Army Gen. Oleg Salyukov and Col. Gen. Alexey Kim, as part of a new "joint group of forces." It added that the “increase in the level of leadership” was “related to the amplified range of tasks,” and the necessity of closer cooperation between branches of Russia's armed forces.

Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/puti ... -rcna65307

[erowind]

Ukraine is an oligarchy not a democracy.

Let's assume, prove you point.
To began with, I propose to define with concept of oligarchy.

Basic knowledge, even the west acknowledges ukranian oligarchy explicitly. No, I'm not playing dictionary for you. You are an adult and are completely capable of understanding what the word "oligarchy" means.

Oligarchy in Ukraine and Russia for that matter started during the shock capitalism of the 90s that the United States and capitalist countries at large endorsed upon soviet collapse.

Here's a neat list of Ukranian Oligarchs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_oligarch

Here's a study conducted by the State Hydrographic Service of Ukraine on oligarchs in the country.

https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83641/1 ... _83641.pdf

Ukraine has it's own entry under the oligarchy page on wikipedia as does the United States and Russia. If you don't trust wikipedia follow the sources cited before complaining.

Someone in this thread is going to respond with some propaganda they read from some Associated Press sourced garbage about how "ThE WaR hAs HeLpEd UkRaInE rEiGn iN iTs oLiGaRcHs!"

Complete garbage. The war has accelerated privatizations across the Ukrainian economy and opened the door for American oligarchs and corporate takeover which I've posted about multiple times in this thread. Although, posting something like that AP regurgitation would require that the reader be able to acknowledge that Ukraine is not some virtuous nation fighting for "democracy" to begin with. Nationalism is garbage, the war is a racket, and both sides are just fighting for their respective masters bottom lines.

https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/ ... f-capital/

[erowind]

Nations are political movements and nationalism is an ideology. Ukraine is an oligarchy not a democracy. Most of the countries supporting Ukraine are oligarchies. Oligarchies can have “elections” that doesn’t make them democratic.

At what point is a country no longer an oligarchy and instead deserves to be called a democracy? Are there any countries on the planet that qualify in your mind as being "a democracy"?

At the point where a country has little to no corruption in its democratic processes and where the people of the country have direct binding control over its laws and political processes. The United States has legalized corruption through "lobbying." It's absurd that anyone seriously considers "democracy" in such a nation where legislation is literally and openly bought and sold.

Representative democracies are inherently undemocratic as "representatives" have no incentive or legal responsibility to actually represent their political constituents interests once they are in office.

Since the French Revolution there have been two competing and drastically different definitions of what "democracy" means. One, in the form of representative "democracy" or any other such form of democracy where the citizens do not have binding direct control over law. And a another form, where people do have binding direct control over law. This form is often called direct democracy but it is a much larger umbrella than that and more complex than the scope of this thread would allow. A quick working definition is that the people have binding direct control over law through their democratic processes, may these be consensus based, council based, etc and at any point are able to recall, undermine or otherwise control the processes of governance from the bottom up instead of relying on the "goodwill" of a top down hierarchy.

Naturally monarchists, capitalists, authoritarians and any other vile power hungry sociopaths have gravitated towards the first definition; representative "democracy," as it has allowed them to deceive the population into thinking they are free while simultaneously exploiting them and the commons for everything they are worth.

Philosophers from across the canon have discussed this problem for centuries, from Thomas Paine to Alexander Berkman to countless others.

In terms of what UN recognized nation states are wholly democratic? I'd say none. There are many that are much closer to being democratic countries than others, like Cuba, or in some respects some cantons of Switzerland. But all of them are hybrid regimes or otherwise outright full fledged oligarchies and or dictatorships.

There are some societies within countries that are democratic though. The EZLN in Mexico, the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria, the Mondragon Federation in the Basque Country to name a few prominent and highly successful examples.

[ibm9000]

Do Ukrainians generals talk to each other?

Another U. grl is saying that with 1.500 MBT (so 3.000 AFV at least), 1.5 millions artillery rounds and 80.000 men he is going to win the war.. By the way, UK was talking of " a handful" of Challenger-2, maybe a bit short of that.

So, he is going to advance to Mariuopol, take it (the last time it was that easy), get to the gates of Rostov, turn right, reach the isthmus, cross it and take Sevastopol (because it was that easy in WW2); and a few bits here and there, of course.
Russia called 200.000 reservists... but he is going to do all that with 80.000.

[Water]

Soledar by now seems to have fallen according to sources of varying backgrounds - including those biased in favor of Ukraine.

By now I've given up arguing with people who still think Russia will end up getting anything out of any of this, for the same reason I never argued against my patients when I worked with the elderly who suffered Alzheimer's. I kind of just congratulate them on the military progress they've imagined and move on.

The reality though, of course, is that Russia -is- pretty much in shambles and are eventually kicked out of their medieval attempt of conquest. Putin's supporters will still find a way to argue that he's won, but that's fine as long as they just go away.

Be that as it may, the fall of Soledar is a double edged sword. On one hand, Russia's reaction to it shows how ridiculously desperate Russia has become. What started as a plan to conquer Ukraine in 2 weeks, is now a celebration of the capture of a small area of ruins that proves the might of the unstoppable Russian army. On the other hand civilians are in fact killed or deported, Ukrainian morale -will- suffer irrationally as much as Russia will see this tiny achievement as proof of their military might.

If anything, Russia's historic failures are a reminder of the fact that outside of books and movies, wars are still tragedies even if the bad guys mess everything up from the get go.