Ukraine War Watch Thread

[kevinsstelly]

At the end of January 2023, a long anonymous article appeared on a pro-Kremlin website, the essence of which boiled down to the idea that the protracted war in Ukraine was not a forced necessity, but “Putin’s cunning plan.” The author asserts that Western analysts are absolutely right when they say that Russia “will have enough resources for many years, but the reserves of Western military arsenals will be seriously depleted, while their economy suffers.” The propagandist states that the transition from offensive to defensive operations will allow Moscow to carry out large-scale changes in the composition of the Russian Armed Forces, increase their numbers and ensure the timely supply of weapons and equipment. Here! “No one is in a hurry,” the author concludes (Topcor.ru, January 19).

The West is much richer and well-resourced than Russia and hence will be better able to replace whatever it equipment it loses in Ukraine. Most of what is being given is older and less capable weapons anyway.

I agree that the Russian economy is falling! Already a protracted war has been going on for almost 1 year! Russia has a 30% hole in the budget .... How much Russia can withstand without economic collapses, I think not for long!

[ibm9000]

Dig a hole in your backyard while it is raining. Sit in there while the water climbs up your ankles. Pour cold mud down your shirt. Sit there for 48 hours, and, so there is no danger of you dozing off, imagine that a guy is sneaking around waiting for a chance to club you on the head or to set your house on fire. Get out of the hole, fill a suitcase of rocks, pick it up, put a shotgun in your other hand and walk on the muddiest road you can find. Fall flat on your face every few minutes, as you imagine big meteors streaking down to sock you. Snoop around until you find a bull. Try to figure out a way to sneak around him without letting him see you. When he does see you, run like hell all the way back to your hole in the backyard, drop your suitcase and gun and get in. If you repeat this performance every three days for several months you may begin to understand why an infantryman gets out of breath. But still you won’t understand how he feels when things get tough. B. Mauldin.

I seems that we have just discover that war is expensive and that conditions are bad; and we keep asking for more.
In our proxy war, drinking a nice cup of tea, I cannot see the problem in how many casualties Ukraine suffers and, like in Iraq, reconstruction will bring good business opportunities.

I wonder if in 5 years (let's say 10, but Vietnam was invading Cambodia after the Vietnam war), a western, modernized, powerful Ukraine invades Belarus: are we going to provide the same support to Belarus?

[funkervogt]

II thought we were "giving" the latest, state-of-the-art stuff, based on our infinite superior technology. (Apart from the Leopard 1, if).

The West has given a mix of military equipment to Ukraine, from the obsolescent to fully modern.

[ibm9000]

II thought we were "giving" the latest, state-of-the-art stuff, based on our infinite superior technology. (Apart from the Leopard 1, if).

The West has given a mix of military equipment to Ukraine, from the obsolescent to fully modern.

Yes, I know, like that we are giving under-armoured Abrams, after some work, because its amour is "classified"; unless US is getting them back from some other country. My point is that the superior technology is a myth, a legacy from the Cold War: they have more, so ours has to be better, if not, we are admitting defeat even before starting.
(And I wouldn't call it "obsolescent, it kills just as well, something like 80% of the planet is using that -and the other 20% still have a lot of the old stuff, just in case- and there is not that much of the latest to go around, it's too expensive).

I agree that the Russian economy is falling!

The last time I read something about economy, Russia was -15%, Ukraine -45%. So, that means that 90% of Ukraine's economy is gone? That would be a clear victory.

I find a bit amusing the no-comparison. I think it is useful to get a little perspective, to have an idea about what is happening on both sides of the hill; maybe even to compare it with what happened before. That big picture should be more accurate.

[ibm9000]

Ukraine says two Russian missiles flew over Romania...
Romania says no, but what do they know?

Just another official statement.

[ibm9000]

It is February already...

Any news about those hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers who were going to freeze to death?
Anything?

[wjfox]

Russian soldier death rate highest since first week of war - Ukraine

40 minutes ago

Russian soldiers are dying in greater numbers in Ukraine this month than at any time since the first week of the invasion, according to Ukrainian data.

The Ukrainian data shows 824 Russian soldiers dying per day in February.

The figures were highlighted by the UK's Ministry of Defence. The figures cannot be verified - but the UK says the trends are "likely accurate".

The increase comes as Ukrainian officials say that Russia has launched a "big offensive".

However, the secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine (NSDC), Oleksiy Danilov, also said Russia is experiencing "big problems" with the campaign.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64616099

[ibm9000]

I think the "according to" is the important part here.

The 800 dead means (from a minimum of 3 to 1 wounded/dead, to a 10 to 1; let's take 5 to 1) around 5000 casualties every day, so 50.000 casualties in 10 days of combat. I am not going to believe that enemy estimate, specially because in every war you read quite often that of... the enemy suffered a large number of casualties.

How many casualties a day is "big problems"?

[ibm9000]

BTW, you (wjfox) mean 824 casualties.

[weatheriscool]

United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately
Source: Reuters

MOSCOW, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The United States has told its citizens to leave Russia immediately due to the war in Ukraine and the risk of arbitrary arrest or harassment by Russian law enforcement agencies.

"U.S. citizens residing or travelling in Russia should depart immediately," the U.S. embassy in Moscow said. "Exercise increased caution due to the risk of wrongful detentions." "Do not travel to Russia," it added.

"Russian security services have arrested U.S. citizens on spurious charges, singled out U.S. citizens in Russia for detention and harassment, denied them fair and transparent treatment, and convicted them in secret trials or without presenting credible evidence," the embassy said.

"Russian authorities arbitrarily enforce local laws against U.S. citizen religious workers and have opened questionable criminal investigations against U.S. citizens engaged in religious activity."

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/united ... 023-02-13/