Ukraine War Watch Thread

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ibm9000
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Ukraine itself received £401m-worth of exports, although most of the £2.3bn of weapons the UK supplied to Kyiv in 2022 were from stocks held by the British military, and so did not require an export licence.
The Guardian.
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caltrek
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The Longest Battle of the Ukraine War Might Finally be Over
by Jen Kirby
May 22, 2023

Introduction:
(Vox) Russia has claimed control of Bakhmut, a city at the center of one of the most prolonged and brutal battles of the war in Ukraine. Moscow is declaring it a major victory, but it is one that comes at an astounding cost. And exactly what the city’s capture means for the future course of the conflict is far less clear.

Bakhmut holds limited strategic value, though the approximately nine-month-long battle took on political and rhetorical significance for both sides. It also imposed real losses, as the battle for control of the city mutually attrited Russian and Ukrainian forces and firepower.

Over the weekend, Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced that Russia had finally taken Bakhmut, and Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrated the “liberation” of the city. Both credited the Wagner Group, the paramilitary group tied to the increasingly vocal oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, for its role in the operation.

Ukrainian military and defense officials, meanwhile, insisted all was not lost, and that Ukrainian forces were still controlling parts of Bakhmut and fighting continued in the suburban outskirts. “Despite the fact that we now control a small part of Bakhmut, the importance of its defense does not lose its relevance,” said General Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, according to a Telegram post from Ukraine’s General Staff and reported in the New York Times.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who spent the weekend at the G-7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, shoring up support for Ukraine, told reporters that he did not think Russia had taken Bakhmut, but said, “You have to understand that there is nothing. They’ve destroyed everything. There are no buildings.”

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/world-politics/202 ... offensive
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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ibm9000 wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 1:37 pm
British arms exports doubled during 2022 to a record £8.5bn according to the only publicly available official figures, reflecting escalating geopolitical uncertainties and fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The largest destination for UK-made weaponry was Qatar, which bought £2.7bn-worth, and 54% went to countries designated as “not free” by the human rights group Freedom House. These include Saudi Arabia and Turkey, as well as Qatar.
The Guardian.

It feels good to help Ukraine. (and freedom and democracy).
It is not just a matter of feeling good. It is also a matter of safety in numbers and the benefits of a one for all and all for one approach to defense.

Having said that, I continue to believe that the best solution is a negotiated end to the conflict. For this to happen, both sides would need some amount of good faith in their negotiation efforts. For its part, the impression I receive is that offers to negotiate are taken by Russia as a sign of weakness and therefore become an act of futility. At least until success in the battlefield is obtained.

Of course, it is possible that the West, including the United States, could have done more to encourage a negotiated settlement. A lot depends upon what has gone on behind the scenes. These are things to which we may not be privy. So, there is some hesitancy on my part to come to any definitive conclusion.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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Wagner chief warns Russians could revolt if invasion continues to struggle
CNN
A new “revolution” could rock Russia if its stuttering war effort in Ukraine continues, the chief of private military group Wagner has said, in a scathing assessment of Moscow’s military readiness that could further expose divisions in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military hierarchy.

Yevgeny Prigozhin said in an interview with Konstantin Dolgov, a pro-Russian blogger, that Moscow’s troops are unprepared to resist forces loyal to Kyiv even when they enter Russian territory.

He also praised the capabilities of the Ukrainian army, and urged Moscow to escalate its war effort if it wants to avoid a long and costly conflict.

“I believe Ukrainians today are one of the strongest armies in the world,” Prigozhin said. He called Kyiv’s forces “highly organized, highly trained and their intelligence is on the highest level, they can operate any military system with equal success, a Soviet or a NATO one.”

Snip
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/24/euro ... index.html
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Ukraine says it shot down 36 drones in overnight Russian attacks
Source: Reuters

Ukraine said on Thursday it had shot down all 36 Iranian-made drones launched by Russia in overnight attacks which it said probably targeted critical infrastructure and military facilities.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said it had been an "uneasy night" but commended the work of air defences.

"Continuing to terrorise Ukraine, the enemy used 36 Shahed (drones). None of them reached their target. Thanks to our air defence forces for the 100% result," he wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

Since last October, Moscow, which launched its full-scale invasion in February last year, has regularly sent waves of drones to attack targets in Ukraine. Although they are slow, drones are cheaper and more expendable than advanced missiles.
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 023-05-25/
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...approximately 35% of Ukraine’s population is estimated to be suffering from insufficient food consumption.
RUSI.

That is a strange way to win war.
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Russia's Wagner boss says more than 20,000 of his troops died in Bakhmut battle
Source: AP

Susie Blann 46 minutes ago
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The head of the Russian private army Wagner says his force lost more than 20,000 fighters in the drawn-out battle for Bakhmut, with about 20% of the 50,000 Russian convicts he recruited to fight in the 15-month war dying in the eastern Ukrainian city.

The figure was in stark contrast with claims from Moscow that it lost just over 6,000 troops in the war, and is higher than the official estimate of the Soviet losses in the Afghanistan war of 15,000 troops between 1979-89. Ukraine hasn’t said how many of its soldiers have died since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Analysts believe the nine-month fight for Bakhmut alone have cost the lives of tens of thousands of soldiers, among them convicts who reportedly received little training before being sent to the front.

Russia’s invasion goal of “demilitarizing” Ukraine has backfired because Kyiv’s military has become stronger with the supply of weapons and training by its Western allies, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said in an interview published late Tuesday with Konstantin Dolgov, a pro-Kremlin political strategist.


Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 562ada0e2c

If Russia is deserving of the power it gets worldwide then Ukraine also is. Ukraine is a military world power!!!
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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"Dead" and "casualties", losses... are not the same thing.

(I am happy to know that you believe everything he says).
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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One of the themes of this thread concerns the more technical aspects of the war in the Ukraine. Questions such as what new military hardware is being introduced, what older hardware is being battle tested in a new way or in a new environment, etc. It is not a favorite topic for discussion for me. For those who do have an interest, the provided link has a fairly technical discussion of the relative air power of the Ukraine and Russia as manifested in this conflict:

https://www.eurasiareview.com/27052023- ... analysis/
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
weatheriscool
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