Ukraine War Watch Thread

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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

^^^More on that:

How Russian Forces Got Obliterated Trying to Cross a River
by Howard Altman
May 12, 2022

Introduction:
(The Drive) Days after taking massive losses trying to cross the Siverskyi Donets by pontoon bridge, Russian forces appear to be trying to do it again.

A number of independent open-source analysts closely monitoring the war in Ukraine say despite those losses, the Russians continued to seek to cross the river.

The reason why Russians continue pressing the attack across the river is likely their attempt to encircle Ukrainian troops in Lysychansk to the southeast.
The attack

According to a Twitter thread posted by "Maxim," who goes by the Twitter handle @kms_d4k and claims to be a Ukrainian EOD (explosive ordnance disposal) officer, he and some Ukrainian recon units “went to explore the area of Hryhorivka and Bilohorivka” on May 7.

“Frontline units in Bilohorivka reported multiple RU vehicles gathering on the other side of the river,” he posted. What follows comes from his thread:
Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/d ... ss-a-river

caltrek's comment: Mind you, it is not that I am trying to gloat about the loss of the lives of Russian forces. War is hell. They attacked, the Ukrainians acted in self-defense, and the slaughter commences. That is a tragedy, not something to gloat over.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
weatheriscool
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Russian logistics ship 'on fire in Black Sea after Ukrainian strike'
Source: The Independent

‘Vsevolod Bobrov logistics ship, one of the newest in the Russian fleet, set on fire,’ says regional official. A Russian logistics ship caught fire after after being struck in the Black Sea, forcing it to return to port, according to a Ukrainian official.

Vsevolod Bobrov was apparently hit off the coast of Snake Island and was left “limping” back to Sevastopol.

Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesman for the Odesa Regional Military Administration, said: “As a result of the actions of our Navy, the Vsevolod Bobrov logistics ship, one of the newest in the Russian fleet, set on fire. They say she is limping toward Sevastopol.”

However the spokesman added that “the information is yet to be clarified”, and The Independent has been unable to verify the report.

Mr Bratchuk said the vessel was “brand new”, having arrived at its Sevastopol base on 17 February, a week before Russia launched its invasion.
Read more: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 77948.html
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Russia takes losses in failed river crossing, officials say
Source: Associated Press
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia lost significant numbers of troops and important equipment when Ukrainian forces thwarted their attempt to cross a river in the east, British officials said Friday, another sign of Moscow’s struggle to win decisive victories and salvage a war gone awry.

Ukrainian authorities, meanwhile, opened the first war crimes trial of the conflict, in proceedings that will be closely watched by international observers eager to ensure atrocities are fairly prosecuted. A Russian soldier stands accused of killing a Ukrainian civilian in the early days of the war.

The trial gets underway as Russia’s campaign in Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland of the Donbas makes faltering progress.
Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 8e0ffca2c9
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year'
Friday 13 May 2022

Ukraine's head of military intelligence says the war with Russia is going so well, that it will reach a turning point by mid-August and be over by the end of the year.

It is the most precise and optimistic prediction by a senior Ukrainian official so far.

In an exclusive interview with Sky News, Major General Kyrylo Budanov also said a coup to remove Vladimir Putin is already under way in Russia and the Russian leader is seriously ill with cancer.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... r-12612320
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Time_Traveller wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 5:33 pm Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year'
Friday 13 May 2022

Ukraine's head of military intelligence says the war with Russia is going so well, that it will reach a turning point by mid-August and be over by the end of the year.

It is the most precise and optimistic prediction by a senior Ukrainian official so far.

In an exclusive interview with Sky News, Major General Kyrylo Budanov also said a coup to remove Vladimir Putin is already under way in Russia and the Russian leader is seriously ill with cancer.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... r-12612320

Russia has been shown to be nothing more then a paper tiger. Putin will go down in history as one of its greatest jokes. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Ukraine war: West has declared 'total hybrid war' on Russia, claims Lavov - as Putin warns Finland against joining NATO
Saturday 14 May 2022

The West has declared a "total hybrid war" against Russia and it is hard to predict how long it will last, Moscow's foreign minister has said.

Sergei Lavrov said the consequences of the war in Ukraine will be felt around the world.

But speaking about sanctions on Russia, he warned: "Western politicians should understand their efforts to isolate our country are in vain."

And he went on to accuse Western nations of stealing other countries' assets and losing their reputation as reliable partners.

"In future, the world economy will be de-Americanised," he said.
https://news.sky.com/story/west-has-dec ... o-12612786
"We all have our time machines, don't we. Those that take us back are memories...And those that carry us forward, are dreams."

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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Ukraine: Russians withdraw from around Kharkiv, batter east
Source: AP

By OLEKSANDR STASHEVSKYI and DAVID KEYTON
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian troops are withdrawing from around Ukraine’s second-largest city after bombarding it for weeks, the Ukrainian military said Saturday, as Kyiv and Moscow’s forces engaged in a grinding battle for the country’s eastern industrial heartland.

Ukraine’s general staff said the Russians were pulling back from the northeastern city of Kharkiv and focusing on guarding supply routes, while launching mortar, artillery and airstrikes in the eastern Donetsk province in order to “deplete Ukrainian forces and destroy fortifications.”

Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Ukraine was “entering a new - long-term - phase of the war.”

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainians were doing their “maximum” to drive out the invaders and that the outcome of the war would depend on support from Europe and other allies.
Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 6f280739fc
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Hmm… not much has changed in this thread since my last visit.

For those interested in more balanced picture, let me explain (briefly) what IMHO really happened in Ukraine since February. The more that, after more than two months of war, it is already possible to draw some conclusions.

At first stage (24 February – mid-March) the main (naive, as it turned out) hope was that Ukrainian regime will implode. That’s why such a limited forces (only 100-150 thousand) were advancing from few, not even connected to each other, directions. Storming cities and urban combat wasn’t even planned. These hopes turned out to be realistic in Southern Ukraine, but nowhere else.

At second stage, as soon as it became clear that regime will not implode, the goals of war were reviewed and corrected. There was no longer point fighting in Central Ukraine (with population loyal to regime) and focus was changed to South Ukraine and Donbass. The overall military presence has been reduced and now Russia is slowly and carefully using even smaller forces. This, btw, was indirectly recognized by both West and Ukrainian propaganda. While Western analysts says “Russian general offensive is not yet started”, their Ukrainian colleagues scare their populace with "Putin will soon (within few days… by this and that date…) declare war on us". But wait a minute, didn’t he do it already? Actually no, common Ukrainians are well aware (though they'll never admit it out loud) that REAL war against them did not even started.

Back from battlefields to politics. As I said above, the main goal has changed. At first days of war, Russian troops weren’t even removing Ukrainian state symbols (banners and such), not to mention meddling into the civil administration. No longer. In April, the new administrations were formed in these liberated territories of Southern Ukraine. The economic integration is underway, and political integration will surely follow (maybe not yet de-jure, but in one form or another). The more that Russia have no other choice, even for purely moral reason. These are our people, ethnically and mentally, and if Ukrainian regime will somehow return into Kherson or Berdyansk, they’ll surely “find” dozens and dozens of new “buchas” there. In general, if you compare the pre-war maps of Ukrainian pro-Russian regions and current map of Russian-controlled areas, they almost match. Coincidence? I do not think so. The only exception are some pieces of Donbass, but this problem will be solved sooner or later (army works on that). And then the war will de-facto be over.

About losses. The first week of war was really bad, about 500 Russian soldiers were lost, and by the end of March the death toll reached about 1300. In April, the Russian army did not conduct large-scale offensives… anyway, even taking into account these official numbers may be underestimated, Ukrainian losses are much, MUCH, higher. This is Ukraine, not Russia, who announces new and new “waves” of mobilization and then throws its conscripts into useless attacks. And this is Russia, not Ukraine, who demonstrates fields and trenches filled with enemy corpses (you will not see them on the pages of “Economist” or “New York Times”, but…) Russian command usually allows to take these corpses back, but Ukrainian (or whoever really command their soldiers now) usually refuses, to not affect the morale. In general, Ukrainian losses are difficult to calculate, but surely above 30 thousand and still likely below 60 thousand. If they’ll continue like this, one million by the end of war seems not impossible.

So, given the circumstances - operating with limited forces against a numerically superior enemy sitting on positions well prepared for defense – Russian army performed surprisingly well (that doesn't mean there weren't any tragic mistakes, of course). This is difficult to say how and when and where exactly will this war end. One thing is sure: Ukraine is broken country. Even if the Russian army leaves tomorrow (it will not), Ukrainian demographic and economic losses are already irreversible. For a country which, even in “happy” peacetime, was losing from 0.5 to 1 percent of its population yearly… well, such is the price of wrong historical choice…

PS I'm unlikely to write anything else here (maybe another post after our victory, but that's all). So, for those old guard futuretimeliners who didn't fell into frenzy and didn’t started hating me: I’m OK and my life hasn't changed much, still writing code, climbing mountains, and reading (mainly non-fiction) books.
We are few, and the enemy is strong, but God is not in power, but in truth. Some with weapons, and others on horseback, but we call on the name of the Lord our God; they were defeated and fell, but we stood and stand straight.
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

Certain Russian user wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 5:43 pm Hmm… not much has changed in this thread since my last visit.

For those interested in more balanced picture, let me explain (briefly) what IMHO really happened in Ukraine since February. The more that, after more than two months of war, it is already possible to draw some conclusions.

At first stage (24 February – mid-March) the main (naive, as it turned out) hope was that Ukrainian regime will implode. That’s why such a limited forces (only 100-150 thousand) were advancing from few, not even connected to each other, directions. Storming cities and urban combat wasn’t even planned. These hopes turned out to be realistic in Southern Ukraine, but nowhere else.

At second stage, as soon as it became clear that regime will not implode, the goals of war were reviewed and corrected. There was no longer point fighting in Central Ukraine (with population loyal to regime) and focus was changed to South Ukraine and Donbass. The overall military presence has been reduced and now Russia is slowly and carefully using even smaller forces. This, btw, was indirectly recognized by both West and Ukrainian propaganda. While Western analysts says “Russian general offensive is not yet started”, their Ukrainian colleagues scare their populace with "Putin will soon (within few days… by this and that date…) declare war on us". But wait a minute, didn’t he do it already? Actually no, common Ukrainians are well aware (though they'll never admit it out loud) that REAL war against them did not even started.

Back from battlefields to politics. As I said above, the main goal has changed. At first days of war, Russian troops weren’t even removing Ukrainian state symbols (banners and such), not to mention meddling into the civil administration. No longer. In April, the new administrations were formed in these liberated territories of Southern Ukraine. The economic integration is underway, and political integration will surely follow (maybe not yet de-jure, but in one form or another). The more that Russia have no other choice, even for purely moral reason.
Reasonable.
These are our people, ethnically and mentally, and if Ukrainian regime will somehow return into Kherson or Berdyansk, they’ll surely “find” dozens and dozens of new “buchas” there. In general, if you compare the pre-war maps of Ukrainian pro-Russian regions and current map of Russian-controlled areas, they almost match. Coincidence? I do not think so. The only exception are some pieces of Donbass, but this problem will be solved sooner or later (army works on that). And then the war will de-facto be over.
Bullshit. Clearly, in Putin's Russia, Ukrainians are at best second-class citizens. One does not commit war crimes against "our people" or allow one's soldiers to commit such crimes without consequences. Even in the worse days of Vietnam, Lt. Calley was prosecuted for his war crimes. You do not engineer famines, as Stalin did, in order to remove one population of "our people" so that it can be replaced by another population. You do not act with reckless disregard in running nuclear facilities, such as Chernobyl, which then results in the permanent poisoning of land inhabited by "our people." Clearly, the Ukrainians do not want to live under the rule of a tyrant like Putin, let alone a totalitarian dictatorship of the kind that Russia is morphing into. If you are so convinced that they are "our people," then why not grant them self-rule?

...and please, no bullshit arguments about how they are under the influence of neo-Nazis. Putin started this war, He is clearly taking an aggressive stance. No word games about "military action" versus "invasion" is going to change that. Even if it is against the law for you to even speak in such terms.
About losses. The first week of war was really bad, about 500 Russian soldiers were lost, and by the end of March the death toll reached about 1300. In April, the Russian army did not conduct large-scale offensives… anyway, even taking into account these official numbers may be underestimated, Ukrainian losses are much, MUCH, higher. This is Ukraine, not Russia, who announces new and new “waves” of mobilization and then throws its conscripts into useless attacks. And this is Russia, not Ukraine, who demonstrates fields and trenches filled with enemy corpses (you will not see them on the pages of “Economist” or “New York Times”, but…) Russian command usually allows to take these corpses back, but Ukrainian (or whoever really command their soldiers now) usually refuses, to not affect the morale. In general, Ukrainian losses are difficult to calculate, but surely above 30 thousand and still likely below 60 thousand. If they’ll continue like this, one million by the end of war seems not impossible.

So, given the circumstances - operating with limited forces against a numerically superior enemy sitting on positions well prepared for defense – Russian army performed surprisingly well (that doesn't mean there weren't any tragic mistakes, of course). This is difficult to say how and when and where exactly will this war end. One thing is sure: Ukraine is broken country. Even if the Russian army leaves tomorrow (it will not), Ukrainian demographic and economic losses are already irreversible. For a country which, even in “happy” peacetime, was losing from 0.5 to 1 percent of its population yearly… well, such is the price of wrong historical choice…
Well. I am not on the ground in Ukraine, and these days neither are you. So actual number of casualties on both sides are not clear. Still don't fall for the numbers game, as in counting Ukrainian civilians as "combatants" while deliberately understating Russian military casualties. The U.S. learned the folly of such number games in Vietnam.

I also suspect that it was not Ukraine's poor economic performance too which Putin reacted. More likely it was the relative wealth of Ukraine that terrified him. That and the opportunity it presented to stoke resentment among the rank and file military. Combine that with operating according to democratic rules...Well, something that just could not be tolerated.

PS I'm unlikely to write anything else here (maybe another post after our victory, but that's all). So, for those old guard futuretimeliners who didn't fell into frenzy and didn’t started hating me: I’m OK and my life hasn't changed much, still writing code, climbing mountains, and reading (mainly non-fiction) books.
Good to know that you are personally doing well. I hope that continues.

I presume others will have their own take on your comments. So, I will end on that note of good wishes for you personally.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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