Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Certain Russian user]

I think it's time for me to return here and add...

Mariupol

Technically speaking, there are still some nazi rats and their foreign "friends" (in fact, bosses) trapped in industrial area. They're still begging the "world community" to provide them some "security corridor" and, for some unknown (but purely political) reasons, are still alive. But the residential areas are already (sometime from mid-April, this is difficult to point a certain day) fully liberated and slowly returning back to normal. One local 6-7 years old boy worded this very well: "evil soldiers gone, good soldiers remained".

[Certain Russian user]

And I scrolled through the previous page (too lazy to read all what was added since my last visit, sorry)... you, guys, are amazing:

They're going to try holding it for a while but only to lose it again once the Ukrainians launch a counteroffensive...

I agree, the Russians can't win this. We can read about advanced weapons being shipped from USA, France and other European countries. I think Ukraine will manage to kick Russia out of their country.

[funkervogt]

Here's a good analysis of the Ukraine War and its possible outcomes.

https://static.rusi.org/special-report- ... -z-web.pdf

It's premature to assume Ukraine will win. Russia could still grind down the Ukrainians over the course of this year. If Ukraine falls, Moldova is almost certainly next.

The West might lose its unity and resolve in the coming months, especially as higher gas and oil prices start causing real damage to their economies.

[raklian]

The West might lose its unity and resolve in the coming months, especially as higher gas and oil prices start causing real damage to their economies.

With all those economic sanctions plus more incoming, I think Russia is the one more economically damaged. In a war between sides especially one that is about attrition, one that is relatively worse off economically tends to burn out first. Europe might start to doubt its resolve as high gas prices start to eat into people's wallets but the United States will give it a renewed push to act tough on Russia. Europe will listen to Biden. On balance, Russia is in a weaker position. That entails damaging its worldwide reputation and of course the war in Ukraine.

[Xyls]

Moldova holds security meeting after blasts in pro-Russia breakaway region

Seems like clear false-flag attacks against Moldova, with the attempt to try an escalate conflict in Transnistria. So really seems like Russia wants to go all the way with a southern strategy. Doubt they are going to succeed at this. They are going to have major problems trying to take Zaporizhizia let alone trying to take the rest of the Donbas.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ansnistria

[funkervogt]

The West might lose its unity and resolve in the coming months, especially as higher gas and oil prices start causing real damage to their economies.

With all those economic sanctions plus more incoming, I think Russia is the one more economically damaged. In a war between sides especially one that is about attrition, one that is relatively worse off economically tends to burn out first. Europe might start to doubt its resolve as high gas prices start to eat into people's wallets but the United States will give it a renewed push to act tough on Russia. Europe will listen to Biden. On balance, Russia is in a weaker position. That entails damaging its worldwide reputation and of course the war in Ukraine.

Your probably right, though the Russians are probably willing to endure more sacrifices than Westerners to win in Ukraine.

[weatheriscool]

Russia warns Britain of immediate 'proportional response' for 'provoking' Ukraine to attack
Source: The Guardian

Russia’s defence ministry has warned of an immediate “proportional response” if Britain continues its “direct provocation” of Ukraine to strike targets in Russia, Reuters reports.

The ministry cited statements from the UK’s armed forces minister, James Heappey, that said Britain backs Ukrainian troops carrying out strikes in Russian territory. Speaking earlier today, Heappey said it was “not necessarily a problem” if Ukraine uses weapons donated by Britain.

We would like to underline that London’s direct provocation of the Kiev regime into such actions, if such actions are carried out, will immediately lead to our proportional response.

As we have warned, the Russian Armed Forces are in round-the-clock readiness to launch retaliatory strikes with high-precision long-range weapons at decision-making centers in Kyiv.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -kyiv-live

[caltrek]

The United States Has Supported Successful Mediation in 11 Vicious Conflicts since 1990: Could Ukraine Make it an Even Dozen?
by Stephen R. Weissman
April 27, 2022

https://thebulletin.org/2022/04/the-uni ... st-heading

Introduction:

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) Up to now, the United States, along with its Western partners, has been rightly preoccupied with furnishing Ukraine the weapons needed to defend itself against massive Russian aggression, ramping up crushing economic sanctions against Russia, and decrying the latter’s war crimes. However, they also need to use their considerable leverage with both sides to promote neutral third-party mediation to deescalate this particularly dangerous war. US and Western policy makers should remember that their predecessors’ support for such mediations has helped settle 11 vicious civil wars and interstate conflicts since 1990.

The very existence of so many cases suggests that Ukraine and Russia are unlikely to reach an enduring peace agreement by themselves, at least in the foreseeable future. After mediating the genocidal conflict in Burundi for two years, former Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere told me, “One thing I know. They can’t do it on their own.” Irregular phone calls and meetings with the Ukraine combatants by a changing cast of concerned world leaders testify to their belief that third party intervention is necessary to stem the crisis. But they are no substitute for a well-structured peace process, one led by a prime mediator like the United Nations or a small group of countries acceptable to Russia and Ukraine and bolstered by other relevant nations.

No doubt the 11 conflicts, from Bosnia to Sudan, would have eventually ended on their own, or at least been interrupted for a time. But the costs of delayed, do-it-yourself peacemaking can be extremely high, as we have seen recently in Afghanistan and the Iran-Iraq War.

Mediation becomes opportune when it appears that neither party is likely to achieve a military victory within a short-to-medium time frame. While no one knows what the exact military balance in Ukraine will look like in the next few months or possibly years, it is most unlikely that the larger and more powerful combatant, Russia, will be totally defeated—no matter how many Western arms flow to a much smaller Ukraine. Even if some of Russia’s recent advances in the South and East are reversed, President Vladimir Putin can be expected to fight on for a considerable time, given his deeply felt security concerns and personal political interest in some sort of “victory.”

caltrek's comment: Of course, those who proclaim to be the most upset about loss of life among the ranks of the Russian military, and the disrespect surrounding such suffering, are also the ones least likely to support the obvious solution - a mediated settlement.