Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Yuli Ban
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Yuli Ban »

I think Russia's intention was simply to decapitate the Ukrainian government and figured that it would be easy.

And it would have been easy if they did this back in 2014 instead of arbitrarily stopping at Crimea and Donetsk, letting Ukraine and NATO prepare for 8 years.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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joe00uk
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by joe00uk »

Yuli Ban wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:03 pm I think Russia's intention was simply to decapitate the Ukrainian government and figured that it would be easy.

And it would have been easy if they did this back in 2014 instead of arbitrarily stopping at Crimea and Donetsk, letting Ukraine and NATO prepare for 8 years.
Exactly, and that's what many in Russia wanted to do back then, but Putin held them back. Still, I don't think this war is anything like over. I said this before a few weeks ago, but this is really shaping up be one of those conflicts that drags on for years and years with the initiative switching between the two sides every few months. Neither side will lose, and neither side will win. In ten years' time, this war will probably still "officially" continue, but as a frozen conflict with near-permanent ceasefires occasionally broken by sporadic shelling along frontlines near enough to what Russia controls today.

But who knows, maybe some huge surprise will come and blow everything else out of the water.
Xyls
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Xyls »

Wow, some Q-Anon meteorologists in the RAF too...

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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

Prime Minister Tells Zelensky that Japan Sees Russia Annexation a Violation of International Law
September 30, 2022

Introduction:
(Kyodo News) TOKYO - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday that Japan will never recognize Russia's annexation of parts of southern and eastern Ukraine, emphasizing it is an act that violates international law.

Kishida also told reporters after his telephone conversation with Zelenskyy that Japan will consider further sanctions on Russia and continue supporting Ukraine in efforts to end the war, launched by Moscow in February, as soon as possible.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday declared the annexation of four occupied Ukrainian regions, in an escalation of his country's now seven-month-long war against its neighbor.

Voting in what Western officials say are sham referendums to be used as a pretext for Russian annexation took place in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the south as well as Donetsk and Luhansk in the east.

Ukraine has condemned the votes, while leaders of the Group of Seven industrialized nations issued a statement vowing they will also "never recognize" the referendums or an annexation.
Read more here: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/202 ... govt.html

caltrek's comment: Of course, I suppose the what-aboutists will now suddenly recall the attack on Pearl Harbor, the Rape of Nanking, etc. thereby missing the point.
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Xyls
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Xyls »



And this is what it all really comes down to for Putin, now as he simply cannot win a conventional war against Ukraine. At this point Putin's really only hope at any kind of victory is for the European/American governments to have a decisive change of heart against Ukraine by electing a government that either pressures Ukraine to accept peace without a total return of land (a defacto recognition of annexation which the West says they won't do) or stops military aid.

As I've stated Putin will not use any nuclear weapons until at least after the November U.S. midterms, as he badly needs to Republicans to take control of the congress in the hopes that they will put further support to Ukraine further under the microscope. But even then that new congress wouldn't take office until January, and there are still large sections of the Republicans which wish to see Putin defeated as well. If the Republicans don't win the House in November then Putin may calculate there is no other option but to try a tactical nuclear strike. But at that point any such strike would likely be within what Russia claims is the Russian federation itself. Very hard to convince people you are saving them when you are nuking your own territory. (But who is he really trying to convince at this point anyways? Tucker Carlson viewers?) Nuking before the American election will 100% assure that any kind of political settlement is off the table.

The other thing and why we saw the attack on NordStream is trying to pressure European governments of the economic pressures. However, this is extremely unlikely to work as none of the major European powers are scheduled for elections now and the 5 main players (UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland) are all very resolute against Russia at this point, and a nuclear strike will simply deepen their resolution further. The only real disruption within the EU would be Hungary and they are too insignificant to stop Western resolve, and otherwise be an annoyance. Even if theoretically the US was to slow down support, it is incredibly unlikely the rest of Europe or Canada would do the same. Unless Putin is hoping civil unrest topples governments, but I strongly suspect that is not going to be the case.

However, during this entire time Russia is going to be losing territory it occupies and the internal political situation in Russia is going to be further destabilized as losses continue and may not be able to survive the next few months. Not to mention the mobilization for Putin is entirely about playing for time to prevent conventional military defeat at this point in order to try to get a victory on the political front against the West. Not to mention these poorly equipped conscripts are basically being sent as meat shields that will likely freeze while Putin tries to get his gas hostage strategy to work, and I'm pretty damn convinced it won't. Even the US stopping military equipment supplies to Ukraine will not cause them to reverse sanctions unless the Americans totally elect a Q-Anon crazy House and Senate. And after the abortion fiasco in the States over the summer this simply will not happen this term. Sad for Putin, had Roe not been overturned he might have actually had a chance to win this war (politically at least). These sanctions will prevent Russia from being able to resupply it's military, so even weapons coming from the rest of Europe/Canada/Turkey without the US would still likely cause the Russians to continue taking horrific losses and losing terrain.

At which point by the spring what will happen with the war. Will the Russians draw a line at the Ukrainians marching into Crimea while letting everything else go to waste and call that a victory? Any nuclear strike will be self-defeating under this scenario. Russian mobilization will do nothing since they can't properly supply them and dooms hundreds of thousands of Russian men to die this winter while stirring up discontent in Russia. Do the ultranationalists in Russia stage a coup at this point? Is there a popular uprising? Is there a coup then a popular uprising and then a civil war in Russia?

I think the Russian government can realistically drag this war out until March at latest and then something is going to have to give.
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ººº
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ººº »

joe00uk wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:08 pm
Yuli Ban wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:03 pm I think Russia's intention was simply to decapitate the Ukrainian government and figured that it would be easy.

And it would have been easy if they did this back in 2014 instead of arbitrarily stopping at Crimea and Donetsk, letting Ukraine and NATO prepare for 8 years.
Exactly, and that's what many in Russia wanted to do back then, but Putin held them back. Still, I don't think this war is anything like over. I said this before a few weeks ago, but this is really shaping up be one of those conflicts that drags on for years and years with the initiative switching between the two sides every few months. Neither side will lose, and neither side will win. In ten years' time, this war will probably still "officially" continue, but as a frozen conflict with near-permanent ceasefires occasionally broken by sporadic shelling along frontlines near enough to what Russia controls today.

But who knows, maybe some huge surprise will come and blow everything else out of the water.
So essentially a new Syria?
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erowind
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by erowind »

caltrek wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:09 pm
From Putin's recent address to his nation in which he also announced the mobilization to enlarge the Russian military with conscripts:
"Otherwise, we can finish the war, but we will not have peace, and we will have another war," he said.

In a rare address to the nation earlier this week, Mr Putin said his country had "various weapons of destruction" and would "use all the means available to us", adding: "I'm not bluffing."

Technically, Putin is coaching his arguments in the rhetoric of self-defense. As pointed out in earlier posts, his announced annexation of Ukrainian occupied territory into Russia can thus be interpreted, rightly or wrongly, as a willingness to use nuclear weapons to achieve the defense of his recent, dare I say "illegitimate" use of force.


Show me a transcript with this wording translated by an official governmental or reputable Russian news organization or at the very least from a country that isn't part of NATO or economically intertwined with NATO.
I've already established I don't trust our institutions to be honest reporting the transcript. I haven't seen any evidence that the Russian government is actively planning a first strike over even what it considers to now be federalized Russia (occupied Ukraine.)
The only thing I've seen is both powers laying the cultural groundwork for a first strike as I explained before.

I might add that the author of that bible that you initially cited in regards to "Manufacturing Consent" has also:
{sic} Chomsky...
https://www.thedailybeast.com/noam-chom ... in-ukraine

Chomsky also:
said that while he isn't opposed to sending arms to Ukraine, so long as it's done under genuine concern for Ukrainians, it must be done in "a way which will not escalate the Russian attack and can lead, of course, to the destruction of Ukraine.'"
Source: https://www.newsweek.com/henry-kissinge ... ar-1709733
Whatever hypothetical military aid Chomsky is referring to is not American policy, this argument isn't relevant because current policy is escalating the war and leading to the destruction of Ukraine. Moreover what Chomsky is clearly alluding to there is that America's policy in Ukraine has nothing to do with a "genuine concern for Ukrainians." Namely, it doesn't seem like Chomsky would agree with what you're implying by posting this excerpt.

Even if Chomsky was arguing in favor of what I would consider imperial military intervention on the part of America it wouldn't contradict my reference to his philosophical works or using those arguments as such. There's a word here called "nuance." It's like how I can agree with Lenin's analysis of capitalist imperialism and vehemently disagree with his state building policies and political action in building a revolutionary society. It's like how I can find value in Descartes's methods of reasoning and categorically disagree with his ethical treatment and understanding of non-human animals.

So yes, I stand by my statements on manufactured consent. I'm unconvinced anything Chomsky said you quoted contradicts them. And even if it did I'm allowed to disagree with him while using other arguments he's made. As for his words on Zelensky's "glorious" leadership I do disagree, don't care, and don't think navelgazing a rich puppet like Zelensky and stoking Ukrainian nationalism does anything positive for the world.
The reason I reference Chomsky's work here is because it's more approachable to this audience. Mark Fisher's "capitalist realism," Guy Debord's "spectacle" and Theodor Adorno's concept of "culture industry" are all equally applicable though they require more understanding of marxist theory and or critical theory to apply to this war and are not as approachable to a general audience in this case.
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joe00uk
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by joe00uk »

ººº wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:17 amSo essentially a new Syria?
Yes. But also a return to previous conditions in the Donbass itself seen from 2015 to 2022 (but with Russia occupying more territory). Like I say though, I could be completely wrong. Such a scenario assumes no major changes to how the war is currently being fought, which is highly uncertain.
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

wjfox wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:19 pm
Zolota Balka according to the ISW.
"I believe" is not exactly that "confirmed", right?
Russian Air Force claims they can't provide close air support in Kherson due to torrential rain and severe weather.
I cannot speak Russian, but where is this "official anoucement" by the VVS, please?
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

Xyls
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