Ukraine War Watch Thread

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funkervogt
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Western military experts say Russia's progress will halt soon due to ammunition, equipment, and manpower shortages. If the West gives Ukraine enough money and weapons, the balance of power could shift in their favor by the end of this year.
The Russian military will soon exhaust its combat capabilities and be forced to bring its offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region to a grinding halt, according to Western intelligence predictions and military experts.

“There will come a time when the tiny advances Russia is making become unsustainable in light of the costs and they will need a significant pause to regenerate capability,” said a senior Western official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.

...Russian commentators are also noting the challenges, emphasizing a chronic shortage of manpower. “Russia does not have enough physical strength in the zone of the special military operation in Ukraine …. taking into account the almost one thousand kilometer (or more) line of confrontation,” wrote Russian military blogger Yuri Kotyenok on his Telegram account. He estimated that Russia would need 500,000 troops to attain its goals, which would only be possible with a large-scale mobilization of military men, a potentially risky and unpopular move that President Vladimir Putin has so far refrained from undertaking.

...The Russians still have the advantage over Ukrainian forces, who are suffering too. Ukrainian officials put the number of their soldiers killed in action at as many as 200 a day. The Ukrainians have also almost entirely run out of the Soviet-era ammunition on which their own weapons systems rely, and are still in the process of transitioning to Western systems.

But conditions for Ukrainian troops are only likely to improve as more sophisticated Western weapons arrive, while those of Russian forces can be expected to deteriorate as they dig deeper into their stocks of old, outdated equipment, said retired Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. forces in Europe who is now with the Center for European Policy Analysis. At some point in the coming months, the Ukrainians will have received enough Western weaponry that it is likely they will be able to go on the counteroffensive and reverse the tide of the war, he said.

“I remain very optimistic that Ukraine is going to win, and that by the end of this year Russia will be driven back to the Feb. 24 line,” he said, referring to the boundaries of Russian-occupied areas in Crimea and Donbas captured during fighting in 2014 and 2015. “Right now it sucks to be on the receiving end of all this Russian artillery. But my assessment is that things are going to be trending in favor of the Ukrainians in the next few weeks.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... of-forces/

These predictions seem more grounded in reality than the ones made in March about the Russian army's inevitable collapse or total defeat, etc. In spite of its setbacks over the last month, Ukraine could still win the war in the longer run if it and its Western allies are willing to commit to a war of attrition against Russia. The problem is, drawing out the war will cost everyone huge amounts of money, trigger a global food crisis, and make for a terrible winter in Europe once they see how much they have to pay for heating.
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funkervogt
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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For the sake of maintaining a balanced perspective, let me bring up one of those viral predictions about Russia's impending defeat, made during Russia's difficult period in March. "Igor Shusko" created a Tweet thread full of claims that an FSB analyst allegedly passed on to him, describing the gloomy expectations of Russia's own experts.

The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable as Russia and Ukraine are main producers of wheat. (MY COMMENTARY: I disagree that this will result in global famine.)
2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical.
Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos.
These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything.
Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left.
The last prediction is self-evidently wrong. June is now almost over, and Russia's economy remains stronger than expected.
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Lorem Ipsum
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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funkervogt wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:40 pm These predictions seem more grounded in reality than the ones made in March about the Russian army's inevitable collapse or total defeat, etc. In spite of its setbacks over the last month, Ukraine could still win the war in the longer run if it and its Western allies are willing to commit to a war of attrition against Russia. The problem is, drawing out the war will cost everyone huge amounts of money, trigger a global food crisis, and make for a terrible winter in Europe once they see how much they have to pay for heating.
I think it's the other way around: Russia could and will try turn this war into a new Afghanistan. If they're lucky US may retire most of its support by 2023.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Russia will soon exhaust its combat capabilities, Western assessments predict
Source: Washington Post
The Russian military will soon exhaust its combat capabilities and be forced to bring its offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region to a grinding halt, according to Western intelligence predictions and military experts.

“There will come a time when the tiny advances Russia is making become unsustainable in light of the costs and they will need a significant pause to regenerate capability,” said a senior Western official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.

....

Russia, meanwhile, is continuing to suffer heavy losses of equipment and men, calling into question how much longer it can remain on the attack, the official said.

Officials refuse to offer a time frame, but British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, citing intelligence assessments, indicated this week that Russia would be able to continue to fight on only for the “next few months.” After that, “Russia could come to a point when there is no longer any forward momentum because it has exhausted its resources,” he told the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung in an interview.
Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... of-forces/
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Ukraine war: Kyiv attacked by Russia for first time in weeks as one killed and several injured in missile strikes
Sunday 26 June 2022

Ukraine's capital has been attacked for the first time in three weeks by Russian missile strikes - as G7 leaders gathered in Germany with the invasion high on the agenda.

A nine-storey apartment block was struck along with the compound of a kindergarten as officials said one person was killed and five others injured in the attacks.

Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said four people were taken to hospital and a seven-year-old girl was pulled alive from the rubble.

He claimed the airstrikes may have been a "symbolic attack" by Moscow ahead of this week's NATO summit in Madrid.

Smoke rises over a residential building damaged by a Russian missile strike in Kyiv
Andriy Yermak, head of the president's administration, said: "The Russians hit Kyiv again. Missiles damaged an apartment building and a kindergarten."

The residential block was left smouldering with a crater in its roof as firefighters put out a blaze there, and debris was strewn over parked cars outside in the central Shevchenkivskiy district.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... s-12640631
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funkervogt
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Putin has recalled a morbidly obese, 67-year-old general from retirement, named "General Pavel," to command special operations troops in Ukraine after another general was seriously wounded.
“Most of his best and battle-hardened senior commanders have been killed or injured fighting in Ukraine so he is resorting to sending second rate officers to the front who don’t last very long.
“He is now dragging generals out of retirement and one of those is General Pavel.
“Putin is like a mafia boss who no one can refuse to obey. If a retired general gets a message from Putin saying mother Russia needs you to fight in Ukraine there is not much you can do. There is now escape from Russia thanks to the sanctions.”
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world- ... d-27326346
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Zelensky says people 'living normal lives' as shopping centre struck

15:42

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the strike on a shopping mall in Kremenchuk has "no strategic value" to Russian forces.

Zelensky said Russia carried out a missile strike at a crowded retail area while more than 1,000 people were in the building.

Footage from the site shows the badly damaged, collapsing building ablaze, and fire crews struggling to contain the flames.

"The occupiers have hit a shopping centre with over a thousand civilians inside," Zelensky said on Telegram.

"It is on fire, and rescue workers are trying to put out the fire, the number of victims is impossible to imagine."

"It posed no threat to the Russian army. No strategic value. People only wanted to live a normal life, which is what angers the occupiers so much.

"Out of helplessness, Russia continues to hit ordinary people. It is vain to expect it to be reasonable or humane."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61941287
Xyls
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Lorem Ipsum wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 7:01 pm
funkervogt wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:40 pm These predictions seem more grounded in reality than the ones made in March about the Russian army's inevitable collapse or total defeat, etc. In spite of its setbacks over the last month, Ukraine could still win the war in the longer run if it and its Western allies are willing to commit to a war of attrition against Russia. The problem is, drawing out the war will cost everyone huge amounts of money, trigger a global food crisis, and make for a terrible winter in Europe once they see how much they have to pay for heating.
I think it's the other way around: Russia could and will try turn this war into a new Afghanistan. If they're lucky US may retire most of its support by 2023.
This is not a good strategy for Russia. The Americans are not losing any personnel in this war. And Syria should show just how long the Americans can sustain support to groups if they aren't the ones losing soldiers.

Russia is in a bad spot if they think Western resolve is going to break that easily. Once the energy issues are dealt with, and they largely will be by the end of the year. There will be a re-intensification of resolve.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Ukraine war: Russia takes TV and websites offline as part of media blackout in occupied territories
Tuesday 28 June 2022

Image

Russia is exerting control of the media in occupied parts of Ukraine as regional military administrations seek near-total domination of the information space.

The tactic has involved kidnapping journalists, taking over local newsrooms, blocking Ukrainian TV and the internet, while promoting Russian channels and websites.

Analysis of topics covered by Russian media suggests a concerted effort to make Ukraine appear as a failed state. It may be designed to send a message to those in the occupied zone that Russian governance is preferable.

A media monitor developed by Ukrainian publication Texty.UA shows the topics that Russian media has focused on and how they have changed since the war began:

The first stage of Russian media control involved taking over the physical infrastructure used to broadcast TV.

On 4 March it was reported that Russian forces installed new equipment on two TV towers in Kherson and Melitopol, two of the largest cities in the southern occupied regions, in order to broadcast Russian TV channels.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... s-12634539
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