Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Certain Russian user]

Sorry, are you calling your own post "moronic"?

You're still too nervous...

"Unconfirmed reports" or "fairy tales" sound a bit like the same thing.

Definitely not. Unconfirmed literally means reports from reliable sources that were not yet confirmed officially.

I thought the question was Severodonetsk... Again, we were talking about Severodonetsk...

Yes, Severodonetsk. And the same Ukrainian tactics: civilians "voluntarily retreated" into industrial area, so far only one of them managed to escape, others being kept inside and traded for the right of safe passage to Lisichansk.

And I fail to understand what "interviews" you demand from me. If you know Russian, there are huge lot of such "interviews" (and other stuff) in Telegram.

[funkervogt]

Ukraine war could last for years, warns Nato chief

Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the costs of war were high, but the price of letting Moscow achieve its military goals was even greater.

His comments came as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson also warned of the need to brace for a longer-term conflict.

Both Mr Stoltenberg and Mr Johnson said sending more weapons would make a victory for Ukraine more likely.

"We must prepare for the fact that it could take years. We must not let up in supporting Ukraine," the Nato chief said in an interview with German newspaper Bild.

"Even if the costs are high, not only for military support, also because of rising energy and food prices."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61856144

I'm getting the feeling that Americans are already tired of hearing about the Ukraine War. However, our top leaders are deciding foreign policy, so we'll keep supporting Ukraine indefinitely, in spite of the high cost.

[ibm9000]

I cannot speak Russian...
But "unconfirmed reports" does not mean "reliable sources" and it certainly does not mean that it is going to be nor that it will be confirmed; even if you wait until the Five O'clock Follies.

Hostages/interviews...
"Retreat to industrial area, take local civilians as hostages", that was your statement, so I see three options: You are at Severodonetsk, in the industrial area, talking to them. You were on the phone talking to them, after confirming that they were in that industrial area or you are just telling a story, like a fairy tale.

"Too nervous"...
I am guessing you are trying to say something, but I am at a loss to understand what. Maybe you are thinking in a different language?

[caltrek]

Why Grain Can’t Get Out of Ukraine
by Jen Kirby
June 20, 2022

Introduction:

(Vox) Approximately 20 million tons of grain sit in storage in Ukraine, with few ways out of the country. It is a slow-moving crisis that is choking Ukraine off from the global economy, and cutting the rest of the world off from Ukraine’s critical supply of grains.

Ukraine provides about 10 percent of the global share of wheat exports, and almost half of the world’s sunflower oil. Alongside Russia, Ukraine makes this region one of the world’s “breadbaskets.” But Moscow’s war in Ukraine and Western sanctions against Russia have squeezed agricultural exports from the entire Black Sea region. These products can be replaced on the global market, but at a cost. Food is harder to afford for poor countries, and for poor people in rich countries. It could deepen a worldwide hunger crisis. United Nations food agencies warn that a record 49 million people, in 46 countries, are at risk of falling into famine conditions this year.

Ukraine exported a lot of its 2021 crop before Russia’s invasion, including a lot of its wheat, but some of that, and products like corn, are still in storage. Exporters are struggling to get what’s left out, because Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, like the key city of Odesa, are under blockade. Russian fleets are blocking the route, and the area is heavily mined.

Conclusion:

Russia has also suggested it could ease the blockade, in exchange for relief from Western sanctions, a quid pro quo that plays to Russia’s strategy of trying to blame the United States and the West, not its unprovoked war, for the coming food crisis.

Even if some deal is reached, the region’s waters would still need to be de-mined, which experts said is technically possible, but will take time, perhaps months. Ukraine is worried that this would leave Odesa vulnerable to attack, especially since Russia has a track record of violating these deals. But as experts said, there has to be some sort of diplomatic breakthrough, because the Black Sea is the only viable way to get the grain out. “Otherwise,” Zhelev said, “the whole world suffers.”

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/23171151/ukraine- ... od-crisis

[Certain Russian user]

The transition from denial to bargaining stage... article from "National Interest"

A Proposed Peace Plan to End the Russo-Ukrainian War

While Western media outlets continue to mistakenly report that Ukraine is winning the war, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has indicated that Russia is making incremental progress towards achieving its military objectives. According to a recent Western intelligence report, even though the United States is providing Ukraine with four to five times more military aid than Kyiv spends on its armed forces each year, Ukraine is losing the Battle of the Donbass and suffering “extreme losses” while being “outgunned 20 to 1 in artillery.” Ukrainian troops are running out of ammunition, increasingly demoralized, and beginning to desert. The report also revealed that most Ukrainian artillery is limited to a range of twenty-five kilometers while Russian artillery and rocket launchers can strike from twelve times that distance. It also stated that Ukraine’s bargaining position has been weakened since Russia has more than ten times the number of prisoners of war than Ukraine...

What follows is a proposed fifteen-point peace plan to end the Russo-Ukrainian War. These are the best and most realistic terms Ukraine can hope for, as well as the terms most likely to be agreeable to both sides...

Fifteen Point Peace Plan to End the War in Ukraine [...]

Read more: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pr ... war-203009

Already not bad. If I was President of Russia, I would seriously consider this. But, other hand, if I was President of Russia, I would initially focus on Donbass only and would not move anywhere further. That's why I was so amazed at the early morning of February 24: "yawn... let's look at the news on the Internet... there should be something about... WTF??? " I (as great many others) was not afraid of the prospect of defeat, but of the prospect of a quick victory (did not happen). A huge region with nearly dead economy and 20-30 millions of impoverished and knowingly hostile population - is not a valuable prize, but a heavy weight chained to the leg.

[caltrek]

The transition from denial to bargaining stage... article from "National Interest"

A Proposed Peace Plan to End the Russo-Ukrainian War
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pr ... war-203009

While Western media outlets continue to mistakenly report that Ukraine is winning the war, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has indicated that Russia is making incremental progress towards achieving its military objectives. According to a recent Western intelligence report, even though the United States is providing Ukraine with four to five times more military aid than Kyiv spends on its armed forces each year, Ukraine is losing the Battle of the Donbass and suffering “extreme losses” while being “outgunned 20 to 1 in artillery.” Ukrainian troops are running out of ammunition, increasingly demoralized, and beginning to desert. The report also revealed that most Ukrainian artillery is limited to a range of twenty-five kilometers while Russian artillery and rocket launchers can strike from twelve times that distance. It also stated that Ukraine’s bargaining position has been weakened since Russia has more than ten times the number of prisoners of war than Ukraine...

What follows is a proposed fifteen-point peace plan to end the Russo-Ukrainian War. These are the best and most realistic terms Ukraine can hope for, as well as the terms most likely to be agreeable to both sides...

Fifteen Point Peace Plan to End the War in Ukraine

[...]

Already not bad. If I was President of Russia, I would seriously consider this. But, other hand, if I was President of Russia, I would initially focus on Donbass only and would not move anywhere further. That's why I was so amazed at the early morning of February 24: "yawn... let's look at the news on the Internet... there should be something about... WTF??? " I (as great many others) was not afraid of the prospect of defeat, but of the prospect of a quick victory (did not happen). A huge region with nearly dead economy and 20-30 millions of impoverished and knowingly hostile population - is not a valuable prize, but a heavy weight chained to the leg.

I welcome this as a constructive step toward a dialogue of how to achieve of peaceful solution of the civil war in Ukraine between Ukrainians and Russian invaders. A few other comments in response:

guaranteed by the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council

Russia is a member of the Security Council and cannot be trusted to ensure the security of Ukraine against further aggression from Russia.

Ukraine recognizes Russia's 2014 reunification with Crimea and renounces all intentions to recover it by force or otherwise.

While renouncing "intentions to recover by force" is reasonable, why should Ukraine reward Russian aggression "recognition"?

Ukraine will permanently suspend all NATO ties, including military trainers, exchanges, and joint military exercises, along with all NATO arms shipments except for small arms. Additionally, Ukraine will prohibit the stationing of NATO troops or bases on its territory...

It is very common in history for a country to sue for peace so that it can take advantage of a peaceful interlude to prepare for further expansion. Nothing has justified ties between Ukraine and NATO more than an unprovoked act of aggression on the part of Russia. One in which lies were publicly expressed concerning invasion intentions just prior to the actual invasion.

Ukraine agrees to destroy all of its “strike systems” under Russian supervision

More demands to disarm so as to pave the way for further invasion?

Furthermore, Ukraine shall be prohibited from developing weapons of mass destruction including nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons

Yes, Ukraine should agree to abide by international law restricting such weapons, as should Russia. Realistically, it would be absurd to demand that Ukraine be allowed to be a nuclear power, but greater assurances of its security are therefore needed.

There will be no reparations issued by either side and no international war crimes tribunals. Any war crimes tribunals shall be conducted by the nations to whom the offending troops belong.

Obvious reasons why this would be objectionable. Still, sovereignty by its nature has to be a consideration.

Upon the execution of this peace agreement by both parties, all post-invasion economic sanctions placed against Russia shall be immediately rescinded and any public and private Russian financial and economic assets that were seized will be returned to their owners...

While the normalization of economic relations would be desirable, Russia must understand that aggression is not to be rewarded. Only if full restoration of invaded territory, including the Crimea, is this demand then made reasonable.

The United States and NATO shall issue written guarantees that NATO will never expand eastward into additional former Soviet republics or along Russia's borders (i.e. Finland)...

I don't see how this can be acceptable given Russia's history of aggression.

Russia and NATO agree to commence discussions to include Russia in the security architecture of Europe, renew the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, and negotiate a follow-on agreement to the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty..

This should continue regardless of pursuit along the other tracts of negotiation.

I have laid down a pretty hard line, but the most important thing is to stop the human slaughter involved in this civil war. Obviously, it should be in the interest of Russia to achieve that goal. Whatever agreements are reached, I am sure they will occur whether I like them or not.

[ibm9000]

guaranteed by the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council
Russia is a member of the Security Council and cannot be trusted to ensure the security of Ukraine against further aggression from Russia.
Can be trusted that Iran is not going to be invaded?, or Iraq?, again.

Ukraine recognises Russia's 2014 reunification with Crimea and renounces all intentions to recover it by force or otherwise.
While renouncing "intentions to recover by force" is reasonable, why should Ukraine reward Russian aggression "recognition"?
To get peace?

Ukraine agrees to destroy all of its “strike systems” under Russian supervision
More demands to disarm so as to pave the way for further invasion?
Just like Norther Ireland...
But we know our willingness to sell them weapons... and they could be ready and stored in Poland, for example.

There will be no reparations issued by either side and no international war crimes tribunals. Any war crimes tribunals shall be conducted by the nations to whom the offending troops belong.
Obvious reasons why this would be objectionable. Still, sovereignty by its nature has to be a consideration.
Yes and in Iraq too, and let's not forget that in 1943 UK changed its Military Law... just getting ready for the future.

The United States and NATO shall issue written guarantees that NATO will never expand eastward into additional former Soviet republics or along Russia's borders (i.e. Finland)...
I don't see how this can be acceptable given Russia's history of aggression.
Should Panama ask for written guaranties... just in case?

It's call negotiation, not final agreement and I wonder how many corpses to reconquer what seems to be ceded: the south of Ukraine.

Probably certain Russian actually is in Severodonetsk.

[caltrek]

guaranteed by the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council
Russia is a member of the Security Council and cannot be trusted to ensure the security of Ukraine against further aggression from Russia.
Can be trusted that Iran is not going to be invaded?, or Iraq?, again.

Ukraine recognises Russia's 2014 reunification with Crimea and renounces all intentions to recover it by force or otherwise.
While renouncing "intentions to recover by force" is reasonable, why should Ukraine reward Russian aggression "recognition"?
To get peace?

Ukraine agrees to destroy all of its “strike systems” under Russian supervision
More demands to disarm so as to pave the way for further invasion?
Just like Norther Ireland...
But we know our willingness to sell them weapons... and they could be ready and stored in Poland, for example.

There will be no reparations issued by either side and no international war crimes tribunals. Any war crimes tribunals shall be conducted by the nations to whom the offending troops belong.
Obvious reasons why this would be objectionable. Still, sovereignty by its nature has to be a consideration.
Yes and in Iraq too, and let's not forget that in 1943 UK changed its Military Law... just getting ready for the future.

The United States and NATO shall issue written guarantees that NATO will never expand eastward into additional former Soviet republics or along Russia's borders (i.e. Finland)...
I don't see how this can be acceptable given Russia's history of aggression.
Should Panama ask for written guaranties... just in case?

It's call negotiation, not final agreement and I wonder how many corpses to reconquer what seems to be ceded: the south of Ukraine.

Probably certain Russian actually is in Severodonetsk.

No, Russian goodwill on the Security Council cannot be trusted. There are good reasons to keep that organization intact and operating, but that does not mean it should be given additional responsibilities.

Iran could be invaded again from several different directions and/or countries. As could Iraq. Conflicts there can be resolved within appropriate frameworks. That includes not only the Security Council, but the General Assembly as well as various regional organizations involving the participation of more than one country.

I am not an advisor to the Ukrainian government. What it does as a result of a gun being pointed to its head is its decision to make. Or least should be its decision to make. That does not mean we should ignore the fact that a gun (metaphorically speaking) is being held to its head.

If Panama wants additional guarantees, I would not personally object to the idea of granting them. I suspect they do not do so because they are satisfied with their current security arrangements. If you have any news or information to the contrary, please feel free to share it. Probably the Central America thread would be more appropriate unless you want to tie it into a more comprehensive discussion regarding Ukraine.

[Certain Russian user]

I have laid down a pretty hard line...

Yes, like a true winner. But the main message of this article was quite the opposite: to offer "the best and most realistic terms Ukraine can hope for" When I said "If I was President of Russia, I would seriously consider this" this only meant this offer would become good starting point for further talks. After all, these these imaginary conditions are very similar to Russia's own initial official demands and would almost certainly have been agreed in March 2022. But a lot has changed since then.

Anyway, here is nothing to discuss. Neither I'm Vladimir Putin, nor you're Zelensky (or Zelensky's puppeter).

Probably certain Russian actually is in Severodonetsk.

No, still in Samara. Actually, in February-March I thought I have some real (albeit slight) chance for a brief and unpleasant offline encounter with some western futuretimeliners. But this has not (yet?) happened. Instead of fighting somewhere among the ukrainian (or polish or romanian) ruins, I'm still lying on the beach near the Volga and watching the sunset.

[Certain Russian user]

Good news today. Getting close to Lysychansk: