Ukraine War Watch Thread

[caltrek]

The history of conflict going back to World War II definitely plays a part in the current crisis, although perhaps not in a way that one would suspect. From the paper edition of The Week:

Germans believe that they owe Russia special deference because the Nazis slaughtered so many Russians in World War II. Berlin not only refused to send Ukraine desperately needed weaponry, but even blocked NATO ally Estonia from giving Kyiv heavy artillery weapons that originally came from Germany.

The article goes on to state:

Europe needs to swallow its pride, said Jerdzej Beilecke in Rzeeczpospolita (Poland). The obvious move for our own "self-preservation" is for us to declare that NATO, not the EU, "will represent the interests of the West in the confrontation with Moscow." But French President Emmanuel Macron, who holds the EU rotating presidency, "cannot bring himself" to admit the EU must put its fate "in the hands of the Americans."

[weatheriscool]

UK fighter jets scrambled due to Russian military aircraft
Source: Associated Press

The United Kingdom's (U.K.) Royal Air Force said it had to scramble fighter jets in response to four Russian military aircraft approaching the country, The Associated Press reported.

The military force said Wednesday that the Russian strategic bombers were "intercepted and escorted," saying the four aircraft did not enter the U.K.'s airspace.

Authorities said the Royal Air Force jets took off from bases in Lossiemouth, Scotland, with a Voyager air-to-air refueling tanker that launched from Oxfordshire, England, joining them, according to the AP.

The Royal Air Force routinely intercepts approaching aircraft that are considered to be in the country's "area of interest."

Read more: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5924 ... n-military

[funkervogt]

This prediction was wrong.

December 3, 2021
Russia may stage a large-scale military intervention in the Ukrainian region of Donbass at the end of January, and it could involve around 94,300 troops, Ukrainian Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov claimed on Friday.
Speaking to parliament in Kiev, Reznikov said that his estimation of the time Russian forces could “reach escalation readiness” is the first month of next year and dubbed a military intervention a “likely scenario.”

https://thepressunited.com/updates/ukra ... n-january/

[weatheriscool]

NATO says Russian buildup in Belarus is biggest in 30 years
Source: AP

By LORNE COOK and SUZAN FRASER

BRUSSELS (AP) — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg expressed concern Thursday that Russia is continuing its military buildup around Ukraine, and that it has now deployed more troops and military equipment to Belarus than at any time in 30 years.

Meanwhile, more high-level diplomacy took place in Kyiv amid deep uncertainty about Russia’s intentions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a three-hour meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Ukrainian capital. French President Emmanuel Macron was due to hold phone talks with Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russia now has more than 100,000 troops stationed near Ukraine’s northern and eastern borders, raising concern that Moscow might invade again, as it did in 2014, and destabilize the Ukrainian economy. Russian officials deny that an invasion is planned.

“Over the last days, we have seen a significant movement of Russian military forces into Belarus. This is the biggest Russian deployment there since the Cold War,” Stoltenberg told reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 684dfcf07d

[caltrek]

caltrek: While you mention World War I and World War II, I should note that I have been reading Hanah Arendt's The Origins of Totalitarianism. She makes the point, If I can oversimplify for the moment, that these were in part explainable by looking at clashes between pan-German and pan-Slavic ideologies. These were in turn rooted in issues of identity and ideas of cultural superiority. They were only sometimes related to economic considerations.

Here, for example, is a passage from The Origins of Totalitarianism (pages 223-225):

Continental imperialism truly begins at home. If it shared with overseas imperialism the contempt for the narrowness of the nation-state, it opposed to it not so much economic arguments, which after all quite frequently expressed authentic national needs, as an "enlarged tribal consciousness" which was supposed to unite all people of similar folk origin, independent of history and no matter where they happened to live. Continental imperialism, therefore, started with a much closer affinity to race concepts, enthusiastically absorbed the tradition of race thinking, and relied very little on specific experiences. Its race concepts were completely ideological in basis and developed much more quietly into a convenient political weapon than similar theories expressed by overseas imperialists which could always claim a certain basis in authentic experience.

The pan-movements have generally been given scant attention in the discussion of imperialism. Their dreams of continental empires were overshadowed by the more tangible results of overseas expansion, and their lack of interest in economics stood in ridiculous contrast to the tremendous profits of early imperialism.
...
Their influence on intellectuals was even more pronounced - the Russian intelligentsia, with only a few exceptions, was Pan-Slavic, and Pan-Germanism started in Austria almost as a students' movement. Their chief difference from the more respectable imperialism of the Western nations was the lack of capitalist support; their attempts to expand were not and could not be preceded by the export of superfluous money and superfluous men, because Europe did not offer colonial opportunities for either. Among their leaders, we find therefore almost no businessmen and few adventurers, but many members of the free professions, teachers, and civil servants.

[wjfox]

The world’s top two authoritarians have teamed up. The US should be on alert.

February 6, 2022

This is big.

The two leading authoritarians of our time have declared unprecedented common cause—perhaps even a de facto security alliance—with aspirations of shaping a new world order to replace the one fashioned by the United States and its partners after World War II.

[...]

So they released the entirety of their audacious, 5,300-word joint statement in English this weekend, declaring that “a trend has emerged towards redistribution of power in the world”—namely toward them, and away from the United States and its democratic partners and allies.

[...]

A European senior official I spoke with, who tracks intelligence on Ukraine, considers the time of maximum danger for Ukraine to be after February 20, the last day of the Olympics, which coincides with the end of the massive “Allied Resolve” Russian military exercises in Belarus (which could mask preparations for invasion). It is also when the Ukrainian ground and rivers remain sufficiently frozen to allow for heavy military equipment to move most effectively.

Whatever Putin chooses regarding Ukraine, however, this week’s joint statement underscores a tectonic shift in global relations that will require far more creative, collaborative, and long-term thinking by the United States and its partners.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content ... -on-alert/

[caltrek]

Whatever Putin chooses regarding Ukraine, however, this week’s joint statement underscores a tectonic shift in global relations that will require far more creative, collaborative, and long-term thinking by the United States and its partners.

Unifying behind an ideology that actually embraces genuine democracy and something other than an economic system that produces huge inequalities of wealth should be part of that long-term thinking.

Having said that, I do agree that the expansionist impulses of both Putin and China represent a definite danger. Hong Kong was better as a democracy than as sort of neo-colony under Beijing's control. Taiwan deserves to find its own way, as did Tibet.

For his part, Putin has more in common with the mobsters that are sprinkled throughout the history of the U.S. than he does with just about any other historic analogy.

These alignments of different camps facing off against each other cold war style bring a great danger of the final result being World War III. There would be no winners in such a war, and the living survivors of such a cataclysm are very much likely to envy the dead.

[weatheriscool]

Biden vows no Nord Stream 2 if Russia invades Ukraine
Source: Associated Press

MOSCOW (AP) — In a flurry of diplomacy across two continents, President Joe Biden emerged from a meeting with Germany’s new leader Monday vowing the crucial Nord Stream 2 Russia-to-Germany gas pipeline would be blocked if Russia further invades Ukraine. Russia’s Vladimir Putin said the U.S. and its allies were the only ones talking about invasion.

Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron met for hours in Moscow at the same time Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke at the White House in efforts to defuse the crisis before armed conflict breaks out. Russia has massed thousands of troops at the Ukraine border, adding military might almost daily.

The White House has expressed increasing alarm about the prospects of a war, and Biden has been looking to solidify support among European allies for economy-jarring sanctions against Russia if it moves further with an invasion.

“We are jointly ready, and all of NATO is ready,” Biden said, referring to the powerful Western alliance, though Ukraine is not a member.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... a9bd82918d

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

Biden on Ukraine situation: 'Things could go crazy quickly'
Source: CNN

President Joe Biden on Thursday urged Americans in Ukraine to leave the country immediately, warning that "things could go crazy quickly" in the region.

"American citizens should leave now," Biden said in an upcoming interview that was taped Thursday with NBC News' Lester Holt.

Referring to Russia, which has amassed troops on its border with Ukraine, Biden said, "It's not like we're dealing with a terrorist organization. We're dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It's a very different situation and things could go crazy quickly."

Biden said during his NBC interview that "there's not" a situation that could prompt him to send US troops to rescue Americans attempting to exit Ukraine, adding, "That's a world war when Americans and Russia start shooting at one another."

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/10/politics ... index.html