Ukraine War Watch Thread

weatheriscool
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Long lines of traffic seen at some of Russia's land borders
Source: CNN
Social media video from Russia's land borders with several countries shows long lines of traffic trying to leave the country on the day after President Vladimir Putin announced a "partial mobilization."

There were queues at border crossings into Kazakhstan, Georgia and Mongolia. One video showed dozens of vehicles lining up at the Zemo Larsi/Verkhny Lars checkpoint on the Georgia-Russia border overnight Wednesday. That line appears to have grown longer Thursday. One video showed a long queue stretching into the mountains behind the crossing, with a man commenting that it was five to six kilometers long.

Another posted Thursday showed long lines at the Khaykhta crossing into Mongolia.

One man spoke over video recorded at the Troitsk crossing into Kazakhstan, where dozens of cars were lined up Thursday morning. "This is Troitsk, queues of trucks and passenger vehicles ... you can't see the start or the end of this queue ... everyone, everyone is fleeing Russia, all sorts."


Read more: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ru ... ae078f4ca2
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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caltrek
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What Putin’s Latest Threats Mean for the Risk of Nuclear War
by Jen Kirby
September 22, 2022

Introduction:
(Vox) “In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a speech Wednesday. “This is not a bluff.”

When a nuclear-armed state says it’s willing to use “all weapon systems available to us,” it is impossible not to take the threat seriously. For everyone involved in the war in Ukraine — Russia, Ukraine, and the West — Putin, at least rhetorically, raised the stakes of the conflict he started.

But for Russia watchers and nuclear experts, Putin’s warning about protecting Russia’s “territorial integrity” also added a new degree of unpredictability. Russian-backed officials in four Ukrainian regions partially occupied by Russian troops will soon hold referenda on formally joining Russia. Western countries backing Ukraine have already said they won’t recognize these sham votes. The Russian army also does not have full control over any of these territories — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson — but Moscow will almost certainly use these referenda as a pretext for formally annexing the territories. If that happens, as it’s expected to, some experts fear that Moscow will interpret any Ukrainian efforts to retake these lands as bringing the fight directly against Russia.

And so the question now is: what does Putin, exactly, consider a threat to Russia’s territorial integrity? And would he actually move to use nuclear weapons to defend it?

Only Putin, of course, knows the answers. But Vox reached out to Andrey Baklitskiy, senior researcher in weapons of mass destruction at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, to get a better sense of Russia’s military doctrine, where its nuclear arsenal fits in, and how Putin’s threats of territorial integrity may have broadened the circumstances of nuclear use.
Read more here: https://www.vox.com/world/2022/9/22/23 ... at-expert
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Outlook
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Outlook »

Mobilization in Russia won't end up helping them that much, however partial it may be. Contemporary warfare is more a matter of equipment than manpower, and it's still a big question as to whether Russia's defense industry can compete against western support, and whether China and India are willing to make the risk to offer advanced parts during a time of economic fragility. Mobilization will probably be more of a logistical burden to Russia, and will aggravate domestic instability.

Either way Russia is still destroying itself all because of nationalism and patriotism and I'm here for it. When Russians join the invasion force and get their legs torn apart for the nation, they'll see just how quickly "the nation" comes to save them. What a dumb war and waste of life.
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

It's pretty clear that Russia is trying to mobilize these numbers
First of all, making a law and using it for something else, even without secret clauses, has happened before. Anybody has been reading anything
about the NI Protocol?, the UK "version".


- supplying these 1 million
As you have already decided that they are going to be one million, maybe you should let the Stavka know. (Yes, I noticed the previous[ "it seems like").

- they are going to fail
So, you already know, good. Is Russia making everything possible to facilitate Ukrainian supplies?

- starving/freezing to death over the winter
I think that already happened, around Moscow, in 41/42. About "stories", yes, a lot of them, and twitters and youtube videos... (and tiktoks too, probably).

- this may ultimately decide
Or we could wait for 10 years, I read countries do that.

- Russia loses nearly 100,000
Or 300.000, just pick a number, it happened before, right?

- Ukraine will just have to
That has always been a dangerous policy, apart from all the wishful-thinking-conditions you need to get there.


I haven't been able to read anything else about that "source", the Kremlin hasn't denied it (yet?), do we have any new information? I think our
Russian friend is not the only one telling Fairy Tales.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by erowind »

Can we all at least agree that Ukraine isn't worth nuclear war? That it would be better to reach a diplomatic solution and deescalate than continue to push a government that clearly doesn't have regard for the lives of its own people or that of others even farther? On those grounds alone shouldn't we oppose greater escalation on the behalf of our countries? The Biden Administration has made it clear at this point that the American strategy is to pressure for Russian regime change.

Say that all the propaganda and points made by people here are correct. Putin isn't willing to backdown and will escalate because he's a sociopath and the Russian government will back him in this decision. Shouldn't we be trying to avoid pushing him that far?
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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erowind wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:21 am Can we all at least agree that Ukraine isn't worth nuclear war? That it would be better to reach a diplomatic solution and deescalate than continue to push a government that clearly doesn't have regard for the lives of its own people or that of others even farther? On those grounds alone shouldn't we oppose greater escalation on the behalf of our countries? The Biden Administration has made it clear at this point that the American strategy is to pressure for Russian regime change.

Say that all the propaganda and points made by people here are correct. Putin isn't willing to backdown and will escalate because he's a sociopath and the Russian government will back him in this decision. Shouldn't we be trying to avoid pushing him that far?
What makes you think:

(a) Putin is even interested in diplomacy
(b) Putin will be satisfied with a small sliver of Ukraine, and will stop at that, given everything that's happened since 2014 (and further back)

?
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funkervogt
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

It's wishful thinking to assume 300,000 more men won't help Russia on the battlefield, however ill-trained and ill-equipped they will be.

Wars have different ups and downs for all sides, and Ukraine's successful counteroffensive shouldn't be taken to mean Russia is destined to lose. A theme in Russian history is bouncing back from major disasters, however painful and costly it may be to do so.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Xyls »

erowind wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:21 am Can we all at least agree that Ukraine isn't worth nuclear war? That it would be better to reach a diplomatic solution and deescalate than continue to push a government that clearly doesn't have regard for the lives of its own people or that of others even farther? On those grounds alone shouldn't we oppose greater escalation on the behalf of our countries? The Biden Administration has made it clear at this point that the American strategy is to pressure for Russian regime change.

Say that all the propaganda and points made by people here are correct. Putin isn't willing to backdown and will escalate because he's a sociopath and the Russian government will back him in this decision. Shouldn't we be trying to avoid pushing him that far?
No. This is appeasement and that does not work. If Putin wants to f*ck around, then let him find out. Putin is the person who is scared not us...
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