Ukraine War Watch Thread

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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

Mark Hertling is giving his opinion.

He commanded the 1st Armoured Div. in Iraq, where he achieved complete victory (right?). I wonder where he is getting those "60.000" dead from, that could mean from 300.000 to 400.000 casualties or more; 2 to 3 times the troops deployed.
-you can’t issue equipment, uniforms, ammo, food, supplies, spare parts, that aren’t there (sanctions do work) in 2 months.
Because he has been checking it personally?, because that is our estimate?, because it never happened before? Generals, sometimes, are over-optimistics and they don't send enough troops and they have to do a "surge".
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

M. Hertling is an actual General, not an armchair general like us (like me, at least), but that doesn't mean that whatever he says is "correct"; there is also an authority bias.
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

Pathos and Panic: Russians Are Mobilized for an Undeclared War
by a person who is kept anonymous on order to protect against possible reprisals.
October 6, 2022

Introduction:
(Mother Jones) Russia is not at war, despite what you may have heard. Despite the mobilization of reservists, the stories and images of destruction and death, despite the refugees fleeing. Russia is not at war, as Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the Kremlin stressed in a recent interview. Instead, it is conducting a special military operation “to fulfill certain goals in Ukraine.” Reservists have had to be mobilized for this special military operation, half a year since it began, because “we have been de facto confronted…with the NATO block and all its logistics capabilities.”

Referring to the Special Military Operation as war is still illegal in Russia, punishable by up to 15 years in prison. It also happens to be illegal to cross into the territory of a neighboring sovereign nation, armed, without a declaration of war. But while people do call the special military operation a war in casual conversations, they rarely question this operation’s legality: not even as men receive their mobilization notices, board buses, and head to the front.


Conclusion:
…they do not organize political protests to end this “special military operation” …And not only because they fear the police. People in Russia do protest when they feel it is necessary. They protest corrupt local governance, or landfills being dug in their backyards. Sometimes these public actions turn violent, like the anti-mobilization protests in Dagestan have. But this undeclared war is not something that most people in Russia think to protest. The idea simply does not occur.

Is there hope? Perhaps it is with the enduring dignity of these mobilized middle-aged men, their friends, and their families. The internet is full of videos of them boarding the buses, piss drunk, getting into fistfights, asking who’s going to feed their wives and children once they get killed. On September 30, while members of Putin’s High Society celebrated the annexation of Ukrainian territories, a bus full of mobilized men flipped in Tatarstan. According to eyewitness accounts, one of the men threw himself on the steering wheel, drunk. Perhaps Putin’s poorly oiled military machine will choke on these fine everyday guys and finally sputter dead.
Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... ared-war/
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Source Indicates U.S. Believes Elements Within Ukraine’s Government Authorized Assassination Near Moscow
by Natasha Bertrand and Katie Bo Lillis
October 6, 2022

Introduction:
Washington CNN —

The US intelligence community believes that the car bombing that killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of prominent Russian political figure Alexander Dugin, was authorized by elements within the Ukrainian government, sources briefed on the intelligence told CNN.

The US was not aware of the plan beforehand, according to the sources, and it is still unclear who exactly the US believes signed off on the assassination. It is also not clear whether the US intelligence community believes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was aware of the plot or authorized it.

But the intelligence finding, first reported by the New York Times, would seem to corroborate elements of the Russian authorities’ findings that the car bombing was “pre-planned.” Russia had accused Ukrainian nationals of being responsible for the attack, which Ukraine had strongly denied in the aftermath of the explosion.

Asked to comment, a Ukrainian defense intelligence official told CNN Wednesday evening following publication of the latest reports that their agency had no new information on Dugina’s death. Shortly after her death, the same official had told CNN that Ukraine had nothing to do with it.

The National Security Council, CIA and State Department declined to comment.
Read more here: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/05/politic ... ndex.html
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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Yuli Ban
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Yuli Ban »

Biden: Nuclear 'Armageddon' risk highest since '62 crisis
President Joe Biden said Thursday that the risk of nuclear “Armageddon” is at the highest level since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, as Russian officials speak of the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons after suffering massive setbacks in the eight-month invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking at a fundraiser for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Biden said Russian President Vladimir Putin was “a guy I know fairly well” and the Russian leader was “not joking when he talks about the use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons.”

Biden added, “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” He suggested the threat from Putin is real “because his military is — you might say — significantly underperforming.”

U.S. officials for months have warned of the prospect that Russia could use weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine as it has faced a series of strategic setbacks on the battlefield, though Biden’s remarks marked the starkest warnings yet issued by the U.S. government about the nuclear stakes.

It was not immediately clear whether Biden was referring to any new assessment of Russian intentions. As recently as this week, though, U.S. officials have said they have seen no change to Russia’s nuclear forces that would require a change in the alert posture of U.S. nuclear forces.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
weatheriscool
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by weatheriscool »

US believes elements within Ukraine's government authorized assassination near Moscow, sources say
Source: CNN
The US intelligence community believes that the car bombing that killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of prominent Russian political figure Alexander Dugin, was authorized by elements within the Ukrainian government, sources briefed on the intelligence told CNN.

The US was not aware of the plan beforehand, according to the sources, and it is still unclear who exactly the US believes signed off on the assassination. It is also not clear whether the US intelligence community believes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was aware of the plot or authorized it.
Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/05/politics ... index.html

I hope they kill Putin soon!
Xyls
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Xyls »

Hopes high in battle for Ukraine’s jewel of the south

https://www.afr.com/world/europe/hopes- ... 006-p5bnon

As I said a few months ago. Kherson will be the decisive battle of the war. I don't consider these offensives part of the Battle of Kherson yet, but if Ukraine manages to oust Russia from the city the morale blow the Russian army might be impossible for Putin to overcome. I already think I forsee what the strategy is going to be and it is likely going to be a grinding siege in the winter to retake it.

I imagine Ukraine is likely trying to get as close as possible so that himars and anti-aircraft systems can disrupt support from Crimea as much as possible. Then with Russia's poor supply they are probably going to let Father Winter do his damage to Russian forces while breaking their morale in a slow moving crawl into the city.

I expect this city to be a battle starting in December and lasting through the better part of the winter.
Xyls
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Xyls »

Leader of Russia-annexed region calls for Russia’s Military Chief to ‘shoot himself’

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-719104
The recently-appointed leader of the annexed Kherson region of southern Ukraine called on Russia’s Defense Minister and Putin confidante Sergei Shoigu to “shoot himself” in a video posted on his Telegram channel Thursday.

The Kremlin-installed deputy head of the annexed Kherson region, Kirill Stremousov, criticized the Russian military response amid a recent Ukrainian counteroffensive in the region, which led to massive gains by Ukraine.
Lmao... with friends like these...
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

LONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence agencies believe parts of the Ukrainian government authorised a car bomb attack near Moscow in August that killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist, the New York Times reported.
I thought we did not believe that. Question: is Ukraine a terrorist state? (If...).

Let's see...
Russia doesn't have enough troops... (like in Iraq) they are a bunch of incompetents... commanded by an idiot... while Ukraine, they are a bunch of heroes, commanded by a genius, with a lot of western superior technology weapons... The Russians are still there.
The fact is that Russia still holds a good chunk of Ukraine: the narrative, has to be wrong.
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

Pathos and Panic: Russians Are Mobilized for an Undeclared War
We all know that Vietnam was never a "war" and that when the US Army invaded (campaign) Cambodia there was no War Declaration. Yes, free speech
and the press were different then.
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