Ukraine War Watch Thread

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raklian
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Xyls wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:41 pm

This is pretty much my thought. Any nuclear strike on Ukraine no matter how small will likely result in a full conventional NATO intervention into Ukraine, with a no-fly zone. If not an outright transfer of nuclear weapons to Ukraine to use as they wish against Russia. With civil strife starting within Russia as well it will likely also result in NATO stirring up a civil war in Russia's south.
It's basically signalling to Putin's inner circle to do something about him.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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It's not even Putin that needs to be dealt with it's Putin needs to deal with his nationalist circles. If Putin was smart he should've targeted Russian ultra-nationalists for mobilization first to get rid of them which then gives him an offramp to descalate the war. Instead he is trying to target minorities which is likely going to start a civil war. Basically the West doesn't want Putin to fall, but Putin is not helping himself by being a dumbass.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Xyls wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:54 pm It's not even Putin that needs to be dealt with it's Putin needs to deal with his nationalist circles. If Putin was smart he should've targeted Russian ultra-nationalists for mobilization first to get rid of them which then gives him an offramp to descalate the war. Instead he is trying to target minorities which is likely going to start a civil war. Basically the West doesn't want Putin to fall, but Putin is not helping himself by being a dumbass.
Be that as it may be, it seems to me that the threat of "catastrophic consequences" by the USA is aimed at the top Russian leaders, civic and military, signaling to them unless they do something about Putin's escalatory rhetoric, they will lose whatever prestige and influence they have now. We've reached a point USA is now probably redirecting resources into engaging in a psychological warfare against Russia which I think Biden is allowing as long as it doesn't risk direct combat with Russian assets unless the situation markedly escalates because Russia actually used a nuke.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Russian Officials Play Down Putin’s Nuclear Threat
September 23, 2022

Introduction:
(Al Jazeera) Days after Russian President Vladimir Putin made a thinly veiled nuclear threat to Ukraine and its Western allies, Russian officials played down the warning.

On Friday, Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, said Moscow was not threatening the use of nuclear weapons and that any confrontation with NATO and the United States was not in the Kremlin’s interests.

“We are not threatening anyone with nuclear weapons,” Ryabkov told reporters. “The criteria for their use are outlined in Russia’s military doctrine.”
In a televised address earlier this week, Putin said he was “not bluffing” about using nuclear weapons if Russian territories were threatened as he announced a partial mobilisation to boost the military fighting in Ukraine.

But Ryabkov said Russia was not seeking “open confrontation” with the US or NATO and did not want the situation to escalate further.
Read more here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/ ... -minister
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UN Investigators Just Issued Their First Report on Russian War Crimes in Ukraine. It Is Horrific.
by Hannah Levintova
September 24, 2022

Introduction:
(Mother Jones) On Friday, investigators working for the United Nations delivered a sobering statement to the UN Human Rights Council detailing evidence of Russian war crimes committed as part of the nation’s ongoing occupation of Ukraine, including the rape of children, torture, beatings, electric shocks, forced nudity, and the disappearance of people taken into Russian detention.

These findings came as part of the first official update from three experts who were asked to investigate allegations of war crimes that first arose this spring, soon after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Their investigation focused on four areas of Ukraine—Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy—where horrific reports of alleged war crimes, including the rape of civilians and summary executions, began to emerge between late February and March of this year as Russia began its war. Friday’s report is the first from the UN to bring forth extensive evidence backing up these allegations, including through interviews with dozens of victims and witnesses.

“We are concerned by the suffering that the armed conflict in Ukraine has imposed on the civilian population,” Erik Mose, chairman of the investigative commission, told the UN.

Mose’s team told the UN they’d interviewed 150 victims and witnesses across 27 towns and settlements, studied documents, and inspected graves, weapon remnants, and places where detention and torture occurred.
Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... -ukraine/
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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When Everything Is a Weapon, Everyone Is a Victim
by Gautam Chikermane
September 26, 2022

Extract:
(Observer Research Foundation via Eurasia Review) On 2 September 2022, Russia indefinitely suspended Nord Stream gas to Europe.

Over the next six months, instead of gas, Russia will export an idea that Europe has long forgotten— discomfort. To borrow from the clinical manual for nursing practice that asks patients to describe the intensity of pain from 0 (no pain) to 10 (worst pain imaginable), an entire continent will be writhing in discomfort between October 2022 and April 2023. For citizens of northern Europe, the pain will be 7 to 10, severe. In southern Europe, it will be 4 to 6, moderate. In between will be islands of hyper-pain and no pain.

On the other side, Russia which is inflicting this pain as part of its strategic design will remain unaffected in the short term. In a conflict that is expected to last longer, 12 to 24 months of gas-free revenues to a nation already under great financial stress will not matter. Further, even though Moscow may not feel the pressures of politics of the sort that Berlin or Rome does, at some point the economic pain delivered through sanctions will begin to pinch. And if we peep into recent history, there are the Russian mothers, who in the 1980s pressured the Kremlin to give answers for their children returning in coffins from Afghanistan, and in 2000 had a face-off with Putin when the nuclear submarine Kursk sank with 118 sons in it. The political system did not overturn then, and it will not capsize now, but under the scrutiny of the weak and the powerless, it will definitely face pressures.

On 17 September 2022, in response to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s advice that today “is not the era of war”, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said, “We want all of this to end as soon as possible”. The Russia-Ukraine conflict should inform democratic debates in the region about the futility of power plays. It should tame the aggressive ambitions of China in Taiwan, the South China Sea region, and India. And even as soldiers and citizens face the brunt of these games, leaderships need to evaluate the larger risk-reward equilibrium.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/26092022 ... analysis/
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Ukraine Situation Report: Multiple Russian Aircraft Shot Down In A Day
by Stetson Payne and Tyler Rogoway
September 24, 2022

Introduction:
(The Drive) A day after air defenses had to confront waves of Iranian-supplies suicide drones, Ukraine says it shot down 4 Russian tactical jet aircraft Saturday over the frontlines.

The Ukrainian General Staff claimed troops shot down two Russian Su-30SM Flankers, a Su-25SM Frogfoot, a Su-34 Fullback, five drones, and a cruise missile. Footage showed a Su-34 trailing fire from its right engine over the frontline in Kharkiv Oblast, with a later clip showing a fireball and crash site in the area.

(See linked article for Twitter feeds)

Later videos showed an Su-30SM crashing after being hit by a missile, with two parachutes seen descending nearby. Ukraine's total shootdown claims cannot be independently confirmed at this time, though multiple aircraft do appear to have been shot down.

It isn't clear what has caused this spike in sorties and shoot-downs, but it is possible that pressure for the Russian Air Force to halt Ukraine's progress on the battlefield and complicate its forces' ability to hold recaptured territory has increased.
Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... -in-a-day
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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caltrek wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:41 pm UN Investigators Just Issued Their First Report on Russian War Crimes in Ukraine. It Is Horrific.
by Hannah Levintova
September 24, 2022

Introduction:
(Mother Jones) On Friday, investigators working for the United Nations delivered a sobering statement to the UN Human Rights Council detailing evidence of Russian war crimes committed as part of the nation’s ongoing occupation of Ukraine, including the rape of children, torture, beatings, electric shocks, forced nudity, and the disappearance of people taken into Russian detention.

These findings came as part of the first official update from three experts who were asked to investigate allegations of war crimes that first arose this spring, soon after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Their investigation focused on four areas of Ukraine—Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy—where horrific reports of alleged war crimes, including the rape of civilians and summary executions, began to emerge between late February and March of this year as Russia began its war. Friday’s report is the first from the UN to bring forth extensive evidence backing up these allegations, including through interviews with dozens of victims and witnesses.

“We are concerned by the suffering that the armed conflict in Ukraine has imposed on the civilian population,” Erik Mose, chairman of the investigative commission, told the UN.

Mose’s team told the UN they’d interviewed 150 victims and witnesses across 27 towns and settlements, studied documents, and inspected graves, weapon remnants, and places where detention and torture occurred.
Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... -ukraine/

But apparently it's all NATO's fault, and Russia deserves concessions.

/s
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

This is pretty much my thought. Any nuclear strike on Ukraine...
- a full conventional NATO intervention
How legal is a NATO intervention in Ukraine? Conventional NATO war against Russia... and you don't think that is WW3?

- a no-fly zone
A no-fly zone when Russia is already flying combat missions there is WW3; and a direct attack on Russian forces.

- transfer of nuclear weapons
Scalation! great idea, it always works so well. This case specially, final prize: WW3!

- civil strife starting
Is it?, no rallies and protests around here?

- stirring up a civil war
Another great idea! and coming straight from our higher moral standards; not to mention the -unpredictable?- consequences, because they always get such beautiful results...

It's basically signalling to
Or not and it's politics, Putin basically signalling stop messing with my war.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

That
Xyls
meme reminds me of...

I ain't no senator's son...
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