Ukraine War Watch Thread

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funkervogt
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

Russia has already reduced the amount of natural gas it is supplying the rest of Europe, spuriously blaming "technical issues." The supplies will almost certainly be reduced further later this year, as winter arrives and Russia tries to pressure NATO to cut its support for Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61899509

Between this, the growing global food shortages, and the worsening U.S. economy, I have the strong feeling we're in the "calm before the storm," and the world situation will be pretty bad in six months.
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Certain Russian user
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Certain Russian user »

funkervogt wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:06 pm At this point in the War, Russia's artillery advantage is the decisive factor.
Yes, but not just that. Experience and morale too. Ukrainian army, though more numerous, largely consists of conscripts (especially now), while Russian forces in Ukraine - entirely of contract soldiers. If you were grabbed on the street and after a few weeks of training (in best case) thrown into battle to met Russian "musicians" - the result is completely predictable. Some men joined the so-called "Territorial Defense Forces" in order to serve in their own region (that is, far from the frontline). This did not help, Ukrainian government changed the rules and those "territorials" were sent to Donbass.

This has been especially noticeable in recent days. Something broke in them...

=== === ===

Today's map (battle for Lysychansk has begun, yesterdays Hirs'ke-Zolote pocket is almost over):

Image
We are few, and the enemy is strong, but God is not in power, but in truth. Some with weapons, and others on horseback, but we call on the name of the Lord our God; they were defeated and fell, but we stood and stand straight.
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Time_Traveller
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Time_Traveller »

Fighting entering ‘climax’ in key regions, says Ukraine
Thu 23 Jun 2022

The battle for two key cities in eastern Ukraine is edging towards “a fearsome climax”, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said, as the war in Ukraine is set to enter its fourth month on Friday.

Russia’s efforts to capture Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk – the two remaining cities under Ukrainian control in Luhansk – have turned into a bloody war of attrition, with both sides inflicting heavy casualties. Moscow, over the last two weeks, has managed to make steady gains.

“The fighting is entering a sort of fearsome climax”, said Oleksiy Arestovych in an interview late on Wednesday.

Serhiy Haidai, the governor of the Luhansk region, one of two in the eastern Donbas, said on Thursday morning that Russian forces have been “successful” in their advances. He added that enemy forces had captured Loskutivka, a settlement to the south of Lysychansk, which threatened to isolate Ukrainian troops.

“In order to avoid encirclement, our command could order that the troops retreat to new positions,” Haidai said in a post on Telegram. Russian state news agency TASS cited Russian-backed separatists saying Lysychansk was now surrounded and cut off from supplies after Russia captured a road linking the city to Ukrainian-held territories.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... lysychansk
"We all have our time machines, don't we. Those that take us back are memories...And those that carry us forward, are dreams."

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Vakanai
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Vakanai »

funkervogt wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:01 pm Russia has already reduced the amount of natural gas it is supplying the rest of Europe, spuriously blaming "technical issues." The supplies will almost certainly be reduced further later this year, as winter arrives and Russia tries to pressure NATO to cut its support for Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61899509

Between this, the growing global food shortages, and the worsening U.S. economy, I have the strong feeling we're in the "calm before the storm," and the world situation will be pretty bad in six months.
The fact that the past couple of years, which are easily the worst years globally in my lifetime, could be considered "calm" to what's coming is downright terrifying.
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Certain Russian user
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Certain Russian user »

^ ^ ^ That person above asked me to never quote him, so I will not. But my post is a reply to his:
This is the world of new Cold War with main actors waging local wars in third countries.
This is the de-globalized fragmented world of military-political blocs.
This is the world of a thinning middle class and exploding inequality.
This is the world where neoliberal centrism is in crisis, and left and right radicalism on the rise.
This is the world of systemic state terrorism masquerading as non-state.
This is the world of permanent state cyber warfare masquerading as non-state.
This is the world of conventional, robotic, hypersonic and nuclear-missile weapons race with a general increase in the number of warheads and delivery vehicles.
This is the world of militarized outer space and its growing role in global confrontation.
This is the world where treaties mean almost nothing, and state borders change, because they are not guaranteed by anything but force.
This is the world of total surveillance and indirect state control.
This is the world of total control of the digital environment, censorship and fragmentation of the Internet.
This is the world of profaned and helpless interstate institutions, starting with the UN.
This is the world of valued non-renewable resources and devalued service economy.

Looks gloomy, but we've already bought a ticket for this train, which is too late to jump off. In fact, the brave new world will come only when we go through the ensuing troubled times of the transforming world order.
We are few, and the enemy is strong, but God is not in power, but in truth. Some with weapons, and others on horseback, but we call on the name of the Lord our God; they were defeated and fell, but we stood and stand straight.
weatheriscool
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Officials: US to send rocket systems, other aid to Ukraine
Source: Associated Press via MSN
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. will send another $450 million in military aid to Ukraine, including some additional medium-range rocket systems, U.S. officials said Thursday.

The latest package will include a number of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, and is expected to be anounced later Thursday. The initial four HIMARS that the U.S. sent have already gone into Ukraine and are in the hand of troops there. The package will also include ammunition and other supplies.

The new aid comes just a week after the U.S. announced it will send $1 billion in military aid to Ukraine, and as the Russian military continues to slowly expand its control in the eastern Donbas region. Ukrainian leaders have persistently asked for the more advanced, precision rocket systems in order to better fight back against Russia. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide details ahead of an announcement.
Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/world/of ... ar-AAYN1Kz
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funkervogt
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

Vakanai wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:39 pm
funkervogt wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:01 pm Russia has already reduced the amount of natural gas it is supplying the rest of Europe, spuriously blaming "technical issues." The supplies will almost certainly be reduced further later this year, as winter arrives and Russia tries to pressure NATO to cut its support for Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61899509

Between this, the growing global food shortages, and the worsening U.S. economy, I have the strong feeling we're in the "calm before the storm," and the world situation will be pretty bad in six months.
The fact that the past couple of years, which are easily the worst years globally in my lifetime, could be considered "calm" to what's coming is downright terrifying.
At least COVID-19 will have receded by this winter.
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Certain Russian user
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Certain Russian user »

There are reports (yeah, unconfirmed) that Russian aviation and artillery decimating Ukrainian troops retreating from Lysychansk and that the Lysychansk-Seversk road became the new "Highway of Death". Not as large-scale, of course, as what the Americans have done in Iraq, but still...

Your face when you have read too much of WjFox and Andmar74, but then went offline and faced the "already defeated" Russian army:

Image
We are few, and the enemy is strong, but God is not in power, but in truth. Some with weapons, and others on horseback, but we call on the name of the Lord our God; they were defeated and fell, but we stood and stand straight.
Vakanai
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Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2022 10:23 pm

Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Vakanai »

funkervogt wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 3:45 am
Vakanai wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:39 pm
funkervogt wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:01 pm Russia has already reduced the amount of natural gas it is supplying the rest of Europe, spuriously blaming "technical issues." The supplies will almost certainly be reduced further later this year, as winter arrives and Russia tries to pressure NATO to cut its support for Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61899509

Between this, the growing global food shortages, and the worsening U.S. economy, I have the strong feeling we're in the "calm before the storm," and the world situation will be pretty bad in six months.
The fact that the past couple of years, which are easily the worst years globally in my lifetime, could be considered "calm" to what's coming is downright terrifying.
At least COVID-19 will have receded by this winter.
I will believe that when I see that...
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

No, Russian goodwill on the Security Council cannot be trusted. There are good reasons to keep that organisation intact and operating, but that does not mean it should be given additional responsibilities.
Agreed as long we keep in mind that US cannot be trusted either, who can be trusted?


I am not an advisor to the Ukrainian government. What it does as a result of a gun being pointed to its head is its decision to make. Or least should be its decision to make. That does not mean we should ignore the fact that a gun (metaphorically speaking) is being held to its head.

US was complaining, in the past, because Europe was using "non-coercitive diplomacy".

If Panama wants additional guarantees, I would not personally object to the idea of granting them. I suspect they do not do so because they are satisfied with their current security arrangements. If you have any news or information to the contrary, please feel free to share it. Probably the Central America thread would be more appropriate unless you want to tie it into a more comprehensive discussion regarding Ukraine.

Agreed, just...
what country is going to give what guarantee to what country in case of what country does what?
It sounds like WWI, and still I cannot see Russia and US are not going to do whatever they want.
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