Military drones - Lessons from the Ukraine War

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funkervogt
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Military drones - Lessons from the Ukraine War

Post by funkervogt »

Here's a great analysis:


Some key points:
-The effectiveness of drones is exaggerated by survivorship bias. We don't see all the videos of failed drone attacks or of drones being shot down before they can finish their missions because the human operators gain nothing from publishing the footage or because the footage is destroyed along with the crashed drone. On the internet, you only see the videos of successful drone attacks.
-The pace of military drone development accelerated during the last decade's Syrian Civil War and has accelerated again since the start of the Ukraine War.
-Drones are poised to become disruptive battlefield technologies.
-The description of highly successful drone attacks against weaker Russian units (start at the 36:00 mark) is chilling. That, and not a human-sized T-800 chasing you down, is what a dystopian future looks like.
-Efficient, cost-effective countermeasures will need to be developed. These could take the form of miniature, ground-launched missiles or ground-based light projectile weapons that can lock on to small drones and hit them with proximity-fused bullets or grenades.

Let me add that those same anti-drone weapons will doubtless find other battlefield applications. For example, if I have an advanced, automatic grenade launcher on the back of a pickup truck that has a computerized optic that can recognize drones in flight, aim at them, and shoot them down with a precisely time-fused grenade, what would stop me from aiming the gun horizontally to also hit enemy infantry and vehicles? The optic would also have the ability to recognize humans, tanks and other things.

Such a weapon sounds similar to the XM-29, which failed, but which will probably turn out to have been an idea ahead of its time.


The main video also gives a glimpse into the future of military drone technology and tactics by describing a 2016 exercise where three U.S. F/A-18 fighters dropped "bombs" that were full of mini-drones. Upon reaching low altitudes, the bombs opened up, releasing their loads of drones in the air. The drones activated their engines, formed into a swarm, and performed a mission together. That concept is a re-hashing of the WWII "Bat Bomb," which, like the XM-29, failed, but merely because it was ahead of its time.


Imagine a big bomber flying over an enemy city. The belly opens and what look like large bombs fall out. However, they lack explosives, and at 10,000 ft in altitude, they open, releasing a swarm of 50,000 mini-drones, each equipped with a grenade-sized bomblet. They all have highly advanced sensors and targeting computers, made cheap by Moore's Law. Some of them fly into electrical substations and power lines, blacking out the whole city, while others with incendiary loads crash through windows and ignite inside buildings, causing fires all over the city. Others target police cars, ambulances and fire trucks to cripple the emergency response force, while others kill random people across the city to spread terror by making sure everyone sees or knows someone who is killed, regardless of what neighborhood they live in. AI and robotics will make conventional warfare as deadly as nuclear warfare again, and give us another means to exterminate our own species.
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funkervogt
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Re: Military drones - Lessons from the Ukraine War

Post by funkervogt »

Also, drones could get quieter in the future thanks to toroidal rotors.


A simple adaptive camouflage feature, using this technology or something similar, would also make the drones harder to see.


In the future, there will be small drones that can loiter one or more miles high, where they are inaudible to the human ear and impossible to see unless you know what you're looking for, and which can drop mini guided bombs that can steer themselves into the top of your head.
Nanotechandmorefuture
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Re: Military drones - Lessons from the Ukraine War

Post by Nanotechandmorefuture »

funkervogt wrote: Sun Feb 12, 2023 3:55 pm A simple adaptive camouflage feature, using this technology or something similar, would also make the drones harder to see.


In the future, there will be small drones that can loiter one or more miles high, where they are inaudible to the human ear and impossible to see unless you know what you're looking for, and which can drop mini guided bombs that can steer themselves into the top of your head.
Would make mirage tanks from red alert 2 and other cool stuff interesting. There was already the cool color changing BMW at CES 2023 I believe so that is nice.
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caltrek
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Re: Military drones - Lessons from the Ukraine War

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I suppose one of the “lessons” will be in the arena of diplomacy instead of just technology or strictly military science. Lessons such as what happens when a drone is downed in international air space:

MQ-9 Sensor Video Showing Collision With Russian Su-27 Released
by Thomas Newdick
March 16, 2023

Introduction:
(The Drive) The U.S. Department of Defense has released a video showing part of the encounter between a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 Reaper and two Russian Su-27 Flanker fighter jets over the Black Sea on March 14 that resulted in the drone being lost. This seems to confirm that one of the Su-27s struck the drone’s propeller, although it remains unclear to what degree that action was deliberate or a misjudgment.
Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... -released

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caltrek
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Re: Military drones - Lessons from the Ukraine War

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Another "lesson" will be which defensive measures are effective, and which ones do not work.

Purported Video Shows Drone Boats Blowing Up During Sevastopol Attack
Howard Altman
March 23, 2023

Introduction:
(The Drive) We are getting what appear to be new views of the three Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels (USV) that took part in a multi-domain attack on Sevastopol, home of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, on Wednesday.

The grainy, black-and-white video, set to techno music and first posted on Telegram, splices together several angles of the USVs attempting to enter the largest harbor on the occupied Crimean peninsula. As the USVs approached the harbor, some appear to have encountered an obstacle. One of the USVs hit the obstacle and exploded, while two others may have jumped over it, traveling further into the harbor. But apparently both exploded before they could hit any targets. Yesterday, a video, which is also seen at the end of this montage, looks like one explosion on the harbor may have been caused by a friendly fire ricochet.

Regardless, assuming the videos are legitimate, and they do match the general account of what happened, they offer a new view of the operation and Russia's response to it.

Russia has built up layered defenses in the air, on land, and at sea around the harbor in Sevastopol, and especially at its entrance. These have only gotten more elaborate after repeated drone attacks of increasing sophistication.

In addition to the USVs, the Russian occupation governor claimed Sevastopol was also attacked by an aerial drones as well. Ukraine, as we have written before, attempted a similar large-scale attack in October.
Read more here (includes You Tube videos and Twitter feeds): https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... l-attack
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caltrek
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Re: Military drones - Lessons from the Ukraine War

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Ukraine Situation Report: Huge Explosions Rock Crimean Ammo Depot
by Stetson Payne
July 22, 2023

Introduction:
(The Drive) Aseries of explosions at an ammunition depot near the Crimean town of Octiabrskoe led to evacuations amid several Ukrainian strikes on the occupied peninsula.

Towering explosions shook what was reportedly a Russian ammunition depot and railyard in the town north of Simferopol, capital of the Crimean Autonomous Republic. An air base near the town was also reportedly attacked.

(See linked article for related Twitter feeds)

Of particular note, the attacks brought rail traffic on the state-owned Crimean Railway to a halt, including the Kerch Strait Bridge. The rail line connecting Simferopol (as well as western port cities of Sevastopol and Yevpatoriya) runs north through Octiabrskoe to Dzhankoi, then back southeast to Feodosia and the Kerch Strait.

(See linked article for related Twitter feeds)

The Russian Ministry of Defense has since confirmed a Ukrainian kamikaze drone struck a Black Sea Fleet ammunition and fuel depot in the area, leading to an evacuation of all residents within 5,000 meters of the fire.

Saturday’s explosions are the most recent in an ongoing series of strikes as Ukraine targets Russian infrastructure, in particular the transport and storage of supplies. Between drones in the air and at sea, cruise missiles, and the prospect of special operations deep behind enemy lines, Ukraine continue to focus on priority logistical targets. After all, fighting at the frontline is only made easier when the enemy can neither resupply nor effectively reinforce its myriad defensive positions.
Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... mmo-depot
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caltrek
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Re: Military drones - Lessons from the Ukraine War

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Ukraine’s Rare Skyguard Air Defense System Attacked By Russian Drone In Video
by Oliver Parken
July 25, 2023

Introduction:
(The Drive) Video footage has emerged that appears to show a Russian loitering munition, or kamikaze drone, striking a Skyguard control station of the Ukrainian armed forces. The control station further looks to be part of a ground-based air defense (GBAD) system that uses the Aspide surface-to-air missile. If that was indeed a Skyguard/Aspide system, it may be one of the only examples of its kind received by Ukraine to date. The video underscores the ongoing threat Russian loitering munitions pose to Ukrainian GBADs, which the country desperately needs.

The footage appears to show a Russian Lancet loitering munition, identifiable by its distinctive cruciform wing configuration, targeting the system.
Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... in-video
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raklian
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Re: Military drones - Lessons from the Ukraine War

Post by raklian »

To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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funkervogt
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Re: Military drones - Lessons from the Ukraine War

Post by funkervogt »

Here's a related video about how the Ukraine War has shaped development of battlefield drones and countermeasures.
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Re: Military drones - Lessons from the Ukraine War

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Ukraine Attributes Destruction of Russian Ships to Innovative Use of Drones
November 18, 2023

Introduction:
(Eurasia Review) “Not all of this is the result of the work of our drones,” Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said, but they have caused “quite a lot of damage to enemy ships.”

The Russian fleet has suffered “serious damage” largely caused by Ukrainian drones, according to Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk, who said the tactics have made Ukraine the driver of a new type of naval warfare.

Pletenchuk, speaking on Ukrainian television on November 17, claimed that 15 Russian ships have been destroyed and 12 damaged since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“Not all of this is the result of the work of our drones,” he said, but they have caused “quite a lot of damage to enemy ships.”

Pletenchuk said this has made Ukraine a leader in “a new level of application of unmanned systems,” and is recognized as such.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/18112023 ... -drones/
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