Sino-American Cold War Watch Thread

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Angst Over China, Russia Lessens Chance of Changes in U.S. Nuclear Policy
January 3, 2022

https://www.courthousenews.com/angst-ov ... e-changes/

Introduction:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Joe Biden's arrival in the White House nearly a year ago seemed to herald a historic shift toward less U.S. reliance on nuclear weapons and possibly a shrinking of their numbers. Even an American "no first use" pledge — a promise to never again be the first to use a nuclear weapon — seemed possible.

Then China happened — revelations about its expanding nuclear force and talk of potential war with Taiwan.

And then Russia happened — signs that it might be preparing to invade Ukraine.

Now, major shifts in U.S. nuclear weapons policy seem much less likely, and while Biden may insist on certain adjustments, momentum toward a historic departure from the Trump administration's policy appears to have stalled.

The outlook will be clearer when the Biden administration completes its so-called nuclear posture review — an internal relook at the numbers, kinds and purposes of weapons in the nuclear arsenal, as well as the policies that govern their potential use. The results could be made public as early as January.
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Navy Expedites Waterborne Drones to Close Gap With China
July 29, 2022

Introduction:
(AP via Courthouse News) — Facing a growing threat from China, the Navy envisions drone ships keeping an electronic eye on enemy forces across the vast Pacific Ocean, extending the reach of firepower, and keeping sailors out of harm’s way.

The Navy is speeding development of those robotic ships as an affordable way to keep pace with China’s growing fleet while vowing not to repeat costly shipbuilding blunders from recent years.

The four largest drone ships are being used together this summer during a multination naval exercise in the Pacific Ocean.

Other smaller waterborne drones are already being deployed by the Navy’s 5th Fleet in the waters off the Middle East.

The goal in coming years is to see how these research vessels’ radar and sensors can be combined with artificial intelligence, and integrated with traditional cruisers, destroyers, submarine and aircraft carriers, to create a networked fleet that’s resilient because it’s spread over greater distances and more difficult for enemies to destroy, the Navy says.
Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/navy-ex ... th-china/
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Danger of China’s Strategic Missteps
by Collins Chong Yew Keat
August 11, 2022

Introduction:
(Eurasia Reveiw) Pelosi’s trip is used as the needed pretext for Beijing to initiate the greater strategic and bellicose actions in forcing Taiwan’s hands with starker threats and deterrence. The fierce responses are intended to intimidate and to provide direct threat and coercive tactics to force Taipei to face the harsh reality that Beijing will remain fully in control of its fate, and that Washington can only do so much in periodical terms. The largest military drills with firing of missiles and incursions of more than 100 planes are all geared as preparatory drills and tests for potential blockade and invasion, using this platform as the most useful avenue in testing the capacities to execute the full invasion option. Aggressive methods will be deemed as the new status quo, pivoting away from the sustained but controlled pressuring and grey zone tactics used, as can be seen in the decision for the drills to remain in place.

It remains provocative for Beijing to take this countermeasure disproportionately, in responding to the visit. It will only heighten the risks of missteps and miscalculation, which will then be galvanized by Beijing in pinning the blame on Washington as the first provocateur and justifying its moral and sovereign card in future potential fall-out. The six zones assigned are also meant to be a strong message to Taipei that Beijing’s military might and invasion capacity is not confined to the Taiwan Strait alone.

It signals the start of the intention by Beijing to justify its new norms of greater bellicose actions in cutting off Taiwan from the rest of the world, using means of intimidation, coercions and direct deterrence. By using Pelosi’s trip as the persistent pretense, it now gives Beijing freer hands to mount a more comprehensive and greater options on the table to exert considerable force and other cards in strengthening control and grip over Taipei.

Greater options on the table remain on Xi’s hands after his leadership consolidation, where a full scale island invasion or greater assertive moves in the region in the future will be justified by Beijing, in tracing the roots of the causes to this, among others, and will pin blame on the Americans as the provocateurs.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/11082022 ... eps-oped/
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One thing to remember about the old Cold War was that it involved more than just two countries. Instead, it involved a rather elaborate alliance system on both sides. That being said...

U.S., Pacific Islands Agree to Bolster Ties as China's Influence Grows
by Miya Tanaka
September 30, 2022

Introduction:
(Kyodo News) The United States and Pacific island nations agreed to strengthen their partnership at a summit meeting that ended Thursday, with Washington committing to $810 million in support for the region as it seeks to push back against China's growing clout.

The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden also unveiled its first-ever national strategy dedicated to the Pacific islands that warned China's "pressure and economic coercion" has the potential to undermine peace and security in the region.

"Today, security in the Pacific and for the Pacific islanders remains as critical as ever to us...and the world depends on your security," Biden said during the first-ever U.S.-Pacific Islands Summit in Washington, attended by leaders from countries including Fiji and the Solomon Islands.

China's recent outreach to the Pacific has alarmed the United States and its allies, particularly the signing of a security pact between Beijing and the Solomon Islands in April. The deal has sparked concern that it could lead to China establishing a military presence in the islands to Australia's northeast.

In the Pacific Partnership Strategy, the Biden administration indicated that "heightened geopolitical competition" had led the United States to elevate "broader and deeper engagement" with the region to a foreign policy priority.
Read more here: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/202 ... rows.html
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Blind Spots in Washington’s Indo-Pacific Strategy
by Paul Heer
October 31, 2022

Introduction:
(East Asia Forum via Eurasia Review) The Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, released in February 2022, affirms that the United States will work through ‘a latticework of strong and mutually reinforcing coalitions’ to foster ‘the collective capacity’ of the region to confront 21st century challenges. To that end, Washington has played a leading role in promoting multilateral institutions and shared interests in the region.

These efforts include the Quad — a dialogue process that combines Japan, Australia, India and the United States — and AUKUS — a security agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. In the economic realm, Washington has partnered with multiple countries in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), as a substitute for US membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. The Biden administration also includes the Indo-Pacific in the Build Back Better World (B3W) Partnership, an infrastructure investment program launched by the G7.
Conclusion:
There appears to be little consideration of the possibility that Beijing might share some of its neighbours’ goals or other elements of Washington’s regional agenda. US strategy focusses almost exclusively on mobilising US allies and partners, implicitly against China. Even the list of ‘prospective members’ in the US-Pacific Partnership does not include Beijing.

The United States and China, as the two most powerful countries in the world, must find ways to cooperate on key global issues for the benefit of humanity. This should apply within the Indo-Pacific as well, with both countries playing key roles in regional multilateralism in a shared pursuit of stability, prosperity, mutual benefit and peaceful coexistence.

There is no doubt that cooperation would be complicated, given the inevitable rivalry and strategic mistrust between Beijing and Washington. But the alternative of a region divided between hostile camps would almost certainly be worse. Accordingly, the United States should consider an approach to Indo-Pacific regional security that works with China rather than exclusively against it.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/31102022 ... analysis/
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US Air Force to deploy nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to Australia as tensions with China grow
Source: Australian Broadcasting Corp.

The United States is preparing to deploy up to six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to northern Australia, a provocative move experts say is aimed squarely at China.

Becca Wasser from the Centre for New American Security says putting B-52s in northern Australia is a warning to China, as fears grow Beijing is preparing for an assault on Taiwan.

"Having bombers that could range and potentially attack mainland China could be very important in sending a signal to China that any of its actions over Taiwan could also expand further," she says.

The bombers are part of a much larger upgrade of defence assets across northern Australia, including a major expansion of the Pine Gap intelligence base, which would play a vital role in any conflict with Beijing.
Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-31/ ... /101585380
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Not Your Grandparents’ Cold War: Why America Should Emphasize Economic Rather than Military Strategies in its Rivalry with China

by Joseph Tavares and Kori Schake
November 9, 2022

Introduction:
(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) Scholars and policy makers often analyze the past as a means of understanding present circumstances and devising policy responses. This is, of course, a perfectly rational and prudent way to interpret current events. It is no surprise, then, that the US-China competition of 2022 has drawn comparisons to the Cold War contest between the United States and the Soviet Union. In both cases, two countries in different regions of the world, with incompatible political and economic systems and powerful militaries, compete to increase their power and influence. Yet analogizing the situations too much can actually impede the US effort to devise policies to counteract China’s rise because lessons from the Cold War may be misapplied. This risk is exacerbated by three crucial differences in these great-power contests: Today’s China is more economically powerful than the Soviet Union was; the American and Chinese economies are more intertwined now than the United States’ and Soviet Union’s ever were; and US allies today are wealthier and more militarily capable than during the Cold War.

Because of these differences, the United States should approach its rivalry with China in a way that emphasizes economics and focuses less on the types of ideological and military struggles that characterized the Cold War.

Not your grandparents’ Cold War


Starting with the differences between today’s US-China competition and the Cold War prevents one from over-emphasizing similarities.
Read more here: https://thebulletin.org/premium/2022-1 ... t-heading
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China building cyberweapons to hijack enemy satellites, says US leak
Source: Ars Technica

MEHUL SRIVASTAVA, FELICIA SCHWARTZ, AND DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO, FT - 4/21/2023, 6:28 AM
China is building sophisticated cyber weapons to “seize control” of enemy satellites, rendering them useless for data signals or surveillance during wartime, according to a leaked US intelligence report.

The US assesses that China’s push to develop capabilities to “deny, exploit or hijack” enemy satellites is a core part of its goal to control information, which Beijing considers to be a key “war-fighting domain.”

The CIA-marked document, which was issued this year and has been reviewed by the Financial Times, was one of dozens allegedly shared by a 21-year-old US Air Guardsman in the most significant American intelligence disclosures in more than a decade.

A cyber capability of this nature would far exceed anything Russia has deployed in Ukraine, where electronic warfare teams have taken a brute-force approach with little effect.
Read more: https://arstechnica.com/information-tec ... s-us-leak/
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Seagate Ffined $300 Million for Shipping 7.4 Million Hard Drives to Huawei
by Jess Weatherbed
April 21 , 2023

Introduction:
(The Verge) Computing storage manufacturer Seagate has agreed to pay a $300 million penalty imposed by the US Department of Commerce (DOC) for shipping over $1.1 billion worth of hard disk drives to Huawei, violating export control restrictions. An investigation by Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) determined that Seagate shipped 7.4 million hard drives to Huawei between August 2020 and September 2021 without obtaining an export license, despite a rule introduced in August 2020 that restricts sales to the Chinese company.

The $300 million penalty is the largest fine ever imposed by the BIS that isn’t tied to a criminal case. The BIS says it’s more than double Seagate’s profits in selling the hard drives.

Huawei was first placed on the Entity List, a US trade blacklist, in May 2019 amid concerns the company’s communications technology could help the Chinese government spy on American networks. These restraints were expanded in August 2020 when BIS imposed a license requirement on certain foreign-produced items made with US technology being sold to Huawei. Seagate claimed its hard drives were not subject to the restrictions (according to Reuters), and continued to do business with Huawei, becoming the company’s sole provider of HDDs.

“Even after Huawei was placed on the Entity List for conduct inimical to our national security, and its competitors had stopped selling to them due to our foreign direct product rule, Seagate continued sending hard disk drives to Huawei,” said Matthew Axelrod, Assistant Secretary for Export Enforcement.

Read more here: https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/21/236 ... trictions
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