China's population collapse

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

Ok, I am of a completely different school of thought than those that commented in the above video. My argument is that they focus on one aspect of the situation at the exclusion of many other factors that should be looked upon. Sure, care for the elderly is an important consideration. This includes health care and care for those that can no long care for themselves. Yet, many elder persons are perfectly able to take of themselves and are even able to still contribute to the economy. To get a full picture, one should visit an assisted living facility, then visit an active senior organization or clubhouse. The active seniors' organization will show you how seniors can take of themselves, health permitting. This is especially true in a modernized economy where mechanization in agriculture and industry has reduced the need for hard physical labor. In a country where the shift in age is occurring, there may be some pressure to delay the age of retirement. Part time employment by healthy elderly individuals may also become more prevalent.

Benefits of a shrinking population are overlooked.

1. There is no or a reduced need to build new housing and infrastructure.

2. An ability exists to allow the rest of agricultural land, especially that which is least productive.

3. Such a situation allows a shift in manufacturing to the most productive assets. That is complicated by the need for products across the board. More essential products will be in demand, regardless of productivity gains or losses in the fabrication of such products. Here, the market can actually be of some use. There will be a tendency for more productive assets to be kept operating, while less productive assets that (in theory) produce at higher costs can be idled. Of course, the market will only go so far in allowing abandonment of less productive resources. I suppose that might also be true of the utilization of agricultural land as well.

4. As has been frequently pointed out, a shortage of labor can be offset by further mechanization and reliance on robots. Again, a rising cost of labor due to a shortage of workers will make such a shift more desirable.

5. Managing a country that is declining in population should also result in a less aggressive military posture. There would be a pressure to shift from expansion to more defensive efforts. Of course, leaders may be slow to respond to that pressure.

So, a well-managed economy should be able to handle the challenges of an aging population with relative ease. It is only the most ardent of capitalist oriented thinkers who will insist that the economy must either grow or experience disaster. A managed economy can by its nature manage the shifts involved, even as it uses market mechanisms to assist in dealing with those shifts.

[weatheriscool]

I agree with Caltrek. I'd have less children and invest in them with education, more focus on infrastructure, science and tech...I'd also clean up the environment and make the standards of living higher for all. Exactly the opposite of what the loserterians here in America want to do.

[raklian]

Robots and artificial intelligence (or combination of both) will more than make up the decline in population from the peak in terms of productivity. After that point sometime in the future, artificial intelligence will closely approximate that of humans to the extent an observer will not see a meaningful difference. The human population decline will not be as catastrophic as we are fearing.

[funkervogt]

Benefits of a shrinking population are overlooked.

1. There is no or a reduced need to build new housing and infrastructure.

Less people means there is more physical space per person. In very crowded countries like China, this is a real relief.

I have a friend from India, and says that the overcrowding and associated noise is something none of them really get used to. He and other Indians I've spoken with have also universally said that the overcrowding leads to a cheapening of the value of human life amongst everyone.

There's also a sentiment among Indians and Chinese that, no matter how rich and successful you are, your life can only get so good because you have to periodically leave your nice home and endure the overcrowded, polluted, loud outside world in those countries.

In the long run, a smaller population in both countries would leave their human citizens better off.

[Xyls]

5. Managing a country that is declining in population should also result in a less aggressive military posture. There would be a pressure to shift from expansion to more defensive efforts. Of course, leaders may be slow to respond to that pressure.

Disagree with this thesis. Russia being a case and point why. Russia has been in population decline mode for the last decade almost and it has certainly not toned down it's military aggressiveness. If anything it has probably only increased it. In fact, I would argue that Putin's attempt to expand his population base by force was one of the main drivers of the current war in Ukraine. Why else are the Russian's so determined to steal Ukrainian children?

I would also argue that this may encourage dictatorships to act sooner against enemies if they feel demographics will weaken their position in the future. It might be that population decline makes wars MORE likely, not less.

[caltrek]

5. Managing a country that is declining in population should also result in a less aggressive military posture. There would be a pressure to shift from expansion to more defensive efforts. Of course, leaders may be slow to respond to that pressure.

Disagree with this thesis. Russia being a case and point why. Russia has been in population decline mode for the last decade almost and it has certainly not toned down it's military aggressiveness. If anything it has probably only increased it. In fact, I would argue that Putin's attempt to expand his population base by force was one of the main drivers of the current war in Ukraine. Why else are the Russian's so determined to steal Ukrainian children?

I would also argue that this may encourage dictatorships to act sooner against enemies if they feel demographics will weaken their position in the future. It might be that population decline makes wars MORE likely, not less.

Well, this may be the weakest part of my response. I still think that the should also part of my response needs to be emphasized. As Xyls points out, the reality of the situation may be quite different. Perhaps I should have been more careful about separating idealistic sentiments from hard-nosed prediction.

Another aspect is that expansionist-oriented leaders may be so oriented regardless of internal demographics. That is to say also regardless of whether or not such policies actually make any sense. International cooperation might yield better outcomes as opposed to aggressive expansionist policies. Expansionist policies may come at a cost, especially when they flare up into a wartime situation, as we see in the Ukraine.

Hopefully, China is largely bluffing in its Taiwan policy. Unfortunately, Taiwan and the West cannot count on their rhetoric being mere bluff.

[erowind]

.

[funkervogt]

Here's an article from almost exactly ten years ago about China's impending demographic decline, and the impact on its economy. Back then, the issue was not as well-known, and it was less credible given China's astonishing and ongoing rise across many domains (wealth, technology, military, science). Reading this now, I'm impressed by how accurate Clint Laurent was.

(I've provided the hyperlink to the article, but it no longer works.)

http://openmarkets.cmegroup.com/6310/cl ... -challenge

CLINT LAURENT EXPLAINS CHINA’S DEMOGRAPHICS CHALLENGE
By OpenMarkets Jul 10, 2013

China has again been thrust into the spotlight of global markets as fresh signs of economic weakness send commodity markets into a tailspin. This latest pullback comes amid a growing consensus that after three decades of double-digit growth, the policies that created the world’s second largest economy have run their course.

Another, often overlooked, reason why China will need to steer a new course is its rapidly changing demographics: the workforce that powered the “world’s factory workshop” is rapidly shrinking and aging. At the same time, households are growing wealthier as a growing urban consumer class emerges.

These demographic realties promise to drive a fundamental shift in the makeup of China’s economy. To gain some perspective on what China’s economy might look like in the future, we sat down with Dr. Clint Laurent, founder and Managing Director of consultancy Global Demographics and author of “Tomorrow’s World: A Look at the Demographic and Socio-economic Structure of the World in 2032”

We hear increasingly about China’s aging workforce. But with a population of 1.3 billion plus people is this not a red herring?

China’s population will reach a peak in 2018 before beginning an accelerated decline. But China’s labor force is already shrinking – and this is a fact, not a forecast.

The main reason is the migrating rural population that historically provided new factory labor has hollowed-out in the 15-39 age group. There is basically nobody left to migrate and this is massively under-reported. China also has virtually no spare capacity given 71 percent of woman and 81 percent of men of working age are already employed.

We expect China’s labor force to contract from 761 million in 2012 to 626 million in 2032. After adding six million workers every year to its labor force in the two decades up to 2010, China will soon see a decline at an average rate of 6.7 million workers per year.

Are we talking about a phenomenon that is peculiar to China – how does this compare to elsewhere in the world?

I don’t think any societies in human history have experienced such a rapid decline in the number of workers as China inevitably will.

China’s situation contrasts sharply with other key regions. Young population regions such as developing Asia, India, North Africa, the Middle East and South America will all see double-digit labor force increases. The older regions of the world like Western Europe are expected to be relatively stable with the exception of North America. It will see a 13 percent increase over the next 20 years due to migration and having a relatively younger population.

Will it not be possible to manage this labor force shrinkage by reversing China’s longstanding one-child policy?

There is a big misconception about the extent to which China’s one-child policy is responsible for this situation. The reality of this policy is that it only applies to the minority of the population – ethnic Han Chinese born in an urban area. This works out at about 38 percent of the childbearing population. While this policy has had an impact, it is now diminishing. If it were relaxed we would not expect to see a surge in births.

The bigger constraint is affordability. The government knows it can only gradually relax the one-child policy because it will cost so much. Often where the rural population can have more than one child, if they have moved to urban areas the parents will have to pay for the child’s education and health care. This effectively acts as a birth constrain. And you have to remember it takes 15 years from a policy change to start getting new additions to the labor force.

What does this all mean for China’s growth rate?

China’s growth is going to slow. Expectations that it can continue at 7 or 8 percent are not realistic given that the labor force is now shrinking and will continue to shrink. There is improvement in productivity, but worker numbers have slowed down. Net productivity is less, and GDP slows. Our forecasts are for China to average a growth rate of 5.1 percent for the next ten years. [Note: This was accurate.]

But it is not all bad news. What people forget is that China’s consumption is still only 35 percent of GDP. It is double that in the U.S., and of the 75 countries we cover, the average is 55 percent. We expect rebalancing of China’s economy will happen, driven by demographics. In the next ten years we expect consumption to reach 39 percent of GDP, and household incomes to double. [Note: Consumption is indeed now 39% of China's GDP, and at least in urban areas, household incomes almost doubled from 27,000 to 49,000 Yuan.]

Another kicker to consumption is the fast growth of the group between 40-64 years. These silver haired consumers will have spending power. We expect the number of empty nester households in China to grow from 53 percent to 68 percent by 2032.

What does this rebalancing of growth mean for demand coming out of China?

I expect the demand for commodities will drop. The big difference is you will go to China to sell things rather than to buy.

Given the huge growth in the number of people in the 40-64 age group, this will be an important demand segment. This will be good for self-actualization goods – by this I mean travel, skin care, wellness, clothing and dining out. I also expect greater demand for higher quality goods. This is something domestic Chinese manufacturers will have to adapt to.

If China is set to lose some of its manufacturing capacity – who is best placed to benefit?

India is often touted as a beneficiary as it is a much younger population, where its millions of well- educated young people give it a so-called demographic dividend. But to me this is a bit of a fallacy. The problem with India is only 80 percent of 6-12 year olds go to primary school. This means each year India does not educate five million children. I think this is enough to cause social trouble, and it also puts a limit on the country’s potential. In twenty years’ time robotics will replace most low-end jobs.

I expect to see other countries in the region such as Indonesia and Thailand regaining competiveness in manufacturing. Eastern Europe is also looking competitive as it has proximity to markets, educated labor and price competitiveness.


ALSO CONSIDER THIS: https://www.forbes.com/sites/china/2011 ... f137c975d8

In the Nov/Dec 2010 issue of Foreign Affairs magazine, there is a fantastic article entitled “The Demographic Future” by Nicholas Eberstadt, where he introduces what the world of 2030 will look like from a demographic standpoint. As he explains:

“It is already possible to draw a reasonably reliable profile of the world’s population in 2030. This is, of course, because the overwhelming majority of those who will inhabit the world 20 years from now are already alive. As a result, one can make some fairly confident estimates of important demographic trends, including manpower availability, the growth in the number of senior citizens, and the resulting support burden on workers.”

Mr. Eberstadt spends a portion of his essay on China’s future situation, and he paints an outlook most people familiar with China’s demographic trends have known for some time: a doubling of the number of senior citizens, a shrinking of the younger working class, and rudimentary social welfare and pension systems incapable of coping with the massive imbalance.

This coming reality is shared by the U.S. and all developed nations, except China’s is pushed to the extremes because of its much larger population, much poorer per capita income, much lower education levels and a more ill-equipped pension system.

Yet, for all these colossal national challenges, Eberstadt’s essay adds one more demographic trend unique to China that will have significant social and cultural implications:

“…China will face a growing number of young men who will never marry due to the country’s one-child policy, which has resulted in a reported birth ratio of almost 120 boys for every 100 girls…By 2030, projections suggest that more than 25% of Chinese men in their late 30s will never have married."

[funkervogt]

That last article inspired me to read more about Clint Laurent. Here are notes I made from an interview he did in 2021 about demographics and the global economy:



In rich countries, the graying of the population will mean a lower ratio of workers to old people, forcing people to work until later in life. The retirement age will increase.

Eastern Europe and Russia have highly educated but underutilized workforces. If they played their cards right, they could experience sharp economic growth.

In spite of its shrinking overall population, China could continue to effectively increase the output of its working-age population by moving more people from the countryside into the cities, where they can get more productive jobs. The reserve population of rural people won't run out until 2030, so China should have healthy GDP growth until then.

There is no way the Chinese government can reverse the country's population decline.

Poor public education is a major economic handicap in India and most other Third World countries, though it's improving.



Unlike China, India has failed to move most of its population from sustenance farms to higher-productivity city jobs.

As the young population expands, the government must spend more money on schools to keep up. Because India spends so much money increasing the quantity of schools, it lacks the money to sufficiently improve the quality of its schools. A slower population growth rate would be a blessing in this regard.

India won't start getting its act together for at least another ten years.

The population of sub-Saharan Africa will double in less than 25 years. All the problems that India has are also present, but worse.

A crisis will unfold over the next 25 years:
-Thanks to graying populations, rich countries will consume less and GDP growth will drop to ~1%.
-Thanks to improvements in technology, fewer human workers will be needed to make the goods and services to satisfy that consumption level.
-As a result, the huge numbers of uneducated, working-age people that will be produced in poor countries during the period won't be able to find jobs. There could be 400 million jobless people in Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and the poorest South American countries.
-They will illegally immigrate to the U.S. and E.U. The situation could get very bad after 2030.

A side effect of low, stable consumption levels will be stable commodity prices.

[wjfox]

Why it's getting easier to be a single mum in China

15 hours ago

Until last year it was not really possible for most unmarried women to become mothers in China - practically speaking. But a social change is under way and it is driving shifts in policy too.

In her flat on the outskirts of Shanghai, Zhang Meili rocks her baby back and forth. As he gurgles away happily, she tells him that she's going to head out soon to earn money for him.

[...]

One factor driving change for policymakers has been the country's ageing population.

After decades of the one-child policy, the government would now like young couples to have more babies, but many are not answering the call, for financial reasons. They think they don't have sufficient funds to raise multiple children.

Under these circumstances, if single women want to have children, those in positions of authority have decided they should be encouraged to.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-66064589

[wjfox]

China population decline accelerates as birthrate hits record low

Wed 17 Jan 2024 05.24 GMT

China’s population decline has accelerated, with a second year of record-low birthrates.

The total number of people in China dropped by 2.75 million – or 0.2% – to 1.409 billion in 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday. The drop surpassed that recorded in 2022, of about 850,000 – the first time the recorded population had declined since the mass deaths of the Mao-era famines.

In 2023, total deaths rose 6.6% to 11.1 million, with the death rate reaching the highest level since 1974 during the cultural revolution. At the same time, new births fell 5.7% to 9.02 million. The birthrate was the lowest ever recorded at 6.39 births per 1,000 people, down from a rate of 6.77 births in 2022.

China has for years been battling trends that have led to an ageing population, which were driven by past policies of population control –including the one-child policy – and a growing reluctance among young adults to have children. In 2023 it was overtaken by India as the world’s most populous nation, according to UN estimates.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... record-low

[wjfox]

China raises retirement age for first time since 1950s

2 hours ago

China will "gradually raise" its retirement age for the first time since the 1950s, as the country confronts an ageing population and a dwindling pension budget.

The top legislative body on Friday approved proposals to raise the statutory retirement age from 50 to 55 for women in blue-collar jobs, and from 55 to 58 for females in white-collar jobs.

Men will see an increase from 60 to 63.

China's current retirement ages are among the lowest in the world.

According to the plan passed on Friday, the change will set in from 1 January 2025, with the respective retirement ages raised every few months over the next 15 years, said Chinese state media.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62421le4j6o

[weatheriscool]

[Time_Traveller]

China’s population set to shrink by 51 mln in next decade

Published: 18 November ,2024: 12:55 PM GST

China’s population is expected to shrink by 51 million — more than the size of California — over the next decade as policymakers struggle to reverse the country’s falling birth rate, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

By 2035, the population is expected to drop to 1.36 billion, levels not seen since 2012, down from a peak of 1.41 billion in 2021, BI senior industry analyst Ada Li estimates.

There could be a temporary spike in births in 2024 as the Year of the Dragon is considered an auspicious time to have children. But past single-year surges in birth rates have been short-lived, and this year may be no exception, especially with marriage rates at an all-time low, Li said.

China faces a looming population crisis, with the United Nations projecting it could shrink to half its current size by 2100. Decades of restrictive family formation policies, rising living costs and changing social norms have led to fewer women having children. A shrinking workforce and growing elderly population are increasing pressure on the economy, pension systems and healthcare infrastructure.

“Policymakers are likely to step up the pace of reform as they take aim at the barriers standing between reproductive age couples, and their desire to build families,” Li said in a report Monday. This could include improving reproductive and pediatric health-care services, and making child care more affordable.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/worl ... xt-decade-

[weatheriscool]

This is why womb transplants into willing men need to happen. Woman either don't want a family over an career anymore or are literally only having one child at the end of their child bearing years. This is something most people don't want to hear about, but it is the truth. I wish people would work together(man and woman) and create a fair society that could do both but so far that isn't happening.

Tens of millions of men aint having children and a lot of them would probably go on to do so if allowed and weren't shamed throughout europe, the us, canada, china, japan, south korea, etc.

We have a few options or courses to move forward.
1. Go back to tradition
2. to force the middle ground where people are forced to work together( get married in their 20's, have kids,etc) but both get to work.
3. Give men the ability to have children with womb transplants or robotic wombs...Don't do anything socially otherwise

[Vakanai]

This is why womb transplants into willing men need to happen. Woman either don't want a family over an career anymore or are literally only having one child at the end of their child bearing years. This is something most people don't want to hear about, but it is the truth. I wish people would work together(man and woman) and create a fair society that could do both but so far that isn't happening.

Tens of millions of men aint having children and a lot of them would probably go on to do so if allowed and weren't shamed throughout europe, the us, canada, china, japan, south korea, etc.

We have a few options or courses to move forward.
1. Go back to tradition
2. to force the middle ground where people are forced to work together( get married in their 20's, have kids,etc) but both get to work.
3. Give men the ability to have children with womb transplants or robotic wombs...Don't do anything socially otherwise

That's not a solution. The amount of "men" who want or would use that are too few to have an effect on total population numbers. Most men do not and will not want this. This is mostly an interest for trans women, and sadly the political world right now is pretty terrible on trans rights.
I get you want this for yourself, but that doesn't make it a priority for most of humanity right now. Most interest in womb technology is in removing wombs from the human body entirely - artificial wombs. Which is safer all around for people.

[firestar464]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection

[wjfox]

China's birth rate hits record low as population continues to shrink

19 January 2026, 07:12 GMT

China's birth rates sunk to a record low in 2025, despite the government rolling out a spate of incentives to boost it, as the country's population fell for the fourth straight year.

Government data on Monday showed that the country's birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 people – a record low since the Communist Party took power in 1949 – while its death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest since 1968.

Its population fell 3.39 million to reach 1.4 billion by the end of 2025, marking a quicker decline than the previous year.

Faced with an ageing population and sluggish economy, Beijing has been trying hard to encourage more young people to marry and have children.

In 2016, it scrapped its longstanding one-child policy and replaced it with a two-child limit. When that did not lead to a sustained upsurge in births, authorities announced that they would allow up to three children per couple in 2021.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c79r7v7qr53o