Technological Unemployment News & Discussions

Vakanai
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Re: Technological Unemployment News & Discussions

Post by Vakanai »

Ozzie guy wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:28 pm I might find my savings I am building for post AGI will actually be spent during the unemployment crisis. As long as I have money saved I will be happy to lose my job to AI as it is part of the natural economic development we will have to go through.

A question on my mind is akin to the digital revolution of the economy has the AI/robotics revolution of the economy started?

Part of me does not want to say an AI revolution has begun because with real AGI coming it seems almost silly to call a non AGI, AI revolution significant.
It's not silly at all. Something that will bring millions if not billions to a financial crisis point, change every or nearly every industry, create uprisings and protests in untold numbers, change the political landscape of the world, and who knows what all else is not silly and is extremely revolutionary, AGI or not.
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Yuli Ban
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Re: Technological Unemployment News & Discussions

Post by Yuli Ban »

Agreed to both

And furthermore I've been stressing out about this fact for the better part of a decade now. Longtimers on FutureTimeline know this. I've been predicting for a long time that we're currently listening to the ticking of a social, political, and economic timebomb.

My epiphany on synthetic media back in 2017 partially stemmed from me thinking about this and the realization of just how close we are to the age of imaginative machines factors in heavily to my HORROR. In fact when it comes to AI-generated media it's even worse precisely because of this widespread perception that AI can't possibly be creative or ever replace creative jobs.

This matters because of the perception that automation will first attack low-skilled blue-collar jobs, then maybe in a few decades start affecting white collar jobs, and then a few decades after that (if ever) it might augmented and automate SOME creative jobs.

The cold reality is that it's going to happen in reverse and on vastly more truncated time scales. And we just aren't ready at all. We're telling warehouse workers, fast food workers, and miners "Robots are coming for your jobs, peasants, so you'd better consider going to college or trade school" when it's actually coming for the starving artists, writers, models, journalists, newscasters, and office monkeys first. These are some of the LEAST unionized jobs out there and thus the most vulnerable to automation. But they're also jobs that a lot of wider popular society casts off as "not being real jobs" anyway. It's going to be bloody.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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Ozzie guy
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Re: Technological Unemployment News & Discussions

Post by Ozzie guy »

Yuli Ban wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:54 am Agreed to both

And furthermore I've been stressing out about this fact for the better part of a decade now. Longtimers on FutureTimeline know this. I've been predicting for a long time that we're currently listening to the ticking of a social, political, and economic timebomb.

My epiphany on synthetic media back in 2017 partially stemmed from me thinking about this and the realization of just how close we are to the age of imaginative machines factors in heavily to my HORROR. In fact when it comes to AI-generated media it's even worse precisely because of this widespread perception that AI can't possibly be creative or ever replace creative jobs.

This matters because of the perception that automation will first attack low-skilled blue-collar jobs, then maybe in a few decades start affecting white collar jobs, and then a few decades after that (if ever) it might augmented and automate SOME creative jobs.

The cold reality is that it's going to happen in reverse and on vastly more truncated time scales. And we just aren't ready at all. We're telling warehouse workers, fast food workers, and miners "Robots are coming for your jobs, peasants, so you'd better consider going to college or trade school" when it's actually coming for the starving artists, writers, models, journalists, newscasters, and office monkeys first. These are some of the LEAST unionized jobs out there and thus the most vulnerable to automation. But they're also jobs that a lot of wider popular society casts off as "not being real jobs" anyway. It's going to be bloody.
When do you expect all of this to start taking place?
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Yuli Ban
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Re: Technological Unemployment News & Discussions

Post by Yuli Ban »

It's too late, it's already starting.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
Nanotechandmorefuture
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Re: Technological Unemployment News & Discussions

Post by Nanotechandmorefuture »

Yuli Ban wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:26 am It's too late, it's already starting.
Definitely a good call to have a STEM focus while I see what is going down with the arts in these dangerous times. I knew when I became educated on what AI was all about a few years ago that it would come to this with DALL-E basically making amazing art in a few seconds no concept artist could do.
I KNEW IT! There is no way in hell those photos of DALL-E did not make some people freak out in the arts world.
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caltrek
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Re: Technological Unemployment News & Discussions

Post by caltrek »

^^^Not everyone agrees on that assessment. Consider:

AI and Labor
by Dwayne Monroe
June 24, 2022

Extract:
(The Nation) The goal of most AI (which began as a pure research aspiration announced at a Dartmouth conference in 1956 but is now dominated by the directives of Silicon Valley) is to replace human effort and skill with thinking machines. So, every time you hear about self-driving trucks or cars, instead of marveling at the technical feat, you should detect the outlines of an anti-labor program.

The futuristic promises about thinking machines don’t hold up. This is hype, yes—but also a propaganda campaign waged by the tech industry to convince us that they’ve created, or are very close to creating, systems that can be doctors, chefs, and even life companions.

A simple Google search for the phrase “AI will…” returns millions of results, usually accompanied by images of ominous sci-fi-style robots, suggesting that AI will soon replace human beings in a dizzying array of areas. What’s missing is any examination of how these systems might actually work and what their limitations are. Once you part the curtain and see the wizard pulling levers, straining to keep the illusion going, you’re left wondering: Why are we being told this?

Consider the case of radiologists. In 2016, the computer scientist Geoffrey Hinton, confident that automated analysis had surpassed human insight, declared that “we should stop training radiologists now.” Extensive research has shown his statement to have been wildly premature. And while it’s tempting to see it as a temporarily embarrassing bit of overreach, I think we need to ask questions about the political economy underpinning such declarations.
...
The promotion of the idea of automated radiology, regardless of existing capabilities, is attractive to the ownership class because it holds the promise of weakening labor’s power and increasing—via workforce cost reduction and greater scalability—profitability. Who wants robot taxis more than the owner of a taxi company?
Read more here: https://www.thenation.com/article/soci ... sentient/
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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funkervogt
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Re: Technological Unemployment News & Discussions

Post by funkervogt »

A human graphic designer would take more than 5.25 hours to recreate those images at a cost of ~$150 based on an average hourly wage of ~$29.1 DALLE-2 hasn't announced its commercial pricing yet but, given 22 seconds of compute on an A100, we estimate that the inference cost for a single image could be ~$0.01––more than 99.99% lower than human labor cost.
https://cperry248.substack.com/p/the-robots-have-landed
Nanotechandmorefuture
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Re: Technological Unemployment News & Discussions

Post by Nanotechandmorefuture »

funkervogt wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 1:27 pm
A human graphic designer would take more than 5.25 hours to recreate those images at a cost of ~$150 based on an average hourly wage of ~$29.1 DALLE-2 hasn't announced its commercial pricing yet but, given 22 seconds of compute on an A100, we estimate that the inference cost for a single image could be ~$0.01––more than 99.99% lower than human labor cost.
https://cperry248.substack.com/p/the-robots-have-landed
Worst part about it for that field is that even the non commercial AI is getting better. There's a recent craiyon post that you can see the boosts in AI accuracy through the pictures. No way in hell the film & arts isn't having people freak out over this.
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R8Z
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Re: Technological Unemployment News & Discussions

Post by R8Z »

I have a feeling that the job of a concept artist is going to be the most shifted around first; a person on this job gathers concepts and builds on early ideas, iterating over them... it's a perfect fit to work along something like DALLE-2 or some other more advanced AI, just playing around with prompt phrases.

This is almost ironic as one of the major supposed roadblocks for AI art creation or creation in general was the lack of "human creativity". It seems this was the easiest step so far. :lol:
And, as always, bye bye.
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Ozzie guy
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Re: Technological Unemployment News & Discussions

Post by Ozzie guy »

Holy Crap!!!

I just went to the shoe shop "The Athletes foot" instead of trying on 5+ shoes with an employee and getting frustrated I used an in store Artificial intelligence that analyzed my feet and walking patterns. The AI picked out a shoe and it was a perfect fit.

I am aware the shoe shop has claimed to have this technology for like a decade but from memory it started as a bullsh$#t marketing gimmick that didn't work, now the sci fi tech they lied about having actually exists.
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