How are longevity predictions tracking?
How are longevity predictions tracking?
Hi all. First time posting here, long time lurker (very long – 6+ years).
I have a few interests when it comes to speculating on the future, but none are as strong as science in the ageing field, and the possibilities of life extension and rejuvenation.
No hypothetical future technology interests me more than this. It would be a massively consequential thing not just for me personally, but for everyone who lived to see it. I mostly want to discuss the existing predictions on the main Future Timeline. I want to look at how accurate these predictions might be, specifically, not the multi-layered consequences of a society where ageing is cured (though that's also an interesting topic).
Relevant timeline excerpts below.
2065 - Longevity treatments able to halt aging
By the year 2065, “Various combinations of treatments are now available that can essentially halt the aging process, at a cost low enough for the average person. This is changing society and culture in profound ways.”
The same prediction says that by the 2040s, various medical technologies will “allow some celebrities and other high-income individuals to remain in a relatively young and biologically healthy state.”
And another prediction:
2160 - The world's first bicentenarians
“Certain people who were born in the 1960s are still alive and well in today's world.”
In the present day (2022), these people would already be between 52 and 62 years old.
…………
So, how are we tracking? My impression is that these past 3 or so years have seen some very promising developments.
As a secondary question – who are these hypothetical bicentenarians mentioned? Both of my parents were born in the 60s, but I’m guessing they’ll miss out unless they live to well over 90 naturally. For the first 200-year-olds, are we looking at someone like Jeff Bezos (ugh…) – born in 1964, age 75 - 85 during the 2040s, and with enough money to afford expensive treatments the moment they're available?
I will admit I personally find it a little hard to believe that people in their 60s now could live centuries. A lot of predictions I see by field experts just seem… a little wild.
I have seen some people express concern that the rich will somehow hoard longevity tech and it will never reach the rest of us. I wouldn’t say that’s the least bit logical, although it makes a neat concept for a dystopian novel or TV show. I do agree with the timeline’s broad prediction though – the rich will get it before the rest of us.
I think the key is not to go too hard on the copium with these things. I want to be realistic. Will my parents (in their 50s) see longevity treatments? Will I (Born in the 90s) see it? Will a baby born in 2022 see it?
How well are we tracking for the prediction of, “rich people can do this in 20-something years, normal people can in a little over 40”?
Too optimistic? Not optimistic enough? Right on track?
I’d definitely like to hear from wjfox, but anyone with relevant knowledge feel free to weigh in.
I have a few interests when it comes to speculating on the future, but none are as strong as science in the ageing field, and the possibilities of life extension and rejuvenation.
No hypothetical future technology interests me more than this. It would be a massively consequential thing not just for me personally, but for everyone who lived to see it. I mostly want to discuss the existing predictions on the main Future Timeline. I want to look at how accurate these predictions might be, specifically, not the multi-layered consequences of a society where ageing is cured (though that's also an interesting topic).
Relevant timeline excerpts below.
2065 - Longevity treatments able to halt aging
By the year 2065, “Various combinations of treatments are now available that can essentially halt the aging process, at a cost low enough for the average person. This is changing society and culture in profound ways.”
The same prediction says that by the 2040s, various medical technologies will “allow some celebrities and other high-income individuals to remain in a relatively young and biologically healthy state.”
And another prediction:
2160 - The world's first bicentenarians
“Certain people who were born in the 1960s are still alive and well in today's world.”
In the present day (2022), these people would already be between 52 and 62 years old.
…………
So, how are we tracking? My impression is that these past 3 or so years have seen some very promising developments.
As a secondary question – who are these hypothetical bicentenarians mentioned? Both of my parents were born in the 60s, but I’m guessing they’ll miss out unless they live to well over 90 naturally. For the first 200-year-olds, are we looking at someone like Jeff Bezos (ugh…) – born in 1964, age 75 - 85 during the 2040s, and with enough money to afford expensive treatments the moment they're available?
I will admit I personally find it a little hard to believe that people in their 60s now could live centuries. A lot of predictions I see by field experts just seem… a little wild.
I have seen some people express concern that the rich will somehow hoard longevity tech and it will never reach the rest of us. I wouldn’t say that’s the least bit logical, although it makes a neat concept for a dystopian novel or TV show. I do agree with the timeline’s broad prediction though – the rich will get it before the rest of us.
I think the key is not to go too hard on the copium with these things. I want to be realistic. Will my parents (in their 50s) see longevity treatments? Will I (Born in the 90s) see it? Will a baby born in 2022 see it?
How well are we tracking for the prediction of, “rich people can do this in 20-something years, normal people can in a little over 40”?
Too optimistic? Not optimistic enough? Right on track?
I’d definitely like to hear from wjfox, but anyone with relevant knowledge feel free to weigh in.
I'm just a bird who escapes his cage to post here sometimes.
Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?
I think that someone born in 2022 is 99% guaranteed to see longevity treatments unless they die as children for some awful reason.
People born in the 1990s, have probably about 70% chance to see longevity treatments.
People born the 1960s, have possibly about 35% chance to see serious longevity treatments.
The chance is sharply dropping going further than the 1960s.
I think we are on-track for some serious longevity treatments in the 2040s or 2050s. I myself feel confident that I can make it that far and probably later see the 22nd century. My advice is to not get fat, do not smoke and do not drink too much alcohol. I don't see fat people, heavy smokers or heavy drinkers living to their 80s (with some exceptions). Eat vegetables. Do not sit all day.
People born in the 1990s, have probably about 70% chance to see longevity treatments.
People born the 1960s, have possibly about 35% chance to see serious longevity treatments.
The chance is sharply dropping going further than the 1960s.
I think we are on-track for some serious longevity treatments in the 2040s or 2050s. I myself feel confident that I can make it that far and probably later see the 22nd century. My advice is to not get fat, do not smoke and do not drink too much alcohol. I don't see fat people, heavy smokers or heavy drinkers living to their 80s (with some exceptions). Eat vegetables. Do not sit all day.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?
Thanks for your input.
Sounds like my chances look pretty good, then. I do need to sit a lot less...
For me, it would be amazing to:
1 - Live all the way to 100.
2 - Shortly after that, live to see January 1st, 2100 - for better or worse, I'd have been alive for all of the 21st century.
3 - Remain useful and productive well into old age - whatever that ends up meaning during the late 21st century.
I try to remain cautious with my optimism, but this specific area looks good.
Sounds like my chances look pretty good, then. I do need to sit a lot less...
For me, it would be amazing to:
1 - Live all the way to 100.
2 - Shortly after that, live to see January 1st, 2100 - for better or worse, I'd have been alive for all of the 21st century.
3 - Remain useful and productive well into old age - whatever that ends up meaning during the late 21st century.
I try to remain cautious with my optimism, but this specific area looks good.
I'm just a bird who escapes his cage to post here sometimes.
- BaobabScion
- Posts: 102
- Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:41 pm
Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?
It seems like you've developed a light-hearted yet balanced outlook on your health and life. Congratulations because that tends to be the hardest part for most people.Matt wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 1:52 pm Thanks for your input.
Sounds like my chances look pretty good, then. I do need to sit a lot less...
For me, it would be amazing to:
1 - Live all the way to 100.
2 - Shortly after that, live to see January 1st, 2100 - for better or worse, I'd have been alive for all of the 21st century.
3 - Remain useful and productive well into old age - whatever that ends up meaning during the late 21st century.
I try to remain cautious with my optimism, but this specific area looks good.
I could give supplementational advice if you're interested, but for now, just try your best to adhere to the following:
- Eat lots of vegetables. Strive for a variety of colors but prioritize dark green.
- Limit red meat intake. Honestly, you should try to limit all meat intake, but red meat is the worst offender when it comes to cardiovascular degeneration, inflammation and carcinogenic capacity.
- Walk often, sit rarely.
- Weight-train almost as often as you walk, and continue weight-training for the entirety of your life. When done intelligently, of course, this will help build the bodily constitution necessary for you to continue to provide and care for yourself well into old age.
- Clean your teeth constantly. Not only does a dirty mouth lead to dirty breath, but it also has a negative effect on the cardiorespiratory system and can spiral into debilitating pain if allowed to worsen.
- Use sunscreen, even if you're of a darker complexion. This will help to minimize cellular damage from UV-rays, which in turn will help to reduce wrinklage.
- Build mental fortitude. A will to live is necessary to keep living. It sounds like a platitude, but it's one of the deepest truths out there. A strong
mind - and by "strong", I am not referring to intelligence - is superior to a weak yet unstressed mind because the strong mind can keep going when the weak mind would simply fall apart.
Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?
Personally I don't have much will to live, because life is so hard, unpleasant and unsatisfactory. I don't think it will change in the near future. I just don't enjoy life, I hate every day.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
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- Posts: 8
- Joined: Mon May 30, 2022 8:11 pm
Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?
Those are great suggestions, but is it too late for me? I'm only 16 but I've eaten red meat my whole life (On an almost daily basis), I'm afraid that this will mean that I will live way less in the futureBaobabScion wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 7:13 pmIt seems like you've developed a light-hearted yet balanced outlook on your health and life. Congratulations because that tends to be the hardest part for most people.Matt wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 1:52 pm Thanks for your input.
Sounds like my chances look pretty good, then. I do need to sit a lot less...
For me, it would be amazing to:
1 - Live all the way to 100.
2 - Shortly after that, live to see January 1st, 2100 - for better or worse, I'd have been alive for all of the 21st century.
3 - Remain useful and productive well into old age - whatever that ends up meaning during the late 21st century.
I try to remain cautious with my optimism, but this specific area looks good.
I could give supplementational advice if you're interested, but for now, just try your best to adhere to the following:
- Eat lots of vegetables. Strive for a variety of colors but prioritize dark green.
- Limit red meat intake. Honestly, you should try to limit all meat intake, but red meat is the worst offender when it comes to cardiovascular degeneration, inflammation and carcinogenic capacity.
- Walk often, sit rarely.
- Weight-train almost as often as you walk, and continue weight-training for the entirety of your life. When done intelligently, of course, this will help build the bodily constitution necessary for you to continue to provide and care for yourself well into old age.
- Clean your teeth constantly. Not only does a dirty mouth lead to dirty breath, but it also has a negative effect on the cardiorespiratory system and can spiral into debilitating pain if allowed to worsen.
- Use sunscreen, even if you're of a darker complexion. This will help to minimize cellular damage from UV-rays, which in turn will help to reduce wrinklage.
- Build mental fortitude. A will to live is necessary to keep living. It sounds like a platitude, but it's one of the deepest truths out there. A strong
mind - and by "strong", I am not referring to intelligence - is superior to a weak yet unstressed mind because the strong mind can keep going when the weak mind would simply fall apart.
- BaobabScion
- Posts: 102
- Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:41 pm
Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?
It's not too late. The earlier you make the change, the better.unnaturalmilk wrote: ↑Mon May 30, 2022 8:15 pmThose are great suggestions, but is it too late for me? I'm only 16 but I've eaten red meat my whole life (On an almost daily basis), I'm afraid that this will mean that I will live way less in the futureBaobabScion wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 7:13 pmIt seems like you've developed a light-hearted yet balanced outlook on your health and life. Congratulations because that tends to be the hardest part for most people.Matt wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 1:52 pm Thanks for your input.
Sounds like my chances look pretty good, then. I do need to sit a lot less...
For me, it would be amazing to:
1 - Live all the way to 100.
2 - Shortly after that, live to see January 1st, 2100 - for better or worse, I'd have been alive for all of the 21st century.
3 - Remain useful and productive well into old age - whatever that ends up meaning during the late 21st century.
I try to remain cautious with my optimism, but this specific area looks good.
I could give supplementational advice if you're interested, but for now, just try your best to adhere to the following:
- Eat lots of vegetables. Strive for a variety of colors but prioritize dark green.
- Limit red meat intake. Honestly, you should try to limit all meat intake, but red meat is the worst offender when it comes to cardiovascular degeneration, inflammation and carcinogenic capacity.
- Walk often, sit rarely.
- Weight-train almost as often as you walk, and continue weight-training for the entirety of your life. When done intelligently, of course, this will help build the bodily constitution necessary for you to continue to provide and care for yourself well into old age.
- Clean your teeth constantly. Not only does a dirty mouth lead to dirty breath, but it also has a negative effect on the cardiorespiratory system and can spiral into debilitating pain if allowed to worsen.
- Use sunscreen, even if you're of a darker complexion. This will help to minimize cellular damage from UV-rays, which in turn will help to reduce wrinklage.
- Build mental fortitude. A will to live is necessary to keep living. It sounds like a platitude, but it's one of the deepest truths out there. A strong
mind - and by "strong", I am not referring to intelligence - is superior to a weak yet unstressed mind because the strong mind can keep going when the weak mind would simply fall apart.
Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?
Lol. I for one definitely need to take some of the health suggestions into account. Eating less meat in particular.
If you're 16 now, I think you'll be alright haha. Definitely, definitely not too late. If you were 50 or 60 with that lifestyle, you'd probably have some damage, but 16 is so young you really should be fine.
If you're 16 now, I think you'll be alright haha. Definitely, definitely not too late. If you were 50 or 60 with that lifestyle, you'd probably have some damage, but 16 is so young you really should be fine.
I'm just a bird who escapes his cage to post here sometimes.
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Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?
True, we still have timeMatt wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 5:04 am Lol. I for one definitely need to take some of the health suggestions into account. Eating less meat in particular.
If you're 16 now, I think you'll be alright haha. Definitely, definitely not too late. If you were 50 or 60 with that lifestyle, you'd probably have some damage, but 16 is so young you really should be fine.
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- Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2022 5:17 pm
Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?
My first post on the forum!
Like the OP longevity treatments are one of the things that fascinates me about the future timeline.
As a man in his late forties I’m doing my best in terms of health and fitness to stay in peak condition for as long as reasonably possible to hopefully see a time me when I might have access to these developments. My last health assessment gave me a biological age ten years less than my actual do I figure I’m doing something right.
The comment about good oral hygiene is also spot on. I remember reading an article a few years back now that correlated poor oral hygiene with dementia.
Like the OP longevity treatments are one of the things that fascinates me about the future timeline.
As a man in his late forties I’m doing my best in terms of health and fitness to stay in peak condition for as long as reasonably possible to hopefully see a time me when I might have access to these developments. My last health assessment gave me a biological age ten years less than my actual do I figure I’m doing something right.
The comment about good oral hygiene is also spot on. I remember reading an article a few years back now that correlated poor oral hygiene with dementia.
- SerethiaFalcon
- Posts: 64
- Joined: Fri May 28, 2021 7:30 pm
Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?
Since everyone ended up talking about their own personal longevity/advice, I will add my thoughts on longevity in general. I think, if you live long, you definitely should never be obese. I looked at a few studies that said even if you once were obese and lost the weight, it still shaved off years of your life. So, the goal should be to never be obese in the first place. I can say from personal experience that once you pass that threshold, it can be very difficult to get back to a healthy weight, even into the overweight category, sometimes. Also, never have mental health issues (as if someone can control that (severe issues at least), ha!). That can also shave years off your life. Oh, and there is a certain amount of "luck" to life. As in, you know, driving and having a piece of the road fall off and slam into your windshield, killing you instantly. Freak accidents like that, and you're out. Personally, I'm already on borrowed time and have already had many near brushes with death. I don't expect to live past my 60s-70s if I'm lucky. But, I've made peace with it. I will still strive to get healthier, but there's only so much I can do (shrug). Some people are just born with a bad hand biologically/environmentally. I just hope for a death that isn't extremely torturous. However, I do hope some of you make it to see the future as you dream it to be.
Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?
The stuff about obesity reminds me of a 60 minutes documentary I re-watched recently. It was from 2013 or so.SerethiaFalcon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:48 pm Since everyone ended up talking about their own personal longevity/advice, I will add my thoughts on longevity in general. I think, if you live long, you definitely should never be obese. I looked at a few studies that said even if you once were obese and lost the weight, it still shaved off years of your life. So, the goal should be to never be obese in the first place. I can say from personal experience that once you pass that threshold, it can be very difficult to get back to a healthy weight, even into the overweight category, sometimes. Also, never have mental health issues (as if someone can control that (severe issues at least), ha!). That can also shave years off your life. Oh, and there is a certain amount of "luck" to life. As in, you know, driving and having a piece of the road fall off and slam into your windshield, killing you instantly. Freak accidents like that, and you're out. Personally, I'm already on borrowed time and have already had many near brushes with death. I don't expect to live past my 60s-70s if I'm lucky. But, I've made peace with it. I will still strive to get healthier, but there's only so much I can do (shrug). Some people are just born with a bad hand biologically/environmentally. I just hope for a death that isn't extremely torturous. However, I do hope some of you make it to see the future as you dream it to be.
They had some data taken in the early 1980s, from people in their 50s and 60s all living in a retirement village. They followed it up 30 years later to see who was still alive and why. The study focused mainly on those 90+. I remember they had a few key findings.
Being obese was never good, being stick-thin was never good, but being overweight but not obese? That was apparently good.
Exercise was paramount.
A social life was important.
Smokers died.
I think that was... pretty much it. They didn't find anything specific about alcohol?
Anyway, yeah... keeping mentally healthy is probably something I need to look at more, as well. "Never have mental health issues" RIP me, dead!
I'm just a bird who escapes his cage to post here sometimes.
Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?
I do know there is a push to classify aging as a disease. That being said, a lot of states of have aging committees that are focused on dealing with old people problems, we are looking to change that outlook on how to prevent people from having old people problems to begin with. Fixing aging is the way to go.
Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?
This is my first post on the forum as well. Although I'm following the FT page for more than 10 years.
Regarding longevity predictions, guesses are the following:
Regarding longevity predictions, guesses are the following:
- 2065 is a good "guestimate" for significant improvement in preserving the biological age
- 2040s will most likely provide some limited treatments, which would allow to improve person's wellbeing and influence some of the elements of aging
- It's not only your lifestyle that affects your longevity, but also the environment. If you can, install a good water filter, move to some area with less air pollution
- If you consider living an exceptionally long life, consider how you would like to live it. Imagine this is 2065: imagine yourself where would you like to live at that moment, what would be your profession, how would you compete for the scarce resources this planet will offer to a growing population and experienced but tired humans?
Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?
Thank you for the advice.
It's sounding like my personal prospects are pretty good, though I should consider a few lifestyle changes to reduce my risk of dying too early.
It's sounding like my personal prospects are pretty good, though I should consider a few lifestyle changes to reduce my risk of dying too early.
I'm just a bird who escapes his cage to post here sometimes.