Your 2024 Predictions thread

Talk about scientific and technological developments in the future
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Ozzie guy
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Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by Ozzie guy »

I'm throwing up this thread a little early because youtubers and such have started making 2024 predictions due to the extra hype this year. Feel free to wait until closer to the end of the year before making your own prediction.

2015 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20200811184 ... edictions/

2016 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20210420125 ... edictions/

2017 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20200810185 ... edictions/

2018 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20201126041 ... edictions/

2019 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20201112012 ... edictions/

2020 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20210415161 ... edictions/

2021 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20210420074 ... edictions/

2022 Predictions
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2113

2023 Predictions
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2693
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Ozzie guy
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by Ozzie guy »

This video is why I thought "yeah lets make the thread now"

weatheriscool
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by weatheriscool »

2024 predictions
1. Joe Biden will be reelected as he will win Pa, Mich and Wis holding the blue wall. 90% sure of this as Trump is fucked and he will be the nominee for the idiot party!
2. Democratic party will gain the house by between ~225-230
3. Republicans will gain the senate
4. Trump will be convicted in the January 6th Washington DC case. He'll be sentenced to 10-20 years of hard time....
5. Donald Trump will lose his right to do business in the state of New york and be fined hundreds of millions of dollars.
6. Putin will win reelection in Russia's election.
7. Israel will continue their war and take over gaza. Possibly claiming most of the land.
8. Star ship will successful make orbit later on in 2024 and complete it.
9. A quantum computer will be released that has 2000 plus qbits
10. A.i will continue to advance and Gpt-5 will be released in the later half of 2024.
11. The first flying car will be sold for a couple hundred thousand dollars.
12. The economy will continue to grow in the United states at 3-5%.
13. The republican party will shut the government down in early Feb causing outrage with the American public.
14. An advancement in cancer survival rates will be developed later in 2024 that will increase the life span of people will at least one form of cancer.
15. moms for liberty will be defeated big time in the 2024 election.
16. The labor party of the UK will win the 2024 election and hold over 300 seats.
17. Fusion will break yet another record for energy output.
18. Record year for renewable energy as solar energy becomes the preferred source of powering society.
firestar464
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by firestar464 »

Sadly Trump is more popular than Joe
firestar464
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by firestar464 »

IMO Pekka Haavisto will win the Finnish presidential elections. I'll be back with more predictions
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Bird
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by Bird »

I wish I had more to contribute to these. Most of my predictions are pretty safe/mundane/common anyway, or just focused on stuff I personally care about.


I predict a Biden-Trump rematch in the 2024 election (seems unbelievable typing that, but that's what everything seems to point to right now). Biden will win, but Trump will receive plenty of support despite (I predict) literally being convicted of at least one serious crime. Trump votes will possibly be more than last time (74.2 million). It will probably be a far closer race than a lot of people are expecting. Trump is actually polling BETTER than Biden right now, but I suspect that will change. It absolutely IS possible that Trump wins again, but at this stage I'm predicting otherwise.

If Trump loses, there will be an even more aggressive and far more calculated attempt to overturn the results.


(AMENDMENT, 30 July 2024: Biden has dropped out, stuffing up much of the above prediction. I am predicting a narrow to moderate Kamala Harris victory at this stage. I maintain what I wrote above about it being a fairly close race and Trump making a big effort to overturn the results if he loses.)


Ukraine war will continue past the end of 2024.

GPT-5 will release before the end of the year.

The UK general election itself may not take place this year - but if so, the Conservative party will suffer one of their most significant defeats in history. Unless they pull some seriously impressive politicking and Labour does nothing but f*ck up between then and now, I see no way around that.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's support will continue to slide due to his perceived lack of action on housing and cost of living by the Australian public (plus some lingering negative sentiments for the failed Voice campaign). Next election is not until 2025. At this stage I'm predicting sliding support for the "Big Two" parties and increases for minor parties across the political spectrum (though part of this may be just my wishful thinking.)

Amazon's "Fallout" TV show will be positively received by fans.

"Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" will be well-received also.

f*ck it... I'll predict Grand Theft Auto 6 will release before the end of the year. Plenty of people are predicting 2025, but I'm going to lock in 2024. It will - most likely - be the biggest launch in video game history to date.


I haven't really typed up one of these before. You can bet I'll be back here December 2024 to see how right or wrong I was.
Last edited by Bird on Mon Jul 29, 2024 11:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
I'm just a bird who escapes his cage to post here sometimes.
firestar464
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by firestar464 »

Matt wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 7:35 am
f*ck it... I'll predict Grand Theft Auto 6 will release before the end of the year. Plenty of people are predicting 2025, but I'm going to lock in 2024. It will - most likely - be the biggest launch in video game history to date.
Image
Tadasuke
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by Tadasuke »

Zen 5 has 20% faster cores than Zen 4, 128 core Zen 5 EPYC releases for $12,000
Radeon 8800 XT is like Radeon 7900 XTX, but for $499 and 2/3 the TDP, gamers rejoice
Windows 12 releases in Q4, requires minimum 40 teraops to run properly
Nintendo Switch 2 releases, is 8x faster with 4x more RAM, $399
PlayStation 5 "Pro" releases, 2x faster, still BRD, $599
Quest 3 sells well, gets slightly cheaper
Steam Deck also sells well
Cybertruck sells well
electric cars gain even more momentum and market share
Intel is behind AMD and Nvidia, but is building more fabs in EU and US
new Nvidia AI cards, very very costly, but faster and more VRAM
AMD continues gaining market share
Aurora (Intel) supercomputer gets 2 exaflops #1 in the TOP500 List
Intel Arc gets significantly better
Apple Vision Pro releases for $3499 and pushes AR forward
more AI integration in many places
autonomous cars get better
AI news every hour every day, more than you can reasonably digest
Starship fles successfully without humans onboard, crewed flights planned for 2025

for sure I'm going to think up more soon, but it doesn't mean I'm going to write it
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
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Bird
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by Bird »

firestar464 wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 2:35 pm
Matt wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 7:35 am
f*ck it... I'll predict Grand Theft Auto 6 will release before the end of the year. Plenty of people are predicting 2025, but I'm going to lock in 2024. It will - most likely - be the biggest launch in video game history to date.
Image
Already wrong. Trailer dropped... releases 2025.
:lol: :lol: :lol: Let's hope my other predictions age a little better
I'm just a bird who escapes his cage to post here sometimes.
firestar464
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by firestar464 »

firestar464 wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 1:51 am IMO Pekka Haavisto will win the Finnish presidential elections. I'll be back with more predictions
Pakistani elections: Imran Khan's PTI comes out on top
Indonesian elections: Prabowo Subianto wins the presidency as right-wing parties, including Subianto's Gerindra, come out on top in the legislative elections
Portuguese elections: The SDP comes out on top
Panamanian elections: Former president Ricardo Martinelli is reelected, while his RM party comes out on top in the legislative election
Lithuanian elections: The LSDP comes out on top
Uruguayan elections: The FA wins the presidency while also coming out on top in the legislative elections.
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Ozzie guy
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by Ozzie guy »

Futurism wise AGI is basically the only thing I care about I think by now it is very logical to expect it and even singularity type communities will not be seen as mentally insane by the general public. It's the only thing I really care about as it's very likely that ether we will all be screwed or it will lead to us loving our lives. I don't think the odds of some kind of middle ground are high.

I don't want to put pressure on him or annoy him but Yuli Ban has basically been right with all of his AI related predictions. He has flagged that he expects AGI in 2024 likewise David Shapiro another very smart individual who is one of the big if not the biggest singularity youtubers also expects AGI in 2024.
This is incredibly interesting to say the least and I logically feel like I should agree.


Emotionally I don't want to though, I don't want to get my hopes up and it might make sense to assume that something will go wrong/be harder than expected.
For some time I have been following this % based countdown to AGI https://lifearchitect.ai/agi/

In October it was expected to reach about 73% complete by the start of 2025 but recent breakthroughs mean it is already at 64% and bucking the trend by 5ish months.

I'm going to view 73% before 2025 as enough to not feel annoyed.
80% to feel good and any more than that even better.

Image





Regarding my personal life I have basically given up and I guess reaffirming to myself now my main goal should be surviving until the singularity and just trying to enjoy a very basic life. I have very serious issues stemming from my biology that I can't change.
I have burned through about 10K Aud since leaving my job about 7 months ago and have about 22K left.

I think the logical thing to do is get back into work and survive as long as I can maybe working part time. I want to have enough money so that when AGI is created for real I can "retire" whist waiting for changes to start happening. I understand this process in itself will probably take a few years.

Of late I have been reading and walking a lot I think getting through a large list of books is something that will naturally occur for me next year.
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funkervogt
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by funkervogt »

Here are my 2024 predictions:

In Ukraine, the war will probably remain a stalemate. If one side gains an advantage, though, it's likelier to be Russia. They might capture a non-trivial amount of additional land at terrible cost to themselves.

Israel will end its major ground operations in Gaza early next year and switch to a prolonged period of lower-intensity operations.

I don't know who will win the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. The odds are 85% that it will be a Biden-Trump rematch, in which case I give Biden a slight advantage.
There's a 10% chance either Biden or Trump won't make it to the general election, and a 5% chance neither of them will.
In other words, I'm making the somewhat bold prediction that the current conventional wisdom about a Biden-Trump rematch being a certainty is wrong.

Progress with LLMs and other types of narrow AIs will continue at roughly 2023 rates. I don't know if GPT-5 will be released in 2024 and don't think it's that important. For sure, AGI will not be invented by the end of 2024.
firestar464
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by firestar464 »

Trump will win if he is not convicted; otherwise, Biden will win.
Solaris
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by Solaris »

2024 prediction

- No AGI by 2024, and no Singularity
- Pro believers of early AGI will change their forecast of AGI to 2025 after a year of disappointment knowing that the prophecy of AGI in 2029 is getting closer
- LLM such as ChatGPT will by the end of 2024 feel almost indifferent to today in terms of the way it responds and behaves. We will very likely get the opportunity to speak to it using our voice both on PC and mobile, and other tools may as well be used, but our feel of it will remain unchanged.
- A LLM competitor will be introduced and be very popular, given that it compared to current products is almost completely unfiltered, and will be an alternative to the more modest LLM with an interface. It's as unfiltered as much as the law in an individual country allows it to be, and will be endorsed by the usual crowd that could be imagined to use such a product.
- Automation by disruptive technologies will be an ongoing topic, but almost no automation due to technologies like LLM will occur, and no broad fear of it occurring at date t and t+1 will be a phenomenon.
- The Ukraine war will remain unresolved by the end of 2024, and Putin will be reelected
- China and US relationship will continue to be tight, but no substantial changes will occur. Despite ongoing bully talk from China, Taiwan will not be invaded.
- Joe Biden will win and beat the Orange faced fraud by a margin.
- Elon will give up on X and sell it for a discount choosing to never buy any company that are a social media platform at it's core. He might choose to keep it but changing it completely back to the way Twitter was, and keeping all personal engagement far away from the platform. Overall, he will stop being a public figure by the end of 2024 and roam in the shadows.
- France will win the Euro regaining the throne from Italy. England fans will once again go home in tears and this will be the deathblow for Gareth Southgate, who will be fired following the Euro disaster.
- Super League will be completely abandoned, while Saudi Arabia will attempt to ignite the fire for a last attempt, but the remaining clubs (Barca and Real Madrid) choose to give up on their fantasy dreams. They come to the realisation that they are old dogs in a new world.
- Saudia Arabian football will be a hot topic again this summer as more players join a Saudi club. Compared to last year, more Western European players with white ethnicity will join as it becomes more common and less of a tabu. However, the arrivals will still be dominated by Latin American players, and Europeans with african roots or european players from the east. Also more younger players will arrive, so the argument of only old players joining cannot be used as effective anymore.
- Messi and Ronaldo will still play at a professional level eying to continue until the next World Cup in one last battle.
- GTA VI will get a release date in spring/summer to early 2025, but get delayed in fall to middle 2025. Two trailers will be shown. A story trailer and a gameplay trailer. Rockstar will in one of the trailers promote their innovation in NPC's, which will be even more advanced and complex than was the case in Red Dead 2. GTA VI will also display a density in NPC's unprecedented in gamin history, and also impress in terms of building in the game that can be entered.
- VR will be unchanged in terms of prospects of the way we consume games
- Hideo Kojima's Overdose will get a broader introduction introducing a new type of game never seen before. It will divide the consumer base the same way Death Stranding did back in 2019.
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by firestar464 »

Elon won't sell X. His ego is simply too big
Tadasuke
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some of Tadasuke's predictions on the future

Post by Tadasuke »

I predict that during the next ten years (2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032, 2033) general-purpose computing performance is going to grow by 20% year over year on average, at a constant price, so that in 2033 it'll be 6.2x greater than in 2024 and 7.43x greater than in 2023. Specialized (purpose specific) performance (i.e. for AI) is going to grow by 40% YoY on average, at a constant price, so that in 2033 it'll be 29x greater than in 2024 and 40.5x greater than in 2023. An average (so let's say around $1000) new laptop of 2033 will be good enough for locally running AGI (but cloud connection would make it much more capable). No AGI in 2024 yet, but getting closer.

I also predict that the total number of buildings over 200 meters in height (called "skyscrapers") on Earth is going to continue doubling every 6 years, like it has been since the year 2000 or so.

Both Switch 2 and PlayStation 5 "Pro" are going to be (released in Q4 2024) big hits and are going to sell very well. Switch 2 will be 8x faster than Switch (+ "AI" upscaling) and PS5 "Pro" will be 2x faster than PS5 (+ better "AI" upscaling). VR or AR won't "explode" neither in 2024 nor in 2025, but they might "explode" by 2030 (by then Quest 3 level of hardware is going to become very cheap and very affordable for the masses and of course significantly better equipment is going to be available for those ready to pay more [$550+] than the baseline).
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
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Yuli Ban
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by Yuli Ban »

The year everything starts getting weird.
Timeline Predictions
  • Steamboat Willie enters the public domain
  • Gemini Ultra is released by Google
  • The first AI-generated news anchors on U.S. television
  • Total solar eclipse across North America
  • Chang'e 6 lunar sample return mission
  • Euro 2024 is hosted by Germany
  • Paris hosts the Summer Olympic Games
  • First flight of the New Glenn reusable rocket
  • Indonesia gets a new capital city
  • VIPER mission to the lunar south pole
  • First crewed flight of NASA's Orion spacecraft
  • A global agreement on plastic pollution
  • The first probe to fly into the Sun's outer atmosphere
My predictions
  • AGI ACHIEVED!! (Lab says) It will be a very controversial event, but at least one AI lab will declare that they've achieved artificial general intelligence, to a mixed response as people argue over whether or not it's true. In retrospect, we'll likely see the first true sparks of general AI flying about, but there will be nothing definitive in 2024. Kurzweil likely also will downplay the breakthrough, staying cautious against declaring AGI. Most likely it will be widely considered proto-AGI.
  • GPT-4.5 unveiled and released to the masses. Though on the surface it doesn't seem to be a massive leap forward over GPT-4, likely having the same context window size of 128k tokens and possibly not even being fully multimodal but rather pseudo-multimodal like ChatGPT is, it actually will be a substantial upgrade in terms of logic, coherence, hallucination reduction, quality, and commonsense reasoning. Plus, its outputs might be substantially longer, ranging from 8k tokens to 16k or even 24k in one go, effectively allowing it to be possible to create whole novels in 10 minutes.
  • Gemini Ultra likely the most direct competitor to GPT-4.5 
  • GPT-5 not released this year, but teased heavily. 
  • Post-GPT architectures begin rolling out, moving beyond transformers. However, nothing substantial as a breakthrough is usable by the public 
  • Open-source LLMs catch up to GPT-4 quality, and even surpass it. 
  • Open-source AI image generators also catch up to DALL-E 3 quality, especially in text prompting. Both of these combined essentially open the door to R-rated and X-rated generative AI
  • Lawsuits against OpenAI flounder and fail, setting a precedent that whittles the anti-AI contingent trying to curtail generative AI, leaving only social and worker protection lawsuits as effective
  • A new update to Stable Diffusion is unveiled, likely taking advantage of that open source tech
  • Midjourney's v6 gets a few upgrades, and v7 is unveiled later in the year. The dedicated website also goes widely public. 
  • DALL-E 4 is also eventually unveiled. Though the quality isn't substantially better than DALL-E 3, the prompt understanding is at human levels up to 1,000 words ("A picture is worth a thousand words" might even be the tagline)
  • Text to Video catches up to where image generation was in 2022-2023, capable of multiple minutes of generation from a single prompt. Some experiments may allow upwards of 30 minute outputs or longer, but these almost certainly will not be commercial this year
  • The "AI Girlfriend" craze begins to take off in earnest, the first realization of the movie "Her" on a wide scale
  • Music generation also sees advancements, with OpenAI likely releasing Jukebox 2, among others 
  • AI in video game creation becomes tangibly feasible, with GPT-4.5 capable of creating SNES-quality games 
  • Generative AI becomes that much more controversial online, as artists and gamers are split on the deployment of this technology. Many e-celebs decry the use of AI, some even in any context or for any reason, while others begrudgingly or openly convert to tolerating or even supporting it
  • One unexpected figure in art also tolerates or supports the use of AI, to some extent 
  • The "Magic Media Machine" begins to take form, a dedicated app capable of coherent generative capabilities of any modality 
  • Generative AI begins transforming medicine at incredible rates, including an LLM discovering a method of "curing" a type of cancer or fatal disease
  • Agentic AI undergoes a quantum leap forward, utilizing the current generation of LLMs and the newer architectures emerging. Some people begin sounding the alarm about hidden logic states inside these agents, but interpretability research also catches up to prevent dangerous situations from arising.
  • Agents boost AI utility further, so the raw power of GPT-4 and 4.5 are more optimally exploited. Agents may allow for radical boosts in productivity, such as creating movies in Source Filmmaker, creating charts and graphs in Excel, maximizing the utility of Stable Diffusion, and much more. 
  • Longevity research also starts getting affected by AI, leading to some predictions of a breakthrough within 5 years
  • Embodied AI takes root. Robotics undergo a substantial boost in capability and utility, both in the lab and commercially. 
  • The first truly successful home robot is released, utilizing the latest abilities in AI
  • The Coffee Test, as offered by Steve Wozniak as an alternative to the Turing Test, is achieved to some extent 
  • Electric vehicles continue their relentless march forward 
  • The concept of carless cities also gets promoted further, though likely stalls in deployment for obvious reasons 
  • Solar capacity surpasses 1.5 TW world-wide 
  • AI assisted nuclear fusion research undergoes its biggest year yet, with some of the most promising experiments yet
  • Virtual reality as a market largely stalls, but does not contract. The next generation of VR begins to be unveiled, which formally teases mixed reality applications 
  • Augmented reality glasses unveiled by Apple
  • Brain computer interfaces continue their quiet march forward, with noninvasive headsets seeing greater use
  • Texting by thinking is shown off in a more substantial form at some point 
  • Global economic downturn occurs, a cooldown that risks becoming a recession. Likely will lead to new stimulus programs that will pilot basic income schemes 
  • Drone vs drone warfare continues to progress
  • Ukraine War ends with an armistice in Russia's favor, both sides declaring victory 
  • The conflict in the Middle East flares up, but only into an awkward hybrid conflict mostly to defend Israel from missile attacks
  • At least one presidential candidate (or incumbent) passes away (of natural causes)
  • As a result of AI progress, basic income becomes a much more urgent topic in mainstream parlance 
  • At least one country teases a large-scale UBI pilot
  • Passenger drones deployed in some small-scale form, likely in Dubai or China
  • 2024 Olympics boycott Russia 
  • First kilometer high skyscraper teased once more
  • Lunar landings via probes and rovers continue 
  • 6G technology first teased
  • Labor union movement revitalized worldwide, including in America and Great Britain
I Activate My Trap Cards
  • Trump wins in 2024, but dies before assuming presidency
  • Major volcanic eruption in Asia
  • GPT-5 is indeed released, and is the proto-AGI mentioned 
  • Economic downturn becomes first American economic depression since the Great Recession
  • 9.0 earthquake hits somewhere on Earth
  • AI develops cure for diabetes
  • Two-way brain to brain communication between a human and animal occurs via BCI tech
  • Biosignature of life detected on a distant exoplanet
2024 is the year I predicted things will start to get weird in daily life, and with the progress of generative AI booming this year in both entertainment and medicine, this will be showcased well. The debate about AI in art will continue, and I think if anything, it will reach a fever pitch this year with the most coordinated pushback against it. However, as I've long stated, the time to stop AI art was a decade ago, long before most people even thought AI could create art at all. Even if copyright law somehow is enforced against AI generators, synthetic data alone renders that whole effort pointless (and in fact, the ruling that AI art cannot be copyrighted just ensures that synthetic data is protected, so it's almost a case of self-inflicted defeat). So by the end of the year, the anti-AI art movement will likely be "dead" (not really, but the pushback will be recognized as a failure against the overwhelming tide of AI advancement and will shift mostly to protecting artists and workers, which I think will be far more successful). I think we'll shift from the golden hour to the blue hour of AI art in 2024. As it stands right now, we're on that cusp of twilight. In 2022 and earlier this year, AI images were clearly hypnagogic and had many issues in logical coherency and composition. Things like mutant hands, floating objects, non-Euclidian geometry in a mundane setting, and so on. In 2024, AI image generation will reach the point of being coherent and well-composed, rivaling human-created images, and that shift in quality is what will start changing the narrative even further. AI images are easy to decry when they're easy to spot and clearly deficient compared to human art, after all.

Robotics will begin pushing forward at long last, and it might even be social robots, which I once decried as useless. As it happens, social robots like Pepper were useless when they utilized 2010s-era chatbot technology, but current LLMs like GPT-4 would be perfect for them, yet the grift died right before the tech caught up to make it all useful. There's a good chance they'll make a comeback this year, as social robots will be cheaper than utility robots, and thus have a chance to be widely commercialized early on and lead into the "good stuff" later. 

And as for artificial general intelligence? I think a similar shift to blue hour will happen here too, as the SOTA in 2024 is going to be so outrageous that there will indeed be debates as to whether we've achieved AGI now or will within the next couple of years. They may even rage online, in fact, and the arrival of AI agents will make it even muddier because agent behavior will fool many people into thinking they are operating AGIs after all, especially when said agents seem to use logic to build coherent contraptions like video games or comics. Yet very smart people will point out "this is not AGI after all," citing certain deficiencies or lack of capabilities in certain areas. So it will indeed be a watershed year for the debate, but I think on the other side of it, it'll be clear that we're much closer than we thought we were if nothing else, and the rise of agentic AI will make some argue that we already achieved it. Nothing conclusive will be able to be deduced this year, however.

GPT-4.5 might be the trigger for some reflection, especially if it can create whole novels and program video games like I expect it will.  

2025 will probably be the first truly Futuristic™ year for many beyond those on this forum.

Edit: From context clues, it seems increasingly obvious that GPT-4.5 isn't going to happen, and GPT-5 will. So I'll rescind my earlier prediction and stake the claim that GPT-5 will likely be released this year, utilizing a new architecture and be the first true "transformative AI." LIkely it will be part of a higher tier of payment in ChatGPT, perhaps upwards of $50 or $100 a month, but it'll be the first AI that'll be able to earn you back that money autonomously; it'll be the first generation of AI that can actually create or earn value for a person, so it'll be more than worth the money. As for a release date, it's entirely plausible to me that it may be released on Pi Day 2024, but November 2024 is also possible.

That's going to be my last edit, now that January is wrapping up. Everything from here on in is burned in for the year.
Last edited by Yuli Ban on Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
firestar464
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by firestar464 »

MIYAZAKI EMBRACE AI???!?!?!?!??!?!?!!!??! :lol:

I think the NYT suit will be settled.
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erowind
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by erowind »

I might write in this thread by 2024 but will before it's too overdue lol, thanks for your posts everyone they're a joy to read :)
Dr. Casey
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Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread

Post by Dr. Casey »

Great post. Thanks, Yuli.
GPT-4.5 unveiled and released to the masses. Though on the surface it doesn't seem to be a massive leap forward over GPT-4, likely having the same context window size of 128k tokens and possibly not even being fully multimodal but rather pseudo-multimodal like ChatGPT is, it actually will be a substantial upgrade in terms of logic, coherence, hallucination reduction, quality, and commonsense reasoning. Plus, its outputs might be substantially longer, ranging from 8k tokens to 16k or even 24k in one go, effectively allowing it to be possible to create whole novels in 10 minutes.
To me, that does seem like a massive leap on the surface. Very much so. I've always been of the opinion that 2023 AI is competent at almost everything (except math) whenever it does well; the issue is reliability. I ordered "The AI Revolution in Medicine: GPT-4 and Beyond" and was amazed at just how capable the March release of GPT-4 was. It was incredibly capable of grasping nuance, of offering thoughtful and relevant solutions, and of understanding long, layered, complex writing... minus the 10 percent of the time it glitched out and suffered hallucinations.

So take its already impressive capabilities and simply reduce hallucinations (from its already rather low rate of 3 percent) along with patching up a couple of other weaknesses? That's huge. That would excite me more than a multi-modal model would that hasn't experienced significant improvements in hallucinations, logic, and common sense reasoning. If GPT-4.5's main emphasis is maximizing reliability, then GPT-5 can focus on things like Q-Star and other dramatic changes.
AI in video game creation becomes tangibly feasible, with GPT-4.5 capable of creating SNES-quality games
Holy shit. That would be phenomenal. Are you assuming simpler genres like sidescrollers, or games as complex as RPGs? There's obviously a difference between Contra III and Super Mario RPG, but honestly even making something on par with a 1991 SNES sidescroller would be mind-blowing.
Generative AI begins transforming medicine at incredible rates, including an LLM discovering a method of "curing" a type of cancer or fatal disease
And the best thing is, if AI is indeed capable of curing a disease, there's no reason that 2024 AI should only cure one singular disease and no other, right? It would likely be able to extend those capabilities to finding cures for multiple diseases by the end of the year. Maybe double digits, maybe triple digit (if AI is to medical care what Gnome is to material sciences).
And as for artificial general intelligence? I think a similar shift to blue hour will happen here too, as the SOTA in 2024 is going to be so outrageous that there will indeed be debates as to whether we've achieved AGI now or will within the next couple of years. They may even rage online, in fact, and the arrival of AI agents will make it even muddier because agent behavior will fool many people into thinking they are operating AGIs after all, especially when said agents seem to use logic to build coherent contraptions like video games or comics. Yet very smart people will point out "this is not AGI after all," citing certain deficiencies or lack of capabilities in certain areas. So it will indeed be a watershed year for the debate, but I think on the other side of it, it'll be clear that we're much closer than we thought we were if nothing else, and the rise of agentic AI will make some argue that we already achieved it. Nothing conclusive will be able to be deduced this year, however.
If 2024 AI does indeed reach the level described in your predictions, I'll consider it to be AGI, honestly - even if it does fall up short compared to humans in a few ways. Sure, here in December 2023 AI is for the most part an inferior form of intelligence to that which we have. It possesses some advantages, but overall we possess more. But if the situation's reversed and AI matches or exceeds us in most respects, I don't see any reason to insist that we have to be the superior intelligence just because we have a few advantages remaining. At the very least I would expect a "Separate but ultimately more or less equal" scenario, which is an incredibly different paradigm from the historical "Separate but with human beings having a clear overall advantage" (despite AI obviously having some incredibly important advantages which has accelerated certain tasks and certain fields by hundreds, thousands, millions, or billions of times).

2024 might not decisively answer the "Does AGI exist?" question, but I think there's another question that will be answered more plainly. "Does it really matter?" And I think the answer to that is... no, not really. If your predictions hold true, transformative AI will be here. You have AI that's patched up its most glaring weaknesses, is capable of creating almost any form of art at almost level of quality, and is helping humanity with its greatest forms of suffering at a speed hundreds or thousands of times faster than we've ever known before (namely the Medical Revolution which begins in 2024 thanks to AI). By the end of 2024, we will have built the tools that will build the new world. Whether those tools fit the label of AGI probably doesn't matter that much; they will have reached the level of sophistication and ability needed to allow for rapid gains in quality-of-life, for each year from 2025 onwards (maybe the latter half of 2024) to be an era where miracles are a routine thing.
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