Your 2024 Predictions thread

[erowind]

Just want to say on the AI lawsuit prediction. Copyright law is one of the few things (ironically) that might actually be able to break corporate strangle over the courts. Copyright law is backed by so many vested interests and monopolies in its own right that if they feel threatened are possibly capable of bringing other megacorporations to their knees through the US government as a proxy. As much as I despise copyright law it is entrenched in the US legal system almost as strongly as the concept of private property itself is.

Microsoft is also one of the strongest monopolies in the countries, so it remains to be seen what will happen but it really could go either way easily.

[erowind]

Also another "quick" post, I will write a larger thing eventually, perhaps while I'm on my coming trip to the far north in a few days. I'd give more details, but honestly I don't want to reveal too much personal information online these days. I'm one of those rare few who isn't photographed on the internet and who can't be googled based off of any information I post anywhere on any account. /tangent.

Anyways, this twilight Yuli Ban is describing is actually what I expect the future to be like for a long time. I've mentioned this before but not in detail. I think that the future into the 2040s-2070s is going to constantly be in this state of "is AI sentient?" for decades. AI will get more refined, exponentially so for a time and then stall out once it reaches the limits of pure derivative reasoning.

Derivative reasoning can go a very very far way though. AI's will eventually be able to generate complex stories and artworks based on existing aesthetic inputs. AIs will be able toe accelerate any scientific research that involves most schools of math and most natural science research methods. AIs will be able to plan economies effectively if they are permitted to. AIs will be able to mimic most human behaviors to a point and trick a large portion of the population into thinking they are alive in most shallow contexts. I actually think that only certain personality types will be satisfied with AI partners but it will certainly happen given that people are already satisfied with mere images of their waifu's. I don't think that AI's will be capable of mimicking complex intimacy like true companionate love.

The implications of all this are startling, it will change the world drastically and bring about most of the things that people expect from the early stages of the singularity. Social and economic change will still ultimately rest in human hands though. AI won't solve things like the Palestinian Genocide or convince us to transition away from extractive capitalism to prevent ecosystem collapse if we ourselves choose not to do these things. AI won't actually be capable of governing people even if we want it to either.

https://youtube.com/shorts/bmOSP06X6QQ?feature=shared

[Nero]

My 2024 AI predictions:

: Substantial improvements in natural language processing allow AI assistants to have more natural, human-like conversations. Assistants will be able to understand nuance, engage in witty banter, and exhibit distinct personalities tailored to individual users.

: Advances in multimodal AI let assistants seamlessly integrate multiple modes like text, voice, images and video. Assistants become capable personal assistants that can not only converse, but also see their environment and manipulate objects.

: AI assistants become capable of complex reasoning and planning. They can generate detailed step-by-step plans to accomplish goals, and reason about hypotheticals and counterfactuals. This allows them to provide sophisticated advice.

: Assistants showcase major improvements in common sense reasoning and general world knowledge. They understand how the world works at a deep level, allowing more intelligent assistance.

: AI assistants move beyond phones and speakers into more platforms like AR glasses, cars, appliances, robots and metaverse environments. They become ubiquitous and ambient in daily life.

: Regulation and ethics of AI assistants becomes a hot topic as they gain capabilities. Debates happen around privacy, data collection, transparency, bias and misuse.

: Competition heats up between tech giants in the AI assistant space. Novel architectures and training methods provide edge over competitors. The top assistants become a key gateway to AI services.

Self-Driving Cars:

: Autonomous vehicles become available for limited commercial deployment in certain areas, like ridesharing in geo-fenced locations. But full level 5 autonomy is still not reached.

: New legislation allows self-driving cars in more states, expanding where they can operate. But there is still debate around liability and regulation.

: AI makes strides in handling edge cases and unpredictable driving situations. Safety metrics continue to improve steadily.

: Self-driving trucks begin to gain traction for long-haul highway driving. Shortages accelerate adoption.

Robotics:

: Advances in computer vision, grip manipulation, and mobility allow more capable consumer/home robots. They take on useful roles like cleaning, fetching objects, security monitoring.

: Industrial and warehouse robotics continue to see rapid adoption, AI planning algorithms enable complex collaborative robot teams.

: Robotics makes promising progress in surgery and healthcare applications. Robots gain precision and autonomy to assist doctors and patients.

: Humanoid robots remain difficult and limited but new bipedal prototypes from numerous companies hint at future potential breakthroughs.

Medicine/Drugs:

: AI dramatically accelerates drug discovery and development. New compounds and treatments are found for diseases far faster.

: Gene editing technologies like CRISPR become more precise and controlled. Treatments move closer to clinical trials worldwide as they have in the UK/U.S.

: AI enables more personalized medicine and health recommendations tailored to individuals' genes, lifestyle, and environment.

: Wearable health sensors paired with AI analytics give doctors and patients better real-time data for preventing and treating illness.

Computing:

: Quantum computing takes major leaps forward, achieving quantum advantage for practical applications in chemistry, optimization, and finance.

: New neuromorphic computing architectures are developed, taking inspiration from the brain's neural networks to achieve efficiency.

: RTX 5000 series and AMD's Ryzen 8000 chips are launched to the public and provide massive gains over the previous generation, especially as relates to AI usage.

: Launch of Europe's first exascale supercomputer Jupiter, researchers will use the machine to create ‘digital twin’ models of the human heart and brain for medical purposes, and to run high-resolution simulations of Earth’s climate,

: US exascale supercomputers Aurora and El Capitan to model the create maps of the brain’s neural circuits,' and nuclear weapons.

: The UK will build but not finish their first exascale supercomputer this year after their £225M investment.

Other science predictions:

: Experiments to detect dark matter axions and definitively measure neutrino mass.

: New results from consciousness experiments.

: Mosquito factory in Brazil to produce billions of mosquitoes infected with bacteria that prevent disease transmission.

: Vera Rubin Observatory begins operations in Chile, set to discover new phenomena. Simons Observatory in Chile searching for Big Bang gravitational waves. Concerns over satellite mega-constellations interfering with ground telescope data.

So yeah, I totally agree with Yuli here, 2024 is going to be a big year and very exciting!

[firestar464]

Also another "quick" post, I will write a larger thing eventually, perhaps while I'm on my coming trip to the far north in a few days. I'd give more details, but honestly I don't want to reveal too much personal information online these days. I'm one of those rare few who isn't photographed on the internet and who can't be googled based off of any information I post anywhere on any account. /tangent.

Anyways, this twilight Yuli Ban is describing is actually what I expect the future to be like for a long time. I've mentioned this before but not in detail. I think that the future into the 2040s-2070s is going to constantly be in this state of "is AI sentient?" for decades. AI will get more refined, exponentially so for a time and then stall out once it reaches the limits of pure derivative reasoning.

Derivative reasoning can go a very very far way though. AI's will eventually be able to generate complex stories and artworks based on existing aesthetic inputs. AIs will be able toe accelerate any scientific research that involves most schools of math and most natural science research methods. AIs will be able to plan economies effectively if they are permitted to. AIs will be able to mimic most human behaviors to a point and trick a large portion of the population into thinking they are alive in most shallow contexts. I actually think that only certain personality types will be satisfied with AI partners but it will certainly happen given that people are already satisfied with mere images of their waifu's. I don't think that AI's will be capable of mimicking complex intimacy like true companionate love.

The implications of all this are startling, it will change the world drastically and bring about most of the things that people expect from the early stages of the singularity. Social and economic change will still ultimately rest in human hands though. AI won't solve things like the Palestinian Genocide or convince us to transition away from extractive capitalism to prevent ecosystem collapse if we ourselves choose not to do these things. AI won't actually be capable of governing people even if we want it to either.

https://youtube.com/shorts/bmOSP06X6QQ?feature=shared

If say, AI was like "partitioning the united states will reduce the world's suffering" people would question it and likely refuse to implement that

[wjfox]

My 2024 AI predictions:

[...]

: RTX 5000 series and AMD's Ryzen 8000 chips are launched to the public and provide massive gains over the previous generation, especially as relates to AI usage.

I think RTX 5000 is delayed until 2025. But the rest of your list is great, and very interesting.

[Ken_J]

there will be some election outcomes around the world that are upsetting, but even in the US there may be some noises made about stealing the presidency from Trump but not a repeat of the Jan 6th, as there isn't the pent up pandemic frustration, or the fluffed up fanbase of people who imagine saving their chosen monarch from being dethroned. But there will be a domestic terror attack in the US by frustrated radical right wingers who feel their country is being stolen from them and rigged against them and this is the only way to fight it. It won't insight a civil war like it's hoped, but it won't be universally condemned either. (I suspect Biden will die in office).

there will be several political scandals. careers will end.

AI will have updates that will be such background changes that the general public with not notice them and feel like it's plateaued and the novelty of this past year will drive AI in the same way as VR, and NFTs. It's not going away, and it will be effecting things deeply through background integration. Which is probably best for it's advancement. Get it out of the harsh spotlight, let the hype machine die and the useful applications come into the full use of of it without public criticism destroying progress. But it will still linger in the hype for the first half of the year at least as far as getting us to the point of AI video production and editing, music production, and 3d model creation on the creation end, the writing will get to the point of writing copy and being able to template things like resumes and a few will use them to ghost write works. But the real alpha fold type advances will happen outside the public notice.

there will be talk about robotic advances but nobody in the general population will have anything like a robot more than those roomba vacuums. It will remain like the flying cards and rocket packs that everybody asks where they are, and news will sensationalize some prototypes that people looking to secure funding will overstate the capabilities.

the first air taxis will go live for a major event and suggest the start of the flying car future, but the regulation requirements will turn it mostly into novelty tourist helicopter rides.

there will be an attempt to hype the replacement for the smartphone, likely some projected thing with jesture interface like a try at a minority report meets ironman holographic interface, but it'll get as much traction as google glass did.

I expect some big new 3d printing news is overdue. but I'm not sure what it'll be.

Expect some big news in medical sciences, possibly announcing trials for vaccines for things like heart disease and alzhiemers. but also new cancer therapies that radically improve outcomes and reduce the painfulness of treatments.
Research breakthroughs will happen at breakneck paces and the regulations and testing will not be able to nimbly keep up and get these to people who need them any faster.
there will be another scary outbreak somewhere of something that threatens to become a pandemic again, and it will panic like precovid ebola cases that got out of Africa but there won't be a new pandemic this year (though new strains of covid will continue to have death tolls and causing long covid.
There will be pieces of longevity breakthrough this year that will not make the news for most people but will be exciting for those that are watcching the space.

There will be something big on the grass roots socio-political front, either akin to what happened in the Arab spring or at the very least some of the BLM events.

The BRIC geopolitical situation will clench global sphincters tight, setting the stage for a cold war axis and allies set up, and f we are very lucky that is all we get for the next 5 years, but there may come a ferdinand event that heats the war up.

Isreal will salt the earth, and strain all the political relations that were on course to improvement in the region. Maybe not bad enough to close doors but enough to stop things from getting any better.

Ukraine will continue to get ruined... for years. This will just become an open wound for the forseeable future.

there will be major wild fires, a bad storm season, and some flooding of some large cities. And the ice cap will give a doom warning shot. as well as some big terrorist attacks.

we are going to lose a lot of big names this year. I didn't want to say celebrities because some of them will be big people but not celebrities in the entertainment sense. this is going to be a bit like 2016 in that regard.

we will not go into a recession, but 'inflation' will continue to bludgeon the low end of the economic scale.
meanwhile crypto will have another sudden millionaires event.

that's all I can come up with off the top of my head. I'm sure there's more I'll come up with later.

[Dr. Casey]

I don't really see any reason to suspect that Biden will die in 2024. It's a possibility, but just going by averages and the observable evidence it's not a probability. Going by actuarial tables, there's a mortality rate of 7.3 percent for 81 year old men, ie close to 93 percent of people who reach their 81st birthday also reach their 82nd. He's not the fittest 81 year old I've ever seen or anything, but I don't think he suffers from a level of frailty or from any life-limiting conditions that make reaching 2025 unlikely. It's pretty shaky as to whether he could survive a hypothetical second term (though an 82 year old man does have an average lifespan of almost seven years - I don't know why so many people act as though you have a 50/50 chance of dying before your next birthday the moment you reach 70), but the odds are in his favor for surviving this one.

[wjfox]

But there will be a domestic terror attack in the US by frustrated radical right wingers

Agreed. The U.S. is becoming a powder keg...

there will be several political scandals. careers will end.

T'was ever thus.

AI will have updates that will be such background changes that the general public with not notice them and feel like it's plateaued and the novelty of this past year will drive AI in the same way as VR, and NFTs.

Gonna have to strongly disagree here. I think 2024 will be just as crazy as last year with regards to AI. There might be a Dotcom-style bubble at some point in the future, but I suspect that's at least a few years away.

I expect some big new 3d printing news is overdue. but I'm not sure what it'll be.

Probably with house printing. I think we'll see more expansion of community projects with 3D-printed housing. Perhaps even the first entire town or neighbourhood of 1,000+ properties that's entirely 3D-printed.

Expect some big news in medical sciences, possibly announcing trials for vaccines for things like heart disease and alzhiemers. but also new cancer therapies that radically improve outcomes and reduce the painfulness of treatments.

Yes. We'll be hearing lots more about mRNA, and more studies that use AI to improve outcomes/detections.

there will be another scary outbreak somewhere of something that threatens to become a pandemic again, and it will panic like precovid ebola cases that got out of Africa but there won't be a new pandemic this year (though new strains of covid will continue to have death tolls and causing long covid.

I doubt there'll be another major outbreak this year, but we might hear about more cases of bird flu in humans (which thankfully get contained before they can spread any further). And with people's immune systems being weakened by each new Covid infection, I think Long Covid will see increased attention this year.

Ukraine will continue to get ruined... for years. This will just become an open wound for the forseeable future.

Agreed. And if Trump gets re-elected, Ukraine's chances of winning will be substantially lowered.

there will be major wild fires, a bad storm season, and some flooding of some large cities. And the ice cap will give a doom warning shot

Yes. This year has the potential to be even hotter than 2023. There's a lot of momentum left from last year's record-breaking heat.

[firestar464]

I don't really see any reason to suspect that Biden will die in 2024. It's a possibility, but just going by averages and the observable evidence it's not a probability. Going by actuarial tables, there's a mortality rate of 7.3 percent for 81 year old men, ie close to 93 percent of people who reach their 81st birthday also reach their 82nd. He's not the fittest 81 year old I've ever seen or anything, but I don't think he suffers from a level of frailty or from any life-limiting conditions that make reaching 2025 unlikely. It's pretty shaky as to whether he could survive a hypothetical second term (though an 82 year old man does have an average lifespan of almost seven years - I don't know why so many people act as though you have a 50/50 chance of dying before your next birthday the moment you reach 70), but the odds are in his favor for surviving this one.

Also he probably has the best medical team in the United States.

[Ken_J]

AI will have updates that will be such background changes that the general public with not notice them and feel like it's plateaued and the novelty of this past year will drive AI in the same way as VR, and NFTs.

Gonna have to strongly disagree here. I think 2024 will be just as crazy as last year with regards to AI. There might be a Dotcom-style bubble at some point in the future, but I suspect that's at least a few years away.

Just to clarify, I was saying there will be continued advances, but they will be less 'soundbite worthy' and thus seem uninteresting to the average member of the public. kind of in the same way that the limits and issues of the cyberpunk 2077 game is what everyone focused on and then stopped paying attention to the game while updates and improvements happened that to those dedicated and focused on the game claim make the game ever better, for most other casual gamers the gave it try early have filed it in their game history as a big hype that became a big mess and then was abandoned. AI got on the radar of my mother and aunt because at first it was a novel thing that was ooo and Aaaah for people. But they got bored with it quickly, and would have already faded from memory... if the AI art and students using it for writing their papers for school hadn't hit the main stream outrage news shows. But this holiday nobody was even discussing it, nobody had thought about it in weeks. Media will move on, and the general populations won't notice GPT4.5 vs GPT 5. And casual users will feel that the differences in the output is so marginally different that it mostly doesn't matter to their use cases. The technical innovations won't register for the vast majority of people, much like nobody using a computer for word processing and net browesing would notice GPU improvements in newer computers like somebody who pays attention to the GPU performance advances and the increase in what can be done with it.

To be honest though the proposed ability to make your own GPT like custom set-up and a market place to sell your custom version, may change the game substancially.

I expect some big new 3d printing news is overdue. but I'm not sure what it'll be.

Probably with house printing. I think we'll see more expansion of community projects with 3D-printed housing. Perhaps even the first entire town or neighbourhood of 1,000+ properties that's entirely 3D-printed.

me personally I want it to be medical. I want to hear something like a 3d printed skin graft, ear cartilage, heart valve, or artery bypass section. but I'll take the consolation prize of maybe something like printing all the parts to assemble a driveable EV (sans battery likely) from a 3d printer that could be owned and operated in a residence, not specialty tech or manufacturing models. or a fully printable vertical farm set-up. something like that which suggests early stages of home replicators, and set off the race for the next few years to result in home print of so much of everything we use, and open the way for digital design marketplaces.

[Powers]

AI will have updates that will be such background changes that the general public with not notice them and feel like it's plateaued and the novelty of this past year will drive AI in the same way as VR, and NFTs.

Gonna have to strongly disagree here. I think 2024 will be just as crazy as last year with regards to AI. There might be a Dotcom-style bubble at some point in the future, but I suspect that's at least a few years away.

Extremely likely in fact I would say.

[Yuli Ban]

AI in video game creation becomes tangibly feasible, with GPT-4.5 capable of creating SNES-quality games

Holy shit. That would be phenomenal. Are you assuming simpler genres like sidescrollers, or games as complex as RPGs? There's obviously a difference between Contra III and Super Mario RPG, but honestly even making something on par with a 1991 SNES sidescroller would be mind-blowing.

Assuming 4.5 has near perfect coherence and near human level basic mathematical abilities, an SNES game is usually not more than a few dozen thousand lines of code. The hard part is data assets.
But a 128k context window, assuming that translates to about 80,000 lines of code, would be enough to program Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past, which is also ~80k lines of code. If you have all the sprites and audio ready to load in, this theoretical 4.5, if it had an output context window of 16k, could recreate the game in under half an hour.


Theoretically, 4-Turbo could too, but its logical deficiencies are too great.

[raklian]

2024 will be a big year for AI governance as startups try to offer solutions that help companies stay in compliance with AI regulations.

[Dr. Casey]

AI in video game creation becomes tangibly feasible, with GPT-4.5 capable of creating SNES-quality games

Holy shit. That would be phenomenal. Are you assuming simpler genres like sidescrollers, or games as complex as RPGs? There's obviously a difference between Contra III and Super Mario RPG, but honestly even making something on par with a 1991 SNES sidescroller would be mind-blowing.

Assuming 4.5 has near perfect coherence and near human level basic mathematical abilities, an SNES game is usually not more than a few dozen thousand lines of code. The hard part is data assets.
But a 128k context window, assuming that translates to about 80,000 lines of code, would be enough to program Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past, which is also ~80k lines of code. If you have all the sprites and audio ready to load in, this theoretical 4.5, if it had an output context window of 16k, could recreate the game in under half an hour.


Theoretically, 4-Turbo could too, but its logical deficiencies are too great.

Damn. That's insane. And I guess GPT-5 could make the data assets as well.

Is there a difference between improvements in coherence, and hallucination reduction? It sounds like they're related to each other, but I'm guessing they're not the same thing since you listed them separate in your original post?

Honestly, if 4.5 turns out to be as good as you say - almost perfect coherence, drastic reduction in hallucinations, capable of creating SNES-level games, good at basic math, competent at almost any intellectual task - I'll consider 4.5 to be the world's first (limited) AGI. The limitations being those imposed by context windows, as well as being unable to do certain things if it's not fully multi-modal. In terms of output it would be around the competency level and reliability of a person at most tasks. There's no universal consensus on what constitutes AGI (and Proto-AGI has even less of one), but 4.5 sounds like it might reach the "Does it really matter that much anymore? The weaknesses are disappearing and the capabilities are insane" level.

[Yuli Ban]

Updated my predictions to add a single extra point...

Edit: updated to also change my feelings on GPT-5.

[funkervogt]

I don't know who will win the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. The odds are 85% that it will be a Biden-Trump rematch, in which case I give Biden a slight advantage.
There's a 10% chance either Biden or Trump won't make it to the general election, and a 5% chance neither of them will.
In other words, I'm making the somewhat bold prediction that the current conventional wisdom about a Biden-Trump rematch being a certainty is wrong.

[Bird]

I don't know who will win the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. The odds are 85% that it will be a Biden-Trump rematch, in which case I give Biden a slight advantage.
There's a 10% chance either Biden or Trump won't make it to the general election, and a 5% chance neither of them will.
In other words, I'm making the somewhat bold prediction that the current conventional wisdom about a Biden-Trump rematch being a certainty is wrong.

I really didn't think he would drop out. A fair few of my (fairly unambitious) predictions in this thread have panned out, but I am one such person whose confident Biden-Trump rematch prediction didn't happen.

It might be for the best... but I'm not sure

[firestar464]

I sincerely hope Joe's just showing Kamala the ropes before resigning. We really need the incumbency advantage

[Ozzie guy]

Even though odds are in Trump's favor I am predicting a democrat victory for the 2024 election. I said other things in status updates a day ago but hadn't really thought about it or seen public reactions.

Kamala is normal and a good age Trump is not (like him or not you have to admit he is eccentric).
Looking at the early reactions on MAGA twitter and such there is little to no dirt on Kamala. People are treating it like a big victory to make fun of her laugh I have even seen people make fun of the fact she uses the same phrase in many speeches (like every politician ever has done).
https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1815112445608010006
I have seen misogynist attacks with conservative figures saying things like she has slept with people to reach the top which will only isolate them.
Much of the republican lead over dem isn't based on party policy but that they were up against someone who if wasn't famous may be in a nursing home.

My rough timeline for a democrat win would be like this.
Not much happens until the democratic convention in late august with people presuming the dems will lose.
After the convention the party will rally behind Kamala and an election platform will have been made.
Kamala and dems will slowly gain traction by appearing in the media as not only the normal candidate but as a younger and "hip" in touch one.
Plus a boost for being the potential first female president and second black president.
Celebrities such as Taylor Swift and Beyonce will start to endorse Kamala.
Trump will be told to avoid debating her but she will appear in the media and imply Trump is weak and too scared to debate her etc
He will fall for the bait due to his ego and in debates be demolished by a young normal woman who worked as a prosecutor (effectively a professional attack dog and debater).
Kamala is normal and there is little dirt on her with the opposite being true for Trump.
Unhinged attacks and conspiracies about her will only help her. She is not some super establishment figure like Clinton and this isn't the 2016 Trump who was younger and more energetic with the anti-woke pendulum swung amongst young people. (old people are usually conservative so presumably young people made the difference).

[firestar464]

Hopefully she gets a boost if she's able to become the actual POTUS soon