2045 predictions

Talk about scientific and technological developments in the future
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funkervogt
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

This article from last year makes several predictions for 2045. It's a bit technical and hard to understand.
https://compoundsemiconductor.net/artic ... rs/feature

I was able to derive these predictions from its text:

1) LEDs will be much cheaper, better, and smaller than they are today. LEDs that output deep ultraviolet light that quickly kills microorganisms and viruses will be widespread, which will benefit public health. More:
"The entire world is currently looking for effective solutions to disinfect the coronavirus," said Professor Mamane. "The problem is that in order to disinfect a bus, train, sports hall, or plane by chemical spraying, you need physical manpower, and in order for the spraying to be effective, you have to give the chemical time to act on the surface. Disinfection systems based on LED bulbs, however, can be installed in the ventilation system and air conditioner, for example, and sterilize the air sucked in and then emitted into the room.

"We discovered that it is quite simple to kill the coronavirus using LED bulbs that radiate ultraviolet light," she explained. "We killed the viruses using cheaper and more readily available LED bulbs, which consume little energy and do not contain mercury like regular bulbs. Our research has commercial and societal implications, given the possibility of using such LED bulbs in all areas of our lives, safely and quickly."

The researchers tested the optimal wavelength for killing the coronavirus and found that a length of 285 nanometers (nm) was almost as efficient in disinfecting the virus as a wavelength of 265 nm, requiring less than half a minute to destroy more than 99.9% of the coronaviruses. This result is significant because the cost of 285 nm LED bulbs is much lower than that of 265 nm bulbs, and the former are also more readily available.

Eventually, as the science develops, the industry will be able to make the necessary adjustments and install the bulbs in robotic systems or air conditioning, vacuum, and water systems, and thereby be able to efficiently disinfect large surfaces and spaces. Professor Mamane believes that the technology will be available for use in the near future.

It is important to note that it is very dangerous to try to use this method to disinfect surfaces inside homes. To be fully effective, a system must be designed so that a person is not directly exposed to the light.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 164328.htm

2) LEDs and lasers will be cheaper, better, and more energy efficient. Among other things, this means video projector devices will improve in every way by 2045. Specific predictions might include:
a. By 2045, anyone will be able to afford what would today be a movie theater-quality digital film projector. For a few hundred dollars, you could buy a machine that could project 8K-quality color footage onto the outside wall of your house or another building.
b. By 2045, your smartphone will have a small laser emitter that will be able to project high-quality images and video footage against a wall, and will consume so little energy that you will be able to watch a full-length film on one battery charge. In other words, wherever you are, so long as you have a blank, light-colored wall, you will be able to make a big-screen TV. You would prop your smartphone against something like a backpack or small stack of books to get the correct angle for the laser beam.

3) Commercial solar panels will be 50% - 60% efficient at converting sunlight into electricity.
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raklian
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by raklian »

funkervogt wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 2:08 pm If AGI doesn't exist by 2045, it will be because we lack the software.
Or stamping out any attempts to build an AGI out of fear because they watched too many Terminator movies.
To know is essentially the same as to not to know. The only thing that occurs is entropy.
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funkervogt
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

There will be something you could call a "self-driving RV vacation industry" that would borrow some elements from the cruise ship industry. A person would rent a self-driving RV that would be programmed to take them on a multi-day tour of some area, hitting all the important sights. At each sight, a virtual tour guide that the person could see, hear and interact with through smart glasses would lead the person around on foot.
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funkervogt
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

raklian wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:02 pm
funkervogt wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 2:08 pm If AGI doesn't exist by 2045, it will be because we lack the software.
Or stamping out any attempts to build an AGI out of fear because they watched too many Terminator movies.
Some company or government agency will build one. A global ban on AGI development is unenforceable.
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raklian
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Re: 2045 predictions

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There's the potential that death could become "optional" or lifespans greatly extended by 2045, thanks to new anti-aging discoveries that were accelerated by vastly improved artificial intelligence. The anti-aging rejuvenations might be limited to the very wealthy until national governments mandate them in order to contain healthcare costs that are spiraling out of control eating into their already stretched-thin budgets.
To know is essentially the same as to not to know. The only thing that occurs is entropy.
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funkervogt
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

b. By 2045, your smartphone will have a small laser emitter that will be able to project high-quality images and video footage against a wall, and will consume so little energy that you will be able to watch a full-length film on one battery charge. In other words, wherever you are, so long as you have a blank, light-colored wall, you will be able to make a big-screen TV. You would prop your smartphone against something like a backpack or small stack of books to get the correct angle for the laser beam.
Of course, by 2045, VR goggles will be much better than today's in every way, so you will also be able to "make a big-screen TV" for yourself in VR and watch movies that way.

So, the broader prediction should be that, by 2045, any person will be able to use his personal technologies to create a highly immersive audiovisual experience almost anywhere.
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by wjfox »

What are we expecting to be the most common uses/roles for human-like robots?

I'm guessing household chores such as cleaning, cooking and tidying, as well as looking after children and elderly family members.

They'd also be popular as sex workers, I'd imagine...

I foresee the first human-robot marriages by mid-century.

Any other suggestions?
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BaobabScion
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by BaobabScion »

Training partners. I can imagine that people in combat sports will use them quite a bit. Fight as hard as you can for as long as you can against an enemy that you can't hurt and who won't hurt you - unless you want it to for conditioning's sake, in which case it'll give ya' a nice little bruising.
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raklian
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by raklian »

wjfox wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:39 pm
I foresee the first human-robot marriages by mid-century.
I'll probably will be the world's oldest groom to a robot bride. :lol: :lol:
To know is essentially the same as to not to know. The only thing that occurs is entropy.
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by wjfox »

Here it is. Hope you like it.

Let me know if you think I should add/change anything. I decided to focus almost entirely on AI and robots. I may add the other suggestions as separate predictions following this.

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2045

An inflection point for human-AI interactions

By 2045, artificial intelligence (AI) has reached a level of development that is beginning to reshape human society and culture in profound ways. This year marks the date of the so-called technological singularity postulated by futurist Ray Kurzweil.* Although Kurzweil tended to be overly optimistic in a number of specific future predictions,** his basic premise of exponential growth in technology proved to be accurate.

Speculation abounds during this time, much like the build up to Y2K in 1999, the Mayan calendar predictions in 2012, and other such dates. The Internet is abuzz with rumours and singularity-related memes. While most of this talk is unfounded hype – with life carrying on as normal for most people – the "normal" of 2045 is changing at a pace that would seem alarmingly rapid to observers from earlier decades. The leaps in technology from 2020 to 2045 have been much more noticeable than those during the same timespan from 1995 to 2020.

Robots, for example, are now widespread in everyday society, their numbers having expanded by orders of magnitude in preceding decades.** They are ubiquitous in factories, farms and industrial environments, eliminating much of the traditional manual work of humans.** Additionally, these machines have gained visibility in more public settings, giving a futuristic look and feel to many cities, towns and suburbs. Similar to how touchscreen smartphones moved from science fiction to reality some 40 years earlier, these robots are quickly becoming accepted as a routine part of life. This includes fully automated waste collection in streets and parks, robotic cleaners in offices and hotels, robot security patrols, robots for grocery and other deliveries. Such applications had begun to emerge during the 2010s. Following exponential growth, they are a common sight by 2045. Furthermore, bipedal humanoid form factors account for a growing percentage of newly deployed units, particularly in homes and other indoor settings.

With a ten-thousand-fold improvement in computing power compared to 25 years previously,* robots in 2045 can perform a multitude of tasks independently and without human supervision.

Many years previously, advances in deep learning and natural language processing had made it possible to generate portions of text indistinguishable from a human writer, which led to chatbots passing the Turing test, a major landmark in the field. Alongside this natural language processing, AI gained the ability to master real world environments and an increasingly diverse range of 3D objects. Whereas earlier robots had been limited to "fixed" movements, the generation now emerging had more dynamism and flexibility – adapting to new situations and solving more and more problems. These capabilities received a boost from 5G and then 6G wireless communication and the exponentially growing amounts of data being gathered from sensors, allowing robots to learn from their experiences and disseminate knowledge to each other.

In the past, limited processing power meant that robots would often spend minutes identifying an object or situation and the interaction required. By 2045, however, these calculations can be performed in near real-time, enabling a much more human-like response. Although a few technological hurdles remain, this is close to what many would consider to be artificial general intelligence (AGI).*

In addition to their cognitive abilities, some of the latest robots have gained extremely lifelike appearances. The most advanced models are now crossing the 'Uncanny Valley', with faces and bodies that appear almost – but not quite entirely – like a real person.* This bizarre and disturbing phenomenon is fuelling demand for more natural-looking facial expressions and limb movements. The problem is solved by user feedback (the robots can auto-detect a person's emotional response – good or bad), combined with techniques such as motion capture, in a process that is somewhat similar to generative adversarial networks. These subtle iterations of data are used to determine the "best" appearance and movement, allowing gradual optimisation in successive generations of machines. 3D printed bones, amounting to all 206 in the human anatomy, along with new materials developed for more flexible skin and muscles, as well as more realistic eyes and teeth, help to iron out the remaining issues.



Image



These cutting-edge prototypes are rarely seen by average members of the public, being mostly restricted to government, corporate, and research institutions, households of the rich and famous, TED talks and so on. Less advanced models are now relatively common in society, however. They are popular for those in upper-middle income brackets and are comparable in cost to a second car or similar major purchase. Their roles include household chores such as cleaning, cooking and tidying, as well as looking after children and elderly family members.*

Although typically geofenced within the owner's property and/or local neighbourhood, these androids can also be seen further afield. They serve as excellent training partners on sports grounds, running tracks, parks and other leisure settings. Being able to replicate movements, it is possible to play against the recreation of a tennis champion, for example – or fight against a famous boxer. With the right motion capture, an owner can even play against a version of themselves if they desire.

Androids had emerged in the sex industry some decades earlier, though in rudimentary forms with limited functionality. The sex robots of 2045 are incomparably more sophisticated and engaging, to the point that many customers (mostly men) are forming long-term relationships with machines. Human-robot marriages are legalised in some jurisdictions in the latter half of this decade.**

There are many moral, ethical, legal, economic and philosophical issues around the proliferation of robots in society – all of which contribute to a growing sense of "future shock" around this time.

Other singularity-like effects are emerging in 2045. This includes the ever more rapid progress of brain-computer interfaces, enabling deeper integration of AI and human intelligence, going beyond medicine and into consumer uses such as gaming and VR, as well as education. On-person technology in general is becoming exquisitely compact and miniaturised – such as bionic eyes nearing human levels of visual acuity* and single-chip devices now approaching the size of individual blood cells.* Meanwhile, the option to extend one's lifespan appears to be a realistic prospect, thanks to recent success in human rejuvenation trials.

The rapid growth of AI and robotics, alongside many other disruptive technologies, is occurring at a time of geopolitical turmoil, as the world grapples with a convergence of social, economic and environmental issues the likes of which have never been seen before. This volatility and the sheer pace of change is creating a "mental blur" for many people in 2045 – a sense that humanity is reaching a pivotal moment in history.



References:

1. The Singularity is Near, by Ray Kurzweil

2. Kurzweil's 2009 was our 2019:
[Reddit link]

3. Timing the Singularity, Part 1
Kartik Gada, YouTube

4. Industrial robot population, 1990-2040:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/2.htm

5. Personal service robot population, 2000-2050:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/3.htm

6. 2025-2050 – Technological unemployment is rising rapidly:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcent ... #2025-2050

7. 2039 – Manufacturing jobs have largely disappeared in the West:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcent ... uring-jobs

8. Moore’s Law 1970-2100:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/9.htm

9. Viewpoint: When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts
https://jair.org/index.php/jair/article/view/11222

10. Uncanny valley
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncanny_valley

11. Strategic Trends Programme: Global Strategic Trends - Out to 2045, Ministry of Defence:
https://espas.secure.europarl.europa.eu ... 202045.pdf

12. Humans will be marrying robots by 2045
https://canoe.com/news/world/humans-wil ... ts-by-2045

13. A.I. expert David Levy says a human will marry a robot by 2050
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/day6/episode-3 ... -1.3921101

14. See 2048:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcent ... ionic-eyes

15. World's smallest single-chip system is <0.1 mm³
https://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/202 ... me-mm3.htm
"Take it easy, nothing matters in the end."
– William Shatner
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