Your 2025 Predictions

[Yuli Ban]

Completely wrong on the proto-AGI front
Completely wrong about GPT-5. It was better in a FEW metrics, but it has actually been WORSE than GPT-4 in others (for me)
That class of model releasing en masse isn't anything great. I had higher hopes for the GPT-5 class than what we actually got.
A lot of my AI predictions completely failed, because I expected "2025 AI" to be way better than what actually happened. Of course, ever since I locked in to study a bit of machine learning and transformers to understand why they keep failing, I'm not surprised by their failure. There are legitimate reasons why transformers aren't proto-AGI, even with time test compute and memory augmentations.
I put on my 2026 predictions, but I'll get around to those. I will, regrettably, be way more conservative with my AI predictions than I typically have been.
I do have a lot to say about it though, and a few things I expect to happen.
Solar and wind, contrary to "official" expectations for it to slow down, I fully expect to actually smash records this year easily, so 2025's boom was welcome and I hope to see it accelerate. But that also ties into some of my geopolitical predictions. That's the main area that's holding me back; I want to get a better feel for China, India, and some other states first.

Also, all of my wild cards failed. Dang it! (well some of them failed for the best)

[firestar464]

About mine, all I'll say is that I need to stop being so apocalyptic.