AI develops at the same speed as Moore's law argument
Posted: Tue Jul 27, 2021 5:35 am
The other day I listened to OpenAi's CEO in a interview he said the he thinks AI develops on a smooth exponential curve.
It got me thinking again what is this magical growth rate for AI?
Then I realised the development rate of AI is probably around the same as Moore's law.
The further away hardware capabilities are from AI capabilities the easier it is to develop AI, the closer AI is to hardware capabilities the harder it is to develop AI. This creates pressure so that on average AI develops at the same rate as computer hardware.
This rate being doubling every two years which is about 41.3% better every year.
It got me thinking again what is this magical growth rate for AI?
Then I realised the development rate of AI is probably around the same as Moore's law.
The further away hardware capabilities are from AI capabilities the easier it is to develop AI, the closer AI is to hardware capabilities the harder it is to develop AI. This creates pressure so that on average AI develops at the same rate as computer hardware.
This rate being doubling every two years which is about 41.3% better every year.
