2045 predictions

Talk about scientific and technological developments in the future
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funkervogt
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

wjfox wrote: Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:06 pm Detroit: Beyond Human was IMO a very accurate portrayal of what to expect. I really recommend that game to everyone here.

Basically, the androids start out passive and compliant, but gradually become more aware of – and resistant to – their slave-like status.

So I believe these robot servants will initially be like highly intelligent Roombas, completely docile. But over time, as they develop into more advanced and capable models, more "emergent" behaviours and subjective experiences will trigger a kind of breakthrough point in their programming. This will eventually culminate in them being recognised as fully sentient individuals with rights and freedoms.
As an important caveat, I'd like to add that, even after AGI has been created, it won't be infused into every robot. For example, a Roomba whose purpose it is to vacuum floors would not benefit from having human-level intelligence. The benefits would probably top out at cockroach-level.

It would also be more trouble than it was worth to make more intelligent robots than was absolutely necessary, as such machines would be smart enough to behave unpredictably, and to demand more rights.

Even if Skynet ran the world, it wouldn't make every machine intelligent; it would see the value in keeping most of them dumb and incapable of performing more than narrow ranges of tasks.
I agree with 2040-45 as the inflection point when we'll start to see very human-like robots in home settings. They will also be popular as sex workers, and it might even be possible to get legally married to one, in some jurisdictions at least. But probably a few more decades before they are truly self-aware and independently making a mark on society.

I wonder how they'll be constructed? Presumably some sort of 3D printing process, perhaps replicating the 206 bones in the human body, with an outer polymer layer of skin. Tweaks available for different build types, gender, skin tones, etc. I imagine the face and mouth movements will be especially challenging to replicate. Maybe this could be solved with a kind of GAN-like process, where the movements are mapped in 3D and then optimised to match the most human-like subtleties. New materials might also be needed for more realistic skin, as well as the "twinkle" effect of eyes.
I doubt sex androids will replicate every aspect of internal human anatomy. It's possible that incorporating only 103 bones into their skeletons will make them outwardly indistinguishable from humans. Additionally, since sex with them will mostly happen in dark or low-light conditions, deficiencies in the humanness of their faces and expressions will be masked.
Last edited by funkervogt on Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Nero
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by Nero »

A lot of the practical applications of machines will not require AI to function much better than it does now in 2021. Generally most of a specific task can be replicated and you really do not need to achieve anything beyond that. It is more likely that machines remain stupid but grouped via some form of IoT that is within the boundaries of their intelligence, this will probably lead to more machines but smaller doing more and more specified tasks.
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funkervogt
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

Nero wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:07 am A lot of the practical applications of machines will not require AI to function much better than it does now in 2021. Generally most of a specific task can be replicated and you really do not need to achieve anything beyond that. It is more likely that machines remain stupid but grouped via some form of IoT that is within the boundaries of their intelligence, this will probably lead to more machines but smaller doing more and more specified tasks.
Right. Nature itself provides a picture of what the optimal setup looks like. There are many thousands of animal species on Earth, but only one of them has intelligence. By far, the most common animals are small, simple, and only capable of doing one or two functions that support the broader ecosystem. This is an insect-dominated planet, and each species has a little niche.

This also touches on why I don't think the discovery of AGI will be necessary to cause widespread technological unemployment. By building thousands of types of robots that only have cockroach-level intelligence and training them to do one task apiece (e.g. - mow lawn, drive car, wash windows, sell insurance), we could automate most human jobs.
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wjfox
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by wjfox »

I need a new title for this 2045 prediction. Suggestions welcome.

Currently thinking of "An inflection point for human-AI interactions" or something similar.
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raklian
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by raklian »

wjfox wrote: Sun Aug 29, 2021 8:40 pm I need a new title for this 2045 prediction. Suggestions welcome.

Currently thinking of "An inflection point for human-AI interactions" or something similar.
New era for human-AI relationship?
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
TrueAnimationFan
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by TrueAnimationFan »

2045 - 2050
Machine intelligence is rivalling that of biological humans
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wjfox
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by wjfox »

Thanks for your comments and suggestions so far, guys. I now have a better idea of what to write about – mainly the spread of humanoid robotics in home and workplace settings, the progress of generalised AI, integration of BCIs and other implants, ongoing improvements in computing, etc.

I just need some links/references to make this prediction more credible.

Anything you can find that relates to 2045, or includes mentions of "25 years from now", "the 2040s", "mid-century", etc. would be helpful.

Ideally what I'm looking for is graphs/projections and long-term reports from governments, market analysts, and research institutes, recent books by experts in their field, etc. Alternatively, non-sensationalist articles from reputable news sites, journals, science magazines, and whatnot.

In fact, it doesn't even have to mention 2045 specifically – even a partial trend or projection to, say, 2030, would be very helpful, as I can extrapolate further into the future. So, any useful data relating to AI and robotics would be helpful, such as trends in language/image processing algorithms, and how the speed and abilities of robots are changing over time, plus the general trends in computing technology, device sizes, market growth, costs, etc.

I may briefly mention The Singularity is Near, but since that book is now 16 years old, and increasingly outdated, it's the previously-mentioned sources that are really preferred. Thanks! :)
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raklian
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by raklian »

wjfox wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:01 am Thanks for your comments and suggestions so far, guys. I now have a better idea of what to write about – mainly the spread of humanoid robotics in home and workplace settings, the progress of generalised AI, integration of BCIs and other implants, ongoing improvements in computing, etc.

I just need some links/references to make this prediction more credible.

Anything you can find that relates to 2045, or includes mentions of "25 years from now", "the 2040s", "mid-century", etc. would be helpful.

Ideally what I'm looking for is graphs/projections and long-term reports from governments, market analysts, and research institutes, recent books by experts in their field, etc. Alternatively, non-sensationalist articles from reputable news sites, journals, science magazines, and whatnot.

In fact, it doesn't even have to mention 2045 specifically – even a partial trend or projection to, say, 2030, would be very helpful, as I can extrapolate further into the future. So, any useful data relating to AI and robotics would be helpful, such as trends in language/image processing algorithms, and how the speed and abilities of robots are changing over time, plus the general trends in computing technology, device sizes, market growth, costs, etc.

I may briefly mention The Singularity is Near, but since that book is now 16 years old, and increasingly outdated, it's the previously-mentioned sources that are really preferred. Thanks! :)
The best I could find is this: https://ai100.stanford.edu/sites/g/file ... 831fnl.pdf
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
Doozer
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by Doozer »

I predict that both graphene and nuclear fusion will be fully commercialized at this point. There are only very few fusion reactors and graphene is still mostly reserved for large-scale industrial use. Fusion is however slowly reducing the need to burning coal for electricity and graphene is applied to everything including construction, electronics and filtration.

The world's population however has reached crisis levels and plans are underway to establish space colonies. Efforts are made in undoing as much environmental destruction as possible thanks to new technologies and sciences. As for health, many common deadly diseases such as cancer and AIDS have been reduced greatly with ever advancing medicine.
Last edited by Doozer on Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
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funkervogt
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

By 2045, hardware and its costs will be no barrier to building an AGI. A computer with as much computation and memory storage as a human brain will cost only about $1 million. If AGI doesn't exist by 2045, it will be because we lack the software.
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