Re: 2045 predictions
Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2021 2:52 pm
This article from last year makes several predictions for 2045. It's a bit technical and hard to understand.
https://compoundsemiconductor.net/artic ... rs/feature
I was able to derive these predictions from its text:
1) LEDs will be much cheaper, better, and smaller than they are today. LEDs that output deep ultraviolet light that quickly kills microorganisms and viruses will be widespread, which will benefit public health. More:
2) LEDs and lasers will be cheaper, better, and more energy efficient. Among other things, this means video projector devices will improve in every way by 2045. Specific predictions might include:
a. By 2045, anyone will be able to afford what would today be a movie theater-quality digital film projector. For a few hundred dollars, you could buy a machine that could project 8K-quality color footage onto the outside wall of your house or another building.
b. By 2045, your smartphone will have a small laser emitter that will be able to project high-quality images and video footage against a wall, and will consume so little energy that you will be able to watch a full-length film on one battery charge. In other words, wherever you are, so long as you have a blank, light-colored wall, you will be able to make a big-screen TV. You would prop your smartphone against something like a backpack or small stack of books to get the correct angle for the laser beam.
3) Commercial solar panels will be 50% - 60% efficient at converting sunlight into electricity.
https://compoundsemiconductor.net/artic ... rs/feature
I was able to derive these predictions from its text:
1) LEDs will be much cheaper, better, and smaller than they are today. LEDs that output deep ultraviolet light that quickly kills microorganisms and viruses will be widespread, which will benefit public health. More:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 164328.htm"The entire world is currently looking for effective solutions to disinfect the coronavirus," said Professor Mamane. "The problem is that in order to disinfect a bus, train, sports hall, or plane by chemical spraying, you need physical manpower, and in order for the spraying to be effective, you have to give the chemical time to act on the surface. Disinfection systems based on LED bulbs, however, can be installed in the ventilation system and air conditioner, for example, and sterilize the air sucked in and then emitted into the room.
"We discovered that it is quite simple to kill the coronavirus using LED bulbs that radiate ultraviolet light," she explained. "We killed the viruses using cheaper and more readily available LED bulbs, which consume little energy and do not contain mercury like regular bulbs. Our research has commercial and societal implications, given the possibility of using such LED bulbs in all areas of our lives, safely and quickly."
The researchers tested the optimal wavelength for killing the coronavirus and found that a length of 285 nanometers (nm) was almost as efficient in disinfecting the virus as a wavelength of 265 nm, requiring less than half a minute to destroy more than 99.9% of the coronaviruses. This result is significant because the cost of 285 nm LED bulbs is much lower than that of 265 nm bulbs, and the former are also more readily available.
Eventually, as the science develops, the industry will be able to make the necessary adjustments and install the bulbs in robotic systems or air conditioning, vacuum, and water systems, and thereby be able to efficiently disinfect large surfaces and spaces. Professor Mamane believes that the technology will be available for use in the near future.
It is important to note that it is very dangerous to try to use this method to disinfect surfaces inside homes. To be fully effective, a system must be designed so that a person is not directly exposed to the light.
2) LEDs and lasers will be cheaper, better, and more energy efficient. Among other things, this means video projector devices will improve in every way by 2045. Specific predictions might include:
a. By 2045, anyone will be able to afford what would today be a movie theater-quality digital film projector. For a few hundred dollars, you could buy a machine that could project 8K-quality color footage onto the outside wall of your house or another building.
b. By 2045, your smartphone will have a small laser emitter that will be able to project high-quality images and video footage against a wall, and will consume so little energy that you will be able to watch a full-length film on one battery charge. In other words, wherever you are, so long as you have a blank, light-colored wall, you will be able to make a big-screen TV. You would prop your smartphone against something like a backpack or small stack of books to get the correct angle for the laser beam.
3) Commercial solar panels will be 50% - 60% efficient at converting sunlight into electricity.