Ray's only predictions I care about are the AI ones.
Given recent developments in AI is his predictions about AI correct (whist maybe true in a different form is their ability in line with what he predicted) as this would indicate his human level AGI before 2030 prediction is correct.
Are Ray Kurzweils AI predictions on track?
Re: Are Ray Kurzweils AI predictions on track?
I think so. Now, it's a long time since I read his "Singularity is near", but his main prediction is the passing of the Turing test in 2029. I think that is likely, although I think the AI will be very different from human I, so tweaking is needed for the AI to answer more similar to humans.
I don't agree with his prediction that it takes 16 years before the AGI is mature and the singularity happens. It will be much faster, I believe.
I don't agree with his prediction that it takes 16 years before the AGI is mature and the singularity happens. It will be much faster, I believe.
- funkervogt
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Re: Are Ray Kurzweils AI predictions on track?
You can read all about how Kurzweil's predictions about AI and everything else are faring here:
https://www.militantfuturist.com/how-ra ... re-faring/
https://www.militantfuturist.com/the-ku ... nt-matter/
Be warned, you'll need 45 minutes to get through it all.
https://www.militantfuturist.com/how-ra ... re-faring/
https://www.militantfuturist.com/the-ku ... nt-matter/
Be warned, you'll need 45 minutes to get through it all.
Re: Are Ray Kurzweils AI predictions on track?
Going by Kurzweil's track record, his predictions are largely 10-15 years behind the reality. We're certainly catching up on several of those we missed for 2009, though he's now wrong about there being no economic downturn; he couldn't foresee COVID-19.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future