Your 2022 predictions

Talk about scientific and technological developments in the future
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urdestan
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Your 2022 predictions

Post by urdestan »

Your 2015 Predictions
Your 2016 Predictions
Your 2017 Predictions
Your 2018 Predictions
Your 2019 Predictions
Your 2020 Predictions
Your 2021 Predictions 


Is it too early to start doing these predictions for next year? I missed these kinds of predictions in the old forums when I was a lurker, sadly many of the previous predictions kind got removed when the forums switched. Anyway, if anyone has thought of any predictions next year, be technology or politics, maybe even reserve your predictions until December, since I doubt that we’ll get anything by the end of October, feel free to put it down on this thread, I guess.

If anyone by the end of the year could at least have their 2021 predictions (that were posted on the old forums) reviewed somehow as well, that’ll be good enough.

Alternatively, someone would make a better thread than this one and this thread might be merged or sidestepped by it. Who knows.
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Ozzie guy
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Re: 2022 predictions

Post by Ozzie guy »

Trump announces second presidency run (I think he will do this in 2023 but 2022 is possible)

A major AI development occurs that excites futurists across sites like this and Reddit (A development that is talked about for a long time like GPT3)

Elon Musk runs into some serious trouble like loss of wealth or severe reputation damage.

Less and less people care about self driving cars as they are normalised as a technology that is underdeveloped but without the original hype.
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urdestan
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Re: 2022 predictions

Post by urdestan »

Here's some of my 2022 predictions, with politics in it. (Some of them being really divisive)
  • Booster shots are now commonplace across the world to keep people immunised from COVID-19 as life becomes 'normal' again, with restrictions being loosened and air travel resumes to most countries (except for China notably, which still practices a zero tolerance approach), so international tourism is returning. We might be seeing second booster shots being done in mid-late 2022.
  • The Australian Labor Party is elected as government in the 2022 Australian federal election. (I won't be surprised if Liberals are still re-elected)
  • Either a centre-right figure like Xavier Bertrand is elected as President of France for the 2022 election or Macron is re-elected. (I cannot see Le Pen winning 2022 unlike what I thought it could happen 2 years ago, given that her audience is now shifting to Eric Zemmour in the last few weeks, who is more extreme than her)
  • Bolsonaro is re-elected in the 2022 Brazilian general election, but later reports show that the election has been partly rigged to his favour, causing further outrage in the country.
  • Artemis 1's rocket finally gets launched into space, paving the way for the SLS to be used in the future, maybe for future missions by NASA.
  • Roe v. Wade is overruled by the conservative-majority SCOTUS at some point in late 2022 at earliest after a few more red states try to ban abortion the same way Texas has. This means abortion is now a state-only affair at best and effectively means red states can ban and criminalise abortion as they please.
  • The 2022 midterms will see the Republicans retake the Congress by some margin due to the Biden administration not living up to its promise. However, the more progressive bloc of the Democrats would continue to slowly replace the moderate Democrats. This in turn would lead to any hopes of Biden's plans being dashed without having it compromised to some extent by both progressives (they are still lukewarm to watering down some bills but they don't trust him at that point) and the Republicans who have very different agendas from the moderate Democratic agenda.
  • The NFT and metaverse fad that is generated in 2021 dies down around this year. They still exist, but NFTs especially by that point would have been scrutinised heavily, but not limited to copyright infringement or environmental concerns (the environmental part is potentially solvable, but the former is more complicated).
  • The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan will be recognised by China (and at least ten to twenty countries, all of them being non-western countries) as a legitimate government of said country by the end of 2022.
  • A commercial version of DALL-E (that is better than what is available for free) is released by OpenAI, alongside 'GPT-4' (if it ever comes by). We may also see an improved version of Jukebox somewhere or an equivalent but at least 3x better.
  • Space civilian tourism takes off significantly, going from approximately 20 in 2021 to at least 60 by 2022 (this also includes Virgin Galactic's flights, where it technically doesn't reach the IAU's space boundary). Don't expect prices to be dropped to an affordable price this year.
  • The iPhone 14 and 14 Pro (but maybe not iPhone SE [3rd gen]) are announced to have USB-C ports instead of the Lightning port to comply with forthcoming EU regulations. Not only that, they also do the same internationally because it would be unwise for them to sell a local variant. The same goes to the iPad (10th generation). (I wish this happened)
  • Chuuk votes against independence from the Federated States of Micronesia in their independence referendum held this year.
  • And finally, (as we all want) Avatar 2 premieres in cinema on 16th December.
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Yuli Ban
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Re: 2022 predictions

Post by Yuli Ban »

urdestan wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:34 am Is it too early to start doing these predictions for next year? I missed these kinds of predictions in the old forums when I was a lurker, sadly many of the previous predictions kind got removed when the forums switched. Anyway, if anyone has thought of any predictions next year, be technology or politics, maybe even reserve your predictions until December, since I doubt that we’ll get anything by the end of October, feel free to put it down on this thread, I guess.

If anyone by the end of the year could at least have their 2021 predictions (that were posted on the old forums) reviewed somehow as well, that’ll be good enough.

Alternatively, someone would make a better thread than this one and this thread might be merged or sidestepped by it. Who knows.
The tradition was that we wait until late December just in case certain predictions come true before the year even starts, but there's no hard rule that you have to start then.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
GTrang
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Re: 2022 predictions

Post by GTrang »

Some ideas:
  • The 2022 Winter Olympics will be held in February.
  • The 2022 FIFA World Cup will be held from November to December.
  • iOS 16 and iPadOS 16 are expected to be announced and released.
  • On June 15, Windows 10 users will no longer be able to access Internet Explorer.
  • Google will discontinue support for the Google Toolbar.
  • Many Windows 10 computers will get a free upgrade to Windows 11.
  • Many new PCs will be shipped with Windows 11.
Nanotechandmorefuture
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Re: 2022 predictions

Post by Nanotechandmorefuture »

I have a few predictions. If this was a tradition then let me tell you its a great one since its nice to see when predictions come to pass.

For the USA my predictions are:
  • The introduction of digital identities. At first this will be just a few states but over time it will expand and cover many others. By the end of the year it will have set a trend that eventually makes it adopted easily in all states.
  • Robots will start their path to slowly becoming a normal sight in our society. Spot the robot dog will be employed in various industries while others like the Atlas robot are still being perfected. This will work towards the goal of replacing human police with robots as predicted on the Future Timeline.
I'll adjust more as time goes on and highlight my edits before 2022. This is a nice exercise to use for next year of course!
Lariliss
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Re: 2022 predictions

Post by Lariliss »

1. I would like to agree with @Nanotechandmorefuture for the ID’s. Actually they are already underway for the healthcare programs (anonymous or partially anonymous).
2. Supercomputers’ handling should make a leap. Their tasks are climate models calculations and predictions for the economy with human impact going to zero, but at the same time their consumption of energy is controversial, it needs to be optimized.
3. Local coverage for data service will be improved and we will get more data for Earth surveillance both from space and earth.
4. Space companies have the ability to do the technological tests and run enormous missions at the same time.
We are in the era when the finest cutting edge technology is mature enough to be bald with missions. Numerous tests, engineering refinements and tests again, all the precautions to eliminate any failure. The projects are confident enough to state the timelines and costs. There are too many uncertainties for the plans to be very precise. There is uncertainty on any new uncertainties to come across even. Hopefully big and smaller plans for 2022 will be achieved with no or minor deviations
5. Debates and news on robots, autonomous vehicles etcetera will remain as it is now.

The technology is on rail to go despite the hindrances. It is kind of a careful Occam's razor, and I believe it
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wjfox
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Re: 2022 predictions

Post by wjfox »

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Ozzie guy
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Re: 2022 predictions

Post by Ozzie guy »

I think I will be pissed off if Google pathways isn't released within one year of it being announced ( bit earlier than 3:30 am August 4th 2021 Melbourne Australia time) or Google pathways isn't proto AGI.

I'm kind of setting myself up for disappointment but yeah to be truly happy with 2022 I want proto AGI by August 4th 3:30am 2022.
Nero
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Re: 2022 predictions

Post by Nero »

I was looking for the 2021 prediction thread to see some of the posts and whether they had been updated to reflect the year's technological progress, has anyone from that board got an updated list of predictions?
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