Is technological progress slowing? Consider agriculture...

Talk about scientific and technological developments in the future
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funkervogt
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Is technological progress slowing? Consider agriculture...

Post by funkervogt »

But I think we have a few reasons to think agriculture is a bit unusual here. Agriculture, after all, is rural and innovations tend to disproportionately emerge in cities and diffuse slowly out. Moreover, it’s not like learning about an innovation instantly translates into productivity gains. Pardey and Alston (2021) argue one reason productivity gains in agriculture lag those in the non-farm economy is because it is also necessary for a process of economic reorganization to take place in order to reap the benefits of these new technologies. For example, if technology favors larger farms, there will be a protracted period of farm consolidation (which we have in fact observed). Of course, other sectors also need to reorganize to best take advantage of technologies that originate elsewhere, but agriculture may be particularly slow to undergo these painful transitions, given how intertwined it is with family, culture, and place.

If we buy this story, then it may be the slowdown in technological progress in American agriculture is actually just another way of looking at a broader slowdown in technological progress.
https://mattsclancy.substack.com/p/is-t ... ss-slowing
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caltrek
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Re: Is technological progress slowing? Consider agriculture...

Post by caltrek »

From the citation above:
Agriculture, after all, is rural and innovations tend to disproportionately emerge in cities and diffuse slowly out.
I am not sure I agree with that statement as it applies to agriculture. Sure, innovations in manufacturing may tend to disproportionately emerge in in cities for the simple reason that it is in cites were manufacturing tends to concentrate. Especially large scale manufacturing that makes heavy use of a division of labor. For the same reason, I think it is reasonable to argue that innovations in agriculture emerge in more rural areas because that is where agriculture is located. Of course, there is the added complication of research institutes, which might be more concentrated in urban areas. Still, if such institutes concentrate their research on agriculture, then is it really that difficult for innovations developed in such institutes to “diffuse slowly out”?

Earlier in the article, the author writes:
One major candidate for the explanation is the stagnation in agricultural R&D that has prevailed from roughly 1980 to 2007.
…a constant level of R&D effort tends to result in smaller and smaller gains in innovation. So if that’s true, the roughly stagnant R&D would be expected to result in a slower and slower rate of technological progress.
So, don’t we at least need to compare the R&D effort in other sectors with the R&D effort in agriculture?

I can believe that R&D in electronics and computers outpaced that of R&D in agriculture in relatively recent time frames.

The author maybe makes a stronger point when he writes:
As discussed at great length here, a constant level of R&D effort tends to result in smaller and smaller gains in innovation.
Others on this forum write of a “declining rate of profit.” I have resisted that notion because I think it ignores what neo-Marxists call the monopoly sector. That is, sectors dominated by a small number of corporations. Maybe “monopoly and oligopoly sectors” might be a more accurately descriptive term. Orthodox Marxists tend to describe a declining rate of profit where firms competing with each other drive down profits as rising capital and (perhaps) labor expenses tend to squeeze profits even as the marketplace keeps prices relatively low. Oligopolies tend to have a greater control over prices. Increased capital and labor costs can thus more easily be passed along to consumers.

Still, I can see where a declining yield from relatively stable levels of R&D can slow productivity growth. I suppose that can also have an effect on the rate of profit. Still, if a greater concentration of economic power results in fewer and fewer “capitalists,” then such capitalists might actually personally experience increasing profits in a growing economy. Moreover, if the economy does fail to grow or actually shrinks, then such powerful interests may be in a better position to defend their wealth at the expense of more vulnerable sectors of the population. When such trends result in increased resentment from such sectors, then a legitimacy crisis may emerge.
Don't mourn, organize.

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40lightyears
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Re: Is technological progress slowing? Consider agriculture...

Post by 40lightyears »

You've got a point about tech in farming. I saw this with my cousin's farm. They got all this fancy tech like drones and computerized feed systems, but it wasn't just plug-and-play. They had to figure out how to make it all work with the way they've been farming for years. It was a big change, especially for the older folks who were used to the old ways.

Adapting to new tech takes time in farming. It's not just about buying the latest gear. It's about learning to use agricultural equipment right and fitting it into your daily routine.
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