Overall, he thinks technology is advancing even slower than he predicted it would.
https://rodneybrooks.com/predictions-sc ... anuary-01/
Rodney Brooks updates his predictions from 2018
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funkervogt
- Posts: 1184
- Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm
Re: Rodney Brooks updates his predictions from 2018
Completely agree. I've noticed this even in the field of synthetic media that things weren't progressing as fast as expected— 2020 was supposed to be the year of novel neural video synthesis, and while there was a little bit of that with DVD-GANs, it STILL hasn't come to fruition two years on.
Outside of that, it seems to me that there's an obvious explanation: the chaos of the 2020s. The total disruption of COVID, the supply chain collapse as a result of that, the Ukraine war and the supply chain disruption that's coming as a result of THAT, and the death of Moore's Law despite attempts to keep it sputtering along all suggest that we've since reached the asymptote of the Third Industrial Revolution. The Fourth is absolutely getting started, there's no doubt about that, but just like how S-curves work, we're still VERY far from the knee of the curve in that regard.
The parts about autonomous cars have been clear to me for a while: we NEED artificial general intelligence, perhaps even just proto-AGI but still generalized AI in some form, for AVs to truly work as promised. And while I think proto-AGI is close, I'm increasingly convinced that it's more a case of low-hanging fruit, that proto-AGI is what we can achieve with our current paradigm as a sort of rough approximation of a cube drawn on a 2D plane rather than an actual physical cube or hypercube.
Outside of that, it seems to me that there's an obvious explanation: the chaos of the 2020s. The total disruption of COVID, the supply chain collapse as a result of that, the Ukraine war and the supply chain disruption that's coming as a result of THAT, and the death of Moore's Law despite attempts to keep it sputtering along all suggest that we've since reached the asymptote of the Third Industrial Revolution. The Fourth is absolutely getting started, there's no doubt about that, but just like how S-curves work, we're still VERY far from the knee of the curve in that regard.
The parts about autonomous cars have been clear to me for a while: we NEED artificial general intelligence, perhaps even just proto-AGI but still generalized AI in some form, for AVs to truly work as promised. And while I think proto-AGI is close, I'm increasingly convinced that it's more a case of low-hanging fruit, that proto-AGI is what we can achieve with our current paradigm as a sort of rough approximation of a cube drawn on a 2D plane rather than an actual physical cube or hypercube.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future