AGI will come, it will come soon, and people are going to die of cancer after it arrives. People are going to die in car crashes; people are going to get paper cuts and deal with slow internet speeds; people are going to get rejected and feel heartache and despondancy; people are going to get lost in the woods and get headaches and explosive diarrhea. All that fun stuff is going to keep happening after AGI comes. It's going to keep happening after ASI comes.
In fact, I predict that the rate of progress in sci-tech, especially artificial intelligence, is now so great and is going to accelerate so rapidly that there will soon be a wide point in time when the SOTA is literal artificial superintelligence but Average Joe still lives like it's the mid-2010s. It could last for years or, in the worst case scenario, decades. Imagine that: imagine living for decades in your current condition, all the while a literal Overmind exists somewhere on Earth, solving just about every scientific problem imaginable and even those that aren't imaginable, things you can't yet experience due to some unforeseen echo delay in technological spread.
I agree. The same day the creation of the first AGI is announced, the news will also carry stories about mass shootings, religious extremism, sex abuses, and rich people wasting money on obscene, trivial things while so many others needlessly suffer.
My own expectations about when AGI would arrive were probably shaped by sci-fi that I consumed as a child. In
Star Trek, humanity cleaned up its act, reached unparalleled heights of civilization, culture, and justice, and invented many radically advanced technologies like FTL space ships and phaser weapons before it had AGI. In reality, we're going to stumble into this WAY before we're ready, and AGI will be birthed into a world wracked by violence, stupidity, tribalism, scheming, and waste. This will be true even if AGI isn't invented until 2050.
