How are longevity predictions tracking?

Talk about scientific and technological developments in the future
User avatar
Bird
Posts: 27
Joined: Sun May 22, 2022 11:43 am

How are longevity predictions tracking?

Post by Bird »

Hi all. First time posting here, long time lurker (very long – 6+ years).

I have a few interests when it comes to speculating on the future, but none are as strong as science in the ageing field, and the possibilities of life extension and rejuvenation.

No hypothetical future technology interests me more than this. It would be a massively consequential thing not just for me personally, but for everyone who lived to see it. I mostly want to discuss the existing predictions on the main Future Timeline. I want to look at how accurate these predictions might be, specifically, not the multi-layered consequences of a society where ageing is cured (though that's also an interesting topic).
Relevant timeline excerpts below.

2065 - Longevity treatments able to halt aging
By the year 2065, “Various combinations of treatments are now available that can essentially halt the aging process, at a cost low enough for the average person. This is changing society and culture in profound ways.

The same prediction says that by the 2040s, various medical technologies will “allow some celebrities and other high-income individuals to remain in a relatively young and biologically healthy state.”

And another prediction:
2160 - The world's first bicentenarians
Certain people who were born in the 1960s are still alive and well in today's world.”
In the present day (2022), these people would already be between 52 and 62 years old.
…………

So, how are we tracking? My impression is that these past 3 or so years have seen some very promising developments.

As a secondary question – who are these hypothetical bicentenarians mentioned? Both of my parents were born in the 60s, but I’m guessing they’ll miss out unless they live to well over 90 naturally. For the first 200-year-olds, are we looking at someone like Jeff Bezos (ugh…) – born in 1964, age 75 - 85 during the 2040s, and with enough money to afford expensive treatments the moment they're available?

I will admit I personally find it a little hard to believe that people in their 60s now could live centuries. A lot of predictions I see by field experts just seem… a little wild.

I have seen some people express concern that the rich will somehow hoard longevity tech and it will never reach the rest of us. I wouldn’t say that’s the least bit logical, although it makes a neat concept for a dystopian novel or TV show. I do agree with the timeline’s broad prediction though – the rich will get it before the rest of us.

I think the key is not to go too hard on the copium with these things. I want to be realistic. Will my parents (in their 50s) see longevity treatments? Will I (Born in the 90s) see it? Will a baby born in 2022 see it?

How well are we tracking for the prediction of, “rich people can do this in 20-something years, normal people can in a little over 40”?

Too optimistic? Not optimistic enough? Right on track?

I’d definitely like to hear from wjfox, but anyone with relevant knowledge feel free to weigh in.
I'm just a bird who escapes his cage to post here sometimes.
Tadasuke
Posts: 510
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:15 pm
Location: Europe

Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?

Post by Tadasuke »

I think that someone born in 2022 is 99% guaranteed to see longevity treatments unless they die as children for some awful reason.

People born in the 1990s, have probably about 70% chance to see longevity treatments.

People born the 1960s, have possibly about 35% chance to see serious longevity treatments.

The chance is sharply dropping going further than the 1960s.

I think we are on-track for some serious longevity treatments in the 2040s or 2050s. I myself feel confident that I can make it that far and probably later see the 22nd century. My advice is to not get fat, do not smoke and do not drink too much alcohol. I don't see fat people, heavy smokers or heavy drinkers living to their 80s (with some exceptions). Eat vegetables. Do not sit all day.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
User avatar
Bird
Posts: 27
Joined: Sun May 22, 2022 11:43 am

Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?

Post by Bird »

Thanks for your input.
Sounds like my chances look pretty good, then. I do need to sit a lot less...
For me, it would be amazing to:
1 - Live all the way to 100.
2 - Shortly after that, live to see January 1st, 2100 - for better or worse, I'd have been alive for all of the 21st century.
3 - Remain useful and productive well into old age - whatever that ends up meaning during the late 21st century.

I try to remain cautious with my optimism, but this specific area looks good.
I'm just a bird who escapes his cage to post here sometimes.
User avatar
Water
Posts: 17
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:55 pm

Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?

Post by Water »

Tadasuke wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 9:59 amdo not drink too much alcohol.
Crap.
I still think the microwave is the most sci fi invention so far.
User avatar
BaobabScion
Posts: 102
Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:41 pm

Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?

Post by BaobabScion »

Matt wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 1:52 pm Thanks for your input.
Sounds like my chances look pretty good, then. I do need to sit a lot less...
For me, it would be amazing to:
1 - Live all the way to 100.
2 - Shortly after that, live to see January 1st, 2100 - for better or worse, I'd have been alive for all of the 21st century.
3 - Remain useful and productive well into old age - whatever that ends up meaning during the late 21st century.

I try to remain cautious with my optimism, but this specific area looks good.
It seems like you've developed a light-hearted yet balanced outlook on your health and life. Congratulations because that tends to be the hardest part for most people.

I could give supplementational advice if you're interested, but for now, just try your best to adhere to the following:
  • Eat lots of vegetables. Strive for a variety of colors but prioritize dark green.
  • Limit red meat intake. Honestly, you should try to limit all meat intake, but red meat is the worst offender when it comes to cardiovascular degeneration, inflammation and carcinogenic capacity.
  • Walk often, sit rarely.
  • Weight-train almost as often as you walk, and continue weight-training for the entirety of your life. When done intelligently, of course, this will help build the bodily constitution necessary for you to continue to provide and care for yourself well into old age.
  • Clean your teeth constantly. Not only does a dirty mouth lead to dirty breath, but it also has a negative effect on the cardiorespiratory system and can spiral into debilitating pain if allowed to worsen.
  • Use sunscreen, even if you're of a darker complexion. This will help to minimize cellular damage from UV-rays, which in turn will help to reduce wrinklage.
  • Build mental fortitude. A will to live is necessary to keep living. It sounds like a platitude, but it's one of the deepest truths out there. A strong
    mind - and by "strong", I am not referring to intelligence - is superior to a weak yet unstressed mind because the strong mind can keep going when the weak mind would simply fall apart.
Tadasuke
Posts: 510
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:15 pm
Location: Europe

Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?

Post by Tadasuke »

Personally I don't have much will to live, because life is so hard, unpleasant and unsatisfactory. I don't think it will change in the near future. I just don't enjoy life, I hate every day.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
unnaturalmilk
Posts: 8
Joined: Mon May 30, 2022 8:11 pm

Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?

Post by unnaturalmilk »

BaobabScion wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 7:13 pm
Matt wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 1:52 pm Thanks for your input.
Sounds like my chances look pretty good, then. I do need to sit a lot less...
For me, it would be amazing to:
1 - Live all the way to 100.
2 - Shortly after that, live to see January 1st, 2100 - for better or worse, I'd have been alive for all of the 21st century.
3 - Remain useful and productive well into old age - whatever that ends up meaning during the late 21st century.

I try to remain cautious with my optimism, but this specific area looks good.
It seems like you've developed a light-hearted yet balanced outlook on your health and life. Congratulations because that tends to be the hardest part for most people.

I could give supplementational advice if you're interested, but for now, just try your best to adhere to the following:
  • Eat lots of vegetables. Strive for a variety of colors but prioritize dark green.
  • Limit red meat intake. Honestly, you should try to limit all meat intake, but red meat is the worst offender when it comes to cardiovascular degeneration, inflammation and carcinogenic capacity.
  • Walk often, sit rarely.
  • Weight-train almost as often as you walk, and continue weight-training for the entirety of your life. When done intelligently, of course, this will help build the bodily constitution necessary for you to continue to provide and care for yourself well into old age.
  • Clean your teeth constantly. Not only does a dirty mouth lead to dirty breath, but it also has a negative effect on the cardiorespiratory system and can spiral into debilitating pain if allowed to worsen.
  • Use sunscreen, even if you're of a darker complexion. This will help to minimize cellular damage from UV-rays, which in turn will help to reduce wrinklage.
  • Build mental fortitude. A will to live is necessary to keep living. It sounds like a platitude, but it's one of the deepest truths out there. A strong
    mind - and by "strong", I am not referring to intelligence - is superior to a weak yet unstressed mind because the strong mind can keep going when the weak mind would simply fall apart.
Those are great suggestions, but is it too late for me? I'm only 16 but I've eaten red meat my whole life (On an almost daily basis), I'm afraid that this will mean that I will live way less in the future
User avatar
BaobabScion
Posts: 102
Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:41 pm

Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?

Post by BaobabScion »

unnaturalmilk wrote: Mon May 30, 2022 8:15 pm
BaobabScion wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 7:13 pm
Matt wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 1:52 pm Thanks for your input.
Sounds like my chances look pretty good, then. I do need to sit a lot less...
For me, it would be amazing to:
1 - Live all the way to 100.
2 - Shortly after that, live to see January 1st, 2100 - for better or worse, I'd have been alive for all of the 21st century.
3 - Remain useful and productive well into old age - whatever that ends up meaning during the late 21st century.

I try to remain cautious with my optimism, but this specific area looks good.
It seems like you've developed a light-hearted yet balanced outlook on your health and life. Congratulations because that tends to be the hardest part for most people.

I could give supplementational advice if you're interested, but for now, just try your best to adhere to the following:
  • Eat lots of vegetables. Strive for a variety of colors but prioritize dark green.
  • Limit red meat intake. Honestly, you should try to limit all meat intake, but red meat is the worst offender when it comes to cardiovascular degeneration, inflammation and carcinogenic capacity.
  • Walk often, sit rarely.
  • Weight-train almost as often as you walk, and continue weight-training for the entirety of your life. When done intelligently, of course, this will help build the bodily constitution necessary for you to continue to provide and care for yourself well into old age.
  • Clean your teeth constantly. Not only does a dirty mouth lead to dirty breath, but it also has a negative effect on the cardiorespiratory system and can spiral into debilitating pain if allowed to worsen.
  • Use sunscreen, even if you're of a darker complexion. This will help to minimize cellular damage from UV-rays, which in turn will help to reduce wrinklage.
  • Build mental fortitude. A will to live is necessary to keep living. It sounds like a platitude, but it's one of the deepest truths out there. A strong
    mind - and by "strong", I am not referring to intelligence - is superior to a weak yet unstressed mind because the strong mind can keep going when the weak mind would simply fall apart.
Those are great suggestions, but is it too late for me? I'm only 16 but I've eaten red meat my whole life (On an almost daily basis), I'm afraid that this will mean that I will live way less in the future
It's not too late. The earlier you make the change, the better.
User avatar
Bird
Posts: 27
Joined: Sun May 22, 2022 11:43 am

Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?

Post by Bird »

Lol. I for one definitely need to take some of the health suggestions into account. Eating less meat in particular.

If you're 16 now, I think you'll be alright haha. Definitely, definitely not too late. If you were 50 or 60 with that lifestyle, you'd probably have some damage, but 16 is so young you really should be fine.
I'm just a bird who escapes his cage to post here sometimes.
unnaturalmilk
Posts: 8
Joined: Mon May 30, 2022 8:11 pm

Re: How are longevity predictions tracking?

Post by unnaturalmilk »

Matt wrote: Tue May 31, 2022 5:04 am Lol. I for one definitely need to take some of the health suggestions into account. Eating less meat in particular.

If you're 16 now, I think you'll be alright haha. Definitely, definitely not too late. If you were 50 or 60 with that lifestyle, you'd probably have some damage, but 16 is so young you really should be fine.
True, we still have time
Post Reply