Your 2023 predictions

Talk about scientific and technological developments in the future
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wjfox
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Re: Your 2023 predictions

Post by wjfox »

BaobabScion wrote: Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:05 am
  • Lake Mead will reach "dead-pool" status as its water level descends below 842 feet. (Dead pool status is marked if the reservoir goes below 895 feet.)

Unlikely just yet, based on this trend. Although I'm sure the exceptional drought conditions will continue.

Agreed about the shift away from La Nina.

Environmental activists will step up their actions for sure (see e.g. Just Stop Oil).

And yes, Kanye West is so batsh*t, I wouldn't be surprised if we read his obituary this year.

I doubt Israel would cause a "mass conflagration", although they may attempt some sort of sabotage.

I'm glad you mentioned Armenia, because I'm following a woman on Instagram who lives there. The current conflict seems underreported, and likely to escalate significantly this year or next.

The class action lawsuit against AI art is an interesting one. One of my own colleagues who's a graphic artist is quite angry about this tech, and I know another on Twitter who's incensed.

And yes, let's hope the mysterious bot creator is unmasked. I think I know who it might be, but I'd rather not say.
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BaobabScion
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Re: Your 2023 predictions

Post by BaobabScion »

Unlikely just yet, based on this trend. Although I'm sure the exceptional drought conditions will continue.
The rate of water loss has actually been increasing in recent years, so I wouldn't put too much faith in the shape of that graph being maintained.
Environmental activists will step up their actions for sure (see e.g. Just Stop Oil).

I'm not just referring to environmental activism. I use the words "ecofascism" and " accelerationism" for a reason. 'Just Stop Oil' and Extinction Rebellion are not the people I'm concerned about.
I doubt Israel would cause a "mass conflagration", although they may attempt some sort of sabotage.
That they haven't already (or at least not in recent history) is a miracle. They take any opportunity presented to them to instigate conflicts or overstep their bounds with regards to neighboring states, knowing full well that they'll be re-equipped and protected by Big Bro' USA. Whenever their behavior is questioned - whether through a UN council REQUEST FOR ICJ OPINION (not even a proclamation, just a request for the possible answering of a question) or by a human rights organization's statement of concern - they'll complain in the rudest, most disrespectful manner and cry antisemitism.
One of my own colleagues who's a graphic artist is quite angry about this tech, and I know another on Twitter who's incensed.
As they should be. The people releasing these models, especially the people who released SD at Stability AI and the people who collaborate with them at DeviantArt, are feckless, shameless, and have no respect for the efforts and livelihoods of artists.

Also, as a general rule, I think we should refrain from commenting on or attempting refutations of predictions on the same day that they're posted, especially if that sort of refutation hasn't been applied to any of the other sets of predictions on the thread. It muddies the water and comes off as dismissive. Allow for the year to unfold, and let the Future discredit what people have said. It obviously knows more than any of us.
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lechwall
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Re: Your 2023 predictions

Post by lechwall »

My 5 predictions (and one bonus one):

1. A negotiated end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict is reached by the end of the year, Crimea is formally recognised in the treaty as sovereign russian territory which allows Putin to claim some kind of victory in the conflict and saves his head. Russia is so badly damaged by the invasion however that any dreams of territorial expansion are over for at least a generation. The west provides a new Marshall Plan to help rebuild Ukraine following the end of the war

2. 2023 is a relatively calm year for UK politics. There's a general consensus in the conservative party that stability is needed if they're to avoid a cataclysmic election defeat and as a result the UK ends the year with the same prime minister who started it. Feeling the next general election likely to be in 2024 is there's to lose the Labour party play it extremely cautiously and as a result 2023 is very boring (relatively speaking politically)

3. No significant new Covid variants come out of China's reopening and as a result the pandemic is considered to be truly over globally by the end of the year

4. A new pope is elected. With Pope Benedict's passing the possibility of there being 3 popes alive in Rome at the same time something unprecedented in Catholicism has gone. With this Pope Francis feels able to step down as head of the catholic church due to his declining health

5. GPT 4 is released and a modified version of this is able to pass the Turing test by the end of the year people argue about how significant an achievement this is and while its clear it isn't true AGI most people under 40 now expect to see an AGI be created in their lifetime and calls for significant regulation of the field by governments become deafening. Ray Kurzweil celebrates by drinking a protein shake with 100 different pills ground into it

6. My child is born and I end the year extremely stressed and sleep deprived but very happy 8-)
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Yuli Ban
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Re: Your 2023 predictions

Post by Yuli Ban »

BingGPT is happening
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
Vakanai
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Re: Your 2023 predictions

Post by Vakanai »

Yuli Ban wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:14 pm BingGPT is happening
Hmmm...I'm very tempted to make a 2023 prediction that for the first time the most common search query on Bing might not be "google". :lol:
Doozer
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Re: Your 2023 predictions

Post by Doozer »

1. Disney’s stock will continue to decline.
2. The Mullah regime in Iran will fall.
3. Pope Francis will abdicate.
4. People in Russia will start turning on Putin and the country will see protests like in Iran last year.
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funkervogt
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Re: Your 2023 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

funkervogt wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 4:15 pm The Ukraine War will reach a climax in 2023. That means, by the end of the year, one side will have won, or the conflict will have significantly died down, with both sides (perhaps tacitly) recognizing that the battle lines were unlikely to change much from 2024 onward. I predict this because the economic, military, human, and political costs of the war to both sides leave it unlikely that either will want to continue at the current level of intensity for more than another year.

GPT-4 will be released. Though significantly better than GPT-3, it will fall short of many nerds' high hopes.

The U.S. will enter a recession.

China's abandonment of its failed "Zero COVID" public health strategy leads to a major surge in deaths across the country.
Sam Altman is backing my first prediction.
The GPT4 rumor mill is like a ridiculous thing I don't know where it all comes from. I don't know why people don't have like better things to speculate on. I get a little bit of it like it's sort of fun but that it's been going for like six months at this volume. People are begging to be disappointed and they will be. The hype is just like... we don't have an actual AGI and I think that's sort of what is expected of us and yeah we're going to disappoint those people.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PTzsEQX ... -ai-safety
Nanotechandmorefuture
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Re: Your 2023 predictions

Post by Nanotechandmorefuture »

Sam Altman
Sam Altman is a puppet knowingly or unknowingly. I'm surprised he hasn't lashed out seeing how all this tech for the public has taken a very weird turn recently in just a few years or so.
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peekpok
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Re: Your 2023 predictions

Post by peekpok »

This seems like fun. I don't have a whole lot of predictions but I do have at least a few.
  • Google finally starts to sell public access to an image generation service based on Imagen. It will be as censored as DALL-E, if not moreso, but most likely it will be the best general image generator at the time of release.
  • New versions of Stable Diffusion, Midjourney and DALL-E are released.
  • At least one previously new company will get into the image generation game with a model that is comparable to the state of the art. Possibly one of the major tech companies like Amazon or Meta, but could also be a VC-funded startup.
  • Waymo begins operating in another new city.
  • A major protest movement flares up in one of the post-soviet republics still within Russia's sphere of influence.
  • NASA concludes its preliminary UAP investigation by saying that it sees 'no evidence' of extra terrestrial activity associated with UAP, but highlights a difficulty in explaining certain reports, and proposes a project to collect data on a larger scale.
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funkervogt
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Re: Your 2023 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

funkervogt wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 4:15 pm The Ukraine War will reach a climax in 2023. That means, by the end of the year, one side will have won, or the conflict will have significantly died down, with both sides (perhaps tacitly) recognizing that the battle lines were unlikely to change much from 2024 onward. I predict this because the economic, military, human, and political costs of the war to both sides leave it unlikely that either will want to continue at the current level of intensity for more than another year.

GPT-4 will be released. Though significantly better than GPT-3, it will fall short of many nerds' high hopes.

The U.S. will enter a recession.

China's abandonment of its failed "Zero COVID" public health strategy leads to a major surge in deaths across the country.
Here's my assessment of my 2023 predictions:

1) The big Russian attacks of early 2023 accomplished basically nothing, the big Ukrainian summer counteroffensive has failed, and the front lines changed little overall this year. I think we'll look back on 2023 as the climax of the war, and I think both sides are tacitly coming to grips with the fact that total victory is unlikely in 2024 and beyond, even if their official line is still one of optimism and enthusiasm.

2) I was right about GPT-4. In the lead-up to its release, some people were predicting it would be an AGI. That proved wrong, as I suspected, but it was a big improvement over GPT-3.

3) I was wrong about the recession, but so were most economists and CEOs. After trying my hand at predicting the future of the economy over the last year or two, I'm quitting. It's too hard, there are too many variables to consider, and it's nearly impossible to distinguish between good and bad information.

4) I was right. China suffered 1.4 - 2 million excess deaths in early 2023 after ending its COVID-19 restrictions.
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