Extremely likely in fact I would say.
Your 2024 Predictions thread
Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread
Assuming 4.5 has near perfect coherence and near human level basic mathematical abilities, an SNES game is usually not more than a few dozen thousand lines of code. The hard part is data assets.Dr. Casey wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 3:25 amHoly shit. That would be phenomenal. Are you assuming simpler genres like sidescrollers, or games as complex as RPGs? There's obviously a difference between Contra III and Super Mario RPG, but honestly even making something on par with a 1991 SNES sidescroller would be mind-blowing.AI in video game creation becomes tangibly feasible, with GPT-4.5 capable of creating SNES-quality games
But a 128k context window, assuming that translates to about 80,000 lines of code, would be enough to program Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past, which is also ~80k lines of code. If you have all the sprites and audio ready to load in, this theoretical 4.5, if it had an output context window of 16k, could recreate the game in under half an hour.
Theoretically, 4-Turbo could too, but its logical deficiencies are too great.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread
2024 will be a big year for AI governance as startups try to offer solutions that help companies stay in compliance with AI regulations.
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread
Damn. That's insane. And I guess GPT-5 could make the data assets as well.Yuli Ban wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:39 pmAssuming 4.5 has near perfect coherence and near human level basic mathematical abilities, an SNES game is usually not more than a few dozen thousand lines of code. The hard part is data assets.Dr. Casey wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 3:25 amHoly shit. That would be phenomenal. Are you assuming simpler genres like sidescrollers, or games as complex as RPGs? There's obviously a difference between Contra III and Super Mario RPG, but honestly even making something on par with a 1991 SNES sidescroller would be mind-blowing.AI in video game creation becomes tangibly feasible, with GPT-4.5 capable of creating SNES-quality games
But a 128k context window, assuming that translates to about 80,000 lines of code, would be enough to program Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past, which is also ~80k lines of code. If you have all the sprites and audio ready to load in, this theoretical 4.5, if it had an output context window of 16k, could recreate the game in under half an hour.
Theoretically, 4-Turbo could too, but its logical deficiencies are too great.
Is there a difference between improvements in coherence, and hallucination reduction? It sounds like they're related to each other, but I'm guessing they're not the same thing since you listed them separate in your original post?
Honestly, if 4.5 turns out to be as good as you say - almost perfect coherence, drastic reduction in hallucinations, capable of creating SNES-level games, good at basic math, competent at almost any intellectual task - I'll consider 4.5 to be the world's first (limited) AGI. The limitations being those imposed by context windows, as well as being unable to do certain things if it's not fully multi-modal. In terms of output it would be around the competency level and reliability of a person at most tasks. There's no universal consensus on what constitutes AGI (and Proto-AGI has even less of one), but 4.5 sounds like it might reach the "Does it really matter that much anymore? The weaknesses are disappearing and the capabilities are insane" level.
Re: Your 2024 Predictions thread
Updated my predictions to add a single extra point...
Edit: updated to also change my feelings on GPT-5.
Edit: updated to also change my feelings on GPT-5.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future