The Singularity - Official Thread

Talk about scientific and technological developments in the future
User avatar
Ozzie guy
Posts: 486
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:40 pm

Re: The Singularity - Official Thread

Post by Ozzie guy »

Kartik Gada has updated his singularity predictions for 2022. He thinks the singularity will occur 2064 plus or minus 7 years.

Right now about 3% of the economy is "High Tech" which he defines as getting better or cheaper by at least 10% a year (probably a combination of the two also counts). He views the singularity as the point when at least half the economy is high Tech. The % of the economy that is high Tech grows by about 7% a year.

What are your thoughts on his predictions?


https://youtube.com/channel/UCuRX67CJhaOT98Jdjh85CEQ
User avatar
funkervogt
Posts: 1171
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm

Re: The Singularity - Official Thread

Post by funkervogt »

Ozzie guy wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 3:31 am Kartik Gada has updated his singularity predictions for 2022. He thinks the singularity will occur 2064 plus or minus 7 years.

Right now about 3% of the economy is "High Tech" which he defines as getting better or cheaper by at least 10% a year (probably a combination of the two also counts). He views the singularity as the point when at least half the economy is high Tech. The % of the economy that is high Tech grows by about 7% a year.

What are your thoughts on his predictions?


https://youtube.com/channel/UCuRX67CJhaOT98Jdjh85CEQ
My thoughts:

Who is Kartik Gada?

One problem with the "singularity" movement is the multitude of different definitions of the term. Gada's definition of it is new, and uninspiring.

I don't believe the singularity will happen, but the world could be radically different in 2064 thanks to new technologies.
User avatar
Ozzie guy
Posts: 486
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:40 pm

Re: The Singularity - Official Thread

Post by Ozzie guy »

My thoughts:

Who is Kartik Gada?

One problem with the "singularity" movement is the multitude of different definitions of the term. Gada's definition of it is new, and uninspiring.

I don't believe the singularity will happen, but the world could be radically different in 2064 thanks to new technologies.
No one special I suppose.

We have a small community and he is one of the content creators and some users here already know him His an economist with unique views and he backs up his predictions with economic data. He kind of appeals to the idea of being sensible and rational but I think a blind spot of his is that he thinks anti ageing won't be solved yet a singularity will still occur.
User avatar
Yuli Ban
Posts: 4631
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:44 pm

Re: The Singularity - Official Thread

Post by Yuli Ban »

Image
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
toromash
Posts: 7
Joined: Sun Nov 14, 2021 5:22 pm

Re: The Singularity - Official Thread

Post by toromash »

Something he doesn't consider and that applies to all who think about singularity is that humanity will likely block further advancements in AI, so the singularity won't occur. This will probably happen after the invention of AGI.
Tadasuke
Posts: 510
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:15 pm
Location: Europe

Re: The Singularity - Official Thread

Post by Tadasuke »

I find it possible that the Singularity will happen in 2075, mostly thanks to AGI. I'm generally optimistic over the the future. But always remember that there is no 100% chance that past trends will continue to the future. So the doubling of the % of the global economy that is high-tech doesn't necessarily have to always take exactly the same time. It may take longer or shorter time. Like for example computer performance used to double less often, then more often and now again less often. I also found that things usually take 3x longer than radical optimists say. I think that the technology that is the most likely to change everything is AGI, but more narrow AIs (not necessarily very narrow, can be semi-general) can also have a huge, exponential impact, that they are already starting to have.

Steam power, then oil and electricity had an exponential impact on the world economy. In XXI century it will be energy storage and AI (both narrow and general). I think to really change the world a lot we need to have robots that are able to maneuver in lots of places and do all kinds of tasks. Not just AIs in computers, but they are still better than nothing. AI can certainly a very significant impact sitting inside computers, but the outside world won't change that much without giving AIs physical bodies. I hope in the future people will have completely different standards, because of robots doing things all the time very cheaply with renewable and fusion power. Like: if a computer inside a "smart" fridge or "smart" washing machine improves by 25% every year, then I guess it's high-tech. But a 1000x faster fridge won't make your life significantly better. You will be able to ... play Crysis on it, if that fascinates you. So I think for the proper Singularity we need stuff like: radical life extension and expansion, AGI, androids and nanobots. Otherwise I wouldn't call it the Singularity, but just a gradual progress.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
Tadasuke
Posts: 510
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:15 pm
Location: Europe

Re: The Singularity - Official Thread

Post by Tadasuke »

Overall, I think we are at a very very early stage as a civilization and species. We aren't advanced at all. We have done only a tiny tiny bit of what is to be done. And before the 19th century we haven't done almost anything at all. We have barely began. That's why it baffles me when someone brings up collapse, because we are starting, not ending.

We have yet to transcend our primitive, animalistic, bad nature. We have yet to improve ourselves on a basic level. We have yet to colonize entire Earth, let alone the Galaxy. For example Antarctica is still left to be used by us. We have yet build a single space elevator or a single arcology. We have yet to walk on the closest planet in the entire Universe.

Singularity or not, we are only starting and progress is exponential. But exponential can also mean +4% GDP per capita, +5% world GDP and 30% faster computers every year. This is what can be happening, with some problems in between. Certainly high-tech will encompass a greater and greater part of global economy. Automation is already growing exponentially.

There is a lot, a lot of bad stuff in the world. Most of it is bad. But we are making progress nonetheless. I can see it, when I look past the negative stuff. I would like the progress to be faster, but it's still relatively fast compared to the 18th century for example. So it helps to be positive, because it's very easy to be trapped in negativity. We will gradually get out from the current misery.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
User avatar
Yuli Ban
Posts: 4631
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:44 pm

Re: The Singularity - Official Thread

Post by Yuli Ban »

Image

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
User avatar
Yuli Ban
Posts: 4631
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:44 pm

Re: The Singularity - Official Thread

Post by Yuli Ban »

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
firestar464
Posts: 672
Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:45 am

Re: The Singularity - Official Thread

Post by firestar464 »

In this prediction (https://www.futuretimeline.net/the-far- ... superhuman), humans gain insurmountable sight powers. As such, would privacy exist anymore?
Post Reply