The Singularity - Official Thread

[Tadasuke]

very likely to become true

[raklian]

very likely to become true

Yeah, 6 years is a very, very long time in AI development.

[wjfox]

[raklian]

[Tadasuke]

Changes I would consider as true improvements would be:
⩥ ending obesity everywhere once and for all
⩥ significantly reducing all kinds of illnesses people experience (healthcare instead of sickcare)
⩥ prolonging healthy lifespans of humans and their pets
⩥ bettering each person chances of achieving what they truly want
⩥ cheap accessible AI assistant that is very, very helpful in many ways and doesn't make mistakes
⩥ improving peoples outer appearance without make-up or photoshopping
⩥ making everyone own decent housing (I don't mean huge mansions)
⩥ everyone having access to healthy and tasty food and drinks
⩥ less war and conflict
⩥ significantly reducing pollution all over the world
⩥ making world web wide and virtual spaces less toxic with less fake news and myths

[wjfox]

[Karl Rock]

I don't know if i am bit narrow minded, but it is hard for me to picture such exponential progress. You see, it is easy to see the numbers growing exponentially, in terms of numbers, in terms of processing power and so, but i can't see this translating into tangible changes in our daily life. What is he seeing ? You will ask a computer for "make a spaceship", give it robot arms and it will build it ? For you to innovate intelligence is not enough. You also need knowledge that you get by experimenting, and experiments take time and resources, that you cant increase exponentially.

You see, progress in microprocessors has been exponential for the past 50 years, but this don't mean all technological progress was exponential, of course the progress in microprocessors spinned off to other fields, but those other sectors didnt progress exponentially because of the spin offs.

[wjfox]

Interesting new study.

I don't agree with 2024 for AGI, but the general acceleration in AI should be obvious by now.

[Ken_J]

I don't know if i am bit narrow minded, but it is hard for me to picture such exponential progress. You see, it is easy to see the numbers growing exponentially, in terms of numbers, in terms of processing power and so, but i can't see this translating into tangible changes in our daily life. What is he seeing ? You will ask a computer for "make a spaceship", give it robot arms and it will build it ? For you to innovate intelligence is not enough. You also need knowledge that you get by experimenting, and experiments take time and resources, that you cant increase exponentially.

You see, progress in microprocessors has been exponential for the past 50 years, but this don't mean all technological progress was exponential, of course the progress in microprocessors spinned off to other fields, but those other sectors didnt progress exponentially because of the spin offs.

the increase in processing power allow greater ability to simulate scenarios, to weed out non productive experimental paths. saving resources in the millions and time in the decades, for the result of far more rapid advancement of many fields of practical change in life, as well as allowing the freed time and resources to be directed toward other routes that have likewise been weeded to eliminate wasted time and resources.

this means instead one advancement in a decade for 10 millions of dollars, you can develop 10 big advances in a year for 1 million dollars each.

the micro processors progress in the last 50 years did mean all the other sectors did too, they just weren't all picked up at the same point, and they are at different points on their own curves. 40 years ago computer processors couldn't offer much help to genetics past data sorting and maths aiding. now the advances of processing allow rapid simulation of certain genes over years and generations. likewise the genetic and electronics and mechanics are at different ages in their own curves, but their curve are now hitched to the information/communications curve, riding along with it as it's greater abilities with time install greater abilities to advance each of the others.

we live in a world where, rapid prototyping made possible by CAD and Slicing software development and materials and mechanical advances aided by computation lead to addative manufacturing reaching commercial viability and even enables engineering previously impossible things for better aerospace designs. It's changed consumer level things as well, both from the product maufacture end and the number of and access to technologies for small businesses and individuals to design and make things previously only possible through big industrial manufacturing.

You now has access to information that was something that people devoted lifetime careers to uncovering, now you can get in less than a second on a device in your pocket. For hundreds of thousands of topics that can benefit you ability to produce things of value to millions of peopl at a fraction of the price it cost previous generations.

That's now. What will the next ten years look like, as simulation, calculation data sorting and analysis can be done faster and cheaper by AI to eliminate the least valuble paths of exploration and even come up with new concept to try and test. Structural engineering, designs that increase eficiency and safety while decreasing cost and opening up whole sectors of design, production and development outside of the industrial and manufacturing spheres to smaller businesses and creators.

the whole thing changes when things like treatments for malaria are reduced to data, the drugs formula to data an production and distribution become data. Suddenly you have things like genetically engineered yeast secreting chemicals that when run through a mixilogical pharma grade desktop manufacturing facility in Guana and sounth africa and UAE facilities to produce drugs in quantities to eliminate malaria in the Sudan, shipped in drone drops to medical field operatives....
It changes the whole world. Saving millions of lives, allowiing those who would have previously died young to grow to adulthood and change the world farther with free internet access to free educational resources from around the world, collaborating with and aiding others like themselves in other places to change our fates.

Because in the end everything that humans have done in the history of human cultures is reducible to data and communication, and with the tools to work in those areas we can achieve amazing things... or horrific monsterous things.

Because the real limits on how far and how fast we go is what we allow ourselves and each other to do and our own cultural and socio-psycological progress.

[Tadasuke]

I will know that Technological Singularity is near, when 2 years after you read or hear that some super awesome technology is going to be available, it is really going to be available, with no buts and it is really going to change our lives in a significant way. Otherwise, it isn't near.