Your 2025 Predictions

[Yuli Ban]

So 2024 was a hit or miss year. What will 2025 bring, I wonder?

2015 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20200811184 ... edictions/

2016 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20210420125 ... edictions/

2017 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20200810185 ... edictions/

2018 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20201126041 ... edictions/

2019 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20201112012 ... edictions/

2020 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20210415161 ... edictions/

2021 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20210420074 ... edictions/

2022 Predictions
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2113

2023 Predictions
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2693

2024 Predictions
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=3159

[Yuli Ban]

Out of every “Your 20XX Predictions” thread since 2015, this will likely be the most intense and important


2025-2050

• Technological unemployment is rising rapidly 

2025-2035

• All television is becoming Internet-based 
• Mouse revival from cryopreservation

2025-2030

• Many cities are banning fossil fuel-powered vehicles 
• Human brain-scale simulations are becoming possible

2025-2028

• Contact with the Voyager probes is lost 
• Kivalina is being inundated 
• Sample return mission to Kamo'oalewa
• First crewed flight of NASA's Orion spacecraft 
• BepiColombo arrives in orbit around Mercury 
• Direct flights from Sydney to London and New York

My Predictions:

• A definitive “proto-AGI” system is unveiled to the public and will likely be described as having been developed since at least late 2023. In no unclear terms, it is a true and genuine advancement, and cannot be reduced to “predictive text algorithm” or “glorified chatbot.” This will likely sound the alarm for wider society that we are closer to AGI than previously believed
• GPT-5 released. Represents a significant leap forward compared to GPT-4 and GPT-4.5 in every metric. Context window ranges from a “low-cost” 512k tokens to more useful range of up to 2 million tokens. Output tokens can reach up to 32k, making it feasible to output entire novellas in one pass. It shows an incredible leap forward in terms of reducing hallucinations, increasing reasoning and coherency, and mathematical capability, with Chain of Thought built into the model. Likely, it will come with a multimodal release natively (text, image, voice/audio), but some more compute-intensive modalities will not be available early on (such as video and 3D modeling). Common failure points prove harder to find, but it can still prove to hallucinate on some level, and on rare occasions, the chain of thought function can “overthink” and radically reduce coherence and accuracy as a result. Likewise, RLHF also causes the model to be limited in output: some restrictions are laxed, and the base model can now reach PG-13 levels before content restrictions kick in, with OpenAI still “piloting” R-rated outputs. However, due to the sheer capability of GPT-5, there will be moments of stealth updates that cause overzealous censorship, especially early on. 
• GPT-5 is the first model to come natively with an agent workflow, allowing a user to deploy an agent to autonomously complete tasks on their desktop or internet, if given permission. This use is costly, and agent swarms are not immediately available. 
• GPT-4.5 and GPT-5-class models also begin deploying en-masse, formally replacing the GPT-4 class and entirely rendering the GPT-3.5 class obsolete. Anthropic’s Claude 4 may be the first to release at this level, followed by Gemini 2, though either may release before the other
• At least one Chinese AI company, likely Baidu, releases a GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 class model as well
• The most advanced AI systems allow individuals to operate business-esque operations without the need for human employees, up to and including automating C-level suite tasks as well, however this will likely still be an extremely high-end SOTA model not released to the public or businesses
• AI-generated video games begin taking off as generalist agentic AI blossoms and allows indie devs to create projects with no prior experience or skill; indie game spaces likely undergo a similar sloppification process that artistic ones did in 2022, and thus there is renewed pushback in that arena. The quality of AI-generated video games jumps very rapidly with no clear standard, as generative 3D allows for the creation of HD-quality assets, but the general ability of AI models still just barely allows SNES and PlayStation 1 levels of complexity (a side effect is that AI in game modding begins taking off)
• The first fully end-to-end and fully coherent AI-generated animation is created, most likely in an anime style due to that having a very large pool of similar features to learn from (as opposed to Western cartoons, which tend to be more individualized outside of a few trends). This means every asset is AI-generated: visuals, audio, voices, and script ( It must be at least 10 minutes in length to count)
• Video generation also reaches a point where a proper AI-generated “live action” movie becomes feasible, even if stitched together in 30-second or 1-minute piece (as opposed to “movie trailers” or “shorts”)
• Generative AI reaches a critical state, where the pushback from dedicated artists and creatives both reaches its peak as well as a breaking point where human artists realize that the battle is overwhelmingly lost, and the demoralization results more in a shift to protecting the labor force as well as crafting a dedicated artisanal corner for artists and creatives 
• This is largely the result of generative modalities breaching a critical threshold of “indistinguishability”—
• AI image generation will begin to fully move beyond the many limitations of previous generations, such as possessing humanlike scene understanding, perfect scene composition and world modeling, the ability to have many objects in a certain space without losing quality, and a mastery of any visual style. Historic areas of low quality (hands, faces, abnormal bodily features, blurry textures, over-designed details, failure to handle multiple subjects, incoherent text, distant details, illogical composition) will have been overcome by high-end models early in the year, and by open-source models within the year 
• AI music quickly advances to the point of crossing a threshold beyond which it becomes fully indistinguishable from human-created music; only the most edge-case “outsider music”-style creators will still be recognizable. Audio style transfer (changing instruments and voices, or perfectly ripping individual instruments, voices, or sound effects) will also become feasible.
• AI video will, gradually at first and then all at once, overcome its prior limitations of surreal lack of understanding
• AI-generated 3D will begin advancing at proper rates as well
• AI-personality relationships enter the mainstream, especially now powered by next-generation AI models with multimodal capabilities
• By the end of 2025, there will no longer be any appreciable ability to discern human-created and (the highest quality) machine-generated creative output
• A trend will begin where you’ll see some exploit this gratuitously and likely to great outrage, creating “artist studios” and “game studios” and “animation studios” complete with lists of animators, writers, developers, etc. with reasonably coherent final products, but which effectively do not exist and are largely the creations of individuals (likely most of this will be centered in Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and maybe China, with ample number in the USA)
• Generalist agent AI models are widely deployed by the end of the year; after this point, everyone with a subscription will be able to essentially generate free money for themselves, or any reasonably coherent product (including whole novel series, video games up to a point, even animations) 
• Agents boost AI utility further, so the raw power of GPT-4.5 and GPT-5-class models are more optimally exploited. Agents may allow for radical boosts in productivity, such as creating movies in Source Filmmaker, creating charts and graphs in Excel, maximizing the utility of Stable Diffusion, and much more. 
• All of this coming together results in the metaverse finally beginning to emerge as a potentially worthwhile endeavor, with these early “digital Holodecks” becoming fully coherent, playable, experienceable, and/or explorable AI-generated platforms in virtual space by year’s end
• The EU continues its ban on AI deployment, which begins taking an economic toll as the USA, UK, Russia, China, India, Southeast Asia, and South America see a boom in users learning to use AI
• AI-generated income becomes a new buzzword at some point in the year. GPT-5-class agentic models are the first that see a genuine RoI: especially early-comers (who will use GPT-5 to complete existing online task jobs) and late-comers (who will enter into a net-space that is adapted to autonomous agent work), AI-generated income will become a new hot trend by the end of 2025 and will boom in 2026, likely receiving ample internet coverage and YouTube video essays on the subject, with some portraying AI-generated income as a “power to the people” movement not unlike the GameStop trading fiasco
• Activist concerns for the environmental effects of AI will begin to grow in intensity. This is effectively the replacement to the “Anti-AI art” movement once generative AI proves too overwhelming to stop. While future improvements to AI will greatly reduce the negative environmental effects, as of 2025, there is genuine reason to be concerned by the exponentially increasing energy costs
• The AI-generated income trend will play into this. It will have energy expenditure similar to cryptocurrency, but with a massively lower barrier to entry and much easier ability to earn spendable income (up to and including AI agents themselves remotely mining crypto, or even creating and trading crypto among themselves), and thus many poorer regions will be the biggest adopters of this, especially Southeast Asia, China, and India, with some expansion into Africa and Eastern Europe as well
• Some economists will sound the alarm on this sudden explosion of AI-generated income, though naturally some people will claim said economists are “the elite trying to keep the poor in line”
• Medical AI licks its first “deep disease,” perhaps a relatively benign and already well-understood form of cancer, opening the door to AI solving health as we know it over the next decade
• Embodied AI advances tremendously, with humanoid and nonhuman robots beginning to display more complex and real-time motions fully autonomously
• The first bipedal humanoid robot for the home is widely deployed, though likely not a major commercial success
• Combat robotics continues their advance towards widespread deployment, likely seeing their first major use in Ukraine or the Middle East
• Prosthetic limbs designed and powered by AI begin deployment, teasing a somewhat distant future where artificial limbs are superior to natural ones
• The return of the Automat: fully-automated foodshops begin their return and spread, now powered by AI and robotics that are robust enough to handle enough chaos to work in the real world at a fast enough pace to keep up with demand
• Automated checkouts and kiosks also pilot next-generation AI inferences to assist with intuitiveness and ease of usability in order to reduce frustration and resistance
• Robotic store stockers and cleaners begin being deployed in larger numbers
• China’s economic issues result in them pioneering the use of a modern Cybersyn AI-powered economic model. Western outlets will decry this as fanciful nonsense, but will actually be frightened because of the probability that it resolves the country’s overall woes
• President Trump forms a dedicated Department of Artificial Intelligence (name pending) to help guide and regulate AI development, however this is largely sidelined by business interests seeking profit maximization (at least one member of this department, however, will come to the same conclusion I have in my Technist posts about this profit maximization inevitably leading to AI models outright managing the economy and killing capitalism, but will be ignored)
• Passenger drones begin taking off in earnest at long last, though still as a niche, start becoming a sight in the skies of Dubai and China. All are fully autonomous, with some ability for manual control in case of emergencies 
• The first widely available next-generation brain-computer interface released, a noninvasive brain scanner that is powerful enough, accurate enough, and uses AI well enough to allow for coherent, usably-fast-enough texting by thinking
• Virtual reality market still largely slow-growing
• Augmented reality sees a boomtime, however, as a series of new smartglasses and headsets are released by various companies, now with the added power afforded by AI inferencing
• Autonomous vehicles finally begin reaching Level 4 in real ways, with some experiments reaching Level 5
• Tesla’s Full Self Driving (which is still Level 2 despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary) influences new car releases, and driver assist becomes a much more common feature in new models
• Electric vehicle sales reach over 30 million worldwide, representing 20% to 25% of new car sales
• Carless city pilots are approved in Europe
• Solar power continues its relentless boom
• Solar power formally passes 2 TW installed globally, rapidly approaching 3 TW by 2026
• Solar power supplies over 75% of energy growth in the USA alone
• Nuclear power continues its resurgence, especially as a result of AI energy demand
• Nuclear fusion undergoes its most transformative year of progress yet, by the end of the year, fusion power begins to seem truly achievable
• The biggest nuclear fusion breakthrough is repeated net energy gain by increasing amounts, including at least one experiment that has enough net energy gain to be described as “grid-usable”. Likely this will be driven by an advanced AI model.
• Increasingly rapid infrastructural development underway in East and Sub-saharan Africa as a result of Chinese investments and assistance, leading to the first instance of recognition of African cities being “futuristic”, most notably Nairobi
• Russo-Ukraine War continues, and quickly becomes a testing ground for new military technology, such as combat robots, directed energy weapons, and powered exoskeletons. Perhaps there will be an anachronistic news story of trench warfare and even a cavalry charge mixed with this advanced technology.

WILD CARD

• Room temperature superconductivity is formally proven, this time by an AI-human collaboration, with a clear path towards commercialization 
• An exoplanet is discovered that has all the necessary signs of single-celled life
• At least one conflict sees the limited use of tactical nuclear weaponry (no greater than 5 to 10 kiloton yield)
• De-extinction of an extinct species is carried out, likely of a recently extinct species of rodent or bird
• Major volcanic eruption causes planes to be grounded and rerouted either in Northern Europe or East Asia
• At least one SOTA agent-driven AI model displays uncontrolled emergent behavior.

AI-generated income is probably going to be the biggest news story of this year. Anything related to a man’s wallet is going to attract more attention than anything else, barring a man’s lovelife— and to that end, AI relationship apps will still see great growth, especially among Zoomers, Generation Alpha youths, and the more jilted members of older generations. It will likely boom when multimodal customization will arrive, allowing one to create their “perfect” waifu/husbando, animated and overlaid IRL and so on.
As for the income part, I do feel that while the early days will be fruitful for the proletariat buying into it, it’s not going to be the “fully automated luxury communism” we’re hoping for. Likely if you’re an Average Joe or Jane looking to make some money with AI, it’s going to depend on a variety of factors. If you buy in early, there’ll still likely be a great number of online jobs and tasks that can be done, but those will absolutely be burned through quickly. So for the most part, it will likely not be more than “use your AI agent to earn a free $10 almost every day.” And even that might differ between an open-source deployment vs something easy to use online that still wants to take a cut of what you earn.  This could easily go the route of crypto as a result, where hoarders and scalpers bought hundreds of GPUs to mine bitcoin. Except in this case, it’s more down to hoarding GPUs to power agent swarms to maximize income, so the “power to the people” narrative early on may quickly get replaced by a sense that a few AI powerjocks took over everything. Of course this may be either overly optimistic or overly pessimistic— AI changes the game too greatly to see past the digital fog, so who knows how it will play out, other than that it will absolutely get publications to scream about how AI and greed are supercharging global warming.
But if you just want some extra money to earn without it being so esoteric, I still see a point even as early as late next year where you could deploy an agent to work for you. The question is “how much do you earn from that” since you do have to factor in the inference costs of running the model— if it costs $50 to earn $10, that’s not a viable method to earn anything.

But I digress! The fact we are even at this point is a dream come true, the realization of my daydreams of a decade prior, and the scope of AI alone is almost overwhelming, as I could touch on many different topics over the course of a novels’ worth text without crossing over any of them. 
Alas, I won’t, and instead I’ll let it come as it does.

The overwhelming trend of the year is simply that “AI has arrived.” The GPT-4 class has been overcome. Gemini 2 Flash was the last hurrah of that class (as a GPT-4.25 level model akin to Claude 3.6 Sonnet). As a result, it is now impossible to deny that extreme, transformative changes are imminent, if not already beginning. The skepticism afforded by the limitations of the GPT-4 class of models are no longer valid. Likely it will seem that AI suddenly burst forth into practical utility all at once out of nowhere, blindsiding many figures who’ve made good pennies off of convincing their audiences that AI has hit a wall, is useless, is a scam, and is dying off. Most notable will be the deployment of agent workflows and, eventually, agent swarms. Autonomous cognitive agents have long been the goal, essentially allowing frontier models to “wake up” and take actions without the need of being prompted. Combined with Chain of Thought reasoning and internal tree search, this is the moment where AI shifts from the early transitory stages it’s been since GPT-2 to the next level entirely, where human ability is now so augmented by AI that, to some extent, you need not even commit to any form of labor to earn income; meanwhile, generative AI models will be a stone’s toss away from a proto-holodeck.

As I say this now, I expect many people reading this in 2024 and early 2025 will think that, despite all that’s been done in this field, this is all still too much and too outlandish of a prediction for 2025. Perhaps it is; perhaps there will be some widely-anticipated but nevertheless unexpected slowdown to AI that proves to actually pop the generative AI bubble and, circa December 2025, we are only marginally ahead of where we are now. After all, hadn’t I predicted last year that one lab would announce they possess an AGI this year?

Yet the possibility also stands that this might still prove to be a conservative prediction of what will be possible a year from now. Perhaps the foundational activities over the past two years that caused that seeming plateau ever since GPT-4’s explosive release and wrought all those Marcusian predictions of the imminent death of contemporary generative AI were all in service of a great leap forward to be seen in the coming year, and we will look back on late 2023 through 2024/early 2025 as essentially “the calm before the biggest storm in technological history,” the lull before the shockwave, the retracting sea baring the naked seabed before the tsunami…

[erowind]

I may come back and edit more predictions into this post.

AI will cause at least 1 major collective delusion event like we just saw with the New Jersey "UFO sightings" in 2025.
People don't even need AI to delude themselves, it's only going to get more absurd, how long until people are posting AI generated sightings of gnomes and bigfoot?

[Vakanai]

My 2025 predictions:

The next AI models are agentic and completely come as a shock to the people claiming we've already hit the limits of AI. Some people will even claim one of these models has reached AGI-status, but it's really still just proto-AGI.

The number of electric vehicles produced and sold will break a new record.

More driverless taxis will be on the road and in more places.

Despite advancements in robotics, Elon will still BS people with teleoperated versions in some event.

Another nuclear fusion record will be broken, but still won't be ready for powering the grid.

Continuing the trend brought on by climate change, 2025 will be hotter than 2024.

Despite distancing himself from it during his campaign, it will be quickly made evident that Trump's administration will be pursuing the goals and methods detailed in the Project 2025 plan.

LGBTQ+ rights will receive major setbacks under Trump, especially trans rights.

States will pass successful laws restricting women from going to other states to get an abortion or get abortion pills through the mail.

Trump will negotiate an end to the war Ukraine that favors the Russian invaders. Because he's Putin's buffoon.

Trump will make good on his promise to "drill baby drill" and undo all green initiatives and harm the environment at an accelerated pace.



Long shot predictions:

China invades Taiwan. I think this is more likely in 26 or 27, but next year is certainly a possibility.

The Supreme Court overturns gay marriage. Again, feel this is more a 2026 prediction, but next year is still a possibility.

Trump will pull us out of NATO.

The Google/Samsung joint VR headset finally makes VR "mainstream."

They finally find a way to scale graphene production up to commercial scale, finally delivering on the promise of this wonder material.

[firestar464]

- USA attempts to go fascist, likely through a 1933 Germany scenario where Congress passes an enabling act at gunpoint (Trump can legally mobilize militias under the Insurrection Act). This can either fail due to popular resistance or succeed, with Trump becoming the head of a national personality cult. There will be civil war if AGI arrives (I expect it to sometime around March) and we get the tech unemployment stuff happening, as Trump is neither going to implement UBI nor ban AI. Spain 2.0 bruh
- Contingent on the US going fascist: Elon absorbs his competitors. For example, OAI and Anthropic get absorbed into xAI.
- Antisemitism goes up because people need "DA JOOS" to blame for "wOkE hOllYwOOd" (also when Robert Sapolsky, a Jewish man, gets arrested by the new government and potentially executed simply for explaining the neurobiology of trans people, which is seen by the new government as promoting "transgender ideology")
- Somebody gets fucking shot over genAI (seriously *sigh*)
- Ukraine faces an uncertain fate as US support ends. It is unclear whether Europe will step up to their new responsibility for safeguarding the free world. In the event they don't, there's either a ceasefire or this shit just continues.
A friend hypothesized that the fall of Assad will eventually inspire Iranians to remove Khameini and buds, though at this point IDK what will make this regime fall. I hope I'll be pleasantly surprised IG.

[Powers]

[Yearly silence.]

[Bird]

Man, maybe I'll write something here. I don't know. A handful of my most critical predictions for 2024 were just so far off the mark

[Powers]

Man, maybe I'll write something here. I don't know. A handful of my most critical predictions for 2024 were just so far off the mark

Same, and besides that what I will predict upon? AI? China invading Taiwan? (More unlikely with each passing day imo)

[erowind]

Yuli tends to get most bases covered in his big post, I don't have much to add these days either.

[funkervogt]

Here are my 2025 predictions:

Trump's first year of his second term will fall short of the high hopes and fears that conservatives and liberals expect, respectively. The number of illegal immigrants inside the U.S. will probably drop by 10% at most, and mostly thanks to people voluntarily leaving for their countries, or U.S. law enforcement deporting the worst criminals among their ranks (murderers, rapists, con artists, etc.) who ended up in jail after regular arrests. There will be no Naziesque mass roundups or networks of deportation camps.

In Ukraine, Russia will exhaust nearly all its stockpiles of Soviet-era weapons and ammunition and face major economic problems by December if the fighting continues at its current intensity. However, Ukraine's warmaking ability could also be sabotaged by Trump, who could sharply reduce U.S. aid (I actually think there's a good chance he won't cut it decisively). Either way, 2025 will be a pivotal year for the Ukraine War.

China will not invade Taiwan.

GPT-5 will be released. It will not be an AGI.

I agree with these that some of you have already posted:

Video generation also reaches a point where a proper AI-generated “live action” movie becomes feasible, even if stitched together in 30-second or 1-minute piece (as opposed to “movie trailers” or “shorts”)

Solar power continues its relentless boom. No slowdown.

[firestar464]

-Jan 23: Same-sex marriage becomes legal in Thailand. US sanctions Thailand over this.
-Feb 9: Ecuadorian general election. Essentially a rematch between incumbent president Daniel Noboa and former National Assembly member Luisa Gonzalez. After both rounds conclude Noboa is reelected.
-Feb 9: Liechenstein general election. The incumbent VU-FBP coalition is given another mandate by voters.
-Feb 23: Germany holds its federal snap election. The Union parties (the CDU and CSU) come out on top. They form a coalition with the SPD to keep out the far-right AfD, making Friedrich Merz the next prime minister. Wouldn't be surprised to see a foreign influence campaign from both Russia and the US.
-Late February: Canada holds its snap elections for the 45th Parliament after Trump's inauguration. The Conservatives win. I'm not sure what's going to happen, but at best we see promotion of fossil fuels, anti-immigration policy, tough-on-crime measures (*sigh* this shit don't work, it's just good for kneejerk "we're being strong raaaaah!") as well as increased queerphobia and federal use of the notwithstanding clause. Worst case scenario dude just invites Trump in for Anschluss and Canada becomes Austria 1938 basically.
-May 11: Albanian parliamentary election. Data on this is limited, but I expect incumbent PM Edi Rama's party to be given another mandate.
-No later than May 18: Polish presidential election. First-round winners are president of the Institute of National Remembrance Karol Nawrocki, backed by the same party (Law and Justice) as the current president and mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzakowski, a member of PM Donald Tusk's Civic Platform party. Trzakowski prevails in the second round.
-Aug 17: Bolivian general election. Stuff seems really complicated over there, but I'd assume based on my limited knowledge that Cochabamba mayor Manfred Reyes Villa and President of the Chamber of Senators Andronico Rodriguez would advance to Round 2 (if the latter runs, that is). I'd also say Villa would win, though IDK man
-Sep 8: Far-right FrP comes out on top in Norwegian parliamentary election.
-Oct: ANO wins Czech parliamentary elections.
-Oct 26: Dunno what to say about Argentina.
-Nov 23: Too early to say who runs, but Providencia mayor Evelyn Matthei would probably win Chile's presidential election based on data from hypothetical opinion polls.
-Late 2025: Venezuela is set to have their sham parliamentary elections. You know who'd win, though legitimate president-elect Gonzalez Urrutia has promised to return to Venezuela after January 10. Apparently he has some sort of plan. IDK what's gonna happen really.

[GTrang]

October 14, 2025 - Microsoft ends support for Windows 10. Unfortunately, older PCs that do not support TPM 2.0 cannot be upgraded to Windows 11, so many Windows 10 users would be forced to get a new PC or pay for "Extended Security Updates" like with Windows 7.

[Doozer]

-Protests in the country of Georgia will result in the toppling of the newly elected President Mikheil Kavelashvili.
-A new wave of protests in Iran will escalate into a full-blown second revolution unseen since 1979.
-Breakthroughs are made in dental regeneration.
-Sony announces the PS6.

[Ozzie guy]

At least 50% of r/singularity will think we have AGI after some further improvements probably involving agents but the first generation of agentic AI will be retarded in many ways. We already have human level intelligence in humans so very dumb agents will have limited impact on the world. It will be another year of hype and frustration of not being there yet.
We will probably hear many likely wrong predictions of human level AGI in 2026 whist the debate over if we have AGI now is not finished yet.

Oddly even though 2025 AI will still have limited to no impact on the world the "AI bubble" will not end and may be inflated. Progress still is factual and massive with the so-called bubble being people investing in what they think AI will look like in a few years rather than the now so with proof of progress there is no reason for it to pop.

[Solaris]

2025 predictions

- In generel, I think this will be an uneventful year in terms of technological progress. There will be some things here and there of some major news, but as we end 2025, it will not feel different than the end of 2024.


- No AGI in 2025 and no Proto-AGI. However whether Proto-AGI is here and just kept a secret is unknown, but my bet is that it isn't.
- GPT-5 is released, but will not feel vastly different from GPT-4. It will be just a model that do less mistakes, but they will still be there. A current issue with the current version is that it never really does what you want, you have to be very explicit with your intentions and reiterate on it as the conversation moves forward. I put it to use in Python scripting and excel formulas at work, and even specifying the conditions at the first post, it just abandons a lot of them as we move forward, forcing me to use more time on it.
- Agents are not available for use in 2025 in ChatGPT-5, but they have it available internally, so it's just a matter of time before it truly comes. The issue will not be releasing it on the platform, but political obstacles. So the new economy due to agents will not occur, and even if it does occur, there is nothing as free money. Early insiders will take the profit that is there, and average Joe will not make any money. I therefore do not believe in AI generated income, unless it's extremely small, like we have today by completing a 30 min survey, and earn a dollar.
- Unemployment due to AI will not be an issue, and compared to previous years, I do not see it being a major topic. this year. One reason there was this talk about it back in 2023 was that ChatGPT was completely new to the public. No one knew about it. So it was a major shock, and unless a complete new groundbreaking technology makes a similar entrance, I do not see any fear emerging except in particular fields (which we have already seen). A new ChatGPT model will not initiate a new type of risk. However those that truly knows about the implications of AI will be in even more red alert as the path towards AGI becomes more real.
- AI generated videos with a runtime less than 1 minute seems very plausible, which will create panic in hollywood.

- For videogames I also see no real impact this year.
- I have seen more than one comment predict the announcement of a PS6, the next generation of consoles. I consider this extremely unlikely, as the playstation announcement ends with it being released the same year or next (this is how it has been historically). I do not see a PS6 in 2025 or 2026, merely 5 years after the PS5 and one year after the PS5 pro, I actually see it no later than 2029. One reason is that there was a lot of negative talk about the PS5 pro. People didn't want it, the PS5 had merely been there, what was the improvements of it had compared to standard PS5? Marginal in many eyes, and I agree. Each console generation feels less impressive, and Sony knows that the next gen console has to feel next gen. It also just takes more time to make the architecture of these machines, that becomes more advanced for each generation.
- No GTA VI next year. We have had one teaser trailer back in late 2023, and nothing else has occurred. We know that Rockstar at least has 3 trailers in the pipeline with a distance between them. I would not be surprised if it does not even release in 2026.
- I also saw a prediction of AI generated video games made by people without any knowledge, experience or skill being a thing. I consider this completely wrong, unless they just want to make a simple Scrappy Bird game. It's not simple to make even a basic game. One thing is the code generation that GPT will give you that has to be correct in every department, but then there is using the actual IDE, which is beyond GPT's realm. Unless GPT becomes an operating system able to take control of the entire computer, then you are on your own, and then it just falls flat. You will have to learn, and then you don't become someone without programming experience, and most will just give up. AI generated games made by people that knows programming even on an intermediate level is another matter, and I do see AI generated games being a thing.
- We will see more Western developers revert back to more conservative games in their future lineup. Here it's not just a matter of sequels, spin-offs and so on, but also the politics within the games. It becomes more apparent that "woke" agendas simply do not work in video games. Games like that continue to fail, gamers will not buy them, and they are extremely vocal about it. A major issue for the executives given the current political climate, because it's the investors that demand these things just like in any other company in other sectors And while they continue to blame the audience, in the end, all they think about is money. So games announced for release in 2026, 2027 and so on will in most cases be oldschool.
- Virtual reality will see nothing, the interest is still low, and the question remains. Will these companies even attempt to make new models like a PS VR3 in the short-intermediate run?

- In the political space, everything is very uncertain.
- Israel will continue to eradicate Palestine. Nothing truly substantial will be done about it, almost every western nation supports it. Only in the population do we see resistance, but it's too small. As time goes, it's forgotten and people revert back to their instagram habits, Facebook and other digital consumption to distract from the war crimes committed.
- In terms of Ukraine, I do see it ending finally next year. However it might not happen. I truly do not know what Trump will do, and what Putin will do. Anything can happen, but I want it to end. I do not care if Ukraine gets a bad deal. In the long run, it's better for the entire humanity for it to end as it will create more stability in the world. Russia will undergo a recovery mode, and with their damaged economy and population, it will take many years to recover and Russia will end up being the greatest loser of the 21st century losing the AI race. Great job Putin.
- China will not invade Taiwan.
- Trump will not make USA a dictatorship, and I see this Project 2025 amounting to nothing in 2025 and beyond. I see this as a deja vu of 2016, where everyone were making likewise outlandish claims about USA under Trump, and today USA is still USA.
- Less regulation in EU. While safety is a priority, it has been well known that regulation has made EU fall extremely behind in the AI department. There will even be talks about deregulation.

- Then there is the economy
- No recession in 2025. It's a topic that never ends, especially because of the market behaviour for many years. The only major concern we have is the major debt level in the US, and perhaps also the policies implemented by Trump, as many of the proposals he had seems damaging to the economy long-term.
- And in that department, there has been talks for a long time about an AI-bubble. Could it burst? Maybe, as a lot of the large cap tech stocks trades at a premium, but with the technological advancement occuring each day, I see the momentum continue. And if the AI bubble burst, it will just be early Christmas for investors as they can buy the stocks at a cheaper price.
- Good stocks to buy for 2025 include NVIDIA, Palantir, Broadcom, Google, Amazon and Meta. A portfolio of that will likely result in a 70-100% gain at year's end, unless a correction comes.
- Quantum stock has exploded this November and December and will continue to at least until February. As it becomes apparent that none of them are profitable, and there will be a few years until it happens, most of them will revert back to pre-november values. The ones that remain will create future millionaires in 2-5 years. My bet is on Rigetti Computing and IONQ and companies that revolves around security in a post-quantum world.

[Lilymoon]

Is there and predictions or rumors of second generation of Chat-GDP or OPEN-AI or gemini ai coming out?

How much better will the second generation of Chat-GDP or OPEN-AI or gemini ai be?

Is that more predictions for the 2026 timeline?

[firestar464]

Honestly, I'm not sure what you're talking about. The current SOTA models are o3 (OAI) and Gemini 2.5. Are you instead referring to the next generations of these models?

Also OAI is a company, not an AI.

[Yuli Ban]

Fascinating to see how this year is playing out.

A lot of my AI predictions are kind of sort of coming true. But somehow there's been no big breakthrough. Despite what e/acc types keep saying, I am routinely unimpressed with attempts to push the transformer further. It gets high benchmark scores but outside some niche use cases, there's been no new GPT-3.5 moment. It feels like the AI field is in denial.

Trump is certainly trying to play dictator, and there are indeed networks of internment camps and mass roundups, but the pushback is beginning to grow.

There's been two separate war near misses this year, between India and Pakistan, and Israel and Iran. Yet both fizzled out before anything spicy could erupt. A quasi instance is currently unfolding thanks to the drones and Russian jets in Europe, but I doubt we'll get more than bluster. Trump is currently playing against Russia. My expectation is he'll go back to war against Eastasia soon and try to screw over Zelensky and NATO in an unexpected/very much expected way.

Israel! Israel I think is in a much worse spot than we think. Few pay attention to what's happening INSIDE Israel, and the situation there seems to be extremely tense if not dire, with the dictatorial aspirations of Otzma Yehudit discouraging businesses and professionals, the orthodox rejecting the reservist call, and general strikes beginning to unfold with greater intensity. Israel seemed stable at the start of the year but now I'm not so sure...


It just feels like a bizarrely disappointing year thus far. Robots are interesting, but gradually improving. AI social issues are interesting to follow too. It's certainly not a "mundane" year. It's just that it feels so... I don't know the best word. Perhaps "frustrating"
I had hoped for more by now.

[wjfox]

This month's news about Huntington's disease has been one of the most (if not the most) promising breakthroughs of the year so far, IMO. They basically got three-quarters of the way towards completely halting it! Until now, it was pretty much untreatable. Now, imagine what other types of neurodegenerative conditions might be cured or slowed using similar methods.

[funkervogt]

Here are my 2025 predictions:

Trump's first year of his second term will fall short of the high hopes and fears that conservatives and liberals expect, respectively. The number of illegal immigrants inside the U.S. will probably drop by 10% at most, and mostly thanks to people voluntarily leaving for their countries, or U.S. law enforcement deporting the worst criminals among their ranks (murderers, rapists, con artists, etc.) who ended up in jail after regular arrests. There will be no Naziesque mass roundups or networks of deportation camps.

I was right about the specific issue of illegal immigration but wrong on the broader impact of Trump's second term. He's been far harsher and more effective than I assumed he'd be. Clearly, he learned much from the mistakes of his first term, spent four years in the wildness nursing grudges, and unleashed on his enemies starting on the first day of his new term.

In Ukraine, Russia will exhaust nearly all its stockpiles of Soviet-era weapons and ammunition and face major economic problems by December if the fighting continues at its current intensity. However, Ukraine's warmaking ability could also be sabotaged by Trump, who could sharply reduce U.S. aid (I actually think there's a good chance he won't cut it decisively). Either way, 2025 will be a pivotal year for the Ukraine War.

My prediction was part right, part unclear. Russia is fielding notably fewer tanks in Ukraine due to shortages and its attacks are now primarily infantry who go into battle on foot or on motorcycles. Russia's economy is also under heavy strain. Trump did cut the military aid to Ukraine. However, these problems have not proven fatal to either side, and remarkably, they seem willing and able to fight on indefinitely. I'm surprised by their resilience.

China will not invade Taiwan.

I was right.

GPT-5 will be released. It will not be an AGI.

I was right. The LLM was actually a bigger disappointment than I expected.

I agree with these that some of you have already posted:

Video generation also reaches a point where a proper AI-generated “live action” movie becomes feasible, even if stitched together in 30-second or 1-minute piece (as opposed to “movie trailers” or “shorts”)

I don't see evidence that anyone has done this, but there's no technical reason they couldn't using the method I described.

Solar power continues its relentless boom. No slowdown.

I was right, and I predict the boom will accelerate next year.