A Future Timeline forum tradition of predicting the next year.
What do you think will happen in 2026?
Past yearly predictions
2015 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20200811184 ... edictions/
2016 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20210420125 ... edictions/
2017 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20200810185 ... edictions/
2018 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20201126041 ... edictions/
2019 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20201112012 ... edictions/
2020 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20210415161 ... edictions/
2021 Predictions
https://web.archive.org/web/20210420074 ... edictions/
2022 Predictions
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2113
2023 Predictions
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2693
2024 Predictions
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=3159
2025 Predictions
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=3425
Your 2026 Predictions
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weatheriscool
- Posts: 24482
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm
- Contact:
Re: Your 2026 Predictions
-Democrats regain the house in the midterm ..Not by much. +5 or 8.
-Senate remains republican but democrats win a couple of seats.
-Fusion breaks even or produces energy for up to 3 hours straight
-China installs more solar energy then the rest of the world combine once again
-Star ship launches more then one successful orbital star ship and lands the first stage.
-China lands a reusable rocket
-Telsa robot taxi explodes in scale throughout the united states. Tens of thousands of taxi by the end of the year makes it a very real challenge for waymor.
-Waymor is serving 30 + cities by years end in the United states alone.
-Chatgpt 6 becomes reality in June of 2026.
-Grok 5 becomes reality in Feb of 2026
-Gemini 4 becomes an reality in July of 2026
-These models are capable of making robots capable of being maids. These maids will be on sale in the next few years.
-These models are also advancing science and tech.
-Millions of office jobs are being replaced by a.i
-A quantum computer with 12k qubits comes online
-A.i makes figures out drugs that enhances cancer treatment for more then one form of cancer.
-The nancy grace telescope launches successfully
-Plato launches successfully.
I wish I could predict something big for male pregnancy.
I suspect this will once again be a very bad year for transgender people.
Russia won't stop their war on Ukraine
China shows off a a unit of a.i robotic super soldiers armed with guns.
-Senate remains republican but democrats win a couple of seats.
-Fusion breaks even or produces energy for up to 3 hours straight
-China installs more solar energy then the rest of the world combine once again
-Star ship launches more then one successful orbital star ship and lands the first stage.
-China lands a reusable rocket
-Telsa robot taxi explodes in scale throughout the united states. Tens of thousands of taxi by the end of the year makes it a very real challenge for waymor.
-Waymor is serving 30 + cities by years end in the United states alone.
-Chatgpt 6 becomes reality in June of 2026.
-Grok 5 becomes reality in Feb of 2026
-Gemini 4 becomes an reality in July of 2026
-These models are capable of making robots capable of being maids. These maids will be on sale in the next few years.
-These models are also advancing science and tech.
-Millions of office jobs are being replaced by a.i
-A quantum computer with 12k qubits comes online
-A.i makes figures out drugs that enhances cancer treatment for more then one form of cancer.
-The nancy grace telescope launches successfully
-Plato launches successfully.
I wish I could predict something big for male pregnancy.
I suspect this will once again be a very bad year for transgender people.
Russia won't stop their war on Ukraine
China shows off a a unit of a.i robotic super soldiers armed with guns.
Re: Your 2026 Predictions
Man, I don't have much. Predicting things is hard.
I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed by the AI progress. We're not getting robot maids in the next few years. Within most of our lifetimes, sure, but not that soon.
Last time I tried to predict GTA 6's release, it got delayed twice and is now releasing almost 2 years later than I personally assumed. I am going to just leave that prediction and hope there isn't a 3rd delay (while preparing myself for such, which would leave it releasing in 2027)
The Ukraine war can't go on forever - however, if (IF) Zelenskyy works some peace deal out with the USA, Putin will never accept it. I think it's more likely Putin further escalates things than him actually accepting any end to the war that he can't count as a massive win. I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised.
I'm predicting further challenges to gay marriage in the USA - the Supreme Court declined to hear one case, but I suspect that won't be the end of it. Trans rights in the USA will further be torn down, though, I'm strongly confident about that.
We'll have continued consequences here in Australia from the recent mass shooting - further tightening of gun controls, mainly. Government have also so far cracked down on... protests, for some reason? Least authoritarian Australian government, as the meme goes
I really can't think of much. Adulthood plus the past 5 or so years have ground down all my optimism into a pulp, it is what it is
I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed by the AI progress. We're not getting robot maids in the next few years. Within most of our lifetimes, sure, but not that soon.
Last time I tried to predict GTA 6's release, it got delayed twice and is now releasing almost 2 years later than I personally assumed. I am going to just leave that prediction and hope there isn't a 3rd delay (while preparing myself for such, which would leave it releasing in 2027)
The Ukraine war can't go on forever - however, if (IF) Zelenskyy works some peace deal out with the USA, Putin will never accept it. I think it's more likely Putin further escalates things than him actually accepting any end to the war that he can't count as a massive win. I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised.
I'm predicting further challenges to gay marriage in the USA - the Supreme Court declined to hear one case, but I suspect that won't be the end of it. Trans rights in the USA will further be torn down, though, I'm strongly confident about that.
We'll have continued consequences here in Australia from the recent mass shooting - further tightening of gun controls, mainly. Government have also so far cracked down on... protests, for some reason? Least authoritarian Australian government, as the meme goes
I really can't think of much. Adulthood plus the past 5 or so years have ground down all my optimism into a pulp, it is what it is
I'm just a bird who escapes his cage to post here sometimes.
Re: Your 2026 Predictions
When it comes to serious AI pundits some people suspected AGI in 2027 before pushing their date back.
I think 2026 is the last year that will certainly be normal. We may have more normal years after but 2026 doesn't seem to be in range of any persons AGI predictions optimists included.
AI is in a giant bubble right now and I think that even includes companies like OpenAI. It's one thing to do moonshot projects with a few hundred million funded from likeminded billionaires with everyone understanding it is a moonshot project. It's another thing for say OpenAI to be constantly getting hundreds of billions from investors whist not making a profit and claiming they will make wild returns.
Ether the bubble will pop at some point or Trump and co will protect the AI industry. (Honestly with how they like to fiddle in the economy they might unironically be the one administration that would protect AI).
The bubble popping will probably lead to heartache in singularity type communities and a decline in belief.
In reality though we will end up getting AI invested in at the appropriate amount whist continuing to have those smaller moonshot projects spring up like early DeepMind/OpenAI. A Doomer like Eliezer Yudkowsky might say we have been gifted a couple to a few more years.
Honestly I think the AI bubble could be the story of 2026 and lead to a recession and such.
I can't foresee much else of note happening for example I think the Epstein files will lead nowhere or maybe help in the arrest of like one mid profile person no one cares about.
I think 2026 is the last year that will certainly be normal. We may have more normal years after but 2026 doesn't seem to be in range of any persons AGI predictions optimists included.
AI is in a giant bubble right now and I think that even includes companies like OpenAI. It's one thing to do moonshot projects with a few hundred million funded from likeminded billionaires with everyone understanding it is a moonshot project. It's another thing for say OpenAI to be constantly getting hundreds of billions from investors whist not making a profit and claiming they will make wild returns.
Ether the bubble will pop at some point or Trump and co will protect the AI industry. (Honestly with how they like to fiddle in the economy they might unironically be the one administration that would protect AI).
The bubble popping will probably lead to heartache in singularity type communities and a decline in belief.
In reality though we will end up getting AI invested in at the appropriate amount whist continuing to have those smaller moonshot projects spring up like early DeepMind/OpenAI. A Doomer like Eliezer Yudkowsky might say we have been gifted a couple to a few more years.
Honestly I think the AI bubble could be the story of 2026 and lead to a recession and such.
I can't foresee much else of note happening for example I think the Epstein files will lead nowhere or maybe help in the arrest of like one mid profile person no one cares about.
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funkervogt
- Posts: 1365
- Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm
Re: Your 2026 Predictions
Maduro either leaves office in Venezuela or massively caves to several Trump political demands.
Solar power will continue its massive global expansion.
AGI will not be invented.
Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives.
There will be no Mideast conflicts on the scale of what we had in 2025.
Solar power will continue its massive global expansion.
AGI will not be invented.
Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives.
There will be no Mideast conflicts on the scale of what we had in 2025.
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funkervogt
- Posts: 1365
- Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm
Re: Your 2026 Predictions
One of my predictions already came true!funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed Dec 31, 2025 6:25 pm Maduro either leaves office in Venezuela or massively caves to several Trump political demands.
Re: Your 2026 Predictions
That's cool. My prediction is that AGI will continue to be a meaningless term (because the AI community had the brilliant idea to never properly define one of the most important terms in its lexicon) that serves no real purpose beyond being an easy way for skeptics to prove how cool and mature and rational they are by saying it's as far away as ever even though it's very obviously not.
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firestar464
- Posts: 7202
- Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:45 am
Re: Your 2026 Predictions
The way I understand it is "match the average person in ability" or "match the average person in ability and economic performance."
Yuli Ban's post and the definition framework from Hendrycks et. al. are also well-thought out.
Yuli Ban's post and the definition framework from Hendrycks et. al. are also well-thought out.
Re: Your 2026 Predictions
Not only that, but my take is that there will be no "fuzzy shift" into AGIfirestar464 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 05, 2026 1:52 am The way I understand it is "match the average person in ability" or "match the average person in ability and economic performance."
Yuli Ban's post and the definition framework from Hendrycks et. al. are also well-thought out.
There is no "models keep getting better and after passing some arbitrary number in the benchmarks, it's able to be declared an AGI"
It's just like superfluid helium
Cross the threshold into general-function AI, and you IMMEDIATELY see a material difference to its capabilities and behavior. No amount of boosting LLMs is going to get us there, and the reason we keep asking "Is this an AGI? Is THAT an AGI?" (which I even predicted! Last decade, remember, I outright said in the 2020s we'd be constantly calling AXIs "AGI" every other week just for doing something interesting) is because, historically, we've never had anything with general capability. So we confuse general capability models with general function ones.
When the first general function model is created, we'll know immediately.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
Re: Your 2026 Predictions
I think people can probably plant the 'AGI' marker wherever they like without it being too absurd thanks to the fact that it was never defined properly to begin with. If something can do expert-level math, understand and infer subtext from text prompts much better than the average human being, create images, work for hours, code at a human to superhuman level, amongst other skills, that's... pretty god damn general. Also keep in mind that OpenAI still has much better private models to release, like that one that won the IMO Gold raw.
r/singularity would probably dogpile me and call me a delusional cultist complete with 137 laughing-crying emojis if I said that late 2025 to early 2026 AI could plausibly be considered AGI (and I don't think it's an open-and-shut issue or anything), but it's not an absurd notion so long as your definition of AGI is just 'General task automation,' as it really should be. At the very least it's an upper range AXI, as opposed to 2020's low-end AXI. There's a bit of a trend where people (including many outside the futurism community altogether) downplay the impressiveness or importance of modern day AI because it's not 1:1 identical to sci-fi, because 1953 novels or 1991 anime OVAs written by people with no tech background are apparently the true gurus and experts and count for so much more than the amazing 20s tech that exists in reality.
Yuli's scale is good except I think that Level 3 is much, much too unfairly harsh on modern day AI to the point where it comes across as pushing a point at the sacrifice of nuance. I believe that his ideas for how to improve AI are entirely valid, but there's no making me doubt the technology's current form, not when I've used it extensively. The abilities of modern day LLMs aren't narrow (unless you mean raw LLMs without tool use) and their understanding isn't brittle under any reasonable definition of the term; I sent 25,000 messages to ChatGPT during 2025 across an incredibly wide range of subjects, and it not only unfailingly understands even the most abstract and nebulous of concepts, it often understood what I was getting at or what I was sensing (but couldn't put into words) better than I did. That's for textual understanding, anyway, which I think is basically perfect - image creation shows much poorer world modeling and understanding. I have no doubt that the things Yuli talks about will improve AI dramatically, but a more fair and reasonable stance would be "Level 3 is genuinely good but with some limitations and weaknesses" with Level 4 being "Basically flawless."
Anyway, my basic prediction for 2026: the good times come this year. All forms of the current hot-button emerging technologies like robots and video AI reach the point where they're either matured technologies or where they've advanced enough that the writing is on the wall that their primetime will come within the next year or two. 2026 is kind of the year futurism dies. Basic techs will be proven and satisfactorily matured (not necessarily perfected), with only a couple of lingering questions like "When will robots displace workers" (I would personally prefer work to become optional but available to those who want it) and "What's going to happen next year in medicine now that the groundwork has been set up for amazing things to happen much quicker than ever before?"
r/singularity would probably dogpile me and call me a delusional cultist complete with 137 laughing-crying emojis if I said that late 2025 to early 2026 AI could plausibly be considered AGI (and I don't think it's an open-and-shut issue or anything), but it's not an absurd notion so long as your definition of AGI is just 'General task automation,' as it really should be. At the very least it's an upper range AXI, as opposed to 2020's low-end AXI. There's a bit of a trend where people (including many outside the futurism community altogether) downplay the impressiveness or importance of modern day AI because it's not 1:1 identical to sci-fi, because 1953 novels or 1991 anime OVAs written by people with no tech background are apparently the true gurus and experts and count for so much more than the amazing 20s tech that exists in reality.
Yuli's scale is good except I think that Level 3 is much, much too unfairly harsh on modern day AI to the point where it comes across as pushing a point at the sacrifice of nuance. I believe that his ideas for how to improve AI are entirely valid, but there's no making me doubt the technology's current form, not when I've used it extensively. The abilities of modern day LLMs aren't narrow (unless you mean raw LLMs without tool use) and their understanding isn't brittle under any reasonable definition of the term; I sent 25,000 messages to ChatGPT during 2025 across an incredibly wide range of subjects, and it not only unfailingly understands even the most abstract and nebulous of concepts, it often understood what I was getting at or what I was sensing (but couldn't put into words) better than I did. That's for textual understanding, anyway, which I think is basically perfect - image creation shows much poorer world modeling and understanding. I have no doubt that the things Yuli talks about will improve AI dramatically, but a more fair and reasonable stance would be "Level 3 is genuinely good but with some limitations and weaknesses" with Level 4 being "Basically flawless."
Anyway, my basic prediction for 2026: the good times come this year. All forms of the current hot-button emerging technologies like robots and video AI reach the point where they're either matured technologies or where they've advanced enough that the writing is on the wall that their primetime will come within the next year or two. 2026 is kind of the year futurism dies. Basic techs will be proven and satisfactorily matured (not necessarily perfected), with only a couple of lingering questions like "When will robots displace workers" (I would personally prefer work to become optional but available to those who want it) and "What's going to happen next year in medicine now that the groundwork has been set up for amazing things to happen much quicker than ever before?"
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firestar464
- Posts: 7202
- Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:45 am
Re: Your 2026 Predictions
I'd say current AI is mid to upper-tier AXI. Definitely not general enough to be called an AGI, I don't think.