Africa 2100

Discuss the evolution of human culture, economics and politics in the decades and centuries ahead
Post Reply
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8663
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Africa 2100

Post by wjfox »

What are your predictions for how Africa will look by 2100 – politically, economically, and demographically?

My next big prediction for the timeline will be on this topic.

I already have a couple of references:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in ... ca-cities/

https://medium.com/@isaiahudotong/2100-an-african-federation

... and this one, as a kind of "bridge" between the near and more distant future:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agenda_2063



My draft so far...

2100

Africa is a major urban and political centre

Historically, Africa had been poor, with limited influence on the world stage. By 2100, this situation has dramatically reversed.

The 19th century had belonged to Great Britain, while the 20th century had been the American century. Following Asia's rise in the 21st century, the baton is now passing to Africa.

[...]

Thoughts/suggestions welcome, plus any useful references. :)


Image
User avatar
funkervogt
Posts: 1165
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm

Re: Africa 2100

Post by funkervogt »

Intelligent machines will be everywhere by 2100, and making a lot of decisions and doing a lot of work for humans. Africa and other parts of the world that are poor or disordered today could catch up to the richest countries as a result.
User avatar
BaobabScion
Posts: 102
Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:41 pm

Re: Africa 2100

Post by BaobabScion »

I'll give some declassified thoughts. I'll have you all learn the rest through experience.
  • Several African countries will probably have nascent space programs by the 2060s. A few of them, like Uganda or Egypt or Morocco, already have relatively equipped Air Forces, so this wouldn't be the quantum leap that many would consider it to be.
  • The Sahel will be well into a sustained greening process by 2100, as even the most far-off climate trigger points are set off around the 2040s-2050s. Nowadays, most people think that Africa will be the place that bears the brunt of climate catastrophe and that it'll be crippled as a result. Fortunately, the majority opinion will prove to be spectacularly, fantastically, miraculously wrong. It is the so-called "safe havens" that heaps of low-quality articles are written about today that'll end up being the places destroyed. But hey, that's for another thread.
  • Africa will be the continent with the largest Death Metal fanbase. There's already in a burgeoning scene in a few countries. Consider the Death Metal Movement in Botswana:
  • Africa's total population will be somewhere around 3 billion.
  • There'll be at least 34 million ethnic Han Chinese in Africa. This will dwarf the combined Afrikaner/Boer population, which will be around 5 million.
  • Expect the Afromech to be in wide use by 2070. This is a close approximation of one of the more boring designs:
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8663
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: Africa 2100

Post by wjfox »

Final draft. :)

This will be going on the timeline shortly (with references to be added).

Comments welcome, although I'd prefer to avoid any major changes.

----------

2100

Africa is a major urban and political centre

Historically, Africa had been poor, with limited influence on the world stage. By 2100, this situation has dramatically reversed.

The 19th century had belonged to Great Britain, while the 20th century had been the American century. Following Asia's rise in the 21st century, the baton is now passing to Africa.

After its colonisation and subjugation by foreign powers, independence movements took place in Africa in the post-WWII period. Devastating famines wracked the continent in the late 20th century, combined with political, economic, and humanitarian catastrophes, limiting its progress.

Africa's economy improved in the early 21st century, in parallel with democracy and the rule of law spreading to more of its countries. Governments began to crack down on corruption and patronage, while macroeconomic growth plans aimed at improving living conditions came to fruition. Millions of Africans flocked to cities in search of jobs and other amenities.

Meanwhile, foreign investors poured vast sums of money into Africa. China, by far the biggest contributor, sought to extract the continent's abundant metals, minerals, fossil fuels, and other resources. This occurred alongside the building of new ports, roads, pipelines, and other infrastructure. China also expanded these investments into agriculture, finance, real estate, technology, tourism, and other emerging fields.

Africa received further support and development from initiatives such as the UN's Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. Other milestones around this time included the expansion of its free trade agreements, the introduction of a single African currency, and the building of a trans-continental road and rail network to all corners of the continent.

In the 2040s, many African nations achieved economic diversification enabling them to attract foreign investment in new areas. Even the likes of oil-rich Nigeria had begun to transition away from older fossil fuel industries. This decade saw ecological restoration efforts completed in the Niger Delta and the final clearing of landmines in countries such as Angola adding a further boost to social and economic development. Meanwhile, some of the richer African nations invested in new coastal defences to mitigate sea level rises.

In Central Africa, the Congolian rainforests had lost two-thirds of their original tree cover by mid-century. Domestic and international agreements aimed at slowing the rate of deforestation came into force, with better monitoring and regulations preventing a complete collapse of the region, although problems would persist for some time into the future.

By 2050, Africa's population stood at 2.5 billion – two and a half times the number in 2009 – and continued to rise.* While other continents had a fertility rate near or below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, Africa maintained a figure well above this, having only recently fallen below 3.0.

Improvements in education, economic opportunity, living standards, and medicine transformed much of Africa, with child mortality declining to negligible levels in many countries. Diseases such as dengue fever, HIV/AIDS, and malaria became largely eradicated. By 2050, the average life expectancy in Africa had reached 70 – up from 60 in 2013, 50 in 1981, and just 40 in 1958.

Agenda 2063, a set of initiatives proposed 50 years earlier, achieved most of its long-term goals.* These included further improvements in living standards, education, and health, alongside the enshrinement of democratic values, equality, and human rights. For some African nations still struggling with repressive and dictatorial regimes, these goals would remain out of reach for now. But for Africa in aggregate, a whole new plateau of possibilities had emerged. Agenda 2063 also called for a more united Africa, strengthened by continental institutions to maintain peace and stability.

By now, the earlier transport networks had seen upgrades such as high-speed rail and widespread electric charging/self-driving infrastructure. Major new construction projects included the 'Bridge of Horns' across the Red Sea, linking East Africa with the Middle East, and a 155 km tunnel from Tunisia to Sicily.*

Africa faced severe environmental challenges, being among the regions most vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, drought, and increased climate variability, all threatened to derail economic and human development. Climate change exacerbated long-standing problems and reignited earlier tensions. At several points during the mid-to-late 21st century, it appeared that Africa's progress would stall, or even go into reverse.

Refugee movements became a particular source of conflict – especially in the north, where millions attempted to reach southern Europe, amid pressures from desertification and water scarcity.

Africa had worked to modernise its agriculture with more sustainable practices and a variety of new technological approaches. One of the biggest success stories proved to be the introduction of next-generation, genetically modified crops. In earlier decades, laboratory and field tests had shown the potential for yield boosts of 40% or more.*** Even greater yield increases became possible with advances in CRISPR and related platforms. Meanwhile, the growing use of robots and AI, now increasingly accessible and low-cost for even developing countries, helped in the planning, management, production, harvesting, and distribution of farming. Rooftop and vertical farming became popular, while buildings had their surfaces painted with heat-reflective coatings to bring down temperatures by up to 10°C.* The increased planting of trees in urban areas helped to further improve local cooling, air quality, and the ability to absorb rainwater.*

Other, more radical solutions became increasingly necessary as the impacts of climate change worsened. In the north, a megaproject entered its final stage in preventing the expansion of the Sahara, with financing and support from southern European nations who also stood to be affected as winds carried the sands across the Mediterranean Sea. This involved re-vegetating vast areas of uninhabited desert, while also creating saltwater-cooled greenhouses with solar power, using both photovoltaics and concentrated solar power.


Image


On the coasts, new pipelines carried water from desalination plants, using nanofiltration for greater efficiency. Many communities also benefited from atmospheric water generators extracting water from ambient air.

In the aftermath of disasters such as floods or wildfires, 3D printing technology aided recovery efforts. This enabled homes and other buildings to be relocated and replaced in a matter of hours.*

With most of the world having reached net zero by 2050, in part thanks to the unexpectedly rapid rollout of solar and wind power, attention had turned to carbon negative technologies aimed at removing historical emissions of greenhouse gases. The second half of the 21st century saw a major scaling up of these efforts, with gigatons being captured each year and buried or converted into useful products. The Keeling Curve, which had measured the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere since 1958, first plateaued, and then began to decline.

These and other developments enabled Africa to avoid the more apocalyptic impacts of climate change that some analysts had predicted. The continent faced many ongoing crises, however, with periodic flashpoints and uneven progress across the continent. While the richer nations and cities achieved a relative stability, poorer and more rural areas struggled to implement the required adaptation measures. The worst-hit regions became the subject of long-term, large-scale resettlement and compensation programs, with international negotiations dragging on for decades.

Nevertheless, Africa as a whole survived and in many ways has prospered by 2100 – entering the 22nd century as a stronger, more confident, independent, and geopolitically influential player. Climate change has failed to significantly reduce its total population, now above four billion and still rising. More and more people have flocked to its cities, taking advantage of the safe haven and greater opportunities available in them. Artificial intelligence now controls many aspects of African society and solves problems faster and more effectively than in the past.

Today, in 2100, 13 of the 20 largest cities in the world are African,* up from just two in 2020. The most populous of all is Lagos, Nigeria, which has swelled from 7.3 million a century earlier to more than 88 million now, a 12-fold increase. Other megacities of 2100 include Kinshasa (60m) and Khartoum (28m).

The gross domestic product (GDP) per capita for Sub-Saharan Africa stood at just $1,323 in 1950. This rose to $1,981 by the year 2000 and $3,532 by 2020 and $5,500 by 2050 (adjusted for inflation and in 2011 dollars). By 2100, the average person in Sub-Saharan Africa can expect to earn almost $10,000 – five times more than a century earlier. A few of the richer nations have GDPs per capita exceeding $50,000 and comparable to a Western income circa 2020. In light of environmental and resource constraints, however, GDP has become a less important consideration by now, with new metrics the preferred choice for many people in terms of measuring societal wealth, health, and overall well-being.

Africa continues to make progress during the 22nd century, in an increasingly homogenised and globalised world that now offers a more level playing field in terms of economic and political dynamism.
User avatar
funkervogt
Posts: 1165
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm

Re: Africa 2100

Post by funkervogt »

North Africa has colossal solar power potential (I actually just watched some videos on this) and even respectable wind power potential. Even if they don't export large amounts of energy to Europe, they could harness it to fulfill their local needs.
User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 6474
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Africa 2100

Post by caltrek »

I suppose it is reasonable to identify China as the single largest investor country and to give UN's Sustainable Development Goals an honorable mention. Still, I think private investment funneled in by the venture capital sector in Western society should also get at least a mention. Linked is an article from TechCrunch that I cited a while ago. I think it is suggestive of emerging trends in that regard.

https://techcrunch.com/2021/11/12/faste ... er-rivals/

Muti-national corporations may be one source of such venture capital funding:

https://techcrunch.com/2021/10/06/googl ... -startups/












.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
Tadasuke
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:15 pm
Location: Europe

Re: Africa 2100

Post by Tadasuke »

wjfox wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:42 pmThe gross domestic product (GDP) per capita for Sub-Saharan Africa stood at just $1,323 in 1950. This rose to $1,981 by the year 2000 and $3,532 by 2020 and $5,500 by 2050 (adjusted for inflation and in 2011 dollars). By 2100, the average person in Sub-Saharan Africa can expect to earn almost $10,000 – five times more than a century earlier. A few of the richer nations have GDPs per capita exceeding $50,000 and comparable to a Western income circa 2020. In light of environmental and resource constraints, however, GDP has become a less important consideration by now, with new metrics the preferred choice for many people in terms of measuring societal wealth, health, and overall well-being.
Do you really think that in exponentially growing world, Sub-Saharan Africa will have GDP per capita at 2020 Bulgaria level? I don't think so. If there had been 2.67x growth between 1950 and 2020, why would there be less than 2x between 2050 and 2100? Rate of change has been increasing long-term. I expect at least 4x between 2050 and 2100 with automation, AI, GMO. Especially with Chinese investments. Or do you consider Sub-Saharan Africans as too stupid to achieve more than almost 2x? Their IQs are indeed the lowest in the world currently.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
User avatar
raklian
Posts: 1746
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:46 pm
Location: North Carolina

Re: Africa 2100

Post by raklian »

Tadasuke wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:44 pm Their IQs are indeed the lowest in the world currently.
Well, they do say IQ is fairly correlated with economic and food security of a nation.
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
User avatar
BaobabScion
Posts: 102
Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:41 pm

Re: Africa 2100

Post by BaobabScion »

Tadasuke wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:44 pm Or do you consider Sub-Saharan Africans as too stupid to achieve more than almost 2x? Their IQs are indeed the lowest in the world currently.
What was the point of this comment?
Tadasuke
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:15 pm
Location: Europe

Re: Africa 2100

Post by Tadasuke »

BaobabScion wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:06 pm
Tadasuke wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:44 pm Or do you consider Sub-Saharan Africans as too stupid to achieve more than almost 2x? Their IQs are indeed the lowest in the world currently.
What was the point of this comment?
I'm seriously asking why so conservative estimates. I think that by the 2nd half of this century people will use brain implants and even nanobots to boost their intelligence. So that not even 2x is rather pessimistic. But perhaps they are so much behind that they won't catch up even by 2100. China used to be in the TOP 20 poorest countries after WW2, even into the 1980s. Look at videos from China today. Things can massively change in just 40 years.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
Post Reply