The outcome of Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022-202..

Discuss the evolution of human culture, economics and politics in the decades and centuries ahead

How will the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022-202.. end?

Poll ended at Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:06 pm

1) Russia’s Decisive victory (Russia controls several regions of Ukraine in addition to Crimea and Donbass)
3
20%
2) Russia's Pyrrhic victory (Russia controls Crimea and Donbass but nothing else)
6
40%
3) Ukraine’s Pyrrhic victory (return to status-quo before February 2022)
1
7%
4) Ukraine’s Decisive victory (Ukraine regains control over Crimea and Donbass)
5
33%
 
Total votes: 15

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Lorem Ipsum
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Re: The outcome of Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022-202..

Post by Lorem Ipsum »

Vakanai wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 2:04 am This could turn into Russia's own version of America's unending War on Terror/Afganistan/Iraq.
I doubt it since they directly border Russia to the East and north
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Ozzie guy
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Re: The outcome of Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022-202..

Post by Ozzie guy »

I think Ukraine is hellbent on never surrendering so victory for ether Russia or Ukraine will be decisive.
Vakanai
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Re: The outcome of Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022-202..

Post by Vakanai »

Ozzie guy wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 3:15 am I think Ukraine is hellbent on never surrendering so victory for ether Russia or Ukraine will be decisive.
Good for them, they shouldn't surrender.
Sadly Putin is hellbent on victory at any cost.
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funkervogt
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Re: The outcome of Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022-202..

Post by funkervogt »

This article describes what I think is the likely scenario for the end of the Ukraine War.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia- ... ult-2022-5

Russia takes over some more land in eastern and perhaps southern Ukraine (where Russian-speakers are in the majority) and then declares victory. In spite of their anger and desire to take back their lost territory, the Ukrainians simply lack the strength to push the Russian troops out--after months of war, their economy will be wrecked, their troops will be exhausted, and the Russians will have natural defensive advantages against them. Arrivals of donated weapons from the West will not give Ukraine enough of a military advantage to kick out the Russians.

The Western coalition against Russia will start to fracture for various reasons, and poor countries affected by rising food and fertilizer prices (and perhaps famine and riots) will put growing pressure on both sides to end the war. Ukraine will begrudgingly sign a cease-fire with Russia, the fighting will stop, and both countries will start exporting grain and fertilizer again, though heavy sanctions in other areas will stay in place against Russia.
warpmass
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Re: The outcome of Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022-202..

Post by warpmass »

The question is how many people will die.
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Water
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Re: The outcome of Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022-202..

Post by Water »

2) Russia's Pyrrhic victory (Russia controls Crimea and Donbass but nothing else)
I wouldn't really go so far as to consider it a pyrrhic victory - especially when I compare it to examples of pyrrhic victories in history books, where the victory meant having won something that's hardly worth anything.

Sure, Russia has wasted way more lives and resources than they planned in order to get an entire country, and they didn't get said entire country. But completing a land bridge to the black sea and all the rich resources in its path.. that's worth a lot. It's also worth enough for many to consider Putin's barbaric military aggression a winning move, quite possibly inspiring other loony leaders out there just itching for modern conquest.

The world is in dire need of a long overdue, strong message that it no longer pays to try and relay borders through devious colonization (Crimea) or sheer military force (Donbass). And I fear that Russia managing to root their feet into the Donbass region could stall that message for decades to come.

My source of optimism in this is how Russia has lost any nuance that keeps them from their reputation as the bad guys. That, and I believe it's an inevitable thing for people to ultimately desire democracy and humanism. In a time of fast and free information, it's easy for anyone to get a taste of that. The Russian regime (or the Taliban, or any Shariah government for that matter) can intimidate and kill until they've used up the last ruble to delay the natural progression of civilization through chaos, but they'll never win against time.
I still think the microwave is the most sci fi invention so far.
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Certain Russian user
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Re: The outcome of Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022-202..

Post by Certain Russian user »

funkervogt wrote: Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:14 pm This article describes what I think is the likely scenario for the end of the Ukraine War.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia- ... ult-2022-5
I can agree with nearly everything you've quoted above. Except:
funkervogt wrote: Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:14 pm ...after months of war, their economy will be wrecked, their troops will be exhausted... Ukraine will begrudgingly sign a cease-fire with Russia...
This is based on the assumption that Ukrainian elite are those making decisions. They are not. The ceasefire only depends on the strategy of Ukraine's real masters in Washington, London or Brussels. If they decide enough is enough - Ukraine will surrender. If, however, they'll consider that an endless war with exchange of 20-50 thousand Ukrainian lives for 1-2 thousand Russian ones monthly worth it - then, I assure you, "Ukraine" will "decide" to fight and will "proudly" refuse any negotiations no matter what. In your Western media, probably, this will be portrayed as "unprecedented manifestation of the Spirit of Freedom", or some other pompous nonsense like that. And only a very few will understand this is not at all about freedom, but quite the opposite.

One way or another, "the writing is on the wall already" as one man here said. And they'd better surrender as soon as possible, this is in their own interests.
We are few, and the enemy is strong, but God is not in power, but in truth. Some with weapons, and others on horseback, but we call on the name of the Lord our God; they were defeated and fell, but we stood and stand straight.
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caltrek
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Re: The outcome of Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022-202..

Post by caltrek »

Certain Russian user wrote: Fri Jun 10, 2022 5:52 pm
funkervogt wrote: Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:14 pm This article describes what I think is the likely scenario for the end of the Ukraine War.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia- ... ult-2022-5
I can agree with nearly everything you've quoted above. Except:
funkervogt wrote: Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:14 pm ...after months of war, their economy will be wrecked, their troops will be exhausted... Ukraine will begrudgingly sign a cease-fire with Russia...
This is based on the assumption that Ukrainian elite are those making decisions. They are not. The ceasefire only depends on the strategy of Ukraine's real masters in Washington, London or Brussels.
I didn't agree with that analysis. It is a (probably intended) insult to Ukraine. and not an otherwise accurate description. Washington, London, and Brussels may be allied with Ukraine, but that hardly makes them their "masters." Even the alternative suggested, that elites rule over Ukraine in the same sense that royalty ruled over their citizens, is highly misleading. Elites are making decisions, but it seems abundantly clear that they are largely supported by Ukrainians in those decisions. Said Ukrainians do not want to be ruled by Russia. Instead they are struggling toward democratic rule. Those on the extreme left may sneer at this democracy as "bourgeois democracy", but clearly even that is far more democratic than anything that Russia has to offer, at least while Putin remains in charge. I don't expect you to agree with that, but I don't see the point in letting your opinion stand without being challenged.
If they decide enough is enough - Ukraine will surrender. If, however, they'll consider that an endless war with exchange of 20-50 thousand Ukrainian lives for 1-2 thousand Russian ones monthly worth it - then, I assure you, "Ukraine" will "decide" to fight and will "proudly" refuse any negotiations no matter what. In your Western media, probably, this will be portrayed as "unprecedented manifestation of the Spirit of Freedom", or some other pompous nonsense like that. And only a very few will understand this is not at all about freedom, but quite the opposite.

One way or another, "the writing is on the wall already" as one man here said. And they'd better surrender as soon as possible, this is in their own interests.
Again, it is not "pompous nonsense." With all due respect, it is your analysis which contains nothing but "pompous nonsense." It is not in their interest to be Putin's slaves, or be subject to his genocidal whims. At best, their surrender might save the lives of a few Russian soldiers, and that is all.

So, if you consider Ukraine part of Russia, then this is a civil war. Putin's strategy was to divide and conquer, to get elements in the West to fight with each other. Instead they are becoming more united by the day in resisting Putin, while you folks have plunged into civil war. Even as more and more sophisticated weapons are poring into Ukrainian hands in their struggle to be free. You may dismiss this as empty rhetoric (as opposed to analysis) but you do so at your own country's peril.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
Doozer
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Re: The outcome of Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022-202..

Post by Doozer »

Regardless of whether or not it actually ends with a phyrric victory on Russia's behalf, we're all screwed either ways.
warpmass
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Re: The outcome of Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022-202..

Post by warpmass »

Doozer wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 6:23 am Regardless of whether or not it actually ends with a phyrric victory on Russia's behalf, we're all screwed either ways.
Why do you say that?
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