2050 predictions

[funkervogt]

By 2050, non-Hispanic whites will become a minority in the U.S.
https://apnews.com/article/growth-popul ... ba5d7cdade

[funkervogt]

How 2050 will be different from today:
-Plausible (40%+ chance) that true AGI will exist.
-Even if AGI has not yet been invented, narrow AIs will be vastly better than they are today and will perform countless niche tasks better and cheaper than humans. Many of them will be paired with robot bodies.
-Servers that power AIs of all types will commonly have processing and memory specs that exceed the human brain's many times over.
-Very convincing androids will exist, but will be few in number compared to non-android robots.
-MAJOR changes to the job market will have happened. Categories of professions (e.g. - computer programmer, lawyer, landscaper) will be 99% automated, with only the most talented and hardworking humans holding the remaining positions in them.
-Life expectancy will be at least five years greater for people who take good care of themselves (e.g. - when factoring out the people who have bad health due to poor lifestyle choices like overeating and drug use).
-The richest person in the world will have more than $1 trillion. We will speak of "trillionaires."
-AR and VR technology will be mature, affordable, and highly immersive.
-China is strong enough to defeat the U.S. in a war over Taiwan.

[funkervogt]

-I think some kind of American secession crisis before this date is entirely possible. I can't really see how a civil war would work, though I confess I'm no expert on the subject.

As an American, I think the likeliest cause would be a disputed election result. Imagine a replay of the 2020 election, but with there being just enough evidence for Trump's claims of "rigging" to be non-dismissible in the minds of average citizens and the courts. In other words, what if his claims could not be proven or disproven either way?

If neither candidate yielded, it would be disastrous. We'd have two separate inaugurations and an immediate political crisis as states and cities ignored the orders given by the candidate they disliked. If military forces loyal to both sides both got control over some of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, there would be no way for one to defeat the other and the schism would persist.

[Bird]

-I think some kind of American secession crisis before this date is entirely possible. I can't really see how a civil war would work, though I confess I'm no expert on the subject.

As an American, I think the likeliest cause would be a disputed election result. Imagine a replay of the 2020 election, but with there being just enough evidence for Trump's claims of "rigging" to be non-dismissible in the minds of average citizens and the courts. In other words, what if his claims could not be proven or disproven either way?

If neither candidate yielded, it would be disastrous. We'd have two separate inaugurations and an immediate political crisis as states and cities ignored the orders given by the candidate they disliked. If military forces loyal to both sides both got control over some of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, there would be no way for one to defeat the other and the schism would persist.

True, everything you've written there is plausible. I can now, in fact, see how a civil war/other crisis like this would work.
I hope for the US's sake that doesn't happen. Will be nervously following this year's election from across the ocean.

[Tadasuke]

People are (unfortunately) quite often crazy and stupid. I tried to reason multiple times with my old, Trump-loving conspiracy theorist. He's so sure his sources are correct, that I cannot possibly convince him of anything he doesn't already believe in at this point. I severed all connections with people I talked only on Facebook. I am 100% fed up with wasting time like that. He's not even a U.S. citizen (although he legally lived there for some time). He practiced survival, martial arts and shooting, in the case he had to fight evil "socialist collectivists". He's a nice, creative and funny guy in person (in real life). Whatever. I'm not spending even an additional minute on politics. Just no. Only in video games.

GDP and population tend to grow despite serious problems, stupidity, wars, epidemics and very bad politicians.

Real World GDP and World Population between 1750 and 2000, GDP growth hugely accelerated in the 1950s:


GDP per capita (inflation adjusted) on Earth between 1900 and 2000 quadrupled:


GDP per capita in Russia octupled between 1880 and 1980 despite all the things that happened:

[Tadasuke]

My prediction is that world population in 2030 will be 8.5 billion and world GDP PPP will be approximately 2 times higher than in 2010 (when Earth's human population was 7 billion). In 2050, world population will be 10 billion and world GDP PPP will be 2x higher than in 2030 and 4x higher than in 2010 when it was 2x higher than in 1990 when world population was 5.3 billion.

Computers will be actually intelligent and smart by 2050. Autonomous vehicles and bipedal robots will be not science-fiction anymore, but daily life to some degree. People will wear AR glasses almost every day. Processors for AI will be extremely popular and widespread by 2050. Nuclear Fusion will be used commercially on a large scale, solar and wind will provide at least 50% of world's electricity. Cars and bipedal or quadrupedal robots will run exclusively on electricity, with batteries being 5x better in every way than the best of 2024 (probably Cybertruck has the best right now).

People will usually work 6 hours 5 days per week or 8 hours 4 days per week. Working 10 hours 5 days per week or 8 hours 6 days per week will be a thing of the past, because of better productivity and efficiency. People on average will have 10 years longer life expectancy than in 2024.

Largest cruise ships will be 400 meters long and 350 000 tons. Largest container ships will be 500 meters long and 400 000 tons. They will be fully controlled by computers and AI. Super-yachts will be very luxurious, 100% electric, will use solar panels with ~50% efficiency.

Highest building in the world will be 1200 meters in height. There will be 10 buildings above 700 meters in height and 100 buildings above 500 meters in height. 200 meters high buildings won't even be impressive anymore. Anything below 400 meters will seem mundane. Eiffel Tower will still stand, will be opened to tourists from all nationalities, but won't be as impressive as it used to be, as there will be multiple 400-450 meters high skyscrapers in Paris (and other European capitals) by then. USA will have one building 1 kilometer in height (to prove they are still great). One World Trade Center won't be highest in NYC anymore.

There will be a suspension bridge between Sicily and Calabria (The Strait of Messina Bridge), bridge between the coasts of Djibouti and Yemen (Two Horns Bridge), bridge between the Strait of Tiran (linking Egypt and Saudi Arabia), bridge between Sumatra and Java (Sunda Strait Bridge), bridge over the Congo River (Brazzaville–Kinshasa Bridge) and a bridge linking Danish island Falster with Rostock in Germany.

There will be a tunnel under the Grimsel Pass in Switzerland, tunnel linking Maurienne in France with Susa Valley in Italy (Mont d'Ambin Base Tunnel), tunnel linking Innsbruck in Austria with Franzensfeste in Italy (Brenner Base Tunnel), road and rail tunnel connecting Denmark with Germany (Fehmarnbelt) and 22.1 km long highway Tianshan Shengli Tunnel in China under the remote Tianshan Mountains at an altitude of 3.2 km.

New roads, better larger airports and harbors, railways, tunnels and bridges will make human and cargo transportation in 2050 better and faster. Cars will be quieter, safer, cooler-looking and more efficient than today. Driving an inefficient car by yourself will be seen as stupid, retrograde, retarded and completely out of fashion (there will be VR racing video games for that).

Global warming will have its multiple negative effects on the planet, but humans will be doing this and that to reduce its impact. Human endeavors will partially succeed with mitigating how serious climate change will be, especially for humans themselves. One of the more obvious things are air conditioning units powered by Sun, wind, waves, fission and fusion, or producing food in ways which are more resistant to changes in climate.