2050 predictions

Discuss the evolution of human culture, economics and politics in the decades and centuries ahead
Post Reply
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 13575
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: Essex, UK
Contact:

2050 predictions

Post by wjfox »

What do you imagine the world will be like in 2050 – economically, culturally, and geopolitically?

Please give me your (realistic) predictions.

I may use some of them to update our 2050 entry on the timeline. :)
User avatar
Ozzie guy
Posts: 527
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:40 pm

Re: 2050 predictions

Post by Ozzie guy »

I know you want things for the timeline but in honesty I think we are in the end game.

"The singularity is near" is now a statement that actually rings true and I don't think we can predict past the point of human level AGI.

Progress is so fast that I someone who held on to predictions most often Yuli's as an extreme cope for years could not believe Yuli a week or two ago when he said AI would get 3 magnitudes better this year even after he said some things to me. Now just a week or two later I have been one two punched out by google releasing Proto AGI and a legitimate source saying GPT-4 is significantly better than expected and about to release in a week.

If you were to personify AI improvement an analogy might be the average person is prime Arnold Schwarzenegger and the AI is an anorexic that is about to hit the gym 3 times a week but unknown to almost everyone it has a superpower of having no maximum potential.
weatheriscool
Posts: 24482
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm
Contact:

Re: 2050 predictions

Post by weatheriscool »

Looking at developments in the United states tells me to hold onto our asses as things could get very ugly. The GOP states are becoming fascist craphoels that is literally banning freedom and books as we speak. Our only hope is for Biden to win but I fear that within the next 10-15 years we're going to probably have some extreme violence. I wouldn't be surprised if a secession movement occurs and this country heads into civil war of some short.

I don't believe nasa will get back to mars within the next 20 years. Elon musk is too focused on advancing the very ills of our society instead of focusing on issues of science as he use. Sadly, this could lead to banishment of a lot of the good things in this country that could come medically in the next 20-30 years. I also expect a collapse of the middle class which would also limit who can and who can't enjoy the tech.


Europe and asia will probably fair much better and will probably enjoy unbelievable advancements.
User avatar
erowind
Posts: 576
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 5:42 am

Re: 2050 predictions

Post by erowind »

Assuming the singularity isn't happening, with or without AGI a lot of the world will start looking more like this including now developed nations. AGI alone will not stop the ecological crises, that's something we as people have to desire to do, especially if we misalign AGI's priorities and feed it bad data.



The timeframe of peak oil predictions have been somewhat off as predicting exact timeframes for these sorts of things is rather speculative. Even so, the core reasoning is true. Oil and other fossil fuels aren't just wreaking ecological havoc, their energy return on investment is genuinely decreasing rapidly. There are still going to be places of high consumption though they will become rarer and rarer overtime. In the long term an equilibrium will be reached eventually, hopefully wars don't make life even more challenging than it has to be this century.

This future is not depressing, it's only sad if one cares for consumer life. I look forward to fresh air, organic food and quiet streets where the shrill hell of an overabundance of internal combustion engines are fading into memory. If we're smart about the coming societal transition we needn't give up high technology like MRI machines or computers either. In reality if our priorities are merely aligned to ecological and human need there will still be plenty of resources available for scientific progress and true quality of life improvement. Degrowth and sustainability doesn't need to mean luddism even though these concepts are conflated much of the time.
Last edited by erowind on Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
ººº
Posts: 359
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2022 3:54 am

Re: 2050 predictions

Post by ººº »

erowind wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:44 am This future is not depressing, it's only sad if one cares for consumer life.
I'm more pessimistic although I believe that we will recover after a century, definitively in two.
User avatar
Bird
Posts: 55
Joined: Sun May 22, 2022 11:43 am

Re: 2050 predictions

Post by Bird »

Already some very interesting responses here.
I'm still not sure I buy into the whole singularity thing. That said, I can't see any future where AI is not widespread and transformative in some ways.
Since this thread is about "Culture, Economics and Politics", I will focus my answer away from specific technologies.

-Many countries have at least trialled some form of UBI. Unless the pace of automation is slower than I expect, I would think there is a permanent UBI (or something like that) in some countries by 2050. Given the USA's aversion to anything vaguely socialist, they adopt this sort of thing later than most Western countries, though eventually follow suit. It is by no means a universal thing in 2050, though, and this economic "transition" is not equally felt across the world.

-One can probably expect self-driving cars to be common by now. For a cultural prediction, I think the number of people who prefer to drive cars themselves will be larger than expected, particularly among the elderly (who at this point are mostly Gen X). Anyone who grows up with it as normal won't want anything different.

-I think some kind of American secession crisis before this date is entirely possible. I can't really see how a civil war would work, though I confess I'm no expert on the subject.

-Australia has, at some point before this, held a successful referendum to become a republic (if the government don't f*ck it up like the last time.)

-The youth of this time period (Born 2025-2035 or so) will think we were crazy for a lot of different things. I think one of the biggest things they'll go "WTF" at is how much plastic was used in nearly everything. They will also criticise us for things none of us predicted that were only stupid/bad in hindsight.

I don't have too much more to say (because A. I like to focus on future technologies and B. Predicting the future is hard lol)
I'm just a bird who escapes his cage to post here sometimes.
Solaris
Posts: 16
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:21 pm

Re: 2050 predictions

Post by Solaris »

The singularity won't arrive before 2050. After an AGI is created world leaders will attempt to block progress out of fear of what a singularity might have of consequences to humanity and society.

Most of the workforce has been automated now with the few people left being people that does not have their primary work done through a computer (health care workers, electricians etc.), and will earn a lot more than those occupations have given historically. The transition to UBI is painful and with many errors along the way. First is a situation in which UBI is not implemented as there is still enough people in the workforce. Those automated by AI will enter into either poverty in many western countries or taking on a lower waged job than before (but the supply of those are few so only a fraction makes it through), as governments fail to provide a safety net to so many people. As almost everyone gets automated, the government sees no way out and implements UBI (which will vary in size depending on the country). To make sure those not automated continue to work as previously, every automated citizen (below 50 years) is assigned to a fake job that doesn't exist, and will have to perform minimal effort to be rewarded the monthly UBI check. Capitalism is still present in almost every western state (Denmark, Norway or Sweden might be exceptions), so the Lower class will be dominated by people on UBI, which were not able to prepare economically for an automated future. This will include people who were once wealthy before automation, but didn't keep a large enough buffer due to unhealthy consumption patterns. Things like the stock market will not exist as the mechanisms surrounding it are useless in an AGI world. Instead the upper class are a group of people that are able to generate capital accumulations through mechanisms that do not exist as of today. It will be a closed entry, and the common factor of the upper class is that they had enough capital to begin with to enter this closed loop.

Two kinds of people will exist. Those who live in the real world, and those who live in the artificial world. The age of the person will be one factor, but primarily economic situation. Wealthy people will largely continue to live in the real world, while poor people will choose to live in the fake world. FIVR will exist, but the rules in the real world will be translated into the fake world. NPC's will therefore have human rights, and if violated the person can be prosecuted in the real world for actions done in the fake world. The appeal to engage in the fake world would be to live a richer life than in the real world. But since it's a capitalist society, much of UBI would be used for expenses in the fake world. The implementation is a somewhat better life than in the real world, but not the size of those in the upper class. A few people will choose to not live in any of those scenarios but instead migrate to the few countries that has not automated the work force. This will be countries outside of the West, which due to too much instability was not able to progress further, and instead choose to embrace the old rules. There will be work, but those countries will when the century ends feel like the middle age compared to those that embraced AGI and later ASI (and likely those countries will just be absorbed eventually by those that won the century).

Maybe I should just write a sci-fi novel.
User avatar
lechwall
Posts: 79
Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2023 3:39 pm

Re: 2050 predictions

Post by lechwall »

I think we're past the singularity at this point if so it wouldn't be fanciful to suggest topics such as global warming has been fully reversed if this is the case as solving the issue is mainly an intelligence problem. We know how to fix the problem in broad terms replace fossil fuels with renewables and remove excess greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We even have some prototype technologies which even without AI assistance will solve the problem such as fusion and artificial trees just maybe not in timescales to prevent catastrophic damage by just relying on human intellect alone.
With AI helping us get to the end point quicker who's to say it can't help us design a commercially viable fusion reactor and effective greenhouse scrubbers in no time at all.
Astrada
Posts: 2
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2024 11:19 pm

Re: 2050 predictions

Post by Astrada »

Post modern civilization destruction.
User avatar
funkervogt
Posts: 1365
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm

Re: 2050 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

erowind wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:44 am Assuming the singularity isn't happening, with or without AGI a lot of the world will start looking more like this including now developed nations. AGI alone will not stop the ecological crises, that's something we as people have to desire to do, especially if we misalign AGI's priorities and feed it bad data.



The timeframe of peak oil predictions have been somewhat off as predicting exact timeframes for these sorts of things is rather speculative. Even so, the core reasoning is true. Oil and other fossil fuels aren't just wreaking ecological havoc, their energy return on investment is genuinely decreasing rapidly. There are still going to be places of high consumption though they will become rarer and rarer overtime. In the long term an equilibrium will be reached eventually, hopefully wars don't make life even more challenging than it has to be this century.

This future is not depressing, it's only sad if one cares for consumer life. I look forward to fresh air, organic food and quiet streets where the shrill hell of an overabundance of internal combustion engines are fading into memory. If we're smart about the coming societal transition we needn't give up high technology like MRI machines or computers either. In reality if our priorities are merely aligned to ecological and human need there will still be plenty of resources available for scientific progress and true quality of life improvement. Degrowth and sustainability doesn't need to mean luddism even though these concepts are conflated much of the time.
By 2050, there will be cheap, battery-powered robots that can manage backyard gardens better than humans. Even if Peak Oil has happened and energy is very expensive, it will still make sense to have the robots do this type of work.
User avatar
funkervogt
Posts: 1365
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm

Re: 2050 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

By 2050, non-Hispanic whites will become a minority in the U.S.
https://apnews.com/article/growth-popul ... ba5d7cdade
User avatar
funkervogt
Posts: 1365
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm

Re: 2050 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

How 2050 will be different from today:
-Plausible (40%+ chance) that true AGI will exist.
-Even if AGI has not yet been invented, narrow AIs will be vastly better than they are today and will perform countless niche tasks better and cheaper than humans. Many of them will be paired with robot bodies.
-Servers that power AIs of all types will commonly have processing and memory specs that exceed the human brain's many times over.
-Very convincing androids will exist, but will be few in number compared to non-android robots.
-MAJOR changes to the job market will have happened. Categories of professions (e.g. - computer programmer, lawyer, landscaper) will be 99% automated, with only the most talented and hardworking humans holding the remaining positions in them.
-Life expectancy will be at least five years greater for people who take good care of themselves (e.g. - when factoring out the people who have bad health due to poor lifestyle choices like overeating and drug use).
-The richest person in the world will have more than $1 trillion. We will speak of "trillionaires."
-AR and VR technology will be mature, affordable, and highly immersive.
-China is strong enough to defeat the U.S. in a war over Taiwan.
User avatar
funkervogt
Posts: 1365
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm

Re: 2050 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

-I think some kind of American secession crisis before this date is entirely possible. I can't really see how a civil war would work, though I confess I'm no expert on the subject.
As an American, I think the likeliest cause would be a disputed election result. Imagine a replay of the 2020 election, but with there being just enough evidence for Trump's claims of "rigging" to be non-dismissible in the minds of average citizens and the courts. In other words, what if his claims could not be proven or disproven either way?

If neither candidate yielded, it would be disastrous. We'd have two separate inaugurations and an immediate political crisis as states and cities ignored the orders given by the candidate they disliked. If military forces loyal to both sides both got control over some of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, there would be no way for one to defeat the other and the schism would persist.
User avatar
Bird
Posts: 55
Joined: Sun May 22, 2022 11:43 am

Re: 2050 predictions

Post by Bird »

funkervogt wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2024 6:49 pm
-I think some kind of American secession crisis before this date is entirely possible. I can't really see how a civil war would work, though I confess I'm no expert on the subject.
As an American, I think the likeliest cause would be a disputed election result. Imagine a replay of the 2020 election, but with there being just enough evidence for Trump's claims of "rigging" to be non-dismissible in the minds of average citizens and the courts. In other words, what if his claims could not be proven or disproven either way?

If neither candidate yielded, it would be disastrous. We'd have two separate inaugurations and an immediate political crisis as states and cities ignored the orders given by the candidate they disliked. If military forces loyal to both sides both got control over some of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, there would be no way for one to defeat the other and the schism would persist.
True, everything you've written there is plausible. I can now, in fact, see how a civil war/other crisis like this would work.
I hope for the US's sake that doesn't happen. Will be nervously following this year's election from across the ocean.
I'm just a bird who escapes his cage to post here sometimes.
Tadasuke

politics and economy

Post by Tadasuke »

People are (unfortunately) quite often crazy and stupid. I tried to reason multiple times with my old, Trump-loving conspiracy theorist. He's so sure his sources are correct, that I cannot possibly convince him of anything he doesn't already believe in at this point. I severed all connections with people I talked only on Facebook. I am 100% fed up with wasting time like that. He's not even a U.S. citizen (although he legally lived there for some time). He practiced survival, martial arts and shooting, in the case he had to fight evil "socialist collectivists". He's a nice, creative and funny guy in person (in real life). Whatever. I'm not spending even an additional minute on politics. Just no. Only in video games.

GDP and population tend to grow despite serious problems, stupidity, wars, epidemics and very bad politicians.

Real World GDP and World Population between 1750 and 2000, GDP growth hugely accelerated in the 1950s:
Image

GDP per capita (inflation adjusted) on Earth between 1900 and 2000 quadrupled:
Image

GDP per capita in Russia octupled between 1880 and 1980 despite all the things that happened:
Image
Tadasuke

my predictions for 2050

Post by Tadasuke »

My prediction is that world population in 2030 will be 8.5 billion and world GDP PPP will be approximately 2 times higher than in 2010 (when Earth's human population was 7 billion). In 2050, world population will be 10 billion and world GDP PPP will be 2x higher than in 2030 and 4x higher than in 2010 when it was 2x higher than in 1990 when world population was 5.3 billion.

Computers will be actually intelligent and smart by 2050. Autonomous vehicles and bipedal robots will be not science-fiction anymore, but daily life to some degree. People will wear AR glasses almost every day. Processors for AI will be extremely popular and widespread by 2050. Nuclear Fusion will be used commercially on a large scale, solar and wind will provide at least 50% of world's electricity. Cars and bipedal or quadrupedal robots will run exclusively on electricity, with batteries being 5x better in every way than the best of 2024 (probably Cybertruck has the best right now).

People will usually work 6 hours 5 days per week or 8 hours 4 days per week. Working 10 hours 5 days per week or 8 hours 6 days per week will be a thing of the past, because of better productivity and efficiency. People on average will have 10 years longer life expectancy than in 2024.

Largest cruise ships will be 400 meters long and 350 000 tons. Largest container ships will be 500 meters long and 400 000 tons. They will be fully controlled by computers and AI. Super-yachts will be very luxurious, 100% electric, will use solar panels with ~50% efficiency.

Highest building in the world will be 1200 meters in height. There will be 10 buildings above 700 meters in height and 100 buildings above 500 meters in height. 200 meters high buildings won't even be impressive anymore. Anything below 400 meters will seem mundane. Eiffel Tower will still stand, will be opened to tourists from all nationalities, but won't be as impressive as it used to be, as there will be multiple 400-450 meters high skyscrapers in Paris (and other European capitals) by then. USA will have one building 1 kilometer in height (to prove they are still great). One World Trade Center won't be highest in NYC anymore.

There will be a suspension bridge between Sicily and Calabria (The Strait of Messina Bridge), bridge between the coasts of Djibouti and Yemen (Two Horns Bridge), bridge between the Strait of Tiran (linking Egypt and Saudi Arabia), bridge between Sumatra and Java (Sunda Strait Bridge), bridge over the Congo River (Brazzaville–Kinshasa Bridge) and a bridge linking Danish island Falster with Rostock in Germany.

There will be a tunnel under the Grimsel Pass in Switzerland, tunnel linking Maurienne in France with Susa Valley in Italy (Mont d'Ambin Base Tunnel), tunnel linking Innsbruck in Austria with Franzensfeste in Italy (Brenner Base Tunnel), road and rail tunnel connecting Denmark with Germany (Fehmarnbelt) and 22.1 km long highway Tianshan Shengli Tunnel in China under the remote Tianshan Mountains at an altitude of 3.2 km.

New roads, better larger airports and harbors, railways, tunnels and bridges will make human and cargo transportation in 2050 better and faster. Cars will be quieter, safer, cooler-looking and more efficient than today. Driving an inefficient car by yourself will be seen as stupid, retrograde, retarded and completely out of fashion (there will be VR racing video games for that).

Global warming will have its multiple negative effects on the planet, but humans will be doing this and that to reduce its impact. Human endeavors will partially succeed with mitigating how serious climate change will be, especially for humans themselves. One of the more obvious things are air conditioning units powered by Sun, wind, waves, fission and fusion, or producing food in ways which are more resistant to changes in climate.
Doozer
Posts: 77
Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:02 am

Re: 2050 predictions

Post by Doozer »

I imagine generative AI technology will be perfected around this time. It will have become the main driving force of the entertainment industry.
User avatar
Powers
Posts: 1183
Joined: Fri Apr 07, 2023 7:32 pm
Location: a.k.a Lurking, Member, Lorem Ipsum, ..., --- and ººº.

Re: 2050 predictions

Post by Powers »

Doozer wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 9:01 pm I imagine generative AI technology will be perfected around this time. It will have become the main driving force of the entertainment industry.
This but in the 30's.
Post Reply