Poke holes in my prediction that Russia will Invade the Baltic States in 2027-2028?

[superfishy]

Prediction: Russia will begin the invasion of the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) in the 2027-2028 timeframe.

Abstract: At the time of writing, unprecedented events have taken place on the world stage. President Trump seems to be acting on behalf of Russia in its war against Ukraine by seemingly pressuring Ukraine into complete capitulation to Russia’s demands while not pressuring Russia to make any concessions in return whatsoever. Additionally, Trump is beginning to undermine the perception that NATO’s Article 5 is a legitimate deterrent and may even lead the US in leaving NATO altogether. The United States’ increasingly isolationist and even adversarial geopolitical stance towards its NATO allies is opening a window of opportunity for Putin to continue his expansionist intentions towards the strategically important Baltic region.

At this time, it is likely that the hostilities in Ukraine will cease altogether by the end of 2025. During the over 3 year duration of this war, Russia has effectively transitioned into a wartime economy, and as such, will rely on continued military operations in order to not feel the economic pressure to return to a peacetime economy. There is a favorable window opening for Russia in which the United States has effectively abandoned its European allies and has potentially mortally wounded NATO as an effective alliance. Meanwhile, Europe is woefully behind in having a self-sufficient military organization or industrial complex capable of filling the many gaps in defense left by an absent United States. This advantage for Russia, however, will begin to rapidly diminish the longer it waits as European states organize and arm. Another reason I place the invasion of the Baltic states in the 2027-2028 timeframe is the possibility of a new hawkish US president coming into office in early 2029 who may restore the integrity of NATO and Article 5, eliminating this critical Russian advantage gifted to them by president Trump.

In the period leading up to and following this invasion, I expect nuclear proliferation to sweep across Europe and the globe, particularly in Poland, Germany, Turkiye, Sweden, and Finland.

The Invasion: I predict that the Russian invasion of the Baltics will take place in two phases: 1) The invasion of Lithuania and 2) the invasion of Estonia and Latvia.

Stage One - There are three primary reasons why I believe Lithuania will be targeted first: 1) Control of Lithuania will connect the Russian exclave, Kaliningrad, to the Russian heartland through Belarus, which will act as an extension of Russia during this operation (and may be formally annexed into Russia by this time). Existing forces in Kaliningrad will allow Russia to perform a pincer movement against Lithuanian forces from the East, West, and South. 2) The Lithuanian capital and center of government, Vilnius lies less than 30 km from the Belarusian border which will act as the staging ground for Russian ground forces. This small distance will simplify the military objectives of decapitating the government and military leadership of Lithuania. 3) Taking control of Lithuania will cut off Estonia and Latvia from Polish/NATO forces to the South, priming the theatre for stage two.

Stage Two - I predict stage two of the invasion to consist of simultaneous land, sea, and air operations of both Estonia and Latvia from southern staging grounds in Lithuania and Belarus as well as eastern staging grounds in Russia. Riga and Tallinn, being coastal capitals, are left vulnerable to simultaneous bombardment and amphibious assault from the Russian Baltic naval fleet.

Conclusion: The invasion of the Baltic states by Russia will act as a bluff call on NATO’s Article 5, if the alliance exists at all by this point. The original purpose of NATO lies in its deterrence capability and the minute Article 5 is invoked in a situation such as this, the alliance has failed. In my opinion, It is unlikely that the remaining members of NATO will initiate a nuclear exchange with Russia over this invasion, and any remaining perception of NATO as a functional alliance will finally crumble. Despite this opinion, this moment will be the closest society comes to nuclear annihilation since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

[funkervogt]

Russia's military and economy have been so strained by the Ukraine War that it won't be able to risk a potentially costly invasion of another country for more than three years.

[erowind]

Russia's military and economy have been so strained by the Ukraine War that it won't be able to risk a potentially costly invasion of another country for more than three years.

Russia's war economy is actually doing really well. GDP is rising, unemployment is low, and wages are rising even for the poor. Inflation has been sticky but Russia has also found customers for its LNG and oil despite the sanctions. Russia's technology sector and military equipment are increasingly reliant on Chinese imports though which is a weakness. Ironically when Russia stops fighting the war and state subsidies stop flowing into the economy it will face weakness and likely some moderate term crises.

https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/ ... -years-on/

This all said, I don't expect Russia to invade the Baltics and think that European nationalists are beating their chests and manufacturing consent for greater military spending and nationalism.

[Vakanai]

Without outside intervention like Putin's ally/puppet President Trump, Russia won't even be able to reach anything they could call a "success" in Ukraine by 2027/28. Heck, Putin was recently so desperate for manpower to toss into the meat grinder of war he cut a deal for North Korean soldiers. Meanwhile their unlawful invasion of Ukraine has frightened the Baltic States so much they've been more heavily investing in their own military and defense, putting them in a stronger position than Ukraine was in when Russia invaded. So it would be a much weaker Russia relying mostly on Chinese imports, mercenaries to supplement their vastly dwindled soldier numbers, trying to invade a country or countries currently more capable than Ukraine which outside some Trumped up "deal" could easily continue to challenge Russia's invading forces for a few more years.

I'm not saying Russia won't invade eventually, because they're almost guaranteed to for as long as Putin and his dreams of reclaiming the former Soviet territories lives, but no matter how badly he wants to he just won't be able to do so this decade. To try would be to accept that inevitably he'll be defeated, and perhaps push his country to such a breaking point on of his oligarchs or generals finally murder him and claim Russia for themselves.

Now, an invasion some time in the 2030's is incredibly likely...

[firestar464]

Russia will have failed by their own metrics- they will have failed to puppet Ukraine and take all the territories it desires (their original justification for the invasion)

[Vakanai]

Russia will have failed by their own metrics- they will have failed to puppet Ukraine and take all the territories it desires (their original justification for the invasion)

Agreed, but unscrupulous leaders like Putin have no trouble going back on their own words and spinning something as a "success" despite being a failure by their own stated goals. People like that loathe to ever admit failure.

[BasilBerylium]

[...] and any remaining perception of NATO as a functional alliance will finally crumble. Despite this opinion, this moment will be the closest society comes to nuclear annihilation since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

A very hard hit for sure but I don't see the rest of Europe and even America letting Russia go through Poland and then Germany either.

[Alric]

I without a doubt think that Russia would like to do this, but I don't think they are capable. Russia is in a forever war with Ukraine, that they can't end and can never win. I don't think Russia can beat Ukraine, even if the US started supplying Russia with weapons. The US would have to go boots on the ground in support of Russia, for Russia to win, and that is a really tough sell.

Some people will say Russia has a strong economy, but they had to switch to a full time war economy, just to deal with a country 30 times smaller than them, and they have made no real progress since the war started. They grabbed whatever they did in like the first month and been stuck there since. They do like brutal assaults, losing hundreds of thousands of men, to go like 5 miles in a year. At the current rate it will be 100 years before they 'win'.