Everything is not getting worse

[funkervogt]

unfortunately i suffered a drastic misunderstanding in how some ancient civilizations were complex similarly to ours

Which ones?

we are different in that we've been able to rely on fossil fuels and other inventions to keep us afloat, but how long are non-renewable energy sources are going to last at this rate?

Fossil fuel reserves are large enough to last as long as the world needs them. There's broad consensus that global oil consumption levels will plateau by the middle of this century before starting a gradual decline. Some even believe "Peak Oil Demand" will happen before 2030.
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/busin ... prices.pdf

At least in the U.S., natural gas demand will peak, possibly before the end of this decade, because renewables are getting cheaper.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020 ... mand-peak/

The amount of coal reserves is massive. It could last hundreds of years, though the environmental consequences would be very bad.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/coa ... s-left.php

I recommend reading the most recent posts from this website about recent improvements to solar and wind power. If they don't make you optimistic about the future of energy, nothing will.
https://rameznaam.com/blog/

[Tadasuke]

You are not going to convince me that things are getting worse, because my interest in futurism is to alleviate my depression and anxiety, not to further them. If I took your point of view, I would have to kill myself, because there is no point of waiting for a better tomorrow. I dislike the present, therefore the only encouragement is to live to see a better future, where I can finally be happy. I think that definitely most things are getting better, not worse.

[MythOfProgress]

You are not going to convince me that things are getting worse, because my interest in futurism is to alleviate my depression and anxiety, not to further them. If I took your point of view, I would have to kill myself, because there is no point of waiting for a better tomorrow. I dislike the present, therefore the only encouragement is to live to see a better future, where I can finally be happy. I think that definitely most things are getting better, not worse.

ok, i'm sorry if i come across as being too negative. if you are struggling with mental health issues or what im saying causes you distress you probably shouldn't listen to me anymore from now on, so look out for yourself- you matter more then you realize. i hope you get better with time and find other ways of being able to deal with your depression/anxiety, peace man.

[MythOfProgress]

Which ones?

ancient china, Greeks, Egyptians, Mayans and the Romans are some of the more notable examples that come to mind, Ancient China and whatnot with the printing press and gunpowder they utilized, Greeks with their sophisticated architecture, Egyptians and the notable pyramids they've built(while we do know of several ways that the could have built them, if i remember correctly most historians still haven't settled on one), Mayans with advanced agricultural techniques they used and the Ancient Romans with the aqueducts they used which made for easier public sanitation practices. keep in mind these are only just a few examples of the technologies they were able to develop at the time.

Fossil fuel reserves are large enough to last as long as the world needs them. There's broad consensus that global oil consumption levels will plateau by the middle of this century before starting a gradual decline. Some even believe "Peak Oil Demand" will happen before 2030.
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/busin ... prices.pdf

At least in the U.S., natural gas demand will peak, possibly before the end of this decade, because renewables are getting cheaper.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020 ... mand-peak/

yeah no, that's not happening anytime soon, as far as im concerned while renewable energies are a nice part of fighting against the energy crisis we have rested on our hands they are not even close to fulfilling most of the energy demands we have(which are only projected to increase as more advanced technologies come to light) considering the low energy efficiency, intermittent power generation and the fact that they are weather-dependent(which means in some days if the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing you might get little to no energy as a result) which makes for an inconsistent and unreliable source of energy. even with all the "improvements" you've mentioned, there's the other little problem of scaling it up and having the necessary materials(like lithium, the stuff they retrieve in cobalt mines), as building solar panels/farms and wind turbines require an extensive amount of space and resources to expend(never-mind the fact that you are still using fossil fuels to manufacture, transport and install these panels) .there's nuclear energy where we've made some decent amount of progress but still haven't solved the age-old problem of getting more energy out of it than you're putting in- which for the most part still eludes us. this old link explains better then i why they aren't going to help, at least not drastically. https://archive.ph/8P6ju

The amount of coal reserves is massive. It could last hundreds of years, though the environmental consequences would be very bad.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/coa ... s-left.php

wow, that's a huge understatement, it wouldn't just be "very bad", we are talking about a catastrophic level of damage done to the atmosphere. the way you say this makes it seem as if we live separately from the environment and won't be impacted by the consequences you speak of.

[R8Z]

This is a crucial idea to keep in mind when reading The Great Stagnation:

To get one misconception out of the way first: “stagnation” does not mean zero progress. No one is claiming that. There wasn’t zero progress even before the Industrial Revolution (or the civilizations of Europe and Asia would have looked no different in 1700 than they did in the days of nomadic hunter-gatherers, tens of thousands of years ago).

Stagnation just means slower progress. And not even slower than that pre-industrial era, but slower than, roughly, the late 1800s to mid-1900s, when growth rates are said to have peaked.

It's also useful to remember whenever you debate pessimists who are confusing a slowdown in progress in some area with a decline in that area.

I have finished reading the book this last weekend and the silver-lining I take from it is that the "low hanging fruit for development" argument is a solid one, at least it has convinced me to some extent. i.e. it it is a strong factor but not the whole picture of our modern world development path.

In other words, what the author says and what I agree with is that we are still progressing although in a slower speed. This is something that goes against my intuition as I am one of the privileged ones to have been highly benefited from the progress of the internet and the global connectivity, something that the author highlights that has not been for everyone.
Maybe I am just eating the low hanging fruits myself here in the 3rd world: for instance, my own company is completely based on remote working and global work; that's something I've been able to leverage for my own benefit and for my employees which makes me lucky to be able to afford to my employees amounts that reach 5x the local salary for similar positions due to that (and still taking a profit for myself with smiles all around, including for the ones paying these values).

Anyway, as the author highlights, there are still many low hanging fruits for developing countries to catch by basically following the footsteps of 1st world countries. I am looking for more as well to both develop my own region and provide to friends (employees) but also to get richer (and maybe happier?) myself. One step at a time to achieve a more equal world.

Here are some of the quotations from "The Great Stagnation (2011)" I've saved while reading, just to add to the thread (my GDP concerns from my early post were addressed):

[...] the marginal value of added government, even if positive, falls as government grows larger. This statement is not antigovernment; it's just common sense.

The larger the percentage of government consumption in the economy, the harder it is to tell exactly how well we are doing in real economic growth and living standards.

Have realistic expectations. We are living in "the new normal".

[Cyber_Rebel]

Feel like questions such as these are always relative, i.e., it's easy to do what @MOP is doing and fall into the trap of human pessimism if one does not remove their personal experiences from the overall picture.

Yes, even with the threat of war, climate crisis, and economic upheaval we're still much better off today than in the past. I also do not believe there has been any better point for historically disenfranchised groups like women & minorities than the current era. Some countries have shitty policies which feel as if progress is being rolled back or stagnated, but they are the exception. Bad outcomes still happen around the world, but we are improving the ways in which we respond and deal with them.

Technology and increased access to knowledge has without doubt improved our lives and will continue to make living better. This may have been posted already, but doing so again since it's relevant:

23 charts and maps that show the world is getting much, much better
These are bleak times — but a lot of things are improving.

[MythOfProgress]

Feel like questions such as these are always relative, i.e., it's easy to do what @MOP is doing and fall into the trap of human pessimism if one does not remove their personal experiences from the overall picture.

like i said, nothing relative about the economy going through another recession or coral reefs bleaching, haven't really mentioned anything about my own personal experiences and even then it wouldn't really matter-but life's mostly been good where im at-which is what makes things all the more tragic having to realize this in the midst of a pandemic.

Yes, even with the threat of war, climate crisis, and economic upheaval we're still much better off today than in the past

lol you really think so? in the past when a civilization collapsed it didn't mean global destabilization or near-term human extinction, it mostly just meant a reset/restart(im probably simplifying it too much and making it seem a lot less terrifying but whatevs) compared to what we're facing nowadays- which is a whole myriad of environmental, political and societal issues that pretty much threaten our existence. there's one good analogy for it that comes from this article (https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2019 ... n-collapse), "Think of civilisation as a poorly-built ladder. As you climb, each step that you used falls away. A fall from a height of just a few rungs is fine. Yet the higher you climb, the larger the fall. Eventually, once you reach a sufficient height, any drop from the ladder is fatal."

I also do not believe there has been any better point for historically disenfranchised groups like women & minorities than the current era. Some countries have shitty policies which feel as if progress is being rolled back or stagnated, but they are the exception. Bad outcomes still happen around the world, but we are improving the ways in which we respond and deal with them.

when it comes to White-Anglo-Saxon-Protestant America, sure- we definitely don't have anymore gentrification, redlining policies or incarceration rates that serve to keep black communities downtrodden(https://sites.psu.edu/jjscivicissues/20 ... s-effects/) or the latest in anti-lgbt+ bills that are being passed in states like alabama, texas and florida(https://abcnews.go.com/US/alabama-legis ... d=83940764, (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... -ideology/).

dunno if i'd say 71 countries is the exception(https://www.humandignitytrust.org/lgbt- ... alisation/), far from it and if the past paragraph indicates; there are special interest groups in the US that are dead-set in their efforts to keep the aforementioned minorities downtrodden and roll back what little progress has been made. you might be right in that the US is an oasis(to some extent) for those who aren't of the typical kind, but history has shown that these rights for minorities have to be constantly fought for, engaged with and renewed, otherwise it's the same result in most autocratic countries. considering the resurgence in fascism and reactionary thought we are starting to experience, i think it's safe to say we will most likely see a lot more focused attacks(be it physical, emotional, financial or mental) and apathy towards these minorities.

Technology and increased access to knowledge has without doubt improved our lives and will continue to make living better. This may have been posted already, but doing so again since it's relevant:

not gonna argue that technology has made our lives more convenient and a little easier, but the more knowledge we acquire the more the gaps in our knowledge expand as a result, it's not some linear straight-shot to a better future like most here tend to imagine but a constant series of bumbling steps and falling down in our pursuit of "knowledge.".

[Nero]

It's fairly obvious at this stage that the future is clearly superior to the past. If you were fortunate enough to be born in the year 2022 the difference in quality of life between yourself and someone born 100 years before you, even into unbelievable wealth and power is almost inconceivable. Things clearly improve even if they do so in a way that is mostly unnoticeable in short amounts of time.

[Tadasuke]

At the same time, I heard that trains in Britain in 1840s went at a similar speed to trains in Russia today. But of course, there were no trains in Russia then.

[MythOfProgress]

It's fairly obvious at this stage that the future is clearly superior to the past.

Debatable, please elaborate further on this statement. I genuinely would like to know why it's "obvious".

If you were fortunate enough to be born in the year 2022 the difference in quality of life between yourself and someone born 100 years before you, even into unbelievable wealth and power is almost inconceivable.

You know- in a sense you are definitely right, our quality of life is exceptionally different compared to someone else from 100 years ago however i doubt its for the right reasons that we're on the same page. Fortunate for who again? I mean, there is a reason why they refer to generation-z as the last letter in the alphabet and it's not for fun- im just trying to wrap my head around how being born on a dying planet is somehow "fortunate"?

Things clearly improve even if they do so in a way that is mostly unnoticeable in short amounts of time.

Then I suppose the inverse is true, things clearly deteriorate even if they do so in a way that is mostly unnoticeable in short amounts of time, this also reinforces the notion of biosphere collapse being a process, not necessarily an event. the Anthropocene period is coming to an end, most likely sometime during this century or the next. just enjoy whatever life you got left, eh?

[Nero]

I'm going to reply to your two questions separately.

First, there is absolutely no debate as to whether any aspect of general life is superior to life even 70 years ago. To state the obvious, people born in 2022 are not considered to be the last letter of the alphabet. They are considered to be the first. There is nothing about the world of 1922 or 1982 that people would genuinely believe was better in the first time.

The further we get away from any specific time, the more people agree that they would rather be born at a later time if both are sufficiently historical it becomes clear. Someone living in the year 2010 would not have enjoyed having to live a life of someone in 1980. Someone born in the generation alpha as privileged as it may be is not going to be enviable for someone born 40 years later.

The future has never not been a superior place to live than the past - the rate of how many years in the past you have to travel before you reach a time that most people in the time you came from would not prefer to live in has actually decreased. The people of the 1990's may have been somewhat willing to live in the 1960's. The people of the 2020's would not be willing to live in the 90's, the difference is larger, the quality of life on average much higher, the technology in particular being of significant difference. That would never be the general consensus if things had only improved marginally, the people born in the year 1810 or 1840 would not have noticed much change in their general lives if they did have to live in the earlier decade.

[Member]

just enjoy whatever civilization you got left, eh?

Correct.

[MythOfProgress]

First, there is absolutely no debate as to whether any aspect of general life is superior to life even 70 years ago. To state the obvious, people born in 2022 are not considered to be the last letter of the alphabet. They are considered to be the first. There is nothing about the world of 1922 or 1982 that people would genuinely believe was better in the first time.

in this case, i actually did mean to go with gen-z, not alpha considering most of them won't(or don't in general) have much of a concept of what it is to live a good life once irreversible climate change and other environmental catastrophes sets in, though that's my fault for not clarifying further. anyways, i think the entire notion that "things are better"(im a broken record at this point) should be done away with entirely, you can't see the forest for the trees if you're thinking that with a few decades, we've somehow "changed" and made "improvements", even as we are in similar positions of being part of a shrinking middle class/suffering lower class and having a few gadgets to distract ourselves with, to which we call "progress". to anyone who lives in developing countries, your point is moot- hell anyone who lives in a developed country(like the US of A) can still see through the BS that's being perpetuated, the quality of life is "better" and yet suicide rates have gone up higher than ever as this pandemic rages on, deaths of despair becoming more common, fascism is making a return and we are experiencing the sixth mass extinction(one we've engineered ourselves).

The further we get away from any specific time, the more people agree that they would rather be born at a later time if both are sufficiently historical it becomes clear. Someone living in the year 2010 would not have enjoyed having to live a life of someone in 1980. Someone born in the generation alpha as privileged as it may be is not going to be enviable for someone born 40 years later.

to me this is more of a speculative statement(if you have actual data, i'd like to see), so i dunno if i'd say much other then everyone's different, and that the 1980s and the 2010s aren't that different, sure you could factor in the internet not existing(at least not in the widespread version, accessible to the public), but for the most part standards of living were mostly the same. anyone born in generation alpha is definitely not privileged, lmao i dont know where you're getting that idea from, social mobility as a tangible concept has grown more elusive as the years go by.https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... obility-us, (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/11/ ... inequality), (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/ ... economics/)

[erowind]

.

[Nero]

People living in generation alpha will know greater bounty than any generation that has ever existed on this Earth. The generation that follows them will likely know even greater bounty, this is not new, the rate of change is increasing as someone who lived in the year 1700 may not have noticed much of a difference in their daily life at all if they were to live in 1730 or 1740.

Humans alive in the year 1880 would certainly notice the difference in their day to day lives if they were to be transferred to the year 1920. This rate of change has only gotten steeper the further forward in time you look, the 1960's were a considerably better time to live than the 1920's, the 2000's a considerably better time to be alive than the 60's and the 2040's are somehow going to become worse than this? Very unlikely.

In era where human technology advances that at the speed and rate it does, most people will be wary of any prediction for the future beyond that 30 year boundary with much accuracy. However I see no evidence that the general quality of life has any realistic chance of being lower than it is today for the people that are fortunate enough to experience that time. Their medical technology will with certainty be greater than anything we can achieve today as will their ability to generate energy, through whatever means. Climate change will undeniably effect them but to a enough of a degree that they cannot in turn adapt or overcome whatever that effect is would be something I seriously doubt.

There is likely no amount of wealth any human can possess today in 2022 that would allow them to experience things that the people half a century or longer from today will do regardless of status or wealth. This does not mean they will not face hardships or that there are not going to be aspects of their society that are flawed, they will as every generation of humans on this Earth that preceded them have their own problems and societal issues. Their world will be an improvement on ours as ours is an improvement on what came before yet still faces challenges and hardships.

[Lilymoon]

Well I have not read all the replies but you do have to release that science and technology does not make a person good.

The history of world is killings, war, torture, greed, power, wealth, corruption and the Bible talks about this. And on other hand money, wealth and capitalism makes good person a evil person.

The world is run by the 1% that own 60% of the world wealth and you know that large billion dollar companies and financial institutions they set out the rules. How is small or medium businesses to compete unless they have dirty tactics like no sick pay, no vacation, 10 to 12 hour shifts, lucky if you make one dollar in hour.

Than you have both parties that allow big companies to buy out small and medium businesses.

In real world political lobbying would be illegal, donation would be illegal, interests groups illegal, more direct democracy than representative democracy, desensitized government, people in government that should make no more than $40,000 a year and live in middle class house not some 4 million dollar home or more. Not a disconnect of I’m a politician and I just live in area with the elite and my view of the world is different

And strong monopoly laws and fix the education system.

With out this the future is looking like a bad cyberpunk future.

[RupertR]

Looked through the thread, and I think I also have something to say. Well, If we look through the whole history of us as Homo Sapiens Sapiens species or the history of human civilization, things are actually getting better. The life expectancy has been gradually raised, we learned how to cure or at least control lot's of medical conditions which were lethal for a very long time. We've even eliminated smallpox as well as 2 of 3 types of polio. And so on and so on. Actually our development is not even linear, it's exponential. According to the current crisis. This is not the first crisis and nor a first war, and sadly not the last. Not the first epidemic, probably the most world wide, you know we've developed our transport connections since then..
What I want to say, every time every crisis is felt by majority of it's witnesses as completely new and unique, the worst that has been ever happened to them, probably even the end of the world. Yes, every crisis is unprecedented, but if you look back at the previous ones, and remember your own feelings or feeling of your elder relatives if you are young enough, fears of that times, and compare it with what was really happening with us after. Well, sometimes I think that this is the way how we, humanity actually develops.
So no matter what happens our journey continues. It may not be always bright nor always dark but trust me - it's an interesting journey and it worth taking.

[Lilymoon]

And I’m not sure about wind power, solar power, water power so on.

CNN or the green party will say the technology is matured that we can do away with fossil fuels and switch to wind power, solar power, water power so on. Well FOX news like to say wind power, solar power, water power cannot keep up with demand and cannot replace the demand there is now.

So you are stuck in the middle and do not know who to believe at all. Well obvious the conservative party and conservative news is going to be very pro fossil fuels and anti non fossil fuels.

And they are normally the one going on about wind power, solar power, water power so on is not matured enough to replace energy demands today that alone future energy demands.

So you don’t know who to believe at all.

Than there is also the throw away culture where you buy new computer and new smartphone every 3 to 5 years. Than the company making repairable and upgradable to deal with e-waste problems. Where it seems the government is passing laws to make it easier for companies to make proprietary parts and soldering of RAM slots and glueing batteries to the board. Well companies keep pushing by new computer and new smartphone every three years. Than just updating the RAM and battery.

[Lilymoon]

According to the current crisis. This is not the first crisis and nor a first war, and sadly not the last. Not the first epidemic, probably the most world wide, you know we've developed our transport connections since then..
What I want to say, every time every crisis is felt by majority of it's witnesses as completely new and unique, the worst that has been ever happened to them, probably even the end of the world.

I think some of the people in this thread have this doom and gloom is war is very different today than in the past.

Well yes in past humans have always been war like but there was no nukes. When you look at Putin saying if the west steps in he will use nukes and saying with out Russia there is no point for the world to go living well tells me his mental state.

And information coming out that USSR had to talk Mao Zedong down that said it would been better to nuke the world.

Even more troubling, he seemed to welcome a nuclear holocaust as a means of promoting communism worldwide. At one point, Mao confided to Indian prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru: “If the worst came to the worst and half of mankind died, the other half would remain while imperialism would be razed to the ground and the whole world would become socialist; in a number of years there would be 2,700 million people again and definitely more.” This was not the only time Mao made such an argument. Little wonder, then, that both the United States and the Soviet Union seriously considered launching a preventative attack on China’s nuclear program.

And the Cuban criss that came very close to nuclear war the only difference at the time was Putin and Mao was not in charge but USSR communist party members that realized a nuclear war will not help Russia.

Than you get countries like Iran and Afghanistan that may use nuclear war over religious reasons or any other country that makes nukes for religious reasons. Than you got North Korea similar to Putin.

So in way the world is more dangerous today than in the past. Where in the past there was no nukes.

[MythOfProgress]

In response to the article you posted(@cyber_rebel), these are some of my points:

1) Extreme poverty has fallen

i've already responded to this, check my comment that responds to @funkervogt and the fact that it details the $1.90 mark of being a poor way of evaluating poverty. nevermind that, even the article itself says "That’s a low bar for what counts as poverty, and some development experts argue we should be using a global poverty line of $10-15 a day instead".

2) Hunger is falling

Not according to this report by the World Economic Forum(https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/ ... on-report/), which pretty much clarifies this "...Added to this are conflicts, violence and “altered weather conditions.” And then there’s pests – such as locust swarms, which could leave millions at risk of starvation this year..." and this(https://theecologist.org/2020/aug/21/cl ... bal-hunger) explaining the effects of climate change on hunger and food insecurity"...As the planet warms, extreme weather events are becoming more common and more severe. Droughts, floods and other extreme weather events damage infrastructure and housing — as well as agriculture..."

3) Child labor is on the decline

The ongoing pandemic unfortunately has turned this around, the U.S Department of Labor released its report and according to it, child labor is due to rise and see 8 million more children resort to labor(or being forced to by external circumstances). (https://blog.dol.gov/2021/09/29/3-ways- ... hild-labor), (https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/c ... wo-decades).

4) People in developed countries have more leisure time

And yet i have a hard time believing this, considering the fact that it was initially promised that technology(more precisely automation) would lower the amount of work humans would need to do, make it so that people would be able to live like something close to the Jetsons future and enjoy time with family, yet this hasn't been the case. our productivity has only increased since the late 20th century, people are approhacing job burnout faster than ever, especially with the pandemic and any jobs that could be considered essential being affected by it- people are leaving in droves(teachers, doctors/nurses, truck drivers etc). (https://20somethingfinance.com/american ... -vacation/),(https://www.apa.org/monitor/2022/01/spe ... out-stress).

5) The share of income spent on food has plummeted in the US

With inflation looking the way it does right now as with the future of the economy most likely being in shambles, i will say that this is a probably short-lived phenomenon, that will definitely come to bite whoever makes that statement in the ass.

6) Life expectancy is rising

considering this article was posted sometime back in 2018, this one at least deserves a pass seeing as how it couldn't have foresaw the impacts of COVID-19 on life expectancy rates, that being said, even then in 2018 this is a statement you can't really take at face value, the climate crisis as well as existing wealth inequalities have only ensured a decline in life expectancy rates.

7) Child mortality is down

My answer to the third statement(the one about decline of child labor)pretty much means we are more likely to see an uptick in deaths, not a decrease.

9) People have been getting taller for centuries

lol seriously? a sign of things getting better is that we're taller? this has as much causality as me farting and killing someone with that particular fart. get real.

10) More people have access to malaria bednets

while this might not be related directly, im pretty sure antibiotic resistence is going to start becoming more common as the years go by, i wouldn't be too surprised if drug-resistant malaria started to occur which will definitely lead to more deaths as people try to treat us with the medicines they have in mind, the things that have got us here in the first place.

14) In the long term, homicide rates have fallen dramatically
15) In the short term, they’re down in the US, too
16) Violent crime in the US is going down

heavy emphasis on long and short-term ones, problem is political instability has become a lot worse off since 1/6 happened, with a lot more extremist activities out in the wood work, mass shootings that have been perpetuated by gunmen who have warped ideals from far-right ideologies, its doubtful from where i am standing that it will stay down.

17) We’ve rapidly reduced the supply of nuclear weapons
Nuclear armaments from 1945 to 2018

and yet we still maintain them for fear of the other side launching missiles to which i say; the complete disarmament of nuclear weapons will never happen so long as there's always a potential for a country to launch one of their own. it's just basic game theory, no millitary is going to strip themselves completely of the one thing that remains their ace in the hole.

18) More people in the world live in a democracy now

considering trump's almost-successful attempt at overturning the election results on 1/6, i will say that this is a country that is still dictated and based on white supremacist, christian nationalist, jingoistic ideals, which means there is always a chance for it to become an authoritarian place. like i said before, and i'll say it again, people will become more reactionary as issues like the climate crisis and inequality drag on and can't be any longer. people will settle for simple solutions to complex problems because that's just the way we are.

21) Moore’s law isn’t quite over yet

again, the law of diminishing returns pretty much makes this impossible, not to mention the fact that even the article itself agrees the physical limitations may have already been met in terms of fitting transistors on chips. the limits to growth book would tell you that we are more likely to experience an exponential decline, not another exponential growth like we have with the industrial revolution, we've already spread out and expanded our windows of operations with that one chance, we've peaked already, there is no more "growth" to be had because we've already done so, we've used up our resources and the one chance we had at developing things sustainably(at least relatively and even then, it's a hard if).

23) Solar energy is getting cheaper

like i said before, solar energy is not even close to filling in as a major substitute for the oil, gas and coal we use daily in our lives, it's not as energy-dense and as capable of constant storage/use when it comes to energy like the non-renewable sources i've mentioned, not to mention the costs associated in developing solar panels and other products that may rely on fossil fuels, transport, manufacturing and procuring them of course.