How optimistic are you about the near-term future? [2021 - 2055]

Discuss the evolution of human culture, economics and politics in the decades and centuries ahead

How optimistic are you about the near-term future? [2021 - 2055]

0 - Extremely pessimistic
1
3%
1
4
13%
2
1
3%
3
4
13%
4
4
13%
5
7
22%
6
2
6%
7
1
3%
8
5
16%
9
1
3%
10 - Extremely optimistic
2
6%
 
Total votes: 32

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bretbernhoft
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How optimistic are you about the near-term future? [2021 - 2055]

Post by bretbernhoft »

Out of ten, I am an eight.
I am a JavaScript Developer, who loves learning; especially when solving challenges as part of making unique applications for Internet users throughout the global Web. I began my journey in technology with WordPress and Web Analytics. More recently I've been working with React, TypeScript, Tailwind CSS, JavaScript, Vite, Node, Git, Netlify, Quickbase and RESTful JSON APIs.
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wjfox
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Re: How optimistic are you about the near-term future? [2021 - 2055]

Post by wjfox »

For the time period you've specified? Not at all optimistic. I think the next few decades could be hell.

Beyond that, however, our technological capabilities will have become so exponentially greater, we have the potential to reach an inflection point that could transform our world and usher in a whole new era for humanity. A.K.A. the Singularity. Many long-standing problems, such as pollution, disease, hunger, etc. could rapidly melt away.

It's passing through that "make or break" point – some time around the middle of this century – that so troubles me.

So I voted 4 out of 10. Our current path is clearly unsustainable, and seems doomed to failure/collapse. The problem isn't technological – we're an intelligent species and could develop the solutions we need, if we put our minds to it. The problem is more cultural and political. Too many stupid, ignorant people in the population, and too many sociopathic politicians and business leaders who prioritise short-term greed above all else. I doubt we'll go extinct anytime soon, but we seem due for a "correction" of some sort.
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Ozzie guy
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Re: How optimistic are you about the near-term future? [2021 - 2055]

Post by Ozzie guy »

I think my outlook is negative, I often remind myself of Kurzweils HAGI before 2030 prediction but I think I do so to try and be optimistic rather than actually viewing it as likely. My outlook for my own life is negative but I am trying to turn it around.
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funkervogt
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Re: How optimistic are you about the near-term future? [2021 - 2055]

Post by funkervogt »

The question is vague. What exactly are we "optimistic" about?

I choose "8," because on balance, I think things will get much better than they are now, except for some niche aspects of life, which will get worse.

Specifically, by 2055, I think overpopulation and overcrowding will be worse, some parts of the world will have noticeably worse climates due to global warming, and sociocultural problems will worsen.
weatheriscool
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Re: How optimistic are you about the near-term future? [2021 - 2055]

Post by weatheriscool »

As an American I choose a very negative view. This country is likely to go through some extremely ugly times within the next 3-4 decades at the rate things are going.

We're likely seeing our decline and fall as a world power as we speak and probably will be at the mercy of the chinese by the later parts of this period. Eastern Asia will probably do most of the advances of science and tech as we lose our leadership in these fields... Currently, we're losing our ability to speak our minds within a rational way or fact based manner or to even find agreement within a political sense that is very harmful to our system of government. Violence and collapse is very likely.
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funkervogt
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Re: How optimistic are you about the near-term future? [2021 - 2055]

Post by funkervogt »

Violence and collapse is very likely.
I'm also American, and I don't think a collapse of the country is likely by 2055. However, I think there's a better-than-even chance of significant but low-level civil violence over political and cultural differences.
Nanotechandmorefuture
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Re: How optimistic are you about the near-term future? [2021 - 2055]

Post by Nanotechandmorefuture »

weatheriscool wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 4:27 pm Currently, we're losing our ability to speak our minds within a rational way or fact based manner or to even find agreement within a political sense that is very harmful to our system of government.
Can confirm its bad in the USA in this regard. Its also why I like this forum because some of the talk even outside of politics just would not fly.
Redspector
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Re: How optimistic are you about the near-term future? [2021 - 2055]

Post by Redspector »

bretbernhoft wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 8:24 am Out of ten, I am an eight.
Pessimistic. I honestly expect the global south and especially south asia and the middle east to almost completely collapse from climate change. South Asia doesn't have nearly enough groundwater to supply her population and the himalayas are drying up. The middle east is the same. Desalination might take care of the water issue a little bit but you need enormous capital to build desalination and it comes with massive energy costs. Maybe desalination by 2050 will be cheap enough but would it be possible to drive those pipes hundreds of miles inland to Delhi or Tehran or Baghdad? It would need to be utilized to supply water to hundreds of millions. These countries in the global south aren't doing enough to actually be prepared for a 2-3 degrees celsius temperature increase. The global north (basically the first world and russia) will be better off but it will still be hell. The southwest will run out of water but at least the government has the bankroll to fund desalination and water trucks.

Corporations use a obscene amount of water in production for consumerism and maybe a third of what they produce is wasted and never used. Cows and other big animals use so much water and provide barely any calories per liter. Golf courses are a waste and so are lawns. The biggest issue, imo, will be water shortages. We can live in 120F environments but we can't live without water.

I suspect many countries in Europe will steadily become hardline nationalist governments that will impose military rule or create police states for deporting excessive amounts of illegals that will flee the global south. You can already see it from the elections in Europe. Mussolini's granddaughter just won a political seat in rome with a far right corporatist party. The two biggest parties in France are far right and right wing. They are only so popular because people fear immigration and because capitalism is in decay. Jobs are being lost, wages aren't keeping up with productivity, healthcare is becoming worse in countries with nationalized healthcare, privatization is increasing, people can't afford homes like they used too etc. Its a worldwide phenomenon. Even India saw 100 million people descend into poverty in 2020 and its unlikely they will rebound back into minor prosperity as fast as they went into poverty.

The future is looking bleak short term. Past 2055 and probably by the 22nd century, the world will be much better because of a mutual need to cooperate to fix climate change and distribute resources. Maybe by the 23rd century will humanity finally prosper.
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funkervogt
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Re: How optimistic are you about the near-term future? [2021 - 2055]

Post by funkervogt »

Redspector, do you know about "toilet to tap" systems? Countries in the Global South could put them to use at affordable cost now, using existing technology.
Redspector
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Re: How optimistic are you about the near-term future? [2021 - 2055]

Post by Redspector »

funkervogt wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:19 pm Redspector, do you know about "toilet to tap" systems? Countries in the Global South could put them to use at affordable cost now, using existing technology.
Hmm. These have existed for years and have seen barely any growth in usage. Its not like you see this in India or Iran where need is greatest for new water. Copyright laws also prevent good technologies from being accesible to others.

Governments that are dictatorship of the bougeoise dont care about their citizens wellbeing anyways. America doesnt care about americans. If they dif they would have a nationalized healthcare system rather than spending a average of 7k a year for insurance. Most global south countries will continue to hold capital in elite hands and not waste the effort to help their citizens beyond meeger token help.

This whole idea that because technology exists that humanity will use it ignores so many other factors.
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