Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Discuss the evolution of human culture, economics and politics in the decades and centuries ahead
User avatar
funkervogt
Posts: 1171
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm

Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by funkervogt »

>believe China's ability to project military power is weaker than most people think.

And so is America's ability to project power. America already failed in Afghanistan to obliterate a bunch of goat herders with 1970s military equipment after 20 years of fighting. Taiwan right now is operating with only 60-80% of its military roles being filled (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/ch ... low-shell/). What readiness does Taiwan actually have? I mean do you really think a country that produces a significant amount of the worlds arms and has a very efficient manufacturing process with over 60x the population of taiwan would lose? It would be like America fighting Jamaica and betting that Jamaica would win. Its asinine. You are very brainwashed, sir.
You don't seem to understand what "project power" means in this context. It refers to a country's ability to send its military forces well outside of its borders to fight, and to keep them resupplied in the field. The fact that the U.S. was able to invade Afghanistan--a landlocked country that was literally on the other side of the planet--and occupy it for 20 years demonstrates an outstanding ability to project power.

U.S. forces never lost a significant battle in Afghanistan. The war was "lost" for political reasons (namely, the failure to create a central government in Kabul that the Afghan people supported, and a loss of will among America's ruling class to continue the occupation). But that has nothing to do with "power projection."

And I actually HAVE concerns about Taiwan's ability to defend itself, which I expressed in a recent post elsewhere on this forum:
If a conflict happens, I think it's likelier that Taiwan will "deflate" by bungling its own defense and surrendering to China even though further resistance was possible. America would be able and willing to help, but we'd question whether it was worth it considering that the Taiwanese were too cowardly to fight hard for themselves.
viewtopic.php?p=8722#p8722

Your Jamaica comparison is flawed because it leaves out the fact that U.S. forces would have to fight with a powerful third party and probably coalition of third party nations that would send forces into the Caribbean to block U.S. ships and planes from reaching the island. And even if U.S. troops established a beach head on Jamaica, it might be impossible to adequately resupply them due to Jamaica's allies blowing up U.S. ships and planes en route to the island.

I don't think I'm brainwashed at all. Quite the opposite, in fact. I think Westerners in general and Americans in particular have a habit of succumbing to declinist thinking and overreacting to threats of all sorts. The news media is extremely skilled at doing this, as spreading alarmism and fear boosts their profits, and so are military and intelligence agencies. China has become the new boogeyman that generates ad revenue and voter support for increased defense and spy agency funding. If you're parroting the standard line that China is a growing threat and will inevitably defeat and replace the U.S., you're more likely to be the "brainwashed" party in the discussion.

In reality, while China is certainly growing stronger by the day, they still probably lack the ability to conquer Taiwan. Reading extensively about this and related subjects has made me less "brainwashed" than the average person.
TrueAnimationFan
Posts: 119
Joined: Wed May 19, 2021 8:00 pm

Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by TrueAnimationFan »

Regardless of who is correct, calling someone brainwashed just because they disagree with you is a little excessive don't you think?
User avatar
erowind
Posts: 544
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 5:42 am

Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by erowind »

TrueAnimationFan wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:08 am Regardless of who is correct, calling someone brainwashed just because they disagree with you is a little excessive don't you think?
Not that I'm the one that said it, and generally I use more "polite" language. However, reading Society of the Spectacle by Guy Debord and then reexamining that question may yield a different perspective.
Redspector
Posts: 37
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:57 am

Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by Redspector »

funkervogt wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:28 pm
>believe China's ability to project military power is weaker than most people think.

And so is America's ability to project power. America already failed in Afghanistan to obliterate a bunch of goat herders with 1970s military equipment after 20 years of fighting. Taiwan right now is operating with only 60-80% of its military roles being filled (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/ch ... low-shell/). What readiness does Taiwan actually have? I mean do you really think a country that produces a significant amount of the worlds arms and has a very efficient manufacturing process with over 60x the population of taiwan would lose? It would be like America fighting Jamaica and betting that Jamaica would win. Its asinine. You are very brainwashed, sir.
You don't seem to understand what "project power" means in this context. It refers to a country's ability to send its military forces well outside of its borders to fight, and to keep them resupplied in the field. The fact that the U.S. was able to invade Afghanistan--a landlocked country that was literally on the other side of the planet--and occupy it for 20 years demonstrates an outstanding ability to project power.

U.S. forces never lost a significant battle in Afghanistan. The war was "lost" for political reasons (namely, the failure to create a central government in Kabul that the Afghan people supported, and a loss of will among America's ruling class to continue the occupation). But that has nothing to do with "power projection."

And I actually HAVE concerns about Taiwan's ability to defend itself, which I expressed in a recent post elsewhere on this forum:
If a conflict happens, I think it's likelier that Taiwan will "deflate" by bungling its own defense and surrendering to China even though further resistance was possible. America would be able and willing to help, but we'd question whether it was worth it considering that the Taiwanese were too cowardly to fight hard for themselves.
viewtopic.php?p=8722#p8722

Your Jamaica comparison is flawed because it leaves out the fact that U.S. forces would have to fight with a powerful third party and probably coalition of third party nations that would send forces into the Caribbean to block U.S. ships and planes from reaching the island. And even if U.S. troops established a beach head on Jamaica, it might be impossible to adequately resupply them due to Jamaica's allies blowing up U.S. ships and planes en route to the island.

I don't think I'm brainwashed at all. Quite the opposite, in fact. I think Westerners in general and Americans in particular have a habit of succumbing to declinist thinking and overreacting to threats of all sorts. The news media is extremely skilled at doing this, as spreading alarmism and fear boosts their profits, and so are military and intelligence agencies. China has become the new boogeyman that generates ad revenue and voter support for increased defense and spy agency funding. If you're parroting the standard line that China is a growing threat and will inevitably defeat and replace the U.S., you're more likely to be the "brainwashed" party in the discussion.

In reality, while China is certainly growing stronger by the day, they still probably lack the ability to conquer Taiwan. Reading extensively about this and related subjects has made me less "brainwashed" than the average person.
Its alarmist and straight up nonsensical to think a tiny island nation of 20 million can win against a already industralized nation of 1.4 billion. I also think too many people believe that China is much weaker than it actually is. People like to pretend China is this incompetent government with complete oppression and is full of "ghost units", made up to make the government look stronger on paper. Truth is, its far from the truth. China is much more competent and powerful than you realize.

I mean even the CIA admitted that China could easily destroy an american invasion and their job is literally american exceptionalism.

You can literally look at the numbers and just tell China would steamroll taiwan. The comparison between Jamaica and the US is pretty similar. You may be well read but it may just be from sources that are pro-western or have a very strong bias. Pro tip btw, CNN and Reuters have a very firm american bias. So do a lot of other western news outlets like NYTimes and WashingtonPost.
Redspector
Posts: 37
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:57 am

Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by Redspector »

TrueAnimationFan wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:08 am Regardless of who is correct, calling someone brainwashed just because they disagree with you is a little excessive don't you think?
Sometimes people make such ridiculous claims that the only answer is that they are brainwashed.
User avatar
funkervogt
Posts: 1171
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm

Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by funkervogt »

Redspector wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 12:01 amSometimes people make such ridiculous claims that the only answer is that they are brainwashed.
An ironic thing to say in light of several of your own posts.
Redspector
Posts: 37
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:57 am

Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by Redspector »

funkervogt wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:17 pm
Redspector wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 12:01 amSometimes people make such ridiculous claims that the only answer is that they are brainwashed.
An ironic thing to say in light of several of your own posts.
Same could be said about you. After all. you seriously believe a country with far higher industrial and manufacturing capacity would lose to a country with a fraction of the same capacity. I'm sorry you can't see beyond western imperalistic news networks that lie about Iraq having WMDs or most countries problems being caused by "x" rather than the CIA. Did you know that Iran had a democracy before the US government overthrow it? What about the democratic socialist regime of Guatemala or Burkina Faso? America is not a champion of freedom but of oppression. It has always been that way.

As for your belief that China would lose a war against Taiwan, i seriously don't know how you can believe in such fallacies. Most american military equipment comes at least partially produced from Chinese REMs and conductors. To think that taiwan would beat China is such a fallacy. The American military is located at least 1000 miles away from China. The American military has a fraction of the number of bomber planes it did in the freaking 1970s when it lost a war against the vietcong. How the f*ck would a small fraction of bomber fighter jets be able to destroy the chinese infrastructure enough to prevent a offensive attack by the Chinese against taiwan? I mean ffs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_B- ... tofortress) this link itself says the B52 is at 72 ffs. That number is comparable to the the number of B52s the f*cking british royal air force had in the 1960s after a significant amount of military decline.

It is honestly sad that people believe that Taiwan is a great nation capable of defeating the second largest military and 1st largest economy on earth. Taiwan is no slouch in comparison to its size but its mediocre in comparison to the beast that is china. This is not american fatalism that fuels this belief but objective reality. You really need to consider the fact that reuters, cnn and fox news are inherently pro american and fail to recognize the faults in American military power.

Taiwan will be lost to the chinese and its because America is actually getting weaker while China is getting stronger. China has the home field advantage of being relatively close, being the industrial base of the world, having far greater ability to produce weapons in a shorter amount of time compared to the americans and the american military being weakened by its lack of strategic bomber planes that could dismantle or at the very least hinder Chinese manufacturing capacity.
RayKurzweilLovesCats
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2021 10:06 pm

Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by RayKurzweilLovesCats »

Redspector wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 6:35 am
funkervogt wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:17 pm
Redspector wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 12:01 amSometimes people make such ridiculous claims that the only answer is that they are brainwashed.
An ironic thing to say in light of several of your own posts.
Same could be said about you. After all. you seriously believe a country with far higher industrial and manufacturing capacity would lose to a country with a fraction of the same capacity. I'm sorry you can't see beyond western imperalistic news networks that lie about Iraq having WMDs or most countries problems being caused by "x" rather than the CIA. Did you know that Iran had a democracy before the US government overthrow it? What about the democratic socialist regime of Guatemala or Burkina Faso? America is not a champion of freedom but of oppression. It has always been that way.

As for your belief that China would lose a war against Taiwan, i seriously don't know how you can believe in such fallacies. Most american military equipment comes at least partially produced from Chinese REMs and conductors. To think that taiwan would beat China is such a fallacy. The American military is located at least 1000 miles away from China. The American military has a fraction of the number of bomber planes it did in the freaking 1970s when it lost a war against the vietcong. How the f*ck would a small fraction of bomber fighter jets be able to destroy the chinese infrastructure enough to prevent a offensive attack by the Chinese against taiwan? I mean ffs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_B- ... tofortress) this link itself says the B52 is at 72 ffs. That number is comparable to the the number of B52s the f*cking british royal air force had in the 1960s after a significant amount of military decline.

It is honestly sad that people believe that Taiwan is a great nation capable of defeating the second largest military and 1st largest economy on earth. Taiwan is no slouch in comparison to its size but its mediocre in comparison to the beast that is china. This is not american fatalism that fuels this belief but objective reality. You really need to consider the fact that reuters, cnn and fox news are inherently pro american and fail to recognize the faults in American military power.

Taiwan will be lost to the chinese and its because America is actually getting weaker while China is getting stronger. China has the home field advantage of being relatively close, being the industrial base of the world, having far greater ability to produce weapons in a shorter amount of time compared to the americans and the american military being weakened by its lack of strategic bomber planes that could dismantle or at the very least hinder Chinese manufacturing capacity.
There is no doubt China would steamroll Taiwan in any war. An EMP detonated above Taiwan followed by a missile barrage against key targets such as airfields and Taiwan would be a sitting duck. How could they not be when China spends more than 25 times as much as Taiwan does on the military (understandable given their relative sizes). America isn't going to go to war over Taiwan when the superpower who controls it is 80 miles away and would destroy any american invasion fleet with its air and missile assets given Taiwan's extreme close proximity to the mainland. China would win the war but they've made the calculus it would be a pyrrhic victory thus far given the likely international reaction in terms of sanctions not to mention that even with a successful invasion China would still lose tens of thousands of troops. Will the calculus change over time? we shall see..
Redspector
Posts: 37
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:57 am

Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by Redspector »

RayKurzweilLovesCats wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 10:28 pm
Redspector wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 6:35 am
funkervogt wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:17 pm
An ironic thing to say in light of several of your own posts.
Same could be said about you. After all. you seriously believe a country with far higher industrial and manufacturing capacity would lose to a country with a fraction of the same capacity. I'm sorry you can't see beyond western imperalistic news networks that lie about Iraq having WMDs or most countries problems being caused by "x" rather than the CIA. Did you know that Iran had a democracy before the US government overthrow it? What about the democratic socialist regime of Guatemala or Burkina Faso? America is not a champion of freedom but of oppression. It has always been that way.

As for your belief that China would lose a war against Taiwan, i seriously don't know how you can believe in such fallacies. Most american military equipment comes at least partially produced from Chinese REMs and conductors. To think that taiwan would beat China is such a fallacy. The American military is located at least 1000 miles away from China. The American military has a fraction of the number of bomber planes it did in the freaking 1970s when it lost a war against the vietcong. How the f*ck would a small fraction of bomber fighter jets be able to destroy the chinese infrastructure enough to prevent a offensive attack by the Chinese against taiwan? I mean ffs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_B- ... tofortress) this link itself says the B52 is at 72 ffs. That number is comparable to the the number of B52s the f*cking british royal air force had in the 1960s after a significant amount of military decline.

It is honestly sad that people believe that Taiwan is a great nation capable of defeating the second largest military and 1st largest economy on earth. Taiwan is no slouch in comparison to its size but its mediocre in comparison to the beast that is china. This is not american fatalism that fuels this belief but objective reality. You really need to consider the fact that reuters, cnn and fox news are inherently pro american and fail to recognize the faults in American military power.

Taiwan will be lost to the chinese and its because America is actually getting weaker while China is getting stronger. China has the home field advantage of being relatively close, being the industrial base of the world, having far greater ability to produce weapons in a shorter amount of time compared to the americans and the american military being weakened by its lack of strategic bomber planes that could dismantle or at the very least hinder Chinese manufacturing capacity.
There is no doubt China would steamroll Taiwan in any war. An EMP detonated above Taiwan followed by a missile barrage against key targets such as airfields and Taiwan would be a sitting duck. How could they not be when China spends more than 25 times as much as Taiwan does on the military (understandable given their relative sizes). America isn't going to go to war over Taiwan when the superpower who controls it is 80 miles away and would destroy any american invasion fleet with its air and missile assets given Taiwan's extreme close proximity to the mainland. China would win the war but they've made the calculus it would be a pyrrhic victory thus far given the likely international reaction in terms of sanctions not to mention that even with a successful invasion China would still lose tens of thousands of troops. Will the calculus change over time? we shall see..
I beg to disagree with your 1st sentence. Funkervogt disagrees because he has read washingtonpost (american imperalist news), theguardian (another western news outlet) and the economist (peak neoliberal western news). He has read every single article criticizing China and therefore knows China is as weak as Uganda and in no way could destroy Taiwan. In fact, Taiwan has just been waiting for the opportunity for China to invade so they can counter attack and seize beijing and bring an american government into Beijing. Its clear because China has horrible navy with aircraft carriers that would collapse by a sudden breeze and a incompetent military because communism.
User avatar
funkervogt
Posts: 1171
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm

Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by funkervogt »

Redspector wrote: Fri Oct 22, 2021 4:36 am
RayKurzweilLovesCats wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 10:28 pm
Redspector wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 6:35 am

Same could be said about you. After all. you seriously believe a country with far higher industrial and manufacturing capacity would lose to a country with a fraction of the same capacity. I'm sorry you can't see beyond western imperalistic news networks that lie about Iraq having WMDs or most countries problems being caused by "x" rather than the CIA. Did you know that Iran had a democracy before the US government overthrow it? What about the democratic socialist regime of Guatemala or Burkina Faso? America is not a champion of freedom but of oppression. It has always been that way.

As for your belief that China would lose a war against Taiwan, i seriously don't know how you can believe in such fallacies. Most american military equipment comes at least partially produced from Chinese REMs and conductors. To think that taiwan would beat China is such a fallacy. The American military is located at least 1000 miles away from China. The American military has a fraction of the number of bomber planes it did in the freaking 1970s when it lost a war against the vietcong. How the f*ck would a small fraction of bomber fighter jets be able to destroy the chinese infrastructure enough to prevent a offensive attack by the Chinese against taiwan? I mean ffs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_B- ... tofortress) this link itself says the B52 is at 72 ffs. That number is comparable to the the number of B52s the f*cking british royal air force had in the 1960s after a significant amount of military decline.

It is honestly sad that people believe that Taiwan is a great nation capable of defeating the second largest military and 1st largest economy on earth. Taiwan is no slouch in comparison to its size but its mediocre in comparison to the beast that is china. This is not american fatalism that fuels this belief but objective reality. You really need to consider the fact that reuters, cnn and fox news are inherently pro american and fail to recognize the faults in American military power.

Taiwan will be lost to the chinese and its because America is actually getting weaker while China is getting stronger. China has the home field advantage of being relatively close, being the industrial base of the world, having far greater ability to produce weapons in a shorter amount of time compared to the americans and the american military being weakened by its lack of strategic bomber planes that could dismantle or at the very least hinder Chinese manufacturing capacity.
There is no doubt China would steamroll Taiwan in any war. An EMP detonated above Taiwan followed by a missile barrage against key targets such as airfields and Taiwan would be a sitting duck. How could they not be when China spends more than 25 times as much as Taiwan does on the military (understandable given their relative sizes). America isn't going to go to war over Taiwan when the superpower who controls it is 80 miles away and would destroy any american invasion fleet with its air and missile assets given Taiwan's extreme close proximity to the mainland. China would win the war but they've made the calculus it would be a pyrrhic victory thus far given the likely international reaction in terms of sanctions not to mention that even with a successful invasion China would still lose tens of thousands of troops. Will the calculus change over time? we shall see..
I beg to disagree with your 1st sentence. Funkervogt disagrees because he has read washingtonpost (american imperalist news), theguardian (another western news outlet) and the economist (peak neoliberal western news). He has read every single article criticizing China and therefore knows China is as weak as Uganda and in no way could destroy Taiwan. In fact, Taiwan has just been waiting for the opportunity for China to invade so they can counter attack and seize beijing and bring an american government into Beijing. Its clear because China has horrible navy with aircraft carriers that would collapse by a sudden breeze and a incompetent military because communism.
You need to grow up.
Post Reply