Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Discuss the evolution of human culture, economics and politics in the decades and centuries ahead
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Ozzie guy
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Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by Ozzie guy »

China is similar enough to its opponents to not have any significant ideological advantages or disadvantages.

Near the end of 1976 China once again became a capitalist country when rightists took power following Mao's death. The new leadership ended the cultural revolution, purged Marxists such as arresting the gang of 4 and broke up the communes with the military all in the last months of 1976.
After decades of reform China is more and more no different to any other neoliberal country in fact Deng is often seen as one of the founders of Neo liberalism.
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Why China will lose
Without any serious ideological advantages or disadvantages a faction that is much stronger will win.

The USA is stronger than China whist China is catching up to the USA something is forgotten ... China is not just up against the USA they would have to catch up to the combined mite of all Nato/EU countries plus many other pro west countries including future superpowers like India. China has a few allies but they are far outweighed by all the pro western countries, India alone could potentially match the power of China and all her allies combined a few decades from now.
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funkervogt
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Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by funkervogt »

What if the U.S. and its allies fail to unify against China enough?
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Ozzie guy
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Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by Ozzie guy »

That could happen maybe China could manage a victory somehow if it did.

I was more so making a bet kind of prediction the future is undecided with many variables, I just thought the above interconnected variables were most important.
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raklian
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Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by raklian »

China is more likely to self-sabotage itself via its unstable economic and social systems rather than be defeated by external geopolitical enemies.
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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funkervogt
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Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by funkervogt »

raklian wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:18 pm China is more likely to self-sabotage itself via its unstable economic and social systems rather than be defeated by external geopolitical enemies.
As a massive country that has nuclear weapons, I don't see how China could ever be "defeated."

The likeliest "bad outcome" for China would be economically stalling like Japan, but at a lower level of GDP. In other words, they would never get out of the "Middle Income Trap." The nature of their Communist government would prevent it from making the economic and political reforms needed to enter the league of the truly developed nations. Average Chinese people would be dissatisfied with their situation, but not powerful enough to overthrow the Communist party. (Kind of sounds like the marriage of inconvenience between American voters and the two dominant parties)

Another possibility is that China will finally launch its long-awaited invasion of Taiwan and lose, which would be hugely embarrassing and would cast into doubt the narrative that China's ascension to global leadership is inevitable and the West is doomed to decline. I often read about military affairs, and believe China's ability to project military power is weaker than most people think.
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erowind
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Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by erowind »

I posted about this in a similar thread recently. Linking that post here.
viewtopic.php?f=22&t=2070&p=8732#p8732
TL:DR: China has/will have soon the ability to control Taiwan. America doesn't have the industry, planes, missiles or men to fight a peer war on China's home turf.

In terms of China's ability to project power globally that's another question and one that doesn't matter as much in terms of military. China is fighting and economic war globally and doesn't have a need for military force in the same way that America does. China controls a massive share of the worlds manufacturing base and has secured its trade routes overland even should they become problematic oversea. At this point if a peer war broke out America's supply chain would suffer more than China's by virtue that America will have to rebuild its industry and China already has industry.

None of this means that America's power will wane and China will become the new global imperial power. It's more likely that a receding America will leave room for new imperial competition between multiple imperial blocs. The EU, Russia, China, America and various imperial satellites will all compete with one another for control of capital flows. This isn't a cold war, it's the prelude to WW1.
Redspector
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Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by Redspector »

Set and Meet Goals wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 1:50 pm China is similar enough to its opponents to not have any significant ideological advantages or disadvantages.

Near the end of 1976 China once again became a capitalist country when rightists took power following Mao's death. The new leadership ended the cultural revolution, purged Marxists such as arresting the gang of 4 and broke up the communes with the military all in the last months of 1976.
After decades of reform China is more and more no different to any other neoliberal country in fact Deng is often seen as one of the founders of Neo liberalism.
Image


Why China will lose
Without any serious ideological advantages or disadvantages a faction that is much stronger will win.

The USA is stronger than China whist China is catching up to the USA something is forgotten ... China is not just up against the USA they would have to catch up to the combined mite of all Nato/EU countries plus many other pro west countries including future superpowers like India. China has a few allies but they are far outweighed by all the pro western countries, India alone could potentially match the power of China and all her allies combined a few decades from now.
You call yourself a marxist and believe in this crap. The USA is in a state of complete decline and its becoming more aggravated. College tuition is burdening the youth and healthcare is burdening the old. How long do you think 8 dollar alcohol swabs and 25,000 dollar a year college tuition can last with 8% inflation a year? Most jobs in america are created for the college educated and upward mobility only exists for the educated. You won't be able to afford college tuition or you will be so in debt that it would have been better to sell your labor for 12 an hour to Mcdonalds. Healthcare costs will mean there will be more people who will go bankrupt and be unable to afford healthcare. Rent is skyrocketing, home ownership is down and trickle down economics aren't working. The youth of this nation will grow up to be bankrupt rentoids in their 40s and 50s. How do you think that will play out?

Climate change is far worse for america than China. The Colorado River supplies water to nearly all of Southern California, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Southern Utah. Everyday it dwindles in water flow. This year, they had mandatory water restrictions in some of those areas. I know because i have family out there. A growing population and less water supply will be a disaster of epic proportions. Its also not like america would bother building desalination pumps from the pacific and then carve whole mountains to supply Phoenix or Las Vegas with water. They can't even pass the infrastructure bill they have now. Water is eroding the gulf coast to the point where communities are being evacuated. Hurricanes are becoming higher intensity and striking more often. China just has to deal with more intense rainstorms and some sea level rise as climate change progresses.

China may be weaker than the US in military strength but a total war will never happen. Why would the corporations who rule america want to lose their profits? A total war would only be done if China decides to keep resources that are only available there to herself.

Even if there was a war, the US is incompetent. The CIA told the whole world that dozens of their spies were executed in China. They don't even have the power to infiltrate the government. Meanwhile China has already hacked into the US government's servers, has information on nearly every american citizen through hacking, has numerous spies throughout the country and is slowly turning allies away from recognizing Taiwan. China invests more money into AI than the US does and with its Road and Belt initiative, it will take over the world. A highway/railroad linking China to the entire world is superior to using boat traffic. America had its cities burned down by angry proles discontent with the status quo while Chinese citizens take pride in the country's achievements. Achievements like lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty. In 50 years, China went from being as poor as Zambia to as rich as Poland.

The US will collapse very soon. I should know, i live here. Everywhere i go i see more poverty and misery than ever before. Police stations struggle with recruiting now and the military can't even find people to join anymore. Once taboo, socialism is now thriving among the working classes despite the US's efforts to infiltrate and destroy them. Bridges are breaking apart now like the Hernando De Soto Bridge in Memphis. It is one of the major links between the east and west and it broke. Billions of dollars have been lost in trade. China doesn't have those problems at all.
Redspector
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Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by Redspector »

Set and Meet Goals wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 1:50 pm China is similar enough to its opponents to not have any significant ideological advantages or disadvantages.

Near the end of 1976 China once again became a capitalist country when rightists took power following Mao's death. The new leadership ended the cultural revolution, purged Marxists such as arresting the gang of 4 and broke up the communes with the military all in the last months of 1976.
After decades of reform China is more and more no different to any other neoliberal country in fact Deng is often seen as one of the founders of Neo liberalism.
Image


Why China will lose
Without any serious ideological advantages or disadvantages a faction that is much stronger will win.

The USA is stronger than China whist China is catching up to the USA something is forgotten ... China is not just up against the USA they would have to catch up to the combined mite of all Nato/EU countries plus many other pro west countries including future superpowers like India. China has a few allies but they are far outweighed by all the pro western countries, India alone could potentially match the power of China and all her allies combined a few decades from now.
I was so angry that i forgot to criticize the rest of what you wrote.

China is not a neoliberal country and its foolish to believe such things. The corporations are literally owned by China. Out of the 10 largest companies in China, 8 are owned by the state. The surplus productivity from these companies is used to build up productive forces in China, hence why China has developed so rapidly. You clearly don't understand what neoliberalism is. Neoliberal economies have barely any government interference in the economy and the politicians are owned by the rich like slaves. Corporatism thrives in neoliberal societies. A country like China is nowhere near neoliberal. They arrested billionaires for defamation and have effectively shut down companies worth hundreds of millions just because they didn't like them. China is what you would call State Capitalist. Deng realized that China could never implement socialism without productive forces and resources. This development could only come about through globalism and moderate free trade. Deng and his subsequent replacements created the idea that corporations can invest in China by creating factories here. China would then use the productive forces excess to build infrastructure and advertise as a hub of manufacturing. Then they started advertising tourism and many other things until China developed into a middle income country. Chinese people don't worry about starving or not having enough to afford healthcare or being able to send their kids to school anymore. They worry now about being overworked, vacationing, being able to afford the internet bill and random personal problems.

The state owning corporations is so based and i wish america did it instead of being a cuc* and letting corporations own america.
Redspector
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Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by Redspector »

funkervogt wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 5:13 pm
raklian wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:18 pm China is more likely to self-sabotage itself via its unstable economic and social systems rather than be defeated by external geopolitical enemies.
As a massive country that has nuclear weapons, I don't see how China could ever be "defeated."

The likeliest "bad outcome" for China would be economically stalling like Japan, but at a lower level of GDP. In other words, they would never get out of the "Middle Income Trap." The nature of their Communist government would prevent it from making the economic and political reforms needed to enter the league of the truly developed nations. Average Chinese people would be dissatisfied with their situation, but not powerful enough to overthrow the Communist party. (Kind of sounds like the marriage of inconvenience between American voters and the two dominant parties)

Another possibility is that China will finally launch its long-awaited invasion of Taiwan and lose, which would be hugely embarrassing and would cast into doubt the narrative that China's ascension to global leadership is inevitable and the West is doomed to decline. I often read about military affairs, and believe China's ability to project military power is weaker than most people think.
>believe China's ability to project military power is weaker than most people think.

And so is America's ability to project power. America already failed in Afghanistan to obliterate a bunch of goat herders with 1970s military equipment after 20 years of fighting. Taiwan right now is operating with only 60-80% of its military roles being filled (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/ch ... low-shell/). What readiness does Taiwan actually have? I mean do you really think a country that produces a significant amount of the worlds arms and has a very efficient manufacturing process with over 60x the population of taiwan would lose? It would be like America fighting Jamaica and betting that Jamaica would win. Its asinine. You are very brainwashed, sir.
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Ozzie guy
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Re: Prediction China will lose the "cold war"

Post by Ozzie guy »

Redspector wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:33 pm
Set and Meet Goals wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 1:50 pm China is similar enough to its opponents to not have any significant ideological advantages or disadvantages.

Near the end of 1976 China once again became a capitalist country when rightists took power following Mao's death. The new leadership ended the cultural revolution, purged Marxists such as arresting the gang of 4 and broke up the communes with the military all in the last months of 1976.
After decades of reform China is more and more no different to any other neoliberal country in fact Deng is often seen as one of the founders of Neo liberalism.
Image


Why China will lose
Without any serious ideological advantages or disadvantages a faction that is much stronger will win.

The USA is stronger than China whist China is catching up to the USA something is forgotten ... China is not just up against the USA they would have to catch up to the combined mite of all Nato/EU countries plus many other pro west countries including future superpowers like India. China has a few allies but they are far outweighed by all the pro western countries, India alone could potentially match the power of China and all her allies combined a few decades from now.
I was so angry that i forgot to criticize the rest of what you wrote.

China is not a neoliberal country and its foolish to believe such things. The corporations are literally owned by China. Out of the 10 largest companies in China, 8 are owned by the state. The surplus productivity from these companies is used to build up productive forces in China, hence why China has developed so rapidly. You clearly don't understand what neoliberalism is. Neoliberal economies have barely any government interference in the economy and the politicians are owned by the rich like slaves. Corporatism thrives in neoliberal societies. A country like China is nowhere near neoliberal. They arrested billionaires for defamation and have effectively shut down companies worth hundreds of millions just because they didn't like them. China is what you would call State Capitalist. Deng realized that China could never implement socialism without productive forces and resources. This development could only come about through globalism and moderate free trade. Deng and his subsequent replacements created the idea that corporations can invest in China by creating factories here. China would then use the productive forces excess to build infrastructure and advertise as a hub of manufacturing. Then they started advertising tourism and many other things until China developed into a middle income country. Chinese people don't worry about starving or not having enough to afford healthcare or being able to send their kids to school anymore. They worry now about being overworked, vacationing, being able to afford the internet bill and random personal problems.

The state owning corporations is so based and i wish america did it instead of being a cuc* and letting corporations own america.
I have nothing against you thinking China will win I was just throwing an argument out there.

Do you view China as socialist as you seem to support them? I used to be a Dengist myself until I realized China is revisionist and capitalist (which you may disagree with).
This is something I would debate you on.
(I plan on being away from content aggregation sites like future timeline but I may be back in the next 14 days if you wanted to start a debate).
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