The United States in 2076

Discuss the evolution of human culture, economics and politics in the decades and centuries ahead

Which scenario is most likely for 2076?

1. Expansion – The U.S. expands beyond its current borders, with Canada and/or Mexico being annexed or voluntarily unifying, either partially or fully.
4
14%
2. Status quo – The U.S. remains largely the same as in 2022, with little or no change to its territory or unity.
12
43%
3. Balkanisation – The U.S. becomes divided into two, or perhaps several independent regions (e.g. north and south, or coastal areas), each with its own government.
8
29%
4. Extreme balkanisation – Severe political, economic, environmental or other turmoil has resulted in a breakdown of the U.S. into dozens or even hundreds of separate entities.
1
4%
5. Total collapse – Climate change, war, and/or other existential threats are so catastrophic, the U.S. effectively no longer exists. Most or all of the country is in anarchy.
3
11%
 
Total votes: 28

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Yuli Ban
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Re: The United States in 2076

Post by Yuli Ban »

Balkanization isn't just what I think will happen; I think it ought to have happened already. The USA is bizarrely homogeneous culturally and linguistically thanks to its ultra-rapid formation (we are quite literally two-to-three generations removed from the birth of the nation) but ultimately social and political differences will drive a wedge in the country that will cause it to split. Because slavery is no longer an issue, when that split comes, it won't cause a civil war. But I do pity the states in the south and southwest that are going to get eviscerated by climate change.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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erowind
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Re: The United States in 2076

Post by erowind »

I voted for expansion. It would either be that or my aformentioned system change option. The ecological crises will be in full in swing by 2076 for sure, but America is also the most powerful empire in human history and the core of the that empire geographically is the contiguous 48 states. I expect America to be one of the last capitalist nations to undergo revolution globally. In terms of likeliness from most likely to least likely Expansion ---> Status Quo but with system change (no longer liberal capitalism) ---> Balkanization is the course I see.

The reason for this is that as America faces pressures from internal migration within the United States from uninhabitable places to habitable ones Canada's vast habitable land resources will become more and more enticing. At the same time the United States should be expected to exploit Canada's natural resources more than it already does in order to maintain as much of its wealth and industry as possible in the face of what will likely be a near total breakdown of global trade.

The character of the annexation itself may take an overtly military form, but even in the face of immense crises I find it more likely that the United States will use soft-power to integrate Canada aggressively and gradually, avoiding outright conflict. The annexation may even take the form of an informal North American Union of sorts, where even though Canada may still exist in name, its resources will flood to American markets while Americans gain the right to live and settle on Canadian lands all the while the Canadian government will be entirely controlled opposition that has no real political power. Many Canadians, if the current reality of information warfare is anything to expand upon today, may not even know they are living under occupation. The unequal relationship may at the time just seem like the same old friendly Canadian-American relations that have existed for generations.
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joe00uk
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Re: The United States in 2076

Post by joe00uk »

I voted for 3) Balkanisation, although I think that will probably happen by around the middle of the century. By 2076, I expect the nations of the former United States to be gradually transitioning from an initial balkanisation to more extreme balkanisation. I think the maximum extent of balkanisation will probably be reached some time around 2200 as the coming dark age bottoms out and slowly gives way to successor civilisations which will build on its ruins.
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raklian
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Re: The United States in 2076

Post by raklian »

erowind wrote: Sat Apr 30, 2022 11:54 am I voted for expansion. It would either be that or my aformentioned system change option. The ecological crises will be in full in swing by 2076 for sure, but America is also the most powerful empire in human history and the core of the that empire geographically is the contiguous 48 states. I expect America to be one of the last capitalist nations to undergo revolution globally. In terms of likeliness from most likely to least likely Expansion ---> Status Quo but with system change (no longer liberal capitalism) ---> Balkanization is the course I see.

The reason for this is that as America faces pressures from internal migration within the United States from uninhabitable places to habitable ones Canada's vast habitable land resources will become more and more enticing. At the same time the United States should be expected to exploit Canada's natural resources more than it already does in order to maintain as much of its wealth and industry as possible in the face of what will likely be a near total breakdown of global trade.

The character of the annexation itself may take an overtly military form, but even in the face of immense crises I find it more likely that the United States will use soft-power to integrate Canada aggressively and gradually, avoiding outright conflict. The annexation may even take the form of an informal North American Union of sorts, where even though Canada may still exist in name, its resources will flood to American markets while Americans gain the right to live and settle on Canadian lands all the while the Canadian government will be entirely controlled opposition that has no real political power. Many Canadians, if the current reality of information warfare is anything to expand upon today, may not even know they are living under occupation. The unequal relationship may at the time just seem like the same old friendly Canadian-American relations that have existed for generations.
There is the possibility England will also be convinced to join after the United Kingdom is no longer. If England does not reverse its Brexit decision to separate from the European Union but wants a way to access a large economic market cost-free while retaining most of its sovereignty, the idea of joining the United States may be appealing. It helps the United States and England share a common heritage.
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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Cyber_Rebel
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Re: The United States in 2076

Post by Cyber_Rebel »

Does the United States at the very least magically enact some form of UHS, gun control, and welcoming of a multi-party-political system with much less lobbied interest in these expansion scenarios? I know it's the future, but you have to consider the current reality which things such as abortion may be overturned soon by the Supreme Court, so progress isn't always guaranteed. I just don't see why Canada/UK would ever want to be annexed by a backwards country in comparison, and NATO guarantees their sovereignty even in the event of America going rogue.

Hilariously reminds me of this though:
Image

*whisper* Hey Canada, maybe build that wall and make Elon pay for it, eh?

Maybe I'm just jaded, but I don't see a future with the U.S. remaining top power. A federalized E.U. which learns from the mistakes of the former seems more likely, especially with current events pushing it in that direction.
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wjfox
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Re: The United States in 2076

Post by wjfox »

Status quo it is, then (unless the vote changes significantly)...

But with increased political turmoil between now and 2076. In the timeline entry, I could mention some states mounting breakaway attempts, only to be thwarted by court/military actions.

It might also be worth mentioning some sort of cooperation with Canada to accept climate refugees (the southern U.S. will be hit particularly hard).

https://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/2017/07/1.htm
https://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/202 ... e-2100.htm

If anyone has further ideas or suggestions for what to include, please let me know, thanks.
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Cyber_Rebel
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Re: The United States in 2076

Post by Cyber_Rebel »

Assuming Yuli's prediction about AGI's development is on point, would it be possible that one could make itself president by this point? Or at least some Metal Gear Solid scenario:




Of course, the people willingly voting for it is another matter, but something like this could be considered by the Pentagon to prevent the balkanization scenarios in the poll, like the A.I. in MGS's purpose kind of was. It was more about controlling misinformation, but I think considering recent history we all know how dangerous that can be. Can't say that I'd be too against this if it means more stability, better prevention of war or another demagogue getting elected. The media synthesis thread makes me think it could construct perfectly artificial States of the Union or POTUS speeches to make itself seem more in touch.
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funkervogt
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Re: The United States in 2076

Post by funkervogt »

I voted for status quo.

That said, at some point after 2076, all bets are off. The U.S. is the most advanced country in the Americas, so AGI is likeliest to take over the U.S. before any of the others.

Once the U.S. falls to AGI, it will inevitably expand to take over Canada and Mexico. Once Mexico falls, the rest of Central America will at some point. Once North America is dominated by one AGI, South America is destined to be absorbed. It's biggest problem would be gaining a toehold in Eurasia if a different AGI (originating in China or Europe) has already established itself there. AGI-era geopolitics could come to resemble Mackinder's "Heartland" arrangement.



Alternatively, AGIs might effectively Balkanize the U.S. As the technology spread, Canada and Mexico would follow the same pattern until the old national borders didn't exist. The country of Texas might have closer relations and freer trade with the country of Monterrey than it did with Oklahoma. Imagine borders shifting, countries merging and splitting, unions and treaties forming and ending at speeds too fast for humans to adapt to.
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caltrek
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Re: The United States in 2076

Post by caltrek »

As usual, Robert Reich gets it right. At least, in this case, I hope that he has got it right:

Conclusion:
Where will all this end? Not with two separate nations. What America is going through is less like a civil war and more like Brexit — a lumbering, mutual decision to go separate ways on most things but remain connected on a few big things (such as national defense, monetary policy, and civil and political rights). We’ll still be America. But we’re becoming two versions of America. The open question is analogous to the one faced by every couple that separates — how will we find ways to be civil toward each other?
Read more: https://robertreich.substack.com/p/the- ... -civil?s=r
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Vakanai
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Re: The United States in 2076

Post by Vakanai »

I voted "status quo" but with a couple caveats. First, we won't be the top player anymore but a top player, albeit a somewhat wild and unpredictable and ugly one. And also that while technically "kind of the same" it'll really be "the same sort of, but worse."
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