The United States in 2076

[Doozer]

Frankly, I see the United States going down the path of Rome in the next century or so.

I would see it more similar to what happened to England or France, USSR at worst.

Like breaking into smaller states?

[joe00uk]

Frankly, I see the United States going down the path of Rome in the next century or so.

I would see it more similar to what happened to England or France, USSR at worst.

There will likely be similarities to all of the above. Hopefully they can avoid getting some of Yugoslavia thrown into the mix, but I wouldn't bet on that. In terms of the Roman analogy, every empire in history rises, peaks and then declines until it no longer exists. But with the Roman empire, its fall marked the end of the entire civilisation it belonged to. Civilisations are wider than individual states and empires. What the Roman Empire belonged to was what we call Classical Civilisation, which had its beginnings as the Greek Dark Ages bottomed out around 750 BC after the fall of the Mycenaean Greek civilisation.

Likewise, the industrial civilisation that we live in today and has included empires as diverse as the British, the French, the Soviet Union and US hegemony began after the medieval Dark Ages bottomed out and gave way to the Renaissance. The wider civilisation we're part of now has included a great many states and empires. The fall of US hegemony, and the dissolution of the US itself, will just be one more imperial fall within industrial civilisation - just like the Soviet Union before it, and the various empires of Western Europe before that.

Like every other civilisation before it, our industrial civilisation will follow the same pattern of decline and fall (I would argue we're already well into the decline). I think that perhaps Chinese hegemony in the wake of US collapse may be the last great "empire" of industrial civilisation before whatever new Dark Age arrives, but it will be a very gradual fading out rather than waking up one day to find we're suddenly back to a world of feudal statelets. When the Roman Empire collapsed, its eastern half survived and kept many of the same political structures going for another millennium under the Byzantine Empire, even if it had a vastly reduced resource and technological base to work from. Perhaps something similar will happen with today's industrial civilisation. Even though the resources and technology we have today won't be there, maybe some of the political structures we have today will find some way to survive in some parts of the world for a long time to come - maybe including some attempts to recreate an American-style republic. Certainly, having been founded in the 18th Century, we know that can be done on a much lower budget than we've become accustomed to today.

[Cyber_Rebel]

54 years from now? No, can't really see it. If political instability doesn't end it, I imagine the climate crisis (technically related) most certainly will. I think balkanization along regional lines will be the result in the future, with the historical "Yankee" states representing the former culture of the US.

Here's an interesting map of what someone believes that could look like, based on historical precedent regarding the regional culture(s):

Welcome (Back) to the Divided States of America by Colin Woodward, author of Balkanized America

[wjfox]

I've been thinking about this again. How about the following options for a poll?

They are in decreasing order of "power", starting with an expansion and going down to complete collapse. If there's a majority for options 3 or 4 then I might do a second thread/poll, in which we can determine what those new territories might look like. I'll then write the prediction for our timeline.

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1. Expansion
The U.S. expands beyond its current borders, with Canada and/or Mexico being annexed or voluntarily unifying, either partially or fully.

2. Status quo
The U.S. remains largely the same as in 2022, with little or no change to its territory or unity.

3. Balkanisation
The U.S. becomes divided into two, or perhaps several independent regions (e.g. north and south, or coastal areas), each with its own government.

4. Extreme balkanisation
Severe political, economic, environmental or other turmoil has resulted in a breakdown of the U.S. into dozens or even hundreds of separate entities.

5. Total collapse
Climate change, war, and/or other existential threats are so catastrophic, the U.S. effectively no longer exists. Most or all of the country is in anarchy.

[joe00uk]

I've been thinking about this again. How about the following options for a poll?

Sounds good to me!

[weatheriscool]

3. Balkanisation
The U.S. becomes divided into two, or perhaps several independent regions (e.g. north and south, or coastal areas), each with its own government.

This is what happens when you let in tens of millions of people that don't value the founders, the constitution or the culture that formed and made the country successful. The germanic tribes sure didn't value the western portion of the roman empire 1,600 years ago. This is also why there's never going to be a world government or a borderless world as People want to be with their own people and will always form governments and societies around such concepts and drives. Nations are always successful when they're proud of who they're and people can agree towards a goal that favors them and them alone. Look at how successful China is today...it is 98% Han chinese.

There's 200 nations on this planet and we could add 20, 50 or even a 100 more as there's a hell of a lot of people throughout this world that want secession. Iraq could break up into 3 nations! Yemen could break up into 2, And America probably will break up into 2 or 3 as different groups with different opinions and loyalties gain power.

America has peaked and likely did so during the 1950's-1980's culturally and in tech advancements.

I know this is a very unpopular view on things as it goes against the view that we will all live together in peace and in a borderless world. But the truth is that is not going to happen. There will never be peace! There will never be a borderless world. At least as long as we're a tribal primate like species that don't value collective behavior or over our own pride and that of our own people or in group.

[raklian]

I won't care what happens to the US in 2076 because I'll be busy thriving, after being rejuvenated to a 20-something young adult again, in a brand-new, robot-built post-scarcity city-state bordering the Hudson Bay way up north where the climate is similar to what northern USA is today.

[SerethiaFalcon]

It isn't just immigration populations that can drastically change a nation's culture, though. If you have a huge population of ex-pats/adults who have lived in a different country than their own for an extended period of time, their children will largely not be a hundred percent loyal to their home country, from my personal experience. Some will even hate their home country while still living within its borders. Regardless, the greatest change to culture is brought through technology, from my observation. Also, the US was founded through migration and exploitation, so the only constant in the US is change. It is not surprising that it continues to shift and morph with the fluctuations in migration patterns.

[Tadasuke]

I vote for Status quo.

[wjfox]

Right, I've added a poll. I'd be really grateful if you'd all vote. Thanks.