Everything is not getting worse

Discuss the evolution of human culture, economics and politics in the decades and centuries ahead
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funkervogt
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by funkervogt »

unfortunately i suffered a drastic misunderstanding in how some ancient civilizations were complex similarly to ours
Which ones?
we are different in that we've been able to rely on fossil fuels and other inventions to keep us afloat, but how long are non-renewable energy sources are going to last at this rate?
Fossil fuel reserves are large enough to last as long as the world needs them. There's broad consensus that global oil consumption levels will plateau by the middle of this century before starting a gradual decline. Some even believe "Peak Oil Demand" will happen before 2030.
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/busin ... prices.pdf

At least in the U.S., natural gas demand will peak, possibly before the end of this decade, because renewables are getting cheaper.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020 ... mand-peak/

The amount of coal reserves is massive. It could last hundreds of years, though the environmental consequences would be very bad.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/coa ... s-left.php

I recommend reading the most recent posts from this website about recent improvements to solar and wind power. If they don't make you optimistic about the future of energy, nothing will.
https://rameznaam.com/blog/
Tadasuke
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by Tadasuke »

You are not going to convince me that things are getting worse, because my interest in futurism is to alleviate my depression and anxiety, not to further them. If I took your point of view, I would have to kill myself, because there is no point of waiting for a better tomorrow. I dislike the present, therefore the only encouragement is to live to see a better future, where I can finally be happy. I think that definitely most things are getting better, not worse.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
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MythOfProgress
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by MythOfProgress »

Tadasuke wrote: Sat Apr 02, 2022 7:57 am You are not going to convince me that things are getting worse, because my interest in futurism is to alleviate my depression and anxiety, not to further them. If I took your point of view, I would have to kill myself, because there is no point of waiting for a better tomorrow. I dislike the present, therefore the only encouragement is to live to see a better future, where I can finally be happy. I think that definitely most things are getting better, not worse.
ok, i'm sorry if i come across as being too negative. if you are struggling with mental health issues or what im saying causes you distress you probably shouldn't listen to me anymore from now on, so look out for yourself- you matter more then you realize. i hope you get better with time and find other ways of being able to deal with your depression/anxiety, peace man.
R.I.P Ziba.
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MythOfProgress
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by MythOfProgress »

Which ones?
ancient china, Greeks, Egyptians, Mayans and the Romans are some of the more notable examples that come to mind, Ancient China and whatnot with the printing press and gunpowder they utilized, Greeks with their sophisticated architecture, Egyptians and the notable pyramids they've built(while we do know of several ways that the could have built them, if i remember correctly most historians still haven't settled on one), Mayans with advanced agricultural techniques they used and the Ancient Romans with the aqueducts they used which made for easier public sanitation practices. keep in mind these are only just a few examples of the technologies they were able to develop at the time.
Fossil fuel reserves are large enough to last as long as the world needs them. There's broad consensus that global oil consumption levels will plateau by the middle of this century before starting a gradual decline. Some even believe "Peak Oil Demand" will happen before 2030.
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/busin ... prices.pdf
At least in the U.S., natural gas demand will peak, possibly before the end of this decade, because renewables are getting cheaper.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020 ... mand-peak/
yeah no, that's not happening anytime soon, as far as im concerned while renewable energies are a nice part of fighting against the energy crisis we have rested on our hands they are not even close to fulfilling most of the energy demands we have(which are only projected to increase as more advanced technologies come to light) considering the low energy efficiency, intermittent power generation and the fact that they are weather-dependent(which means in some days if the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing you might get little to no energy as a result) which makes for an inconsistent and unreliable source of energy. even with all the "improvements" you've mentioned, there's the other little problem of scaling it up and having the necessary materials(like lithium, the stuff they retrieve in cobalt mines), as building solar panels/farms and wind turbines require an extensive amount of space and resources to expend(never-mind the fact that you are still using fossil fuels to manufacture, transport and install these panels) .there's nuclear energy where we've made some decent amount of progress but still haven't solved the age-old problem of getting more energy out of it than you're putting in- which for the most part still eludes us. this old link explains better then i why they aren't going to help, at least not drastically. https://archive.ph/8P6ju
The amount of coal reserves is massive. It could last hundreds of years, though the environmental consequences would be very bad.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/coa ... s-left.php
wow, that's a huge understatement, it wouldn't just be "very bad", we are talking about a catastrophic level of damage done to the atmosphere. the way you say this makes it seem as if we live separately from the environment and won't be impacted by the consequences you speak of.
R.I.P Ziba.
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R8Z
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by R8Z »

funkervogt wrote: Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:17 pm This is a crucial idea to keep in mind when reading The Great Stagnation:
To get one misconception out of the way first: “stagnation” does not mean zero progress. No one is claiming that. There wasn’t zero progress even before the Industrial Revolution (or the civilizations of Europe and Asia would have looked no different in 1700 than they did in the days of nomadic hunter-gatherers, tens of thousands of years ago).

Stagnation just means slower progress. And not even slower than that pre-industrial era, but slower than, roughly, the late 1800s to mid-1900s, when growth rates are said to have peaked.
It's also useful to remember whenever you debate pessimists who are confusing a slowdown in progress in some area with a decline in that area.
I have finished reading the book this last weekend and the silver-lining I take from it is that the "low hanging fruit for development" argument is a solid one, at least it has convinced me to some extent. i.e. it it is a strong factor but not the whole picture of our modern world development path.

In other words, what the author says and what I agree with is that we are still progressing although in a slower speed. This is something that goes against my intuition as I am one of the privileged ones to have been highly benefited from the progress of the internet and the global connectivity, something that the author highlights that has not been for everyone.
Maybe I am just eating the low hanging fruits myself here in the 3rd world: for instance, my own company is completely based on remote working and global work; that's something I've been able to leverage for my own benefit and for my employees which makes me lucky to be able to afford to my employees amounts that reach 5x the local salary for similar positions due to that (and still taking a profit for myself with smiles all around, including for the ones paying these values).

Anyway, as the author highlights, there are still many low hanging fruits for developing countries to catch by basically following the footsteps of 1st world countries. I am looking for more as well to both develop my own region and provide to friends (employees) but also to get richer (and maybe happier?) myself. One step at a time to achieve a more equal world. :)

Here are some of the quotations from "The Great Stagnation (2011)" I've saved while reading, just to add to the thread (my GDP concerns from my early post were addressed):
[...] the marginal value of added government, even if positive, falls as government grows larger. This statement is not antigovernment; it's just common sense.
The larger the percentage of government consumption in the economy, the harder it is to tell exactly how well we are doing in real economic growth and living standards.
Have realistic expectations. We are living in "the new normal".
And, as always, bye bye.
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Cyber_Rebel
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by Cyber_Rebel »

Feel like questions such as these are always relative, i.e., it's easy to do what @MOP is doing and fall into the trap of human pessimism if one does not remove their personal experiences from the overall picture.

Yes, even with the threat of war, climate crisis, and economic upheaval we're still much better off today than in the past. I also do not believe there has been any better point for historically disenfranchised groups like women & minorities than the current era. Some countries have shitty policies which feel as if progress is being rolled back or stagnated, but they are the exception. Bad outcomes still happen around the world, but we are improving the ways in which we respond and deal with them.

Technology and increased access to knowledge has without doubt improved our lives and will continue to make living better. This may have been posted already, but doing so again since it's relevant:

23 charts and maps that show the world is getting much, much better
These are bleak times — but a lot of things are improving.
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MythOfProgress
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by MythOfProgress »

Feel like questions such as these are always relative, i.e., it's easy to do what @MOP is doing and fall into the trap of human pessimism if one does not remove their personal experiences from the overall picture.
like i said, nothing relative about the economy going through another recession or coral reefs bleaching, haven't really mentioned anything about my own personal experiences and even then it wouldn't really matter-but life's mostly been good where im at-which is what makes things all the more tragic having to realize this in the midst of a pandemic.
Yes, even with the threat of war, climate crisis, and economic upheaval we're still much better off today than in the past
lol you really think so? in the past when a civilization collapsed it didn't mean global destabilization or near-term human extinction, it mostly just meant a reset/restart(im probably simplifying it too much and making it seem a lot less terrifying but whatevs) compared to what we're facing nowadays- which is a whole myriad of environmental, political and societal issues that pretty much threaten our existence. there's one good analogy for it that comes from this article (https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2019 ... n-collapse), "Think of civilisation as a poorly-built ladder. As you climb, each step that you used falls away. A fall from a height of just a few rungs is fine. Yet the higher you climb, the larger the fall. Eventually, once you reach a sufficient height, any drop from the ladder is fatal."
I also do not believe there has been any better point for historically disenfranchised groups like women & minorities than the current era. Some countries have shitty policies which feel as if progress is being rolled back or stagnated, but they are the exception. Bad outcomes still happen around the world, but we are improving the ways in which we respond and deal with them.
when it comes to White-Anglo-Saxon-Protestant America, sure- we definitely don't have anymore gentrification, redlining policies or incarceration rates that serve to keep black communities downtrodden(https://sites.psu.edu/jjscivicissues/20 ... s-effects/) or the latest in anti-lgbt+ bills that are being passed in states like alabama, texas and florida(https://abcnews.go.com/US/alabama-legis ... d=83940764, (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... -ideology/).

dunno if i'd say 71 countries is the exception(https://www.humandignitytrust.org/lgbt- ... alisation/), far from it and if the past paragraph indicates; there are special interest groups in the US that are dead-set in their efforts to keep the aforementioned minorities downtrodden and roll back what little progress has been made. you might be right in that the US is an oasis(to some extent) for those who aren't of the typical kind, but history has shown that these rights for minorities have to be constantly fought for, engaged with and renewed, otherwise it's the same result in most autocratic countries. considering the resurgence in fascism and reactionary thought we are starting to experience, i think it's safe to say we will most likely see a lot more focused attacks(be it physical, emotional, financial or mental) and apathy towards these minorities.
Technology and increased access to knowledge has without doubt improved our lives and will continue to make living better. This may have been posted already, but doing so again since it's relevant:
not gonna argue that technology has made our lives more convenient and a little easier, but the more knowledge we acquire the more the gaps in our knowledge expand as a result, it's not some linear straight-shot to a better future like most here tend to imagine but a constant series of bumbling steps and falling down in our pursuit of "knowledge.".
Last edited by MythOfProgress on Mon Apr 11, 2022 5:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
R.I.P Ziba.
Nero
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by Nero »

It's fairly obvious at this stage that the future is clearly superior to the past. If you were fortunate enough to be born in the year 2022 the difference in quality of life between yourself and someone born 100 years before you, even into unbelievable wealth and power is almost inconceivable. Things clearly improve even if they do so in a way that is mostly unnoticeable in short amounts of time.
Tadasuke
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by Tadasuke »

At the same time, I heard that trains in Britain in 1840s went at a similar speed to trains in Russia today. But of course, there were no trains in Russia then.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
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MythOfProgress
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by MythOfProgress »

It's fairly obvious at this stage that the future is clearly superior to the past.
Debatable, please elaborate further on this statement. I genuinely would like to know why it's "obvious".
If you were fortunate enough to be born in the year 2022 the difference in quality of life between yourself and someone born 100 years before you, even into unbelievable wealth and power is almost inconceivable.
You know- in a sense you are definitely right, our quality of life is exceptionally different compared to someone else from 100 years ago however i doubt its for the right reasons that we're on the same page. Fortunate for who again? I mean, there is a reason why they refer to generation-z as the last letter in the alphabet and it's not for fun- im just trying to wrap my head around how being born on a dying planet is somehow "fortunate"?
Things clearly improve even if they do so in a way that is mostly unnoticeable in short amounts of time.
Then I suppose the inverse is true, things clearly deteriorate even if they do so in a way that is mostly unnoticeable in short amounts of time, this also reinforces the notion of biosphere collapse being a process, not necessarily an event. the Anthropocene period is coming to an end, most likely sometime during this century or the next. just enjoy whatever life you got left, eh?
R.I.P Ziba.
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