Everything is not getting worse

[Nero]

I'm going to reply to your two questions separately.

First, there is absolutely no debate as to whether any aspect of general life is superior to life even 70 years ago. To state the obvious, people born in 2022 are not considered to be the last letter of the alphabet. They are considered to be the first. There is nothing about the world of 1922 or 1982 that people would genuinely believe was better in the first time.

The further we get away from any specific time, the more people agree that they would rather be born at a later time if both are sufficiently historical it becomes clear. Someone living in the year 2010 would not have enjoyed having to live a life of someone in 1980. Someone born in the generation alpha as privileged as it may be is not going to be enviable for someone born 40 years later.

The future has never not been a superior place to live than the past - the rate of how many years in the past you have to travel before you reach a time that most people in the time you came from would not prefer to live in has actually decreased. The people of the 1990's may have been somewhat willing to live in the 1960's. The people of the 2020's would not be willing to live in the 90's, the difference is larger, the quality of life on average much higher, the technology in particular being of significant difference. That would never be the general consensus if things had only improved marginally, the people born in the year 1810 or 1840 would not have noticed much change in their general lives if they did have to live in the earlier decade.

[Member]

just enjoy whatever civilization you got left, eh?

Correct.

[MythOfProgress]

First, there is absolutely no debate as to whether any aspect of general life is superior to life even 70 years ago. To state the obvious, people born in 2022 are not considered to be the last letter of the alphabet. They are considered to be the first. There is nothing about the world of 1922 or 1982 that people would genuinely believe was better in the first time.

in this case, i actually did mean to go with gen-z, not alpha considering most of them won't(or don't in general) have much of a concept of what it is to live a good life once irreversible climate change and other environmental catastrophes sets in, though that's my fault for not clarifying further. anyways, i think the entire notion that "things are better"(im a broken record at this point) should be done away with entirely, you can't see the forest for the trees if you're thinking that with a few decades, we've somehow "changed" and made "improvements", even as we are in similar positions of being part of a shrinking middle class/suffering lower class and having a few gadgets to distract ourselves with, to which we call "progress". to anyone who lives in developing countries, your point is moot- hell anyone who lives in a developed country(like the US of A) can still see through the BS that's being perpetuated, the quality of life is "better" and yet suicide rates have gone up higher than ever as this pandemic rages on, deaths of despair becoming more common, fascism is making a return and we are experiencing the sixth mass extinction(one we've engineered ourselves).

The further we get away from any specific time, the more people agree that they would rather be born at a later time if both are sufficiently historical it becomes clear. Someone living in the year 2010 would not have enjoyed having to live a life of someone in 1980. Someone born in the generation alpha as privileged as it may be is not going to be enviable for someone born 40 years later.

to me this is more of a speculative statement(if you have actual data, i'd like to see), so i dunno if i'd say much other then everyone's different, and that the 1980s and the 2010s aren't that different, sure you could factor in the internet not existing(at least not in the widespread version, accessible to the public), but for the most part standards of living were mostly the same. anyone born in generation alpha is definitely not privileged, lmao i dont know where you're getting that idea from, social mobility as a tangible concept has grown more elusive as the years go by.https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... obility-us, (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/11/ ... inequality), (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/ ... economics/)

[erowind]

I haven't read the whole thread, so it's unkown to me whether MythOfProgress is the sort of ecologically aware person I'd keep company with or not. Not to discount what they're saying, I just genuinely don't know and the line is pretty cut down the middle between the malthusian/fatalist ecologically aware people and the other folks who are trying to build something constructive out of this absolute dumpster fire of a societial collapse like myself.

Nevertheless it is nice to see some discussion that's really cutting in at the issue instead of just blindly spouting buzzwords about speculative technology as a solution in the face of a culture that already has technological solutions and simply chooses not to pursue them.

All said, I want to say that the idea that people in the future are happy to be born in the future in context of the past doesn't make sense to me on this timescale. There may truly come a day when society has genuinely moved on from these conditions of suffering we experience. Hopefully in our lifetimes, but it very well could be in 10,000+ years all the same. That in context, civilization waxes and wanes throughout history and has since it came to be about 12,000 years ago or so.

We may very well be on the precipice of the most intense period of civilizational decline in human history, some argue we've already crossed the tipping point. If that were the world we're facing, consider how someone living in the shadow of former empires may feel hundreds of years after they fall. Will people in 400 years look at the ruins of our skyscrapers with envy or pity? Another perspective may say that people living a sufficiently isolated and ecologically connected life far from the hearts of urban and rural societies have been living the better life for a very long time and continue to. Think of a sage on the mountains or a small village hundreds of miles from the nearest cities and even remote compared to rural farmers.

I personally think that the future has the potential to be better, that our human condition may change and that optimistic statement may be true one day. But as of today it's more mixed, and depending on who you ask you'll get a different answer because the quality of life for different people in differing socioeconomic conditions is different.

[Nero]

People living in generation alpha will know greater bounty than any generation that has ever existed on this Earth. The generation that follows them will likely know even greater bounty, this is not new, the rate of change is increasing as someone who lived in the year 1700 may not have noticed much of a difference in their daily life at all if they were to live in 1730 or 1740.

Humans alive in the year 1880 would certainly notice the difference in their day to day lives if they were to be transferred to the year 1920. This rate of change has only gotten steeper the further forward in time you look, the 1960's were a considerably better time to live than the 1920's, the 2000's a considerably better time to be alive than the 60's and the 2040's are somehow going to become worse than this? Very unlikely.

In era where human technology advances that at the speed and rate it does, most people will be wary of any prediction for the future beyond that 30 year boundary with much accuracy. However I see no evidence that the general quality of life has any realistic chance of being lower than it is today for the people that are fortunate enough to experience that time. Their medical technology will with certainty be greater than anything we can achieve today as will their ability to generate energy, through whatever means. Climate change will undeniably effect them but to a enough of a degree that they cannot in turn adapt or overcome whatever that effect is would be something I seriously doubt.

There is likely no amount of wealth any human can possess today in 2022 that would allow them to experience things that the people half a century or longer from today will do regardless of status or wealth. This does not mean they will not face hardships or that there are not going to be aspects of their society that are flawed, they will as every generation of humans on this Earth that preceded them have their own problems and societal issues. Their world will be an improvement on ours as ours is an improvement on what came before yet still faces challenges and hardships.

[Lilymoon]

Well I have not read all the replies but you do have to release that science and technology does not make a person good.

The history of world is killings, war, torture, greed, power, wealth, corruption and the Bible talks about this. And on other hand money, wealth and capitalism makes good person a evil person.

The world is run by the 1% that own 60% of the world wealth and you know that large billion dollar companies and financial institutions they set out the rules. How is small or medium businesses to compete unless they have dirty tactics like no sick pay, no vacation, 10 to 12 hour shifts, lucky if you make one dollar in hour.

Than you have both parties that allow big companies to buy out small and medium businesses.

In real world political lobbying would be illegal, donation would be illegal, interests groups illegal, more direct democracy than representative democracy, desensitized government, people in government that should make no more than $40,000 a year and live in middle class house not some 4 million dollar home or more. Not a disconnect of I’m a politician and I just live in area with the elite and my view of the world is different

And strong monopoly laws and fix the education system.

With out this the future is looking like a bad cyberpunk future.

[RupertR]

Looked through the thread, and I think I also have something to say. Well, If we look through the whole history of us as Homo Sapiens Sapiens species or the history of human civilization, things are actually getting better. The life expectancy has been gradually raised, we learned how to cure or at least control lot's of medical conditions which were lethal for a very long time. We've even eliminated smallpox as well as 2 of 3 types of polio. And so on and so on. Actually our development is not even linear, it's exponential. According to the current crisis. This is not the first crisis and nor a first war, and sadly not the last. Not the first epidemic, probably the most world wide, you know we've developed our transport connections since then..
What I want to say, every time every crisis is felt by majority of it's witnesses as completely new and unique, the worst that has been ever happened to them, probably even the end of the world. Yes, every crisis is unprecedented, but if you look back at the previous ones, and remember your own feelings or feeling of your elder relatives if you are young enough, fears of that times, and compare it with what was really happening with us after. Well, sometimes I think that this is the way how we, humanity actually develops.
So no matter what happens our journey continues. It may not be always bright nor always dark but trust me - it's an interesting journey and it worth taking.

[Lilymoon]

And I’m not sure about wind power, solar power, water power so on.

CNN or the green party will say the technology is matured that we can do away with fossil fuels and switch to wind power, solar power, water power so on. Well FOX news like to say wind power, solar power, water power cannot keep up with demand and cannot replace the demand there is now.

So you are stuck in the middle and do not know who to believe at all. Well obvious the conservative party and conservative news is going to be very pro fossil fuels and anti non fossil fuels.

And they are normally the one going on about wind power, solar power, water power so on is not matured enough to replace energy demands today that alone future energy demands.

So you don’t know who to believe at all.

Than there is also the throw away culture where you buy new computer and new smartphone every 3 to 5 years. Than the company making repairable and upgradable to deal with e-waste problems. Where it seems the government is passing laws to make it easier for companies to make proprietary parts and soldering of RAM slots and glueing batteries to the board. Well companies keep pushing by new computer and new smartphone every three years. Than just updating the RAM and battery.

[Lilymoon]

According to the current crisis. This is not the first crisis and nor a first war, and sadly not the last. Not the first epidemic, probably the most world wide, you know we've developed our transport connections since then..
What I want to say, every time every crisis is felt by majority of it's witnesses as completely new and unique, the worst that has been ever happened to them, probably even the end of the world.

I think some of the people in this thread have this doom and gloom is war is very different today than in the past.

Well yes in past humans have always been war like but there was no nukes. When you look at Putin saying if the west steps in he will use nukes and saying with out Russia there is no point for the world to go living well tells me his mental state.

And information coming out that USSR had to talk Mao Zedong down that said it would been better to nuke the world.

Even more troubling, he seemed to welcome a nuclear holocaust as a means of promoting communism worldwide. At one point, Mao confided to Indian prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru: “If the worst came to the worst and half of mankind died, the other half would remain while imperialism would be razed to the ground and the whole world would become socialist; in a number of years there would be 2,700 million people again and definitely more.” This was not the only time Mao made such an argument. Little wonder, then, that both the United States and the Soviet Union seriously considered launching a preventative attack on China’s nuclear program.

And the Cuban criss that came very close to nuclear war the only difference at the time was Putin and Mao was not in charge but USSR communist party members that realized a nuclear war will not help Russia.

Than you get countries like Iran and Afghanistan that may use nuclear war over religious reasons or any other country that makes nukes for religious reasons. Than you got North Korea similar to Putin.

So in way the world is more dangerous today than in the past. Where in the past there was no nukes.

[MythOfProgress]

In response to the article you posted(@cyber_rebel), these are some of my points:

1) Extreme poverty has fallen

i've already responded to this, check my comment that responds to @funkervogt and the fact that it details the $1.90 mark of being a poor way of evaluating poverty. nevermind that, even the article itself says "That’s a low bar for what counts as poverty, and some development experts argue we should be using a global poverty line of $10-15 a day instead".

2) Hunger is falling

Not according to this report by the World Economic Forum(https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/ ... on-report/), which pretty much clarifies this "...Added to this are conflicts, violence and “altered weather conditions.” And then there’s pests – such as locust swarms, which could leave millions at risk of starvation this year..." and this(https://theecologist.org/2020/aug/21/cl ... bal-hunger) explaining the effects of climate change on hunger and food insecurity"...As the planet warms, extreme weather events are becoming more common and more severe. Droughts, floods and other extreme weather events damage infrastructure and housing — as well as agriculture..."

3) Child labor is on the decline

The ongoing pandemic unfortunately has turned this around, the U.S Department of Labor released its report and according to it, child labor is due to rise and see 8 million more children resort to labor(or being forced to by external circumstances). (https://blog.dol.gov/2021/09/29/3-ways- ... hild-labor), (https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/c ... wo-decades).

4) People in developed countries have more leisure time

And yet i have a hard time believing this, considering the fact that it was initially promised that technology(more precisely automation) would lower the amount of work humans would need to do, make it so that people would be able to live like something close to the Jetsons future and enjoy time with family, yet this hasn't been the case. our productivity has only increased since the late 20th century, people are approhacing job burnout faster than ever, especially with the pandemic and any jobs that could be considered essential being affected by it- people are leaving in droves(teachers, doctors/nurses, truck drivers etc). (https://20somethingfinance.com/american ... -vacation/),(https://www.apa.org/monitor/2022/01/spe ... out-stress).

5) The share of income spent on food has plummeted in the US

With inflation looking the way it does right now as with the future of the economy most likely being in shambles, i will say that this is a probably short-lived phenomenon, that will definitely come to bite whoever makes that statement in the ass.

6) Life expectancy is rising

considering this article was posted sometime back in 2018, this one at least deserves a pass seeing as how it couldn't have foresaw the impacts of COVID-19 on life expectancy rates, that being said, even then in 2018 this is a statement you can't really take at face value, the climate crisis as well as existing wealth inequalities have only ensured a decline in life expectancy rates.

7) Child mortality is down

My answer to the third statement(the one about decline of child labor)pretty much means we are more likely to see an uptick in deaths, not a decrease.

9) People have been getting taller for centuries

lol seriously? a sign of things getting better is that we're taller? this has as much causality as me farting and killing someone with that particular fart. get real.

10) More people have access to malaria bednets

while this might not be related directly, im pretty sure antibiotic resistence is going to start becoming more common as the years go by, i wouldn't be too surprised if drug-resistant malaria started to occur which will definitely lead to more deaths as people try to treat us with the medicines they have in mind, the things that have got us here in the first place.

14) In the long term, homicide rates have fallen dramatically
15) In the short term, they’re down in the US, too
16) Violent crime in the US is going down

heavy emphasis on long and short-term ones, problem is political instability has become a lot worse off since 1/6 happened, with a lot more extremist activities out in the wood work, mass shootings that have been perpetuated by gunmen who have warped ideals from far-right ideologies, its doubtful from where i am standing that it will stay down.

17) We’ve rapidly reduced the supply of nuclear weapons
Nuclear armaments from 1945 to 2018

and yet we still maintain them for fear of the other side launching missiles to which i say; the complete disarmament of nuclear weapons will never happen so long as there's always a potential for a country to launch one of their own. it's just basic game theory, no millitary is going to strip themselves completely of the one thing that remains their ace in the hole.

18) More people in the world live in a democracy now

considering trump's almost-successful attempt at overturning the election results on 1/6, i will say that this is a country that is still dictated and based on white supremacist, christian nationalist, jingoistic ideals, which means there is always a chance for it to become an authoritarian place. like i said before, and i'll say it again, people will become more reactionary as issues like the climate crisis and inequality drag on and can't be any longer. people will settle for simple solutions to complex problems because that's just the way we are.

21) Moore’s law isn’t quite over yet

again, the law of diminishing returns pretty much makes this impossible, not to mention the fact that even the article itself agrees the physical limitations may have already been met in terms of fitting transistors on chips. the limits to growth book would tell you that we are more likely to experience an exponential decline, not another exponential growth like we have with the industrial revolution, we've already spread out and expanded our windows of operations with that one chance, we've peaked already, there is no more "growth" to be had because we've already done so, we've used up our resources and the one chance we had at developing things sustainably(at least relatively and even then, it's a hard if).

23) Solar energy is getting cheaper

like i said before, solar energy is not even close to filling in as a major substitute for the oil, gas and coal we use daily in our lives, it's not as energy-dense and as capable of constant storage/use when it comes to energy like the non-renewable sources i've mentioned, not to mention the costs associated in developing solar panels and other products that may rely on fossil fuels, transport, manufacturing and procuring them of course.